BUY. Efforts on cost cutting paying off RAMCO CEMENTS. Target Price: Rs 435. Key highlights. Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E
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- Darren Wood
- 5 years ago
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1 RAMCO S BUY Target Price: Rs 435 Efforts on cost cutting paying off Q2 EBITDA at Rs 2.8 bn (up 30% YoY) was ahead of our estimates due to lower-than-expected costs. Average costs (excluding freight) declined Rs 200/ton QoQ due to lower RM and power & fuel costs. EBITDA/ton was Rs 1,450 vs. Rs 930 in Q2FY15 and Rs 1,300 in Q1FY16. High cement prices in South and falling cost of production augur well for Ramco s profitability. We expect cement demand in Andhra Pradesh/Telangana to rebound due to reconstruction of a new capital region and kick-start of development work (irrigation/low-cost housing). Since majority of Ramco s capex is over, a strong EBITDA would help deleverage the balance sheet. We maintain our EPS estimates and BUY rating with a TP of Rs 435. CMP : Rs 361 Potential Upside : 20% MARKET DATA No. of Shares : 238 mn Free Float : 58% Market Cap : Rs 87 bn 52-week High / Low : Rs 380 / Rs 270 Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 193,838 shares Bloomberg Code : TRCL IB Equity Promoters Holding : 42% FII / DII : 14% / 21% Key highlights Costs decline: Raw material cost decline to Rs 700/ton (vs. Rs 840/ton in Q2FY15) after adjusting for Rs 80 mn reversal of excess provision for District Mineral Fund. Power and fuel costs declined to Rs 800/ton (vs. Rs 950/ton in Q2FY15). This was mainly due to higher pet-coke usage and low imported coal prices Strong realization: Average realization/ton was Rs 5,030 (up 6% YoY) Sales volume was down 12% YoY to 1.7 mnt Windmill revenue was Rs 350 mn and EBIT was Rs 240 mn Estimates and valuation: We maintain our EPS estimates for FY16/FY17 at Rs 22/Rs 31 respectively. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs 435 (8x FY17E EV/EBITDA) Financial summary (Standalone) Sales (Rs mn) 35,221 34,969 36,263 42,624 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,133 7,889 11,505 13,909 Adj PAT (Rs mn) 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Con. EPS* (Rs) Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E Volumes (mnt) % growth (YoY) -11% -5% 10% Avg. realn (Rs/t) 4,560 4,960 5,300 EBITDA (Rs/t) 791 1,247 1,388 EPS (Rs) Change YOY (%) (75.4) P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/E (x) DPS (Rs) Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital Price performance 140 Sensex Ramco Cements Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Nitesh Jain Sr. Vice President - Materials nitesh.jain@axiscap.in Sujan Sanisetty VP - Materials sujan.sanisetty@axiscap.in Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<GO>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 01
2 RAMCO S Exhibit 1: Results update Quarter ended 12 months ended (Rs mn) Sep-15 Sep-14 % Chg Jun-15 % Chg FY16E FY15 % Chg Net Sales 8,915 9,514 (6.3) 9,509 (6.2) 36,263 34, EBIDTA 2,830 2, , ,505 7, Other income PBIDT 2,855 2, , ,802 8, Depreciation ,783 2, Interest (5.6) 488 (7.1) 1,704 1,951 (12.7) PBT 1,731 1, , ,316 3, Tax ,975 1, Adjusted PAT 1, ,340 2, Extra ordinary income/ (exp.) Reported PAT 1, ,340 2, No. of shares (mn) EBIDTA margins (%) PBIDT margins (%) EPS - annualized (Rs.) Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 02
3 Financial summary (Standalone) Profit & loss (Rs mn) Net sales 35,221 34,969 36,263 42,624 Other operating income 1,876 2,077 2,389 2,747 Total operating income 37,097 37,046 38,652 45,371 Cost of goods sold (9,927) (9,648) (9,899) (11,256) Gross profit 27,170 27,398 28,753 34,115 Gross margin (%) Total operating expenses (21,036) (19,509) (17,248) (20,206) EBITDA 6,133 7,889 11,505 13,909 EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation (3,063) (2,512) (2,783) (2,802) EBIT 3,070 5,376 8,722 11,108 Net interest (1,881) (1,951) (1,704) (1,494) Other income Profit before tax 1,345 3,608 7,316 10,121 Total taxation (313) (1,210) (1,975) (2,733) Tax rate (%) Profit after tax 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Minorities Profit/ Loss associate co(s) Adjusted net profit 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Adj. PAT margin (%) Net non-recurring items Reported net profit 1,033 2,398 5,340 7,388 Balance sheet (Rs mn) Paid-up capital Reserves & surplus 24,583 26,024 30,811 37,590 Net worth 24,821 26,262 31,049 37,828 Borrowing 29,288 27,342 24,342 21,342 Other non-current liabilities 7,374 8,276 8,276 8,276 Total liabilities 68,686 70,748 69,988 75,204 Gross fixed assets 66,802 72,090 75,217 75,717 Less: Depreciation (20,344) (23,265) (26,048) (28,849) Net fixed assets 46,458 48,825 49,169 46,867 Add: Capital WIP 3,994 2,627 1,000 2,000 Total fixed assets 50,451 51,452 50,169 48,867 Total Investment 2,834 3,577 3,577 3,577 Inventory 6,855 5,217 6,458 7,007 Debtors 3,040 3,802 2,782 3,387 Cash & bank ,029 7,695 Loans & advances 5,059 6,072 3,974 