Titan Company BUY. Back to Value Zone Validate Rating Upgrade. Institutional Equity Research. November 05, Target Price Rs428.

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1 CMP* (Rs) 369 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 328 Free Float (%) 47 Shares O/S (mn) 888 Titan Company Back to Value Zone Validate Rating Upgrade Titan Company delivered decent performance in 2QFY17 despite reporting flattish revenue due to sharp fall in gold jewellery sales and weak exports of watches. Its Revenue, EBITDA & PAT stood at Rs26.4bn (down 0.7% yoy), Rs2.6bn (up 42%) & Rs1.8bn (up 23.5% yoy), respectively. EBITDA grew robustly owing to increased share of studded jewellery and higher gross margins on plain gold jewellery. We peg Titan s Revenue & Earnings to see 11.4% & 17.7% CAGR, respectively through FY16-18E. Titan s stock price has corrected by 13% since our last downgrade, while benchmark indices fell by only 3%. We believe that stock has bottomed out at current levels and with consumers gradually accepting PAN disclosure norms, success of new jewellery collections and likely clarity on GST structure, we remain positive on medium term prospects of the Company, going forward. Considering these factors and rolling over target multiple to Sep 18, we revise our recommendation on the stock to from REDUCE with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs428 (from Rs383). Stagnant Top-line Jewellery growth but Margins Accelerate With the average gold prices rising by 21% yoy in 2QFY17, the demand for plain gold jewellery remained soft with Titan reporting gold grammage decline of 32%, for which jewellery sales remained flat at Rs19.9bn. However, segmental EBIT margins improved 490bps to 11% primarily due to two factors. Titan s studded jewellery promotions ran in 2QFY17 vs. 1QFY16, which aided its overall margin profile. Further, margins from plain gold jewellery business were also higher with increasing gold prices, as the making charges are benchmarked to gold prices. Its Management apprised about encouraging response the Company received for its new collections. Promotional sales of studded jewellery were 51% higher in 2QFY17 than last year s promotion. Headwinds Remain in Other Businesses Revenue from Watches Division dipped 5% yoy to Rs5.2bn due to sharp fall in export sales, while segmental EBIT margins fell by 280bps to 12.3% in 2QFY17. Eyewear sales grew by modest 6.6% yoy due to decline in sunglasses revenues, while prescription eyewear sales remained firm. Segmental margins dipped by 280bps to 2.1%. Outlook & Valuation We expect Titan to post revenues of Rs120.1bn & Rs138.6bn and PAT of Rs7.3bn & Rs9.8bn in FY17E & FY18E, respectively. Based on expected EPS of Rs11, the stock currently trades at P/E multiple of 33.5x FY18E earnings. Considering sharp fall in the stock since our last rating downgrade and rolling over of target multiples to Sep 18 along with increased visibility of the jewellery biz, we revise our recommendation on the stock to from REDUCE with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs428. Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance (9.6) (9.9) 5.7 Relative to Nifty (5.8) (8.5) 0.8 Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun'16 Sept'16 Promoter Public Year Stock Price Performance Note: * CMP as on November 04, Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Key Financials (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Sales 117, , , ,585 EBITDA 10,412 8,579 11,443 13,626 Net profit 8,231 7,058 7,265 9,777 EPS Rs) DPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Dividend yield (%) Source: Company, RSec Research Research Analyst: Sameer Deshmukh Contact: sameer.deshmukh@relianceada.com 1

2 Risks to the View ff ff Heightened regulatory oversight Delay in recovery in consumer demand Exhibit 1: Result summary (Rs mn) 2QFY17 2QFY16 % yoy 1QFY17 % qoq 1HFY17 1HFY16 % yoy Net Sales 26,364 26,546 (0.7) 27,825 (5.2) 54,189 53, Consumption of RM 18,036 19,774 (8.8) 19,745 (8.7) 37,781 39,051 (3.3) (% of Sales) Staff Costs 1,816 1, ,919 (5.4) 3,735 3, (% of Sales) Advertising ,027 (4.5) 2,008 2,186 (8.1) (% of Sales) Other Expenses 2,928 2, , ,303 4, (% of Sales) Total Expenditure 23,760 24,717 (3.9) 25,067 (5.2) 48,827 49,588 (1.5) Operating Profit 2,604 1, ,759 (5.6) 5,363 3, OPM Depreciation (0.5) EBIT 2,345 1, ,498 (6.1) 4,842 3, Interest (0.2) Other Income (15.2) 297 (6.8) (20.5) PBT 2,504 1, ,706 (7.5) 5,210 3, (% of Sales) Provision for Taxation , (% of PBT) PAT (recurring) 1,837 1, ,236 (17.8) 4,073 2, Extr. Income/(Expense) (30) - - (999) - Reported PAT 1,808 1, ,236 (19.1) 3,075 2, PATM Equity shares (mn) EPS (Rs) (17.8) Source: Company, RSec Research 2

