Intelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/28/ 19
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- Austen Murphy
- 5 years ago
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1 Elliot Wave Updates Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a step 2: A move below SPX (last Thursday s low) will be the 2 nd clue that a top has been struck is still needed to further suggest SPX2814 was major-1/a. For now, short term it appears a triangel is forming (dotted purple lines). This is typical for a 4 th wave and should resolve it self with a move higher: wave-5. A break above SPX2804 will most likely confirm this move. Figure 1: SPX hourly chart: 4 th wave triangle forming? 1 Page
2 The alternate remains of course that major-1/a has already topped at SPX2834, and major-2/a is underway to ideally between SPX ( %) after which major-3/a takes hold to ATHs. But we still can t be sure until the Bears accomplish the aforementioned steps 2 and 3: a close below SPX2764 and below SPX2731; respectively. Figure 2. SPX hourly chart: Major-1/a completed at SPX2814, but Bears need to see price move below SPX2764 first. 2 Page
3 To reiterate, also the Dow Jones (DJIA) can still support one more wave (wave-9) higher to complete an impulse using daily red closes as waves. But as said before, there are enough scribbles in place already to count wave-1/a as complete, so please know upside is of course limited. Figure 3. DJIA daily chart: Major-1/a could have completed on Monday right at resistance and Fib-extensions, but Bears need to see price move below the wave-6 low first to tell price is now making lower lows. 3 Page
4 Similarly, the RUT can still also make another up move in case we had a subdividing 3 rd wave (alt: 1,2,3,4) which means wave-iii is in and wave-iv still underway. To be followed by a wave-v to complete the impulse up. This count would fit well with the daily RSI5 in which wave-3 of iii had max momentum. But, also here, a move below last Thursday s low will be a serious first warning as then the index is making a lower low. Figure 4. RUT daily chart: Can also still support one more wave higher, but a break and close below last Thursday s low is a serious first warning the uptrend off the December low has ended. 4 Page
5 The technical indicators continue to deteriorate, as now the MACD gave a sell signal, it s first since late December, while the daily A.I. almost has a confirmed sell signal, but not yet. Nonetheless, the Bears still need. a move and close below SPX2775 (lower end of resistance and the lower dotted red trendline)... which will open up a retest of the 200d SMA, which will likely not hold as that much off a pullback will confirm major-2/a is underway. Thus, as long as price remains above SPX2775: still no cigar for the Bears. And, a move above SPX2804 can then still unlock as high as SPX2875, which would fulfill the pennant pattern, but I would be more conservative and aim for SPX2840ish. Figure 5. SPX Daily chart Initial A.I. sell signal moving closer to confirmation, MACD sell signal, but (trendline) support holding. Break and close below SPX2775 still needed to deteriorate the chart further and attack the 200d SMA. 5 Page
6 Market Breadth Market breadth as per the McClellan Oscillators (MO) declined for its 4 th consecutive day and is now negative for three of the five MO s I track for the first time since December 31. Hence, the Bulls are slowly losing the needed strength; indicative of the final stages of this rally. As said before Not a healthy sign. The NAMO closed below its lower Bollinger Band (BB) again, which could signal a renewed (snap back) rally; especially, and also, since its stochastic oscillator as well as that of the SPXMO have reached 0: see Figure 6. Figure 6. NAMO negative for the first time since December 31 and closed below its lower Bollinger Band while its stochastic oscillators and that of the SPXMO are at 0: a snap back rally can be expected within typically 1-2 days. The 1 min TICK registered no >+800 peak and no <-800 peak today (max +714, min -639), thus no real selling today. Again yesterday s equities only put/call ratio (CPCE) of 0.54, correctly foretold today s lower price as CPCE readings below during this rally- have consistently resulted in prices below the signal s day closing price one to three days later. Today it closed at 0.63: noise. 6 Page
7 Buy/Sell signals based on Summation Indices and My Mechanical Systems NO system is perfect, and NO system or trader has only winning trades. EVERY system gives false signals every now and then resulting in losses. But, sticking to a system over the long-run will pay off. Discipline pays. Switching between systems does not. Good systems have small losses and big gains and out-perform the indices. If you can t handle losing trades: don t trade! Table 1. Buy/Sell Signals based on Summation Indices Table 2. Buy/Sell Signals based on my Mechanical System for SPY/SH only. See here for more information Bottom line: Today s less than 6p range on the S&P500 doesn t lend itself for any major conclusions, so as long as price is unable to move and close below SPX2764 (the 2 nd confirmation the Bears need), price can still move higher in a possible final wave-5, with today s pullback still being (part of) wave-4 of -v of -1/a.. BUT if price can move over SPX2804 it can target SPX and as high as SPX [but I would urge caution about these higher targets as 5 th of 5 th waves often disappoint.]