Economic Overview of the Wild, Wild West
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1 Economic Overview of the Wild, Wild West Christine Cooper, Ph.D. Regional Economist (West) Copyright 217 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission.
2 But first, let s answer the big question.. HOW LONG CAN THIS LAST?
3 How long can this expansion last? Annual % Change (seasonally-adjusted) months Source: BEA (7/28/217)
4 We ve won the bronz, and aiming for the silver Duration of past expansions (months) Average Source: BEA (7/28/217)
5 Why the big slowdown during recent expansions? Average annual GDP growth rates 14 7.% % % 4.9% 4.3% 4.5% 3.2% 4.3% 3.6% 2.7% 2.2% 4.2%? Average. Source: BEA (8/3/217)
6 ECON 11: GDP = C + I + G + NX Billions of chained (29) dollars 18, 14, 1, 6, 2, -2, Source: BEA (8/3/217) Net Exports Government Private Investment Consumption Total GDP
7 So how are consumers doing?
8 It seems like consumers are pretty happy! Consumer Confidence Indices Michigan Consumer Sentiment Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Sources: University of Michigan; Conference Board
9 Consumer spending growth has been pretty solid Annual % Change (Seasonally-adjusted) Source: BEA (8/3/217)
10 but are they digging into their savings? Personal Savings Rate (Annual rate; seasonally-adjusted) Source: BLS (8/3/217)
11 Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
12 Jobs continue to be added Monthly Change in Nonfarm Jobs (thousands) million jobs lost in two years million jobs added since Jan , Source: BLS (9/1/217)
13 Unemployment rates U-6 Headline Source: BLS (8/4/217)
14 Declining labor force participation. Percent of Population in the Labor Force Source: BLS (8/4/217)
15 . even of prime working-age population Percent of Population Aged in the Labor Force Source: BLS (8/4/217)
16 Wage growth has been anemic Average Weekly Earnings (Annual % change) Source: BLS (9/1/217)
17 A job is a job is a job. Since 21, we added about17 million jobs: Industry # of jobs added Food services: 2,46, Health services: 2,12, Admin: 2,9, Prof/tech: 1,75, Construction: 1,34, Manufacturing: 1,, Retail: 88, SW/Internet: 64,
18 A job is a job is a job. Since 21, we added about17 million jobs: Industry # of jobs added Average weekly earnings Food services: 2,46, $ 359 Health services: 2,12, 976 Admin: 2,9, 697 Prof/tech: 1,75, 1,5 Construction: 1,34, 1,13 Manufacturing: 1,, 1,8 Retail: 88, 564 SW/Internet: 64, 1,923
19 Private investment could drive growth. Private investment as % of GDP 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Source: BEA (8/3/217)
20 . but it is quite volatile Annual % Change (Seasonally-adjusted) Source: BEA (8/3/217)
21 Firms still have idle capacity Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate (seasonally-adjusted) Growth in investment in equipment does not happen while this is below 8% Source: Federal Reserve Board
22 Investment in residential construction is on the rise Billions of chained (29) dollars (seasonally-adjusted) 1, Source: BEA (8/3/217)
23 Are we building enough housing? New Privately-Owned Housing Starts (Units per thousand population; seasonally-adjusted) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
24 The great shift towards rentership % of housing units that are owner-occupied 62% 61% 6% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% % of housing units that are renter-occupied 34% 33% 32% 31% 3% 29% 28% 27% 54% 53% Owner-occupied units % Rental housing units % % 25% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
25 may finally be ending U.S. Homeownership Rate (not seasonally-adjusted) 7 Median Sales Price ($s, not seasonally-adjusted) US Homeownership Rate Median Sales Price Source: U.S. Census Bureau
26 Inflation remains tame 5.% 4.% 3.% PCE PCE Core Fed s target 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% Source: BEA (7/28/217)
27 Employers labor costs have grown very slowly Employment Cost Index (Annual % change in total compensation) Source: BLS (7/28/217)
28 How s the nation doing? Do we see a national recession looming? Not really But we may need to accept living in a slow growth-low inflation environment This could be due to the changing mix of industries and the influence of technology The consumer will continue to be the main driver So a healthy labor market is important But wage growth has been mediocre which is worrisome
29 E pluribus quattuor
30 CoStar s economic regions
31 BEA s eight economic regions
32 Regions have performed differently. Real GDP Growth (Average annual percent change 21 to 216) U.S. real GDP growth 21 to 216: 1.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 3.1% 1.4%
33 as have states in the West Real GDP Growth (Average annual percent change 21 to 216) US UT CA WA CO OR MT HI ID AZ NV NM AK WY (.8) (1.1) Source: BEA (5/11/217)
34 Most Western states are growing faster than the U.S. Real GDP Growth (Percent change 216 over 215) US WA OR UT CA NV HI AZ CO ID MT NM WY AK (.5) (3.6) (5.) Source: BEA (5/11/217)
35 Washington Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) 8 Unemployment rate: 4.5% Job growth (July): 2.2% Pop growth (216): 1.8% Per capita income: $45, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
36 Oregon Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) Unemployment rate: 3.8% Job growth (July): 2.9% Pop growth (216): 1.7% Per capita income: $4, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
37 Utah Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) Unemployment rate: 3.5% Job growth (July): 2.5% Pop growth (216): 2.% Per capita income: $37, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
38 California Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) 6 Unemployment rate: 4.8% Job growth (July): 1.7% Pop growth (216):.7% Per capita income: $43, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
39 Nevada Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) Unemployment rate: 4.8% Job growth (July): 2.7% Pop growth (216): 2.% Per capita income $39, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
40 Arizona Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) Unemployment rate: 5.1% Job growth (July): 1.2% Pop growth (216): 1.7% Per capita income: $37, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
41 Colorado Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) 6 Unemployment rate: 2.4% Job growth (July): 1.7% Pop growth (216): 1.7% Per capita income: $45, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
42 Texas Real GDP Growth (Year over year percent change) Unemployment rate: 4.3% Job growth (July): 2.4% Pop growth (216): 1.6% Per capita income: $44, Source: BEA (5/11/217)
43 Christine Cooper, Ph.D. (844) Copyright 217 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission.
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