4,671 Current liabilities 7,203 8,868 6,322 7,758 Net current assets 8,197 6,851 9,921 15,002 Other non-current assets Total assets 68,686 70,748 69,988 75,204 Cash flow (Rs mn) RAMCO S Profit before tax 1,345 3,608 7,316 10,121 Depreciation & Amortisation (3,063) (2,512) (2,783) (2,802) Chg in working capital (1,224) 1,529 (670) (415) Cash flow from operations 4,753 8,390 9,158 11,269 Capital expenditure (4,584) (3,922) (1,500) (1,500) Cash flow from investing (4,760) (4,665) (1,500) (1,500) Equity raised/ (repaid) Debt raised/ (repaid) 2,618 (1,946) (3,000) (3,000) Dividend paid (279) (430) (554) (609) Cash flow from financing 457 (4,328) (5,258) (5,103) Net chg in cash 450 (603) 2,400 4,666 Key ratios OPERATIONAL FDEPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Dividend payout ratio (%) GROWTH Net sales (%) (3.9) (0.7) EBITDA (%) (40.7) Adj net profit (%) (75.4) FDEPS (%) (75.4) PERFORMANCE RoE (%) RoCE (%) EFFICIENCY Asset turnover (x) Sales/ total assets (x) Working capital/ sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days FINANCIAL STABILITY Total debt/ equity (x) Net debt/ equity (x) Current ratio (x) Interest cover (x) VALUATION PE (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) EV/ Net sales (x) PB (x) Dividend yield (%) Free cash flow yield (%) Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 03
4 RAMCO S DISCLOSURE The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). 1. Axis Capital Limited (ACL), the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of Investment banking, Stock broking and Distribution of Mutual Fund products. 2. ACL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its investment banking and stockbroking business activities and with the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. 3. ACL, the RE has applied for registration with the SEBI as per the Regulations. 4. ACL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report 5. ACL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that ACL may have a conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision. 6. The research analyst or any of his / her family members or relatives may have financial interest or any other material conflict of interest in the subject company of this research report. 7. The research analyst has not served as director / officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12-month period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. 8. The research analyst or any of his / her family members or relatives may have actual / beneficial ownership exceeding 1% or more, of the securities of the subject company as at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. 9. In the last 12-month period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report ACL or any of its associates may have: i. Received compensation for investment banking, merchant banking or stock broking services or for any other services from the subject company of this research report and / or; ii. Managed or co-managed public offering of the securities from the subject company of this research report and / or; iii. Received compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or stockbroking services from the subject company of this research report and / or; iv. Received compensation or other benefits from the subject company of this research report or any other third-party in connection with this report 10. The other disclosures / terms and conditions on which this research report is being published are as under: i. 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Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including but not limited to loss of capital, revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. xv. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with Axis Capital Limited. Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 04
5 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 RAMCO S Axis Capital Limited Axis House, C2, Wadia International Centre, P.B Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India. Tel:- Board ; Dealing ; Fax:- Research ; Dealing DEFINITION OF RATINGS Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months BUY More than 10% HOLD Between 10% and -10% SELL Less than -10% ANALYST DISCLOSURES 1. The analyst(s) declares that neither he/ his relatives have a Beneficial or Actual ownership of > 1% of equity of subject company/ companies 2. The analyst(s) declares that he has no material conflict of interest with the subject company/ companies of this report Ramco Cement (MSCM.BO, TRCL IN) Price and Recommendation History (Rs) CMP Buy Hold Sell Under Review Not Rated Date Target P rice Reco 19-Aug Hold 21-Nov Hold 12-Jan B uy 18-Mar B uy 5-Aug B uy 5-Oct B uy 6-Oct B uy Source: Axis Capital Axis Capital is available on Bloomberg (AXCP<Go>), Reuters.com, Firstcall.com and Factset.com 05
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Company Update Superior Product Mix & New Age Markets to Aid Growth New investments to aid growth: Visaka continues to give a good set of numbers. YoY EPS grew at 142% aided by a revenue growth of 1.5%
