Atul Ltd (ATLP IN) Sustained price & AkzoNobel JV to drive value growth
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- Martin Jackson
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Atul Ltd (ATLP IN) Sustained price & AkzoNobel JV to drive value growth INDIA SPECIALTY CHEMICALS Quarterly Update Top takeaways from Q3FY19 Standalone sales at Rs 10.19bn (+27% yoy), up 5% vs. estimates. Sales growth of +27% yoy in life-sciences and 28% yoy in performance chemicals helped overall sales growth. EBITDA margin at 20.7% (+510bps/+190bps yoy/qoq) was 200bps ahead of our estimates of 18.7%, led by 160bps (qoq) saving in power/fuel cost and sustained pricing in key segments. The resultant EBITDA (Rs 2.11bn, +68% yoy) up 16% vs. our estimates. The reported PAT of Rs 1.17mn (+77% yoy) was in-line with our estimate of Rs 1.16bn. However, the PAT adjusted for forex loss of Rs 101mn was 6% ahead of our estimates and 15% beat to consensus. Other key highlights: Life-science chemicals (pharma and agrochemical segments, 31% of sales): ATLP sales growth was strong at 27% (Rs 3.34bn, 4% above our estimates) mainly driven by sequential strong pricing in agrochemicals (2,4, D). The segment s EBIT margin improved to 15.7% (+600bps yoy/ flat qoq) sustained/higher pricing scenario. Performance chemicals (aromatics, bulk chemicals, colours, and polymers; 69% of sales): Reported 28% yoy growth to Rs 7.58bn (+7% above our estimates) on better pricing in the key segments. EBIT margin rose 530/160bps yoy/qoq to 18.8% in Q3FY19. There was strong rise in prices of ATLP s performance-chemicals segment aromatics (+27% yoy), bulk chemicals (+70%), polymers (+11%) and colours (+30%). The agrochemicals segment (under life sciences) saw +40% yoy price rise. Price increases in key segments were mainly driven by capacity rationalisation and substantial upward shift in operating cost in China. Gross margin expanded by 160bps yoy to 47.4% (+20bps qoq) in Q3, which reflects no major inventories mark-down despite sharp 35% qoq fall in crude price. This was also supported by sustained/higher product prices qoq. Outlook and valuation: ATLP s overall performance in Q3FY19 was ahead of our expectations, which were largely led by improved product pricing across business segments. We expect the large part of the appreciated products prices to sustain in the near future as Chinese issues (regulatory, elevated cost, relocation, clamp down, restriction over capacities, etc) are expected to persist and that would work to the advantage Indian peers. Additionally, the likely commissioning of the new plant under the joint venture partnership with AkzoNobel to manufacture monochloroacetic acid (a key ingredient for its important agri-product 2,4D) for captive as well as export purpose in Q4 will drive value growth for ATLP. Moreover, its plan to scale-up polymer segment and diversification into pigments coupled with strong aromatics makes earning outlook strong for ATLP. 18 January 2019 BUY (Upgrade) CMP RS3542 / TARGET RS 4100 (+16%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 30 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 104 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 3618 / 2500 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.8 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Dec 18 Sep 18 Jun 18 PROMOTERS : FII / NRI : FI / MF : NON PRO : PUBLIC & OTHERS : KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 41,848 46,653 52,170 EBIDTA 7,909 8,957 10,069 Net Profit 4,710 5,315 6,004 EPS, Rs PER, x EV/EBIDTA, x ROE, % Debt/Equity (%) CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs bn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Revenue EBITDA Core PAT EPS (Rs) Surya Patra and Mehul Sheth Factoring strong Q3 performance, we have fine-tuned our earnings estimates and raised our FY19/20 EBITDA estimates by 7%/8% to Rs 7.9/9bn and introduced FY21 EBITDA at Rs 10.06bn implies CAGR of 26% over FY Given the conducive outlook for Indian Specialty chemicals, we now roll forward ATLP s valuation to FY21 and value ATLP at Rs 4,100 i.e., 11x FY21 EV/EBITDA (vs. Rs 3,350 earlier) implying upside of 16%. Hence, we upgrade our rating to BUY with TP of Rs 4,100. (Rs mn) Q2FY19 Q1FY19 qoq Ch (%) Q2FY18 yoy growth% vs. expectations% Comments Life Science chemicals 3,341 3, , Both the segments was better than estimates Performance and other chemical 7,584 7, , Net Sales 10,195 10, , EBITDA 2,114 1, , EBITDA margin bps Led by improved price scenario Reported PAT 1,169 1, Core PAT 1,235 1, Adjusted for forex loss of Rs 101mn EPS (Rs) Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Q3FY19 standalone results at a glance (Rs mn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Total Income 7,873 8,037 8,666 8,881 10,074 10, Adjusted RM cost 4,342 4,359 4,695 4,773 5,317 