Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. April 2, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on April 2, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports Positive Low Positive Low NDX Positive Low Positive Low S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Negative High CRB Index Positive Low Positive Low Gold Negative High Negative Low XAU Negative High Negative High Dollar Positive Low Negative Low Bonds Negative High Positive High Crude Oil Positive Low Positive Low Unleaded Positive Low Positive Low Natural Gas Positive Low Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Formation of a Weekly Swing High CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. April 2, 2019 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy/Neutral Formation of a Daily Swing Low Slow New High/New Low Differential McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The price action on Friday completed the formation of a daily swing low on the Industrials, which was confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators and in doing so, a short-term buy signal was triggered. More strength followed on Monday and Tuesday was an inside day. This advance has carried price to overbought levels in association with what should be the final leg up into the trading cycle top. The timing band for the trading cycle low runs through April 12th, so every indication is that we have seen an additional push up into the trading cycle top and this overbought condition should be followed by the decline into the trading cycle low. This additional advance also finally triggered short-term buy signals in most all other Equity related indexes and averages, but there too, it looks as if this has been an additional probe up in conjunction with the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top that has been trying to take hold for a month now. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 5

4 The short-term sell signal in Gold remains intact and ideally the trading cycle low should still lie ahead. The short-term sell signal on the XAU also remains intact and we have another intermediate-term sell signal in the making. With Gold just now moving into the early side of the timing band for the low and with the oscillators not yet having moved to oversold levels, further weakness into the trading cycle lows in both Gold and the XAU should ideally still lie ahead. More on this once swing lows are seen. As with Equities, Friday s short-term buy signal in Crude Oil left it positioned for further strength, which we have seen. But, also as with Equities, the intermediate-term cycle top is due and this should be an ending move into the trading cycle top. But, until another short-term sell signal is triggered this short-term buy signal will remain in force and until a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI is seen the intermediate-term cycle top in Crude Oil is still not yet. The expectation has been and continues to be for it to peak in close proximity with Equities. The short-term buy signal in the Dollar remains intact and the evidence continues to be suggestive of a slightly early trading cycle low. This remains an important juncture for the Dollar and we must now see the current trading cycle advance unfold with a right-translated structure. Otherwise, it will leave the Dollar positioned for further weakness into the seasonal cycle low. We should be over this hurdle in the Dollar within the next week. The short-term sell signal in the 30-year Bond remains intact and Bonds should now be approaching the trading cycle low. Yield on the 3 and 5-year Bond ticked back down slightly on Tuesday and this too, is suggestive of the trading cycle low in Bonds and a resumption of the trend with lower rates. I will cover more on interest rates in the April letter, which will be out sometime Sunday. Below is our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which ticked back down on Tuesday. In doing so, this is an indication that the latest short-term advance should be at or near an end. The continuing weakening of the green and the black MA lines is reflective of the intermediate-term cycle top. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 6

5 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains positive as does the Momentum indicator. The stochastic in the middle window has moved to overbought levels, which makes conditions ripe for a top. I have explained that the trading cycle low should still lie ahead and once another daily swing high is seen and confirmed by a downturn of these indicators and the triggering of a short-term sell signal, the decline into the trading cycle low should be underway. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/ New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has ticked back down. The Trend Indicator has turned slightly above its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, the trading cycle top should be close at hand, but Friday s short-term buy signal will remain intact until another daily swing high is formed and confirmed by a downturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 8

7 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator remain marginally above their trigger lines. However, the overall oscillator behavior continues to be reflective of the trading and what should also ideally prove to be the intermediate-term cycle top as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 9

8 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index continue ticking up, but overall the behavior here is also suggestive of the intermediate-term cycle top. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator remains above its trigger line, which makes it positive as we use it. That said, it also ticked down on Tuesday, which is again indicative of the trading cycle top. A cross back below the trigger line should serve to confirm the decline into the trading cycle low has begun and that the intermediate-term cycle top has been seen. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 10

9 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which remains above its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 11

10 The Accumulation/Distribution Index ticked down on Tuesday, which is suggestive of this last push nearing its end. A cross back below the trigger line should be indicative of the trading cycle top. In summary, Friday s short-term buy signal has been followed by further strength into what should have been an ending move into the trading and intermediate-term cycle tops. Once a short-term sell signal is triggered and another weekly swing high is completed, these tops should be in place. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 12

11 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy/Neutral Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The March 27th short-term sell signal remains intact. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between April 2nd and April 26th and with price now having moved into the early side of this window, once a daily swing low and upturn of the daily CTI is seen, the trading cycle low should be in place. That said, the oscillators have not yet been pulled to oversold levels, so further weakness into the trading cycle low should ideally follow. At a higher level, more confirmation of the seasonal cycle top is needed, but until Gold can prove otherwise, the assumption will continue to be that the higher degree seasonal cycle advance out of the August low has run its course. The intermediate-term cycle low is due with either the recent trading cycle low or the next. More on that once we see what the structure of this trading cycle yields, but current evidence suggests that the intermediate-term cycle low was seen in conjunction with the last trading cycle low and that we now have a failed and left-translated intermediate-term cycle in the making. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 13

12 Our daily chart of the XAU is next and here too, the short-term sell signal and decline into the trading cycle low remains intact. The price action this week has also put a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI into motion which means that we also have an intermediate-term sell signal in the making. Any shortterm advance from here should ideally prove to be counter-trend and if nothing changes by Friday, we will have another intermediate-term sell signal in place. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 14

13 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic The previously triggered short-term buy signal remains intact and the assumption continues to be that the March 20th daily swing low marked the trading cycle low. We still need to get through the remainder of the timing band for this low, which runs through April 9th, but at this point it is unlikely that the trading cycle low hasn t been seen. With regard to the higher degree intermediate-term cycle, we need to see this trading cycle advance unfold with a right-translated structure. To see otherwise, would be indicative of the intermediate-term cycle top. This advance is short-term overbought, which does make conditions ripe for a top, but this short-term buy signal will stand until another daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen and any weakness from here should ideally now be counter-trend. A daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if is not bettered and if is violated. More on this as it develops. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 15

14 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Friday s short-term sell signal did in fact cap the trading cycle top and the decline into the trading cycle low remains intact. The timing band for the pending trading cycle low runs between March 22nd and April 12th. Ideally this decline should pull the oscillators a little further down, but once a daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI, this low should be in place. Based on the higher degree intermediate-term and seasonal cycle low, higher prices should then follow in the wake of the pending trading cycle low. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 16

15 Crude Oil Per the weekend update, we knew that Friday s short-term buy signal left Crude Oil positioned to move higher, which it has. As with Equities, we know that the intermediate-term cycle top is due, but as I have said over and again, until a short-term sell signal is triggered and followed by the completion of a weekly swing high that is confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI, the intermediate-term turn is not yet. The expectation also continues to be for both Crude Oil and Equities to peak in close proximity with each other. But, for now, this short-term buy signal will stand until another daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen. A daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if is not bettered and if is violated Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 17