BUY. Efforts on cost cutting paying off RAMCO CEMENTS. Target Price: Rs 435. Key highlights. Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E

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1 RAMCO S BUY Target Price: Rs 435 Efforts on cost cutting paying off Q2 EBITDA at Rs 2.8 bn (up 30% YoY) was ahead of our estimates due to lower-than-expected costs. Average costs (excluding freight) declined Rs 200/ton QoQ due to lower RM and power & fuel costs. EBITDA/ton was Rs 1,450 vs. Rs 930 in Q2FY15 and Rs 1,300 in Q1FY16. High cement prices in South and falling cost of production augur well for Ramco s profitability. We expect cement demand in Andhra Pradesh/Telangana to rebound due to reconstruction of a new capital region and kick-start of development work (irrigation/low-cost housing). Since majority of Ramco s capex is over, a strong EBITDA would help deleverage the balance sheet. We maintain our EPS estimates and BUY rating with a TP of Rs 435. CMP : Rs 361 Potential Upside : 20% MARKET DATA No. of Shares : 238 mn Free Float : 58% Market Cap : Rs 87 bn 52-week High / Low : Rs 380 / Rs 270 Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 193,838 shares Bloomberg Code : TRCL IB Equity Promoters Holding : 42% FII / DII : 14% / 21% Key highlights Costs decline: Raw material cost decline to Rs 700/ton (vs. Rs 840/ton in Q2FY15) after adjusting for Rs 80 mn reversal of excess provision for District Mineral Fund. Power and fuel costs declined to Rs 800/ton (vs. Rs 950/ton in Q2FY15). This was mainly due to higher pet-coke usage and low imported coal prices Strong realization: Average realization/ton was Rs 5,030 (up 6% YoY) Sales volume was down 12% YoY to 1.7 mnt Windmill revenue was Rs 350 mn and EBIT was Rs 240 mn Estimates and valuation: We maintain our EPS estimates for FY16/FY17 at Rs 22/Rs 31 respectively. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs 435 (8x FY17E EV/EBITDA) Financial summary (Standalone) Sales (Rs mn) 35,221 34,969 36,263 42,624 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,133 7,889 11,505 13,909 Adj PAT (Rs mn) 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Con. EPS* (Rs) Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E Volumes (mnt) % growth (YoY) -11% -5% 10% Avg. realn (Rs/t) 4,560 4,960 5,300 EBITDA (Rs/t) 791 1,247 1,388 EPS (Rs) Change YOY (%) (75.4) P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/E (x) DPS (Rs) Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital Price performance 140 Sensex Ramco Cements Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Nitesh Jain Sr. Vice President - Materials nitesh.jain@axiscap.in Sujan Sanisetty VP - Materials sujan.sanisetty@axiscap.in Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<GO>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 01

2 RAMCO S Exhibit 1: Results update Quarter ended 12 months ended (Rs mn) Sep-15 Sep-14 % Chg Jun-15 % Chg FY16E FY15 % Chg Net Sales 8,915 9,514 (6.3) 9,509 (6.2) 36,263 34, EBIDTA 2,830 2, , ,505 7, Other income PBIDT 2,855 2, , ,802 8, Depreciation ,783 2, Interest (5.6) 488 (7.1) 1,704 1,951 (12.7) PBT 1,731 1, , ,316 3, Tax ,975 1, Adjusted PAT 1, ,340 2, Extra ordinary income/ (exp.) Reported PAT 1, ,340 2, No. of shares (mn) EBIDTA margins (%) PBIDT margins (%) EPS - annualized (Rs.) Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 02