5, % of sales Gross Profit 3,531 3,678 3,971 4,107 4,757 4, Gross Margin% Employee Expenses % of sales Other Expenses 1,833 1,961 2,038 2,199 2,324 2, % of sales Total operating expenditure 6,624 6,776 7,212 7,461 8,174 8, % of sales Operating profit 1,249 1,261 1,454 1,420 1,900 2, OPM (%) Other Income Depreciation EBIT 1,066 1,042 1,442 1,283 1,692 1, EBIT margin (%) Interest PBT 1,039 1,023 1,425 1,274 1,681 1, Exceptional Item (123) 101 Core PBT ex EO 1, ,425 1,274 1,804 1, Total tax Tax rate (%) Reported profit ,190 1, Net profit margin (%) Core PAT ,109 1, Core EPS Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Segmental revenues (Rs mn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Life Science chemicals 2,709 2,625 2,802 3,060 3,532 3, % of sales Performance and other chemical 5,620 5,921 6,411 6,423 7,052 7, % of sales Gross Sales 7,873 8,090 8,666 8,881 9,982 10, Segmental EBIT (Rs mn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Life Science chemicals EBIT margin % Performance and other chemical ,216 1, EBIT margin % EBIT 1,041 1,097 1,290 1,243 1,767 1, Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Net sales 33,379 41,848 46,653 52,170 Growth, % Total income 33,379 41,848 46,653 52,170 Raw material expenses -18,456-22,180-24,493-27,337 Employee expenses -2,134-2,427-2,706-3,026 Other Operating expenses -7,737-9,332-10,497-11,738 EBITDA (Core) 5,052 7,909 8,957 10,069 Growth, % (0.8) Margin, % Depreciation -1,104-1,217-1,401-1,527 EBIT 3,948 6,692 7,557 8,542 Growth, % (4.6) Margin, % Interest paid Other Non-Operating Income Pre-tax profit 4,080 6,966 7,868 8,896 Tax provided -1,310-2,299-2,596-2,936 Profit after tax 2,770 4,668 5,272 5,960 Net Profit 2,770 4,668 5,272 5,960 Growth, % (13.0) Net Profit (adjusted) 2,812 4,710 5,315 6,004 Unadj. shares (m) Wtd avg shares (m) Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Cash & bank 494 3,609 7,832 12,877 Debtors 7,234 8,718 9,719 10,869 Inventory 4,114 4,902 5,445 6,081 Loans & advances Other current assets 1,943 1,943 1,943 1,943 Total current assets 14,012 19,424 25,219 32,084 Investments 4,731 4,731 4,731 4,731 Gross fixed assets 12,681 14,150 15,916 17,353 Less: Depreciation -2,678-3,895-5,295-6,822 Add: Capital WIP 1,315 1,553 1, Net fixed assets 11,318 11,808 11,773 11,483 Total assets 30,136 36,038 41,799 48,373 Current liabilities 5,674 7,207 8,035 8,985 Provisions Total current liabilities 5,961 7,494 8,322 9,272 Non-current liabilities 1,536 1,580 1,583 1,589 Total liabilities 7,497 9,074 9,905 10,861 Paid-up capital Reserves & surplus 22,142 26,468 31,397 37,016 Shareholders equity 22,639 26,964 31,894 37,513 Total equity & liabilities 30,136 36,038 41,799 48,373 Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e PAT 2,812 4,710 5,315 6,004 Depreciation 1,104 1,217 1,401 1,527 Change in WC Cash flow from operating activities 3,331 5,163 5,970 6,662 Capital expenditure -1,476-1,707-1,366-1,237 Misc Exp Cash flow from investing activities ,707-1,366-1,237 Equity Dividends Debt -1, Investments Cash flow from financing activities -2, Net chg in cash 211 3,115 4,223 5,046 Opening cash balance ,609 7,832 Closing cash balance 494 3,609 7,832 12,877 Valuation Ratios FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Per Share data EPS (INR) Growth, % (13.0) Book NAV/share (INR) , ,257.2 FDEPS (INR) CEPS (INR) CFPS (INR) Return ratios Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%) Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) Sales/Total assets (x) Sales/Net FA (x) Working capital/sales (x) Receivable days Working capital days Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Interest cover (x) Total debt/equity (%) Net debt/equity (%) (1.5) (12.7) (24.1) (33.9) Valuation PER (x) PEG (x) - y-o-y growth (2.9) Price/Book (x) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History S (TP 1950) S (TP 1950) S (TP 1650) N (TP 2270) N (TP 2270) N (TP 2980) N (TP 2400) N (TP 2980) N (TP 3350) 1500 N (TP 1650) N (TP 1650) J-16 F-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 A-16 O-16 N-16 J-17 F-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 A-17 O-17 N-17 J-18 F-18 A-18 M-18 J-18 A-18 O-18 N-18 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15% SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%. Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Mar-10 Jun-11 Sep-12 Dec-13 Mar-15 Jun-16 Sep-17 Dec-18 INSTITUTIONAL
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INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 2 Nov 2015) Rs 1,812 Target Price Rs 2,050 Nifty 8,051 Sensex 26,559 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ECLX IN No. of Shares (mn) 30 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 55/843 6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
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