ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Strong improvement in asset quality
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- Gervais Walters
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Strong improvement in asset quality INDIA FINANCIALS Quarterly Update Top takeaways from Q3FY19 ICICI Bank s reported Profit after tax of Rs 16bn, behind expectations mainly due to higher provisioning as bank increased its PCR by 690bps qoq to 76.3%. NII at Rs 68.8bn was better than our estimate of Rs 67.3bn on higher NIMs and decent credit growth. NIM increased by 7bps QoQ to 3.4% owing to interest received on NPA a/cs (18bps). Slippages declined to Rs 21bn (2Q19: Rs 31.2). This includes Rs 10.7bn from retail and Rs 10.2 bn from corporate (Rs 2.3 bn from NFB to existing NPA) and SME. GNPA ratio improved by 79bps QoQ to 7.75%, while NNPA improved by 107bps to 2.58%. Retail NPA includes agri slippage of Rs2bn. BB and below portfolio declined by Rs 29.7bn to Rs 188.1bn QoQ. This was mainly driven by upgrade to investment grade (Rs 30.3bn). Loan growth at 11.7% (2Q19: 12.8%). Domestic loans grew 14.4% driven by retail/sme at 21.6%/12.7%, corporate book remain flat. Overseas book declined 5.4% yoy. The bank bought portfolio worth Rs68.6bn from NBFCs/HFCs (Housing, auto & SME). Management comments / concall takeaway NIM: Interest collections from NPA added 17 18bps to NIM during the quarter. Overseas margin was up 72bps qoq on higher interest collection on non performing loans hence is likely to remain volatile in this fiscal year. Slippages: Higher slippages from retail loan were on account of Rs 2bn slippage from rural portfolio most likely a result of farm loan waiver. Slippages from this portfolio peaks during June and Dec quarter hence it s likely to be elevated in June As of Dec 2019 bank had Rs 188bn of Kisan credit card loans outstanding. NBFC/HFCs: As of 31 Dec 2018, NBFC & HFCs constituted 4.6% of total exposure. Bank is open to lending to NBFCs and HFCs and buying retail portfolio. RoE Guidance: Management continue to maintain 15% RoE target by June 2020, Management will take a call on medium term RoE target in coming quarter. Credit Cost Guidance: Management expect normalize credit cost from 1QFY20 NPA sale of Rs 21bn was on account of resolution and entire amount was recovered in cash Outlook and valuation: As ICICIBC enters the NPA recovery phase, factors such as high credit growth, recovery of NPAs, and margin improvement should trigger earnings upgrades. We expect earnings growth of 33%/+229% in FY19/20 translating into RoA of 0.53%/1.54%. At CMP, ICICIBC trades at 1.5x FY21 core ABVPS of Rs 178 (valuing subsidiaries at Rs 95). We maintain buy on inexpensive valuations and a visible turnaround in the NPA cycle with a target of Rs 450, valuing the bank at 2x our FY21 core ABVPS. 30 January 2019 BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 365/ TARGET RS 450 (+23%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 6441 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 2234 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 383 / 257 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : PAR VALUE (RS) : 2 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Dec 18 Sep 18 Jun 18 FII / NRI : FI / MF : PUBLIC : GOVT : KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E Pre prov ROE (%) Pre prov ROA (%) Net Profit % growth EPS (Rs) Core BVPS (Rs) ROE (%) P/E (x) Adj P/BV (x) CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs bn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E NII PPP Core PAT EPS (Rs) Manish Agarwalla ( ) magarwalla@phillipcapital.in Sujal Kumar ( ) sukumar@phillipcapital.in (Rs bn) Q3FY19 Q3FY18 yoy % Q2FY19 qoq % vs. expect. % Comments Net interest income NII growth driven by higher NIM and credit growth NIM % bps bps 15bps Domestic NIM at 3.72%, International NIM at 0.77% Advances Credit growth driven by 21%/12% yoy growth in retail/sme advance Corporate advances Domestic flat yoy & overseas 5.4% yoy ( 13% yoy in USD) Retail advances Retail advances comprises of 59%, will continue to be the growth driver Deposit Term deposit grew 20% yoy, while CASA grew 15% yoy CASA CASA % (110bps) 50.8 (150bps) Daily average CASA ratio stood at 46% vs 39.5% in FY15 Core fee Fee income grew by 16% ; Retail fee constituted 73% of the Total fee Trading gain Operating expenses Employee exp. Increased 27% yoy, other opex increased 17% yoy Cost to income ratio % bps 46.1 (125bps) Cost income ratio decreased on higher revenue growth Provision PAT Net profit, below estimates due to higher provisions Slippage Rs 10.7 bn from Retail RS 10.2 from Corporate /SME GNPA% (7bps) 8.5 (79bps) NNPA% (162bps) 3.7 (107bps) Provision coverage ratio is at 76.3% (+690 bps qoq) Tier 1 Capital % bps 15.4 (24bps) RWA increased by just 4.6% yoy Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Standalone result update (Rs mn) Q3FY19 Q3FY18 yoy growth Q2FY19 qoq growth Interest Earned 1,62,804 1,36, ,51, Interest Expended 94,052 