EU Pigmeat Market Situation. Meat Market Observatory Economic Board meeting 02 October 2018

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1 EU Pigmeat Market Situation Meat Market Observatory Economic Board meeting 2 October 218

2 EXCHANGE RATE INDEX/EURO 14 Index of daily exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the Euro US Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Russian Rouble Chinese Yuan UK Pound Sterling

3 PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G + 5% + 4% + 3% + 2% + 1% + % - 1% - 2% - 3% - 4% Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (218 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) (' heads) 216 vs vs vs. 217 Experts 218 vs. Experts 217 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year GIP 218 vs. GIP 217 Real Slaughter 216 vs vs vs. 217 Expe rts 2 18 vs. Expe rts 2 17 GIP 2 18 vs. GIP 2 17 Q1 + 1.% - 1.% + 2.6% +.9% + 1.1% Q % - 3.3% + 2.9% + 1.1% + 1.1% Q % -.8% + 1.2% + 2.% Q4 +.1% +.% + 1.5% + 1.5% Full year + 1.3% - 1.3% + 1.2% + 1.4%

4 PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G EU pigmeat slaughter in , GIP and expert estimations for 218 ('1 heads) Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q GIP 218 Experts 218f

5 P R O D U C T I O N 23.2% 14.8% 1.8% 6.9% 6.% 5.7% 5.5% 5.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5%.8%.5%.2% -.7% -.8% -2.1% % E V O L U T I O N IN HEADS -2.2% -2.4% -3.3% -4.8% -5.% -9.9% 2.7% Change in Pig Slaughter (' Heads) 218/217 (up to June) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Source: Eurostat -15% SK RO LV BG ES PL EE LT NL BE IE UK DK PT SE FR HU HR AT CY DE SI IT CZ LU EL MT FI EU

6 P R O D U C T I O N 23.4% 15.% 9.5% 9.1% 8.2% 7.8% 6.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.%.6%.5% -.3% % E V O L U T I O N IN TONNES -.7% -1.% -2.2% -3.4% -9.5% -9.7% 3.7% 3% Change in Pig Slaughter (' tonnes) 218/217 (up to June) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Source: Eurostat -15% SK RO LV PL BG ES IE EE NL UK LT BE DK EL SE HR HU PT FR AT IT CZ DE SI CY LU FI MT EU

7 PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G Pig Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Eurostat

8 EU Prices /1 kg carcass weight P I G P R I C E S EU E V O L U T I O N EU Prices 38 Evolution since last week Evolution since last month Evolution since last year Average (S-E) % - 4.6% - 1.7% Class S % - 4.2% - 1.6% Class E % - 5.1% - 11.% Piglet 35.3 /head - 2.% - 4.% %

9 P R I C E S C A R C A S E S E U E V O L U T I O N AVERAGE CLASSES S & E EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S) ( / 1kg/cw) Week 38 latest price ==> EUR/1 kg/cw 19 Evolution compared same period last year : - 1.7% Average (13-17)

10 P R I C E S C A R C A S E S EU E V O L U T I O N Classe E Classe S Classe R Aug-217 Aug-218 Aug-217 Aug-218 Aug-217 Aug-218 CY EL IT EL PT ES PT SI SK BG AT LU IT UK FI UK SE LT SI FI DE SE RO UK FI DE LV AT SK DK RO LU EE SK ES DE HU EU HU HR HR EE ES PL LV CZ LU LV PL LT EE FR CZ IE IE DK LT BE FR NL NL DK EU BE EU

11 P R I C E S P I G L E T S EU E V O L U T I O N EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head) Week 38 latest price ==> EUR/head 65 6 Evolution compared same period last year : % Average (13-17) Piglet Piglet Piglet - 218

12 In Euros R E M A I N D E R P I G EU E V O L U T I O N Remainder for pig fattening Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price ( /1 kg) Average remainder (since March 212)

13 In Euros R E M A I N D E R P I G EU E V O L U T I O N Remainder for pig fattening I 213 I 214 I 215 I 216 I 217 I 218 Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price ( /1 kg) Average remainder (since March 212)

14 Jan-Jul Tonnes carcase weight T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS EU Trade of PIG products

15 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s IMPORT EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) Jan-Jul 18 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan- Jul 17 Switzerland % % % % % -5% Serbia % % 614 2% % % 33% Norway % % % % % 13% Chile % % % % % 14% USA % % % % 973 5% -2% China 917 3% 38 1% 25 1% % 539 3% 35% Other % % 3 1 9% % % Extra-EU % change - 6% - 1% + 11% +.9%

16 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes c. weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Millions EUR) Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other

17 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s Imports of selected PIG products in Tonnes (carcase weight) Jan Jan Jan FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS

18 South Korea United States Philippines (up to Jun) Canada Australia South Korea United States Philippines (up to Jun) Canada Australia Japan Mexico (up to Jun) Japan Mexico (up to Jun) Qty in 1 Tonnes China + H. Kong China + H. Kong W O R L D P I G M A R K E T I M P O R T S PIG MAIN IMPORTERS Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA 217 (up to July) 218 (up to July) Excl. Live animals

19 T R A D E E U E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) Jan-Jul 18 Compared to tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 17 China % % % % % - 2% Japan % % % % % + 4% South Korea % % % % % + 16% Philippines % % % % % + 11% Hong Kong % % % % % - 36% USA % % % % % + 14% Ukraine % % % % % + 34% Australia % % % % % - 6% Serbia % % % % % + 42% Vietnam % % % % % + 33% Taiw an % % % % % - 3% Ivory Coast % % % % % + 1% Other % % % % % Extra-EU % change + 11% + 23% - 8% +.9%

20 in Millions EUR T R A D E EU E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight) Tons (cw) EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Millions EUR) Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other

21 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU Exports of selected PIG products in Tonnes (carcase weight) Jan Jan Jan FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

22 Chile Canada China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Jun) Russia (up to Jun) Chile Canada China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Jun) Russia (up to Jun) Qty in 1 Tonnes United States United States EU EU W O R L D P I G M A R K E T E X P O R T S PIG MAIN EXPORTERS Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA 217 (up to July) 218 (up to July) Excl. Live animals

23 W O R L D P I G M A R K E T PIG PRICES EU, BR, CAN, US World weekly average Pig prices in Euro/ 1kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA) EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E (35.88%). US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcass prices ( BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/indicador/suino.aspx) CAN = Quebec Index 1 Hogs Weighted Average prices (agr.gc.ca) EU US BR CAN 7 5

24 Follow market updates via the Meat Market Observatory > Pigmeat

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