. In the mean time, a triangle (typical 4 th wave pattern) appears to be forming with uptrend trendline support at around SPX tomorrow. Breadth is longer term very overbought, but shorter-term could be setting up for snap-back rally within typically 1-2 days. Hence, upside potential is still there, but downside risk is at this stage larger (~2% vs ~10% on the S&P500). 2019, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted daily periodical is published on most stock market trading days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of our information for trading and investing are the sole responsibility of the reader and cannot be construed as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. 7 Page
Intelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/26/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates Yesterday I found a move below last Friday s high (SPX2794.20) will be a first sign of lower prices as then the decline can t be a 4 th wave because 4 th and 1 st waves can t overlap
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 03/06/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates It is still technically possible for the S&P500 to be in minor-4, as it is becoming possible more complex, but since the RUT is IMHO already in a confirmed major-2/b down wave, see
More information1 P a g e. Table 1. Ideal wave tracker table for nano and micro-waves of minute-v
Yesterday I concluded We may get some profit taking over the Holiday; but it should only be corrective (small 4 th waves). And today certainly looked like that with only a 5p range on the S&P. Hence the
More informationALOHA. Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
Another day and another ATH for the S&P, DJIA, NYA but still not for the NDX, NAS and RUT. Thus wave-e of minutev is still underway to SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. There was a
More informationiii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart.
Today the S&P500 (not the DJIA, NAS and NDX) made a marginally lower low below yesterday s low (SPX2527 vs SPX2529), which forced me to re-assess the short-term Elliott-wave count I have for this move
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week I was looking for SPX2455-2475 and the S&P500 gave us SPX2454 on Monday and then started to pullback and consolidate causing for many pundits to already start top calling. Close
More informationFigure 1. SPX 1-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
In the weekend update I summarized my findings as Short-term the market should be close to completing intermediate-a, though based on a simple Bollinger Band Study, SPX2820 may well be reached first, which
More informationBecause the AD line made a new ATH, there s simple too much underlying strength to suggest a large third- or c-wave lower is just around the corner
The short term count remains a bit messy over the past three days, so we ll just look at trendlines instead: see Figure- 1. Hence, please don t focus on the wave labeling as the 2 nd SPX2699 low may have
More informationIn the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability
In the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability 1) micro-1 ongoing with nano-iv at SPX2578 and nano-v to SPX2595 underway (60%). 2) Micro-2 topped at SPX2590, micro-c
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX2625.76) for wave-a. There s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators
More informationFigure 1. SPX daily chart: Larger leading- or ending diagonal, with wave-4 of the diagonal now SPX2675ish now underway
This correction is full of surprises, twists, turns, sharp drops and rallies. That s why corrections are so hard to forecast compared to an impulse. Thus, with the market not complying too much, other
More informationIn addition, a word of advice: when in a Bear market and my Elliot Wave Count suggests either down or a few more subdivisions marginally higher
WOW, who would have known?! Price went from my upper target zone to my lower (see page 2) in just 11 trading hours: The S&P500 lost ~10p/hour Crazy. Big gap ups one day, followed by a 100p drop the next
More informationc=a Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
Today s drop came as expected and the S&P moved as low as SPX2562, but as said yesterday A move below today s low SPX2569 will be a first sign intermediate-b is underway, with confirmation below SPX2545.
More informationMinute-iv SPX2550 +/- 5
Executive Summary Over the past weeks I reiterated smaller corrections can still be viewed as buying opportunities for short-term traders. So far so good, as the S&P dropped to SPX2544 and the NASDAQ to
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Price finally reached our expect SPX2112-2120 and the negative divergences that started to creep in on the daily TIs finally also took their toll over the past 2 days. The weekly charts
More information1 P a g e. Figure 1. NAS daily chart and S&P hourly chart: minute-v of minor-3 and micro-5 of minute-iv; respectively underway.