More informationACC NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,261 Target Price - 4QCY2012 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone) Investment Period -
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More informationCMP* (Rs) 336 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 21 Bloomberg Ticker. MOIL IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) 45 Free Float (%) 24 Shares O/S (mn) 133
4QFY17 Result Update June 06, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 45 Free Float (%) 24 Shares O/S (mn) 133 Mixed Quarterly Performance; Volume to Remain Strong has reported a mixed performance in 4QFY17. Its blended
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We maintain rating on DRRD post the company s 3QFY16 results Revenue growth for the quarter was muted (3% yoy) due to disappointing performances in Russia
More informationMRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `9,407 Target Price `11,343. Company Update Automobile. Key financials
Company Update Automobile February 22, 212 MRF Performance Highlights Y/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY12 1QSY11 % chg (yoy) 4QSY11 % chg (qoq) Net sales 2,875 2,167 32.7 2,62 9.8 EBITDA 258 243 5.9 181 42.6 EBITDA
More informationKey estimate revision. Year FY14 23,28,609 3,48,027 1,40, FY15E 25,74,029 3,94,133 1,69,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive stance on TTMT driven by continued strong performance at JLR on both revenues & margins and expected reduction in losses at standalone
More informationFineotex Chemical Ltd
Company Update Decent Performance under Macroeconomic Pressure; Business Traction to Continue: Fineotex Chemical recorded decent set of result as consolidated sales grew by 1.1% YoY (largely in line) to
More informationBata India BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `842. 1QFY2019 Result Update Footwear. Historical share price chart.
Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Footwear July 23, 2018 Bata India Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY19 1QFY18 % yoy
More informationCMP* (Rs) 166 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 28 Bloomberg Ticker. NTPC IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,361 Free Float (%) 37.7 Shares O/S (mn) 8,245
3QFY18 Result Update February 05, 2018 CMP* (Rs) 166 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,361 Free Float (%) 37.7 Shares O/S (mn) 8,245 Wage Provisioning, Lower in Plant Availability Impede Earnings Growth has delivered
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May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 India Research Infrastructure May 22, 215 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: AHLU IN Reuters: AHLU.BO BUY Better performance ahead ACIL posted
More informationMaruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `9,315 Target Price `10,820. 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart
Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile July 27, 2018 Maruti Suzuki India Performance
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Ambuja Cements Performance Highlights Quarterly results (Standalone) Y/E Dec. (` cr) 3QCY2015 2QCY2015 % chg qoq 3QCY2014 % chg yoy Net Sales 2,095 2,493 (16.0) 2,188 (4.2) EBIDTA 310 384 (19.2) 393 (21.2)
More informationQuick take. Ruchira Papers Ltd. BUY. Creating value through paper. Target Price. Investment Period 12 Months. 3 year daily price chart.
Ltd. Creating value through paper Limited (RPL) manufactures writing paper, printing paper and Kraft paper. The company's white writing and printing paper is used in making notebooks and writing material,
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May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Plywood May 19, 2018 Century Plyboards Ltd Performance Update (Rs cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17 % yoy 3QFY17
More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year FY15 121, % 16, % FY16E 137, % 20,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We maintain rating on Aurobindo post the company s 3QFY16 results. Revenue growth for the quarter was 10% yoy: US sales of $238mn (vs. estimate of $251mn
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive outlook on WIL and believe that revival in MHCV industry, increasing content per vehicle and opportunity in exports would drive
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May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Automobile May 30, 2018 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17
More informationITC. Rating: Target price: EPS: Relative better visibility despite the smoke, Maintain BUY CMP. Target. Rating. Rs.389. Buy. Rs.
: price: EPS: Relative better visibility despite the smoke, Maintain BUY ITC reported revenues of Rs.~87.2bn (+13% y-o-y), operating profits of Rs.32.8bn (+15% y-o-y) and PAT of Rs.~23.8bn (+16% y-o-y).
