Monthly US Lamb Market Update
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- Winfred Holmes
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1 April 2018 Monthly US Lamb Market Update May 2018 Issue Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney May 17, 2018 USA Domes c Lamb Market - Supply/Demand Situa on US domes c lamb slaughter normally declines following Easter and this year was no different. Weekly slaughter in the four weeks ending May 12 averaged 35,500 head/week compared to an average of 42,200 head per week in the weeks leading and immediately a er Easter. The slaughter levels of recent weeks were s ll about 8.8% higher than the same period a year ago but 9.8% lower than the five year average. As can be seen in the supply/demand balance table, lamb slaughter is expected to run modestly under year ago levels for the balance of the year. Some of the decline is expected to be offset by modestly higher weights. High lamb prices, especially imported product, has limited retail features going into Memorial Day weekend. Features during this me of year tend to be rela vely limited regardless because consumers have plenty of less expensive op ons. Retail features in the first two weeks of May are down some 35% compared to a year ago and 42% under the five year average. Wholesale domes c lamb prices were steady in the first four months of the year but remain above year ago levels. Cutout values for domes c lamb, a weighted average of the various lamb cuts sold at wholesale, was $373.25/cwt in April, 5% higher than a year ago and 8.1% higher than the five year average. Last year the cutout rose sharply in June, July and August, in part because of limited availability of imported product but also higher beef prices. Wholesale prices could be steady to modestly higher in the short term but lower lamb prices imply lower cutout values during the summer. The average price for slaughter lambs in April (Sioux Falls basis) was $158/cwt, 9.3% lower than a year ago but s ll 7.2% higher than the five year average. Last year slaughter lamb prices spiked in May and June, which is unlikely to be repeated this year. We expect slaughter lamb prices to be seasonally higher in May and June but well under last year s levels. Cold storage lamb inventory at the end of March was million pounds, 1.2% higher than the previous year. Seasonally inventories increase into the summer and fall, in part because end users look to accumulate product for year-end holidays. Inventories were up 10.9% compared to a year ago but s ll 2.3% lower than the five year average. Weekly USA Lamb & Sheep Slaughter '000 Head/Week. Source: USDA. Compiled and Analysis by Steiner Consulting THOUSAND POUNDS 40,000 35,000 5-Yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS, THOUSAND POUNDS, END OF MONTH INVENTORIES 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg NATIONAL RETAIL LAMB FEATURE REPORT: ACTIVITY INDEX Source: USDA. Latest data point is for May 18, ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-5-Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2 Page 2 Imported Lamb Supply and Price Trends Weekly lamb imports have shown significant improvement in recent weeks although for the year overall volume remains under last year s levels. In the four weeks ending May 5 US lamb imports from Australia averaged 1,098 MT per week, 40% higher than the same period a year ago. Some of this may be due to the fact that Easter last year was in mid April compared to the end of March this year. S ll, robust prices for lamb in the US market make it especially a rac ve and should help bolster imports in the near term. Imports from New Zealand during this period averaged 525 MT/week, 16% lower than a year ago. Lamb imports from South America and Europe remain minimal. As the summary table to the right shows, entries of lamb from Chile, currently the third largest importer were just 87MT through May 5 while imports from Uruguay were a mere 21MT. South American lamb is almost unknown in the US and many of the tradi onal users, whether at retail or foodservice, are not familiar with the product. The value of lamb imports from Chile, for instance, is significantly lower than product from Australia or New Zealand. In March, the average import value of Chilean lamb was 5,367 USD/MT compared to 9,418 USD/MT for New Zealand product and 6,090 USD/MT for Australia. Import product composi on likely has a lot to do with this, as New Zealand ships a lot of racks compared to legs and shoulders from Australia Imports of goat meat and mu on con nue to be quite limited. Australia accounts for almost all imported goat meat coming to the US and in the last four reported weeks imports averaged 487MT/week, 28% lower than the same period a year ago. About 75% of all US mu on imports come from Australia with rest coming from New Zealand. In the last four weeks Australian mu on imports averaged 370 MT/week, 4% higher than a year ago. As US lamb prices decline, in