Marketing on Margin NPB Swine Educators Inservice. Mark Storlie ISU Swine Field Specialist or
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1 Marketing on Margin 2011 NPB Swine Educators Inservice Mark Storlie ISU Swine Field Specialist or
2 Margin Blitz. Markets Eye on Margin ISU Extension Education efforts
3 Markets. Fundamental USDA Hogs & Pigs Report Cold Storage Export / Import (Live & Pork) USDA Crop Production WASDA reports Technical
4 Lean Hogs Dec LT Weekly 7/15/11 $ /21/09 $43.07
5 Lean Hogs June LT Weekly 4/1/11 $ /5/09 $56.37
6 Corn Dec LT Weekly 6/27/08 $7.99 9/2/11 $7.79
7 US $ Dec LT Weekly
8 US $ Dec LT Monthly 7/01 $ /08 $71.05
9 US $ - Dec Corn - Dec
10 Eye on margin.
11 Revenue: Market Hog $$$$ Expense: Pig Expense - $$ CORN - $$ SOYBEAN MEAL - $$ = Crush Margin Remaining Expenses: Feed Other and Additives $ Grind, mix deliver $ 3.62 Veterinary and medical $ 4.15 Labor and administration $ 5.67 Operating interest $ 2.67 Utilities $ 2.57 Transportation $ 2.00 Facilities $ 8.45 $ Profit/Loss: $$$ - $$ $$
12 swinecrush.htm ISU Est. Breakeven $40.48
13 ISU Est. Breakeven $40.48
14 Wean-Finish Crush Margin ($/Head) by Sale Month Pigs Placed in Next 5 Months: Wednesday Futures Prices for Lean Hogs, Weaned Pigs, Corn and SBM ISU Est. Breakeven $40.48
15
16 GT Data: Finisher ( ) Data Base Avg. Enter Wt Mkt. Wt Mortality 3.57% ADG 1.68 F/G to 3.81 Top 10% Sort on ADG % to 3.31 Top 10% Sort on F/G % to 2.72 Feed/hd Mkt
17 Why have group records... Communication lenders, veterinarian, labor, etc. Management Decisions establish Cost of Production know the PIG CRUSH for your operation monitor changes in feed or medication evaluation of genetic sources compare building types compare contract producers
18 Mange Risk by Managing Margin Cost of Production Budget Management Manage your Margin If you can t measure it, then you can t manage it. - origin unknown
19 What Tools do you have in your Tool Box??? Cash marketing Forward Contracts Futures Contracts Options Contracts Insurance based products Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Livestock Gross Margin (LGM)
20 Revenue: Market Hog $$$$ Expense: Pig Expense - $$ CORN - $$ SOYBEAN MEAL - $$ = Crush Margin Remaining Expenses: Feed Other and Additives $ Grind, mix deliver $ 3.62 Veterinary and medical $ 4.15 Labor and administration $ 5.67 Operating interest $ 2.67 Utilities $ 2.57 Transportation $ 2.00 Facilities $ 8.45 $ Profit/Loss: $$$ - $$ $$
21 ISU Est. Breakeven $40.48
22 ISU Extension Education. ISU Website Margin Maker Workshops 3 to 4 hr; education and participant work with simulated marketing for 2 group of pigs (Excel) Risk Mgmt Seminar Nov.-Dec. 2011, 3 locations Follow up 4 to 6, 1 hr session over 6 month period via live or web. Participants will paper manage a 2,400 head finisher.
23 Failing to plan is a plan to fail - Effie Jones Questions mstorlie@iastate.edu Snouts & Tails - Electronic Newsletter 6x/year
24 Monthly Marketing Distribution 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 80's 2000's
25 ISU Estimated Returns Farrow to Finish, Average profit per head = $ $9.76 $ $ $3.13 $ $31.42 $21.03 $3.14 -$ $26.04 Should this impact pig flow? Does this impact your breeding?
26 ISU Estimated Returns Farrow to Finish, Average profit per head / month May June July Aug $17.69 $18.78 $15.84 $12.05 Nov Dec Jan - $ $ $4.90 Avg. Profit $16.09 Avg. Profit - $5.86 $ Litter (9 pigs market) $ $-52.74
27 MKT month MARKETED - ISU Estimated Livestock Returns, Farrow to Finish, 10 yr monthly average profit Seasonal Impact Jan $ Apr $ 3.94 Jul $ Oct $ Feb $ 1.49 May $ Aug $ Nov $ Mar $ 0.49 Jun $ Sep $ 3.57 Dec $ months Farrow 4 months Bred Farrowing Rate - month Farrowed (Pig ChampTM: Farrowing Rate Report) Jan 74.00% Apr 89.00% Jul 90.00% Oct 81.00% Feb 81.00% May 86.00% Aug 88.00% Nov 77.00% Mar 85.00% Jun 89.00% Sep 87.00% Dec 76.00% Farrowing Rate - month Bred Jan 86.00% Apr 88.00% Jul 77.00% Oct 81.00% Feb 89.00% May 87.00% Aug 76.00% Nov 85.00% Mar 90.00% Jun 81.00% Sep 74.00% Dec 89.00%
28 Planned Seasonal Management Maximize Minimize Hog Mkt May-Jun-Jul-Aug Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan $144.81/litter $-52.74/litter Lactation Feed Intake Jun-Jul-Aug-Sept Breeding Target (#) Jul-Aug-Sept-Oct Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar Observed Farrowing Quality Matings Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb Jul-Aug-Sept-Oct all year!!
29 Planned Seasonal Management Maximize Minimize Hog Mkt May-Jun-Jul-Aug Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan $144.81/litter $-52.74/litter Quality Matings Jul-Aug-Sept-Oct Cull Repeat Breeders Jun-Jul-Aug-Sept Increase Gilt Pool Jun-Jul-Aug-Sept Maternal Mating Aug-Sept-Oct-Nov Jan-Feb? Oxytocin in semen Jul-Aug-Sept-Oct?
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