3 Financial summary (Standalone) Profit & loss (Rs mn) Net sales 35,221 34,969 36,263 42,624 Other operating income 1,876 2,077 2,389 2,747 Total operating income 37,097 37,046 38,652 45,371 Cost of goods sold (9,927) (9,648) (9,899) (11,256) Gross profit 27,170 27,398 28,753 34,115 Gross margin (%) Total operating expenses (21,036) (19,509) (17,248) (20,206) EBITDA 6,133 7,889 11,505 13,909 EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation (3,063) (2,512) (2,783) (2,802) EBIT 3,070 5,376 8,722 11,108 Net interest (1,881) (1,951) (1,704) (1,494) Other income Profit before tax 1,345 3,608 7,316 10,121 Total taxation (313) (1,210) (1,975) (2,733) Tax rate (%) Profit after tax 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Minorities Profit/ Loss associate co(s) Adjusted net profit 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Adj. PAT margin (%) Net non-recurring items Reported net profit 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Balance sheet (Rs mn) Paid-up capital Reserves & surplus 24,583 26,024 30,811 37,590 Net worth 24,821 26,262 31,049 37,828 Borrowing 29,288 27,342 24,342 21,342 Other non-current liabilities 7,374 8,276 8,276 8,276 Total liabilities 68,686 70,748 69,988 75,204 Gross fixed assets 66,802 72,090 75,217 75,717 Less: Depreciation (20,344) (23,265) (26,048) (28,849) Net fixed assets 46,458 48,825 49,169 46,867 Add: Capital WIP 3,994 2,627 1,000 2,000 Total fixed assets 50,451 51,452 50,169 48,867 Total Investment 2,834 3,577 3,577 3,577 Inventory 6,855 5,217 6,458 7,007 Debtors 3,040 3,802 2,782 3,387 Cash & bank ,029 7,695 Loans & advances 5,059 6,072 3,974 4,671 Current liabilities 7,203 8,868 6,322 7,758 Net current assets 8,197 6,851 9,921 15,002 Other non-current assets Total assets 68,686 70,748 69,988 75,204 Cash flow (Rs mn) RAMCO S Profit before tax 1,345 3,608 7,316 10,121 Depreciation & Amortisation (3,063) (2,512) (2,783) (2,802) Chg in working capital (1,224) 1,529 (670) (415) Cash flow from operations 4,753 8,390 9,158 11,269 Capital expenditure (4,584) (3,922) (1,500) (1,500) Cash flow from investing (4,760) (4,665) (1,500) (1,500) Equity raised/ (repaid) Debt raised/ (repaid) 2,618 (1,946) (3,000) (3,000) Dividend paid (279) (430) (554) (609) Cash flow from financing 457 (4,328) (5,258) (5,103) Net chg in cash 450 (603) 2,400 4,666 Key ratios OPERATIONAL FDEPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Dividend payout ratio (%) GROWTH Net sales (%) (3.9) (0.7) EBITDA (%) (40.7) Adj net profit (%) (75.4) FDEPS (%) (75.4) PERFORMANCE RoE (%) RoCE (%) EFFICIENCY Asset turnover (x) Sales/ total assets (x) Working capital/ sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days FINANCIAL STABILITY Total debt/ equity (x) Net debt/ equity (x) Current ratio (x) Interest cover (x) VALUATION PE (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) EV/ Net sales (x) PB (x) Dividend yield (%) Free cash flow yield (%) Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 03

4 RAMCO S DISCLOSURE The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). 1. Axis Capital Limited (ACL), the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of Investment banking, Stock broking and Distribution of Mutual Fund products. 2. ACL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its investment banking and stockbroking business activities and with the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. 3. ACL, the RE has applied for registration with the SEBI as per the Regulations. 4. ACL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report 5. ACL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that ACL may have a conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision. 6. The research analyst or any of his / her family members or relatives may have financial interest or any other material conflict of interest in the subject company of this research report. 7. The research analyst has not served as director / officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12-month period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. 8. The research analyst or any of his / her family members or relatives may have actual / beneficial ownership exceeding 1% or more, of the securities of the subject company as at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. 9. In the last 12-month period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report ACL or any of its associates may have: i. Received compensation for investment banking, merchant banking or stock broking services or for any other services from the subject company of this research report and / or; ii. Managed or co-managed public offering of the securities from the subject company of this research report and / or; iii. Received compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or stockbroking services from the subject company of this research report and / or; iv. Received compensation or other benefits from the subject company of this research report or any other third-party in connection with this report 10. The other disclosures / terms and conditions on which this research report is being published are as under: i. This document is prepared for the sole use of the clients or prospective clients of ACL who are / proposed to be registered in India. It may be also be accessed through financial websites by those persons who are usually enabled to access such websites. It is not for sale or distribution to the general public. ii. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. iii. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, or advice to buy / sell or solicitation to buy / sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. iv. The intent of this document is not to be recommendatory in nature v. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors vi. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the suitability, merits and risks of such an investment. vii. ACL has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document viii. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval ix. Subject to the disclosures made herein above, ACL, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct entity, independent of each other. The recipient shall take this into account before interpreting the document. x. This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ACL. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein xi. This document is being supplied to the recipient solely for information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose and the same shall be void where prohibited. xii. Neither the whole nor part of this document or copy thereof may be taken or transmitted into the United States of America (to U.S. Persons), Canada, Japan and the People s Republic of China (China) or distributed or redistributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America, Canada, Japan and China or to any resident thereof. xiii. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document may come shall inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. xiv. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including but not limited to loss of capital, revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. xv. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with Axis Capital Limited. Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 04

5 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 RAMCO S Axis Capital Limited Axis House, C2, Wadia International Centre, P.B Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India. Tel:- Board ; Dealing ; Fax:- Research ; Dealing DEFINITION OF RATINGS Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months BUY More than 10% HOLD Between 10% and -10% SELL Less than -10% ANALYST DISCLOSURES 1. The analyst(s) declares that neither he/ his relatives have a Beneficial or Actual ownership of > 1% of equity of subject company/ companies 2. The analyst(s) declares that he has no material conflict of interest with the subject company/ companies of this report Ramco Cement (MSCM.BO, TRCL IN) Price and Recommendation History (Rs) CMP Buy Hold Sell Under Review Not Rated Date Target P rice Reco 19-Aug Hold 21-Nov Hold 12-Jan B uy 18-Mar B uy 5-Aug B uy 5-Oct B uy 6-Oct B uy Source: Axis Capital Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 05

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