With TWTR up 18.5% today 1 and now AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT up 7.9%, 3.8%, and 3.8% after hours on earnings; respectively the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ) is up 1% after hours too. Thus, the ideal standard
More informationThe S&P500 is still allowed to tag SPX and then roll over, as it would fit with a c=a relationship on the COMPQ to $6226.
Yesterday I showed the different possibilities the market has, and since there s not been a >10p move to the opposite direction since the SPX2446.55 low and SPX 2469.64 higher were struck (today s decline
More informationb/ii c/iii b/ii b/ii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
On Monday I concluded Above SPX2690 opens the door for major-a having completed and major-b to SPX2800s is underway. Yesterday I then found that the recent SPX2631 low is an unusual point for a bottom
More informationMicro-4 SPX2544. Minute-iv SPX2557. You are here. Major-4 SPX P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Although 5 waves up off the SPX2557 low can be counted, because of the -what in my book counts best as- 3 wave structures both up and down since that mid-november low, the ending diagonal
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Like last week, also this week s Friday-price action left a lot to be desired for the Bulls and ambiguity regarding which exact Elliot Wave price pattern remains: major-4 still underway? Major-4
More informationFigure 1. Frost and Prechter
Clearly it is a Bull till it isn t and I ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday s daily update
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary We can keep the executive summary very simple, and repeat what we said last week: A break below SPX2405 is now needed to put the Bull-count in jeopardy. Until then we have to look up,
More informationSPX for the smaller major-4 triangle or SPX to complete the double zigzag. Figure 1.
Today s break -finally- below SPX2625 (and SPX2613) places the Ball now firmly in the Bears camp, albeit today s strong rally off the lows. And the two main bear counts remain the focus for now: SPX2579-2568
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary For three weeks we provided a primary (major b) and alternative count (primary V) up and we keep tracking both until one or the other is disproven. Two weeks ago we projected a major
More informationAdding longs in the SPX zone will be well-rewarded longer term we believe.
Executive Summary Last week we found, based on our analyses of the charts: Our SPX2146-2069 target zone remains and can now be narrowed down to SPX2117-2069, as the S&P500 closed at SPX2128 yesterday,
More informationSummary Merry Christmass,
Summary For weeks I ve been looking for the indices to reach ideally SPX2500-2475, NAS6395-6295 and NDX6080 +/- 10, DJIA $23,200 +/-100 and RUT $1355-1310. as at these levels the minute, minor and intermediate-waves
More informationMajor-3. Minute-iii. Micro-3. Minute-iv. Micro-4. You are here. Major-4. 1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary In last weekend s update the preferred view was changed to the Bullish count, and it has so far been the correct choice. Counts, i.e. possibilities (since markets are non-linear!), are
More informationTrading Performance Update with Hedge Fund North Post Partners, LP
Summary In last week s digest I was looking for more upside after the NFP-rally. We got to SPX2802 and that was all she wrote this week. Then the markets went into 3-4 day long declines almost entirely
More informationFigure 1. S&P 60-min chart. Ideally intermediate-a bottomed at SPX2593, then b to SPX2808 and c down to 2529
On Friday and Monday, 89% of NYSE stocks declined. Two back-to-back 89% down days are generally indicative of selling exhaustion, and on que 72% of NYSE stocks advanced today (ref: ISPYETF). This fits
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary After having reached SPX2484, 1p short of my ideal SPX24585-2505 target zone, on July 27 and selling off intra-day the S&P500 hasn t made a higher high and has remained flat the past
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Over the past week we re-introduced some alternative counts, all of which bullish and some simple more bullish than others. The market keeps tracking them well; and we still can t eliminate
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Our standard sub division (SSD) Elliot Wave count for the S&P500 continues to track the market well, and we ll keep it as is until the market will tell us different. We continue to expect
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary My call two weeks ago to revoke the major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. was the correct thing today as I was then
More informationWe find good Fib-extension overlap at that level between the major and minor wave degrees suggesting it should work as a magnet for price.
Executive Summary Last week we forecasted an ideal minute iii top at SPX2174-2188, followed by a drop to SPX2250-2235 (likely the high end of the range) for minute iv before the market continues to melt
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Based on the prior week s price action, I found in last week s digest uncertainty has increased once again on where the market exactly is from and EWT-count perspective. The standard impulse (preferred),
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60-min chart. Ending diagonal triangle forming, a set of nested 1,2 waves; or simple 3 waves down off SPX2800 to complete major-a?