79, , Net interest income 68,753 57, , Net interest margins Non interest income 38,829 31, , Total Income 1,07,581 88, , Total operating expenses 46,117 38, , Payroll costs 17,340 13, , Others 28,777 24, , Pre provision Profit 61,464 50, , Provisions & Contingencies % Operating income PBT 19,023 14, , Provision for Taxes 2,974 1, , % of PBT Net Profit 16,049 16, , Equity 12,884 12, , EPS, Rs Advances 56,43,078 50,53, ,44, Deposits 60,67,547 51,74, ,86, Advances / Deposits (%) Gross NPAs Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs Net NPAs (%) CAR Tier I CAR Tier II CAR Total Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Sum of the parts valuation Share holding of ICICI Valuation per share Rs Valuation Criteria Value of Banking Business (1) 355 2x FY21E ABVPS of Rs178 ICICI Securities ltd 79.22% times FY20E PAT of Rs6Bn ICICI Prudential life insurance company ltd 54.90% times FY20E NBAP of Rs17.5bn+EV of Rs192bn ICICI Lombard General insurance company ltd 55.92% 28 25x FY20E PAT of Rs13bn ICICI AMC 51.00% 17 6% FY20E AUM of Rs3.7tln Housing finance business % 4 1.5x FY20E ABV of Rs17Bn Overseas banking subsidiaries 4 1x FY20E ABV of Rs28bn Value of subsidiary (2) 112 Less: Holding company 15% 17 Total (1) + (2) 451 Source: PhillipCapital India Research Stressed asset pool (Rs bn) 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 Watch list Standard restructured SDR Mgt change (outside SDR) : S4A Non funded exposure to stress loan Borrower with o/s > Rs1bn* na na na na na na Borrower with o/s < Rs1bn* na na na na na na Total % of Gross customer asset *erstwhile watch list included Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research. Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Interest on Loans Interest on Investments Others Total Interest Earned Total Interest Expended Net Interest Income Total non interest income Total Income Personnel Expenses Other Expenses Total Op expenses Net Inc (Loss) before prov Provision & contingencies Net Inc (Loss) before tax Provision for Income Tax Net Profit Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Assets Cash & Bal with RBI ,032 Loans, Adv & Int accrued 5,124 5,841 6,717 7,789 Investments 2,093 2,312 2,558 2,832 Fixed Assets (Net) Other assets Total Assets 8,792 9,785 11,036 12,479 Liabilities Share capital Reserves and Surplus 1,039 1,069 1,186 1,338 Preference capital Hybrid Capital Debt Borrowing 1,442 1,586 1,744 1,919 Total Deposits 5,642 6,412 7,334 8,389 Other liab incld prov Total Liabilities 8,792 9,785 11,036 12,479 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Valuation Ratios FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Earnings and Valuation Ratios Pre provision Operating RoAE (%) RoAE (%) Pre provision Operating ROA (%) RoAB (%) EPS (Rs.) Dividend per share (Rs.) Book Value (Rs.) Core Adj BV (Rs.) Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) Interest cost on IBL (%) NIM on IBA / AWF (%) Core fee Inc / AWF (%) Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) Op.Exp / TI (%) Op.Exp / AWF (%) Employee exps / Op exps (%) Tax / Pre tax earnings (%) Asset Quality GNPAs / Gr Adv (%) NNPAs / Net Adv (%) Growth Ratio Loans (%) Investments (%) Deposits (%) Networth (%) Net Int Income (%) Non fund based income (%) Non Int Exp (%) Profit Before Tax (%) (34.1) (18.9) Net profit (%) (30.8) (33.3) Asset / Liability Profile Avg CASA/ Deposits (%) Avg Adv / Avg Dep (%) Avg Invst / Avg Dep (%) Incr Adv / Deposits (%) Avg Cash / Avg Dep (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio: Tier I (%) CET1 (%) NNPAs to Equity (%) Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
5 Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History B (TP 405) B (TP 400) 300 B (TP 340) B (TP 336)B (TP 343) B (TP 400) B (TP 400) B (TP 364) B (TP 364) 250 N (TP 265) N (TP 265) J 16 M 16M 16 J 16 A 16 S 16 N 16 D 16 J 17 M 17 B (TP 340) J 17 A 17 S 17 N 17 D 17 J 18 M 18M 18 J 18 J 18 S 18 N 18 D 18 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15% SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%. Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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Steady on all fronts February 07, 2018 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / +91 22 66322258 Rating
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Asset quality worries intensifies May 08, 2015 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com +91 22 66322232 Rating Reduce Price Rs146 Target Price Rs155 Implied
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More informationEquitas Holdings. Rating: Target price: ABV: Target CMP. Rating. Rs Rs. 226 BUY
: price: ABV: How does our one year outlook change? Remains a idea in the SFB space owing to a well-diversified product profile, prudence in approaching the MFI space marked by the lowest ticket size amongst
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(SBIN IN) Rating: BUY CMP: Rs295 TP: Rs355 November 5, 2018 Q2FY19 Result Update Change in Estimates Target Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Rating BUY BUY Target Price