3 Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 117, , , ,585 Total operating income 117, , , ,585 % chg 8.0 (5.2) Total Expenditure 107, , , ,959 Cost of Materials 87,536 81,888 86,266 99,840 Advertising Exp (Incl Promotion) 3,821 4,287 4,606 5,004 Personnel 6,257 6,812 7,357 8,313 Others 9,885 10,204 10,419 11,801 EBITDA 10,412 8,579 11,443 13,626 % chg (0.7) (17.6) (% of Net Sales) Depreciation& Amortisation ,073 1,187 EBIT 9,538 7,610 10,371 12,439 % chg (3.0) (20.2) (% of Net Sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income 1,828 1,520 1,353 1,467 (% of PBT) Recurring PBT 10,559 8,706 11,279 13,393 % chg 3.9 (17.5) PBT (reported) 10,559 8,706 11,279 13,393 Tax 2,328 1,648 3,045 3,616 (% of PBT) PAT (recurring) 8,231 7,058 8,234 9,777 % chg 11.1 (14.2) (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (Rs) Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) % chg 11.1 (14.2)

4 Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Share capital Reserves 30,032 34,258 39,167 45,849 Net worth 30,920 35,146 40,055 46,737 Total borrowings 998 1, Total liabilities 31,918 36,277 40,886 47,267 Gross block 12,534 14,031 15,531 17,191 Less: Acc. depreciation 5,702 6,345 7,417 8,605 Net block 6,832 7,686 8,113 8,586 CWIP 549 1, Deferred tax Investments Current assets 50,818 54,040 63,136 73,956 Inventories 40,474 44,422 47,730 55,080 Debtors 1,874 1,951 1,807 2,085 Cash 2,102 1,117 6,562 8,670 Loans and advances 6,368 6,549 7,037 8,121 Current liabilities 22,483 25,585 27,489 31,723 Provisions 4,322 1,904 4,402 5,080 Net current assets 24,013 26,551 31,244 37,153 Total assets 31,918 36,277 40,886 47,267 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net profit 8,231 7,058 7,265 9,777 Depn and w/o ,073 1,187 Deferred tax (103) (43) 0 0 Change in working cap (4,149) (3,523) 752 (3,801) Operating cash flow 4,853 4,462 9,090 7,164 Capital expenditure (1,724) (2,008) (989) (1,500) Investments/ Acquisition (61) (414) 0 0 Investing cash flow (1,784) (2,421) (989) (1,500) Free cash 3,129 2,454 8,101 5,664 Dividend (2,373) (2,270) (2,837) (3,095) Fresh equity Debt/Preference shares (7,065) 133 (300) (300) Financing cash flow (9,438) (2,137) (3,137) (3,395) Others (418) (889) 482 (160) Net change in cash (6,788) (986) 5,446 2,108 Opening cash 8,889 2,102 1,117 6,562 Closing cash 2,102 1,117 6,562 8,670 4

5 Key Ratios Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) Core EPS Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)

6 Rating Guides Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months >10% HOLD -5% to 10% REDUCE >-5% Reliance Securities Limited (RSL), the broking arm of Reliance Capital is one of the India s leading retail broking houses. Reliance Capital is amongst India s leading and most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial finance, equities and commodities broking, wealth management services, distribution of financial products, private equity, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. The list of associates of RSL is available on the website co.in. RSL is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called Report ) is prepared and distributed by RSL for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. RSL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. Risks: Trading and investment in securities are subject to market risks. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of trading / investment in securities will be achieved. The trades/ investments referred to herein may not be suitable to all categories of traders/investors. The names of securities mentioned herein do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns. The value of securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro and macro factors and forces affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including but not limited to counter party risk, market risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing of derivatives. Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by RSL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. RSL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to RSL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/opinions in respect of the securities and their respective issuers. None of RSL, research analysts, or their relatives had any known direct / indirect material conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any specific security on which views/opinions have been made in this Report, during its preparation. RSL s Associates may have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report. RSL, its Associates, the research analysts, or their relatives might have financial interest in the issuer company(ies) of the said securities. RSL or its Associates may have received a compensation from the said issuer company(ies) in last 12 months for the brokerage or non brokerage services.rsl, its Associates, the research analysts or their relatives have not received any compensation or other benefits directly or indirectly from the said issuer company(ies) or any third party in last 12 months in any respect whatsoever for preparation of this report. The research analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the said issuer company(ies)?: No RSL, its Associates, the research analysts or their relatives holds ownership of 1% or more, in respect of the said issuer company(ies).?: No Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying, distribution of this Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL. RSL s activities were neither suspended nor have defaulted with any stock exchange with whom RSL is registered. Further, there does not exist any material adverse order/judgments/strictures assessed by any regulatory, government or public authority or agency or any law enforcing agency in last three years. Further, there does not exist any material enquiry of whatsoever nature instituted or pending against RSL as on the date of this Report. Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of. RSL CIN: U65990MH2005PLC SEBI registration no. ( Stock Brokers: NSE - INB / INF / INE ; BSE - INB / INF / INE , Depository Participants: CDSL IN-DP IN-DP-NSDL , Research Analyst: INH ); AMFI ARN No

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