Transitions. Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado

Transcription

1 Transitions Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado EDCC 2017 Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography.dola.colorado.gov

2 Transitions to Watch Disparate growth across state. Industrial transitions Retail consolidation Manufacturing more automation Transportation more automation Construction more automation Aging will impact economy. Increase racial and ethnic diversity Growing and slowing

3 Big Picture Pop Change US million, million or.7% Colorado - 5,540,500 Ranked 7 th fastest 1.7% - UT, NV, ID, FL, WA, OR 8 th absolute growth 91,700 TX, FL, CA, WA, AZ, NC, GA Range in Colorado +14,000-50

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6 Weld 2 nd fastest and 6 th in total change since 2010 Larimer 5 th fastest and 7 th total since 2010

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8 Age

9 Larimer Weld In Out Net Net Non CO In Out Net Net Non CO Weld Weld El Paso Texas Larimer Boulder Adams California Denver Boulder Jefferson California Adams Larimer Douglas South Carolina Boulder Denver Douglas Iowa Boulder Adams Pueblo Arizona Jefferson Arapahoe Collin TX Wyoming Jefferson Denver Larimer Wyoming El Paso Adams Taylor TX Massachusetts El Paso Jefferson Morgan Texas

10 100,000 80,000 Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration New Jobs Net Migration 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 State Demography Office v2015

11 Employment Transitions: Retail - Consolidation Manufacturing automation Transportation automation Warehousing - automation Larimer Weld NOCO NOCO Growth Total, All Industries 153, , ,318 48,005 Accommodation and Food Services 18,175 7,744 25,919 5,867 Administrative and Waste Services 8,518 5,688 14,206 2,220 Agriculture 798 3,982 4, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 3,006 1,213 4, Construction 10,426 9,410 19,836 6,026 Educational Services 17,295 9,289 26,584 2,573 Finance and Insurance 3,673 3,018 6, Health Care and Social Assistance 21,111 9,318 30,429 5,942 Information 2, , Management of Co ,442 2, Manufacturing 13,321 13,420 26,741 5,919 Mining, Oil, Gas 498 5,493 5,991 2,550 Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 4,314 2,347 6,661 1,392 Professional and Technical Services 10,662 2,587 13,249 2,524 Public Administration 7,926 5,210 13, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,721 1,279 4, Retail Trade 18,582 10,062 28,644 4,585 Transportation and Warehousing 3,151 3,423 6,574 1,794 Utilities , Wholesale Trade 4,359 3,929 8,288 1,963 QCEW 2016 Annual

12 Economic Drivers Larimer Weld Basic/Driver 107,985 78,168 Local Resident Service 82,530 53,025 Ratio 76% 68%

13 AGE

14 Why Are We Getting Old Fast? Currently very few people over the age th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 Baby Boomers Born ,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) By 2030, Colorado s population 65+ will be 77% larger than it was in 2015 growing from 719,000 to 1,270,000. (primarily from aging) Transition age distribution from young to more US average between 2015 and State Demography Office, Census Bureau

15 Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend AGE

16 Aging

17 Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier. depends Impact on occupational mix Labor Force Housing Income Downward Pressure Health Disabilities Transportation Public Finance Downward Pressure

18 Labor Force Tightening Largest share of population in highest labor participation rates hit peak in Boomers aging out but many staying longer Participation rate of 65+ increase from 14% in 1990 to 19% 2010 Approx. 1,000,000 workers aging out the next 20 years. Largest increase in leavers between Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%. Fewer Gen X Oldest Aged Industries - Education, Health, Utilities, Mining, Govt., Transportation. Higher un/under employment for year olds during recession. Lowest unemployment region in lowest unemployment state.

19 Median Home Value

20 Commuting to Jobs In Larimer and Weld 2014 Data Source:

21 More Racially and Ethnically Diverse

22 Census Bureau

23 Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, American Indian, NH Black, NH White, NH Asian, NH Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

24 Growing and Slowing

25 100,000 80,000 Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration New Jobs Net Migration 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 State Demography Office v2015

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28 Larimer and Weld Growth Rates

29 Forecast Fastest Region in State

30 Summary in Northern Colorado Migration how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? The Right Fit Aging we are getting old fast, is NOCO ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix (job growth), housing, etc. Ethnic/race diversity increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on income and labor force. Industrial transitions Ready for the transitions? What are your biggest risks or constraints? Automation, Consolidation - Retail Plan for the Transitions Discuss and Design, Implement when needed. What would we do if.

31 Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Demography.dola.colorado.gov