GRTC Transit System Major Shifts Shaping RVA s Future

Transcription

1 GRTC Transit System Major Shifts Shaping RVA s Future

2 Shift #1 Population Shift

3 U.S. Population Today 322 Million Million Source: U. S. Census Reports

4 Virginia Projected Population Growth 9.6 M 8.0 M 8.8 M Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Virginia Employment Commission

5 Metro Richmond Projected Population Growth (MSA) 300K+ More People Coming To RVA By M M M Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Virginia Employment Commission population is now 1.3M

6 Shift #2 Urban Shift

7 World-wide Shift From Rural to Urban

8 Macro View 87% of Virginia s Population Lives in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) Almost 9 in 10 Virginians live in an MSA. Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, Demographics & Workforce Group, University of Virginia.

9 Virginia Population Growth 80% of Virginia s future population growth will occur in the Golden Crescent Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, Demographics & Workforce Group, University of Virginia.

10 It s Not Just About Downtown It s All of RVA s Activity Centers Map provided by Richmond Regional PDC

11 Shift #3 Age Shift

12 The Population Age Pyramid Old Age

13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1960 vs. 2030

16 In the U.S. the population over age 65 will grow from 38 million today to 72 million by 2033

17 RVA s % 13% 16% 19% 20% Source: US Census

18 20% of population is 65+

19 The Changing Ratio Under age 18 Age TODAY 2030

20 Fewer More

21 Key Question What s The Impact On Transportation Choices?

22 Using A Generational Lens To See The Future of Transportation Boomers

23 Boomers to 70 years old

24 Culture s Impact: Boomers Defining Events Birth of TV Prosperity Cold War Political Assassinations Watergate Rock n Roll Growth of Suburbia Women s Lib Civil Rights Vietnam Driven Transformational Self Centered Generational Values Personal Gratification Entitlement Control Work Ethic No to Status Quo Optimism

25 Society Transformers: End of Cold War Sexual Revolution Politics Rock & Roll Women s Lib Environment Civil Rights Gay Rights Internet Growing Older

26 Boomers Want To Age In Place

27 The Truth About Growing Older We Change as We Age

28 The Warranty Runs Out

29 29

30 30

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32 15-Minute Livable Community

33 Activity Centers

34 Car Lite An Life Integrated System

35 Using A Generational Lens To See The Future of Transportation Millennials

36 Millennials years old

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39 Culture s Impact: Millennials Defining Events Internet Chat School violence Hyper-parenting Multi-culturalism World Trade Center attacks Gulf War Iraq Recession Technology ++ Ambitious Co-dependent Purposeful Generational Values Confidence plus Civic duty Achievement Hyper connected Multi-tasking on steroids Fearless

40 Special

41 Groomed To Make A Difference

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43 Culture s Impact: Millennials Defining Events Internet Chat School violence Over-involved parenting Multi-culturalism World Trade Center attacks Gulf War Iraq Recession Technology ++ Ambitious Co-dependent Purposeful Generational Values Confidence plus Civic duty Achievement Hyper connected Multi-tasking on steroids Fearless

44 The Collective Self

45 Millennials Are Ushering In A New Expression of Community

46 HYPER Community

47 Micro-Apt.

48 New Sharing

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53 Millennials Are Much Less Carcentric

54 % of U.S. Pop with Driver s License % 31% 75% 49% 86% 68% 1978 Today 1978 Today 1978 Today Source: USDOT

55 For me this choice has almost nothing to do with being anti-car. Instead, it's about all the other things a "non-car life" represents - it helps me be more environmentally conscious, socially aware, and local. - Gen Y

56 15-Minute Livable Community

57 Car Lite An Life Integrated System

58 Key Question What s The Impact On Our Region s Transportation System?

59 A 21st Century Transit System Is Needed

60 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1960 vs. 2030

61 The Segment Not Expecting Significant Growth Labor Participation Rates (in millions) % Change: 163, % 154, ,457 41, % , , % 122, , ,285 18, Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections -13.3%