In the weekend update I was looking for lower prices, and lower we got, but price did also close higher, i.e. above Fridays close. Another Bullish reversal candle? We ve seen plenty of these one-hit-wonders
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary All the charts are now improving due to Friday s strong close, bringing the S&P back above its 20d and 50d SMA and giving renewed buy signals on the daily and weekly time frame on several TIs.
More information1 P a g e. Summary. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure
Summary Two weeks ago I was already looking for Ideal lows are in the S&P2670-2600, NASDAQ $7000-6800 and RUT $1460-2480 zones., and last week I determined that Although the ideal c=a target for the S&P500
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary Last week I concluded Short term there s a possibility to revisit SPX2700-2730 first before moving below SPX2600, but the most likely scenario is a direct move lower with an ultimate target of
More informationWhat keeps me from being extremely Bullish (e.g. a move directly to SPX3200+ from current levels) is
Summary Over the last month the market has been rather choppy and overlapping, invalidating several times standard Fib-based impulse patterns, leaving us therefore with what counts best as only a, b, c-waves
More informationALOHA. Arnout aka Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
I continue to use the wave-i, ii count as my preferred count until proven otherwise. Why? 1) Price bottomed last week right in the preferred target zone for wave-ii. No need to overthink that. 2) The entire
More informationSymmetry target: 24000
Flat/consolidation day for the S&P and NAS, whereas the DJIA continued its relentless Bull run. Since the low made in February 2016 (22 months ago) the DJIA has gained 8000 points, of which the last 3100
More informationTech is weakest and has already moved below its SPX2604 low. Hence it is logical to assume the S&P will follow suit soon.
Yesterday I concluded If my count is correct than minute-i of minor-c/1 is soon complete and we should see a short and brief minute-ii bounce before iii of c/3 gets going. Little did I know that today
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week we expected a bottom within 2-3 days, we were unfortunately wrong, as instead the market turned into a confused- frog blender swirling around our Fib-based, and the Bradley
More information1 P a g e. Summary. For now, I am looking for a major-a low at
Summary As all most all my forecasted upside (retrace) and downside (Extension) price targets have been reached over the last 3-4 weeks I then always try to be extra careful, cautious and objective in
More informationFigure 1. NAS 1-min and SPX 60 min charts.
Today s update will be brief as price on most indices has now reached their upside targets for the anticipated intermediate wave-a. The NASDAQ has reached the upper end of its first resistance zone. If
More information1 P a g e. Summary. However, a move over SPX2817 from current levels will mean we re still dealing with a larger, more complex bounce to SPX
Summary Last week I provided some additional information from John Murphy and about typical end-of-bull sector rotation as added weight of evidence for a larger correction being underway. This week the
More informationWe have 3 timing/cycles (our Fib-timed trading intervals, Bradley Turn dates, and Gann dates) pointing to a turn around mid-march.
Executive Summary The market reached the lower end of our preferred SPX2350-2370 target zone, without breaking below SPX2352, the past week, and then reversed with a 22p rally off the SPX2354.54 low made
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary In last week s update I set a first target of SPX2428 for the S&P500, which was reached on Thursday. I expected from there a 10-15p correction, but instead the market decided to target
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week I showed the big-picture EW/OEW count and overview of the NASDAQ, which aligned well with where many big-tech companies are in there respective wave-counts: I found Cylce-1
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary On Thursday, I proclaimed a major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. Today I am terrible sorry to announce that I am not
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary In last week s update I concluded The S&P500 closed at SPX2532 and therefore suggests major-b is underway. Majora simple formed an unorthodox oversold bottom, I now prefer to see this rally as
More informationResistance remains in the SPX S/R zone, with a break out targeting 2170s.
Executive Summary With a flat week, it appears a one pager would be sufficient to summarize what has happened. However, we believe that would get us off too easy and we still would like to provide a full
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Based on this week s deduction of observable facts, we continue to favor the major a at SPX 1867, major b at SPX 2021 and major c down to SPX 1830-1850ies around October 9-12. How exactly
More informationSummary b/2 b/2 Aloha,
Summary As we ve been navigating this Bear market s twists and turns rather successfully over the last few weeks, we can hopefully continue this winning streak. Short-term, Friday s price action left a
More informationSummary III III Aloha,
Summary In last week s update I mentioned A break below SPX2875 would be worrysome for the Bull case and morph things into something else. Well, that is what happened the past week and this week s update
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