part due to increased compe- on from other proteins, it remains to be seen if Australian imported lamb will be able to sustain the lo y levels established since the start of the year. So far prices for racks are running between 16% and 24% above last year s levels while shoulder pries are up as much as 25% y/y. Imported lamb prices from New Zealand remains very firm as well, with cap off racks as much as 30% above year ago levels. US YTD Lamb Imported Volume. Metric Ton Data updated through May 5, 2018 Total Australia New Zealand Canada Chile Iceland Uruguay Spain Northern Ireland Mexico -0.8% -6.2% % 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Mexico Northern New Spain Uruguay Iceland Chile Canada Ireland Zealand Australia Total ,030 20,328 29, ,106 21,662 31,003 Australian Lamb Racks, Fresh, Cap-off, 28 oz/up. 4-WK Moving Avg. Weekly Prices. Source: USDA 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3 Page 3 US Domestic Lamb Cut and Primal Values Weekly Prices from USDA. Wt. Average 5/11/2018 5/4/2018 w/w 5/12/2017 y/y US$/cwt US$/cwt % ch. US$/cwt % ch. Foresaddle 204 Rack, 8-Rib, Medium % % 209 Breast % % 207 Shoulders, Square Cut % % 210 Foreshank % % Neck % % Foresaddle Value % % Hindsaddle 232 Loin, Trimmed, 4x % % 232E Flank, Untrimmed % % 233A Leg, Trotter Off % % Hindsaddle Value % % Carcass Value % % Hindsaddle, Foresaddle and Total Lamb Cutout Value Source: USDA Mandatory Price Reporting System 500 Foresaddle Value Hindsaddle Value 450 Lamb Cutout
4 Page 4 Domestic Lamb Cutout Value, USA Source: Agricultural Marketin Service, USDA. $ per 100 lb. Dressed Carcass Yr Avg. % ch. vs. Yr Ago % ch. vs. 5-Yr Avg. Jan % 5.7% Feb % 8.3% Mar % 8.2% Apr % 8.1% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Monthly Cutout Value Calculated Using Weekly Data USA Domestic Lamb Cutout Value Monthly Avg. Price; Source: USDA Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5 Page 5 Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis Monthly Average Prices, lb., $ per 100 lb Yr. Avg. % ch. vs. Yr Ago. % ch. vs. 5-Yr Avg. Jan % 4.5% Feb % 9.6% Mar % 13.7% Apr % 7.2% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis Monthly Average Prices, lb., $ per 100 lb Yr. Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
6 Page 6 Imported Lamb Price Summary Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Mandatory Price Reporting 2018 YTD Volume 2018 YTD Wt. Avg. $ 2018 YTD Implied Value May 22, 2017 May 7, 2018 May 14, 2018 % ch. vs. Week Ago % ch. vs. Year Ago Fresh/Chilled Pounds $/lb. Total $ AUS Shortloin, 1-Rib, 0x0 2,809,936 $ 5.53 $ 15,537,499 $ 5.59 $ 5.51 $ % -1.2% AUS Shoulder, Square-cut 1,305,667 $ 3.09 $ 4,036,581 $ 2.51 $ 3.06 $ % 24.9% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 28 oz/up 1,561,387 $ $ 15,909,456 $ 9.18 $ $ % 16.4% AUS Shortloin, 1-Rib, 1x1 66,906 $ 5.23 $ 349,918 $ 5.19 $ - $ - n/a n/a AUS Leg, semi bnls 366,830 $ 4.22 $ 1,548,344 $ 3.95 $ 4.00 $ % 4.2% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 295,364 $ $ 3,317,549 $ 9.49 $ $ % 24.1% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 153,987 $ $ 1,731,244 $ 9.68 $ $ % 25.7% AUS Foreshank, VP 146,937 $ 3.67 $ 539,544 $ 3.12 $ 3.31 $ % 8.0% Subtotal 6,707,014 $ 6.41 $ 42,970,134 $ 5.94 $ 6.49 $ % 9.5% Frozen AUS Leg, Long 3,393,984 $ 2.39 $ 8,117,506 $ 3.33 $ 3.58 $ % 9.3% AUS Leg, bnls 2,213,447 $ 2.39 $ 5,293,976 $ 3.58 $ 3.87 $ % 8.8% AUS Shoulder, Square-cut, bnls 1,034,368 $ 2.39 $ 2,473,933 $ 3.62 $ 3.72 $ % 1.4% AUS Shoulder, Square-cut 2,022,420 $ 2.39 $ 4,837,090 $ 2.84 $ 2.60 $ % -4.8% AUS Foreshank, LP 953,623 $ 2.39 $ 2,280,812 $ 2.34 $ 2.66 $ % 8.3% AUS Hindshank, VP 242,584 $ 2.39 $ 580,196 $ 2.22 $ 2.76 $ % 21.0% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 28 oz/up 260,004 $ 2.39 $ 621,860 $ 9.31 $ $ % 15.9% AUS Hindshank, LP 186,589 $ 2.39 $ 446,271 $ 2.77 $ 3.06 $ % 20.0% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 353,632 $ 2.39 $ 845,794 $ 8.93 $ 9.53 $ % 17.5% AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 354,654 $ 2.39 $ 848,238 $ 9.02 $ $ % 14.6% NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 1,187,240 $ 2.39 $ 2,839,562 $ 8.79 $ $ % 30.3% NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, oz 925,180 $ 2.39 $ 2,212,784 $ 9.04 $ $ % 28.1% NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 20 oz/up 449,725 $ 2.39 $ 1,075,622 $ 8.33 $ $ % 25.5% NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 12 oz/dn 47,994 $ 2.39 $ 114,789 $ 8.99 $ $ % 28.0% Subtotal 13,625,444 $ 2.39 $ 32,588,434 $ 4.68 $ 5.30 $ % 15.5% Please note that the prices, volume and sales value reported above represents only subset of total US lamb imports. It only reflects the data reported through the Mandatory Price Repor ng System. It is only for nego ated sales, no formula sales. Trade from smaller importers and traders is not included in the summary above. Data that does not meet the confiden ality guidelines also is not included in the above table.