62 The Segment Not Expecting Significant Growth Labor Participation Rates (in millions) % Change: 163, % 154, ,457 41, % , , % 122, , ,285 18, Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections -13.3%

63 The Segment Not Expecting Significant Growth Labor Participation Rates (in millions) % Change: 163, % 154, ,457 41, % , , % 122, , ,285 18, Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections -13.3%

64 Placemaking

65 Portland

66 Denver

67 Austin

68 Nashville

69 What Do Millennials Want In A Place?

70 Basics For Millennials - Expectations for Safety, Variety of Employment, Quality and Affordability of Housing Top The List Raleigh NC Wash. DC Charlotte NC Austin TX Atlanta GA Denver CO Is safe 89% 87% 86% 91% 81% 90% Has a variety of employment options 90% 82% 83% 85% 82% 87% Quality and affordability of housing options 92% 83% 87% 87% 83% 83% Raleigh, NC n = 198 Washington, DC n = 199 Charlotte, NC n = 200 Austin, TX n = 194 Atlanta, GA n = 204 Denver, CO n = 195 Offers outdoor recreation options 71% 60% 71% 77% 71% 76% 54% 48% 60% 61% 54% 57% Offers a great food scene 76% 75% 78% 85% 77% 75% Embraces creativity 59% 55% 58% 69% 59% 64% Embraces innovation 70% 58% 61% 69% 60% 64% Is near the mountains 28% 24% 40% 17% 30% 64% Has access to water 59% 54% 64% 65% 54% 63% Is bike-able/walkable 46% 50% 41% 43% 44% 61% Has easy public transportation 42% 66% 40% 47% 46% 60% Embraces small business/startups/entrepreneurship Higher education options 76% 60% 60% 73% 62% 57% Is diverse 60% 63% 55% 69% 55% 55% Urban living environment 47% 59% 51% 60% 46% 53% Offers an active music scene 51% 36% 46% 53% 49% 49% Offers an active arts scene 42% 38% 44% 43% 42% 46% Has rich history 42% 47% 39% 41% 42% 42% Q20. When you think about a city as a place you d really want to live, how important are each of the following to you?

71 Placemaking Transportation Is Part of Placemaking Raleigh NC Wash. DC Charlotte NC Austin TX Atlanta GA Denver CO Raleigh, NC n = 198 Washington, DC n = 199 Charlotte, NC n = 200 Austin, TX n = 194 Atlanta, GA n = 204 Denver, CO n = 195 Is safe 89% 87% 86% 91% 81% 90% Has a variety of employment options 90% 82% 83% 85% 82% 87% Quality and affordability of housing options 92% 83% 87% 87% 83% 83% Offers outdoor recreation options 71% 60% 71% 77% 71% 76% Offers a great food scene 76% 75% 78% 85% 77% 75% Embraces creativity 59% 55% 58% 69% 59% 64% Embraces innovation 70% 58% 61% 69% 60% 64% Is near the mountains 28% 24% 40% 17% 30% 64% Has access to water 59% 54% 64% 65% 54% 63% Is bike-able/walkable 46% 50% 41% 43% 44% 61% Has easy public transportation 42% 66% 40% 47% 46% 60% Embraces small business/startups/entrepreneurship 54% 48% 60% 61% 54% 57% Higher education options 76% 60% 60% 73% 62% 57% Is diverse 60% 63% 55% 69% 55% 55% Urban living environment 47% 59% 51% 60% 46% 53% Offers an active music scene 51% 36% 46% 53% 49% 49% Offers an active arts scene 42% 38% 44% 43% 42% 46% Has Q20. rich When history you think about a city as a place you d 42% really want 47% to live, how important 39% are each 41% of the following 42% to you? 42%

72 75% Believe they will live in a place that does not require a car Source: Rockefeller Foundation

73 Transit Use Is Growing Faster than the U.S. Population and VMT Transit passenger miles U.S. population Highway VMT Source:

74 Multimodal Options Will Play An Increasingly Important Role In Creating A Sense Of Place

75 Thank You