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Nov-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 2QFY2019 Result Update Footwear November 3, 2018 Bata India Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY19 2QFY18
More informationMaruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `6,705 Target Price `8,552. 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile November 3, 2018 Maruti Suzuki India Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY19
More informationSanghvi Movers Ltd. Results above estimates. Figure 1: Actual Vs Religare Estimates. Financial highlights. Valuations and Recommendation
Institutional Equity Research Key data 3 June 28 Sector Capital Goods Market Cap Rs9bn/US$.2bn 52 Wk H/L (Rs) 337/15.5 BSE Avg. daily vol. (6m) 4,437 BSE Code 5373 NSE Code SANGHVIMOV Bloomberg SGM IN
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More informationBlue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `703 `867. 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.
Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable August 10, 2018 Blue Star Ltd Performance
More informationCCL Products BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `278 `360. 3QFY2018 Result Update Coffee. Historical share price chart.
Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 3QFY2018 Result Update Coffee February 5, 2018 CCL Products Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) Q3FY18 Q3FY17
More informationFY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
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More informationHCC BUY. Infrastructure April 10, QIP step in the right direction EVENT UPDATE. India Research. Bloomberg: HCC IN Reuters: HCNS.
Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 India Research Infrastructure April 10, 2015 EVENT UPDATE Bloomberg: IN Reuters: HCNS.BO BUY QIP step in the right direction has successfully
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More informationTV Today Network BUY. Performance Update CMP. `323 Target Price `498. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Investment Period 12 Months
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 3QFY2019 Result Update Media February 14, 2019 TV Today Network Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY19 3QFY18
More informationACC BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,397 Target Price `1,630. 3QCY2015 Result Update Cement
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More informationInox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `390 `505. 2QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart
2QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods October 27, 2015 Inox Wind Performance Highlights Quarterly Data (Consolidated) ( ` cr) 2QFY16 2QFY15 % chg (yoy) 1QFY16 % chg (qoq) Revenues 1,008 543 85.6 636 58.6
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2QFY217 Result Update Auto Ancillary November 8, 216 Amara Raja Batteries Performance Highlights BUY CMP `1,1 Target Price `1,167 Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY16 3QFY15 % chg (yoy) 2QFY16 % chg (qoq) Net Sales
More informationMusic Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `293 `475. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Media
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 3QFY2019 Result Update Media January 31, 2019 Music Broadcast Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY19 3QFY18 % yoy
More informationCMP* (Rs) 242 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 2. Market Cap. (Rs bn) 157 Free Float (%) 65.6 Shares O/S (mn) 630
4QFY17 Result Update June 02,2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 157 Free Float (%) 65.6 Shares O/S (mn) 630 Decent Performance to Continue; Maintain Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CGCEL) has delivered a
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More informationMusic Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `329 `475. 2QFY2019 Result Update Media. Historical share price chart.
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 2QFY2019 Result Update Media November 3, 2018 Music Broadcast Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY19 2QFY18 % yoy 1QFY19 % qoq
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May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 India Research Infrastructure May 27, 2015 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: SINF IN Reuters: SINF.BO HOLD Working capital ease to improve
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2QFY2019 Result Update Industrial Machinery October 26, 2018 GMM Pfaudler Limited Performance Update Standalone (` cr) Q2FY19 Q2FY18 % yoy Q1FY19 % qoq Net sales 99.2 93.2 29.8% 76.4 6.4% EBITDA 16.0 15.3
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More informationKey estimate revision. Year CY14 87,383 11,148 6, CY15E 1,20,126 17,838 9,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive view on EIM on the back of expected improvement in volume and margin at Royal Enfield (RE) and expected revival in VECV on the
More informationParag Milk Foods BUY. Performance Update CMP. `256 Target Price `330. 2QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products. Investment Period 12 Months
2QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products November 6, 2018 Parag Milk Foods Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) Q2FY19 Q2FY18 % yoy Q1FY19 % qoq Net sales 573 505 13.7% 549 4.4% EBITDA 58 50 16.3% 60-2.7%
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Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 India Research FMCG July 22, 2015 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: HUVR IN Reuters: HLL.BO SELL Higher A&P drove volume growth HUL s Q1FY16
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2904 Recommendation CMP Target Price BUY Rs. 283 Rs. 444 Better times ahead! reported a good set of numbers for the year FY18 and for Q4. Sales for the quarter increase by 11.8% YoY to Rs 1809.8 Cr and
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