7 Page 7 USA LAMB & MUTTON QUARTERLY SLAUGHTER, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND DISAPPEARANCE. CARCASS WT. EQUIVALENT (CWE) =A x B A B C D E F G =C+D-E+F+G Year & Quarter Slaughter % ch. Avg. Carc. Wt. % ch. Comm. Lamb Prod. % ch. Imports % ch. Exports % ch. Farm Production Adj. to End. Stocks to Balance Total Disapp. % ch. 000 Head Y/Y Lbs. Y/Y (Mil. Lbs.) Y/Y (Mil. Lbs.) Y/Y (Mil. Lbs.) Y/Y (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) Y/Y st Qtr % % % % % % 2nd Qtr % % % % % % 3rd Qtr % % % % % % 4th Qtr % % % % % % Year 2, % % % % % % st Qtr % % % % % % 2nd Qtr % % % % % % 3rd Qtr % % % % % % 4th Qtr % % % % % % Year 2, % % % % % % st Qtr % % % % % % 2nd Qtr % % % % % % 3rd Qtr % % % % % % 4th Qtr % % % % % % Year 2, % % % % % % st Qtr % % % % % % 2nd Qtr % % % % % % 3rd Qtr % % % % % % 4th Qtr % % % % % % Year 2, % % % % % % st Qtr % % % % % % 2nd Qtr % % % % % % 3rd Qtr % % % % % % 4th Qtr % % % % % % Year 2, % % % % % % 2018 * 1st Qtr % % % % % % * 2nd Qtr % % % % % % * 3rd Qtr % % % % % % * 4th Qtr % % % % % % * Year 2, % % % % % % 2019 * 1st Qtr % % % % % % * 2nd Qtr % % % % % % * 3rd Qtr % % % % % % * 4th Qtr % % % % % % * Year 2, % % % % % % * Estimates Source: This balance sheet was developed and is maintained by the Livestock Market Informa on Center
8 Page 8 Lamb & Sheep Slaughter. Monthly. '000 Head Yr Avg. % ch Yr Ago % ch 5-Yr Avg. Jan % 1.8% Feb % -0.6% Mar % 1.0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA Lamb & Sheep Slaughter. Monthly. '000 Head Monthly Data. Source: USDA Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
9 Page 9 Lamb Yearling Dressed Weights. Monthly. Avg. Pounds per Carcass Yr Avg. % ch Yr Ago % ch 5-Yr Avg. Jan % 2.3% Feb % 2.5% Mar % 1.2% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA Lamb Yearling Dressed Weights. Monthly. Avg. Pounds per Carcass Monthly Data. Source: USDA Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA
10 Page 10 Lamb Yearling Production. Monthly. Carcass Wt. Basis. Million Lb Yr Avg. % ch Yr Ago % ch 5-Yr Avg. Jan % 2.5% Feb % -2.0% Mar % 1.0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA Lamb Yearling Production. Monthly. Carcass Wt. Basis. Million Lb. Monthly Data. Source: USDA Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
11 Page 11 Y/Y Ch. in Mar. 18 vs. Mar 17 US Mutton, Goat, Lamb Imports Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons World Total -2,511 Other Chile 3 35 Iceland -5 Mexico -8 Canada New Zealand(*) Change in total imports: -15% Australia(*) -1,647-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1, Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 5-Yr Avg
12 Page 12 Y/Y Ch. in Mar. 18 vs. Mar 17 US Mutton, Goat, Lamb Import Value ($) Source: USDA/FAS Units: US Dollars World Total -12,688,619 Other Chile 58,273 10,165 Mexico -14,291 Canada Iceland New Zealand(*) Change in total import value: -11% -1,122,249-61,509-72,417 Australia(*) -11,486,591-20,000,000-15,000,000-10,000,000-5,000, ,000,000 $ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 120,000, ,000, ,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000, Yr Avg 20,000,000
13 Page 13 TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2018 TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2017 Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - Mar 2018, MT Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - Mar 2017, MT New Zealand 21% New Zealand 22% 36K 40K Australia 79% Australia 78% Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*) Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, Yr Avg Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*) Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Yr Avg 2, $ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*) Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000, Yr Avg $ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*) Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000-5,000, Yr Avg
14 Page 14 60, HEAD JANUARY 1 SHEEP & LAMB INVENTORY Source: USDA 1942: 56,213 50,000 40,000 30, : 33,170 20,000 10, : 11, : 5, , 5,230
15 Page 15
16 Page mil lb. Domestic Lamb Production + Imports Imports US domestic production
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