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Weak P&L performance, good b/s show PFC reported a disappointing P&L performance with Q3 PAT at Rs 16 bn (down 17.7% YoY; our est. Rs 18.6 bn), primarily led by sharp decline in NIM (down 35 bps QoQ at
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Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 4 Recommendation Hold CMP Rs. 67 Target Price Rs. 90 Sector Stock Details Banking BSE Code 590003 NSE Code Bloomberg Code KARURVYSYA KVB IN Market Cap (Rs Cr) Rs. 5,355
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Stable performance October 21, 2016 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / +91 22 66322258 Rating
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Better late than never, but guidance remains grim January 28, 2016 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com +91 22 66322232 Rating BUY Price Rs233 Target
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In line results; loan growth holding nicely February 14, 2015 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com +91 22 66322232 Rating BUY Price Rs1,066 Target Price
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On track; one off provisions impact earnings October 11, 2017 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com
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High prepayment remains a drag; earnings momentum to sustain April 20, 2016 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com
More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year
: price: ABV: How does our one year outlook change? While we continue to believe that SUF is a multi-year compounding opportunity in the asset and home financing segments, we take note of the under-performance
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Earnings led by large treasury gains; core performance weak July 28, 2017 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com
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Strong operating performance January 24, 2011 Abhijit Majumder abhijitmajumder@plindia.com +91 22 66322236 Umang Shah umangshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322242 Rating Accumulate Price Rs2,597 Target Price
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Asset quality under acute stress February 09, 2016 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com +91 22 66322232 Rating Reduce Price Rs88 Target Price Rs65 Implied
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Continuing to grow strong May 07, 2018 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Shweta Daptardar shwetadaptardar@plindia.com / +91 22
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May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Q4FY16 Result Update Asset quality showing no respite May 18, 2016 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com / +91-22-66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com
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Tractors drive Q2 performance; Accumulate November 11, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating Accumulate Price Rs1,242 Target Price Rs1,503 Implied Upside 21.0% Sensex 26,819 Nifty
More informationAxis Bank Ltd. For private circulation only. Volume No.. III Issue No October 08, 2018
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Volume No.. III Issue No. 188. Axis Bank Ltd. October 08, 2018 BSE Code: 532215 NSE Code: AXISBANK Reuters Code:
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: price: ABV: How does our one year outlook change? Retain our positive view on the stock. We continue to believe that SUF is a multi-year compounding opportunity in the asset and home financing segments.
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Remains strong in all areas January 20, 2018 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / +91 22 66322258
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Strong performance, but loan growth key to sustainability in earnings July 18, 2016 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah
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Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Mar-10 Jun-11 Sep-12 Dec-13 Mar-15 Jun-16 Sep-17 Dec-18 INSTITUTIONAL
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Enviable performance in challenging environment April 21, 2018 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Shweta Daptardar shwetadaptardar@plindia.com
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Steady quarter; return ratios to improve July 25, 2016 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / +91
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Strong on all counts April 26, 2018 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Shweta Daptardar shwetadaptardar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322245
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