NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade October 11 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change From Last Month Contribution Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 4% -1 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays % -1 * Plans to Increase Inventories -2% 3 * Expect Economy to Improve -22% 4 * Expect Real Sales Higher -6% 6 * Current Inventory -1% -2 * C urrent Job Openings 14% -1 * xpected Credit Conditions -12% 1 * Now a Good Time to Expand 6% 1 * Earnings Trend -27% -1 * T otal Change 9 * Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Index of Small Business Optimism gained.8 points ending a six month decline, but about the only good thing to say about it is that the Index didn t go down. The net percent of owners expecting real sales to improve became less negative by 6 points, rising to a negative 6 percent. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months rose 4 points to a negative 22 percent, not exactly a euphoric development. LABOR MARKETS September was another bad job creation month. Fourteen (14) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point. Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (unchanged), and 12 percent plan to reduce their workforce (unchanged), yielding a net seasonally adjusted 4 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 1 point loss from August. In a normal expansion, this Index component would have double digit readings. CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell 2 points to 5 percent of all firms where it has been stalled for several years. The record low of 45 percent was reached in July. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months fell 1 point to percent, a recession level reading that has typified the recovery to date. Money is available, but most owners are not interested in a loan to finance the purchase of equipment they don t need. Six percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (seasonally adjusted), up 1 point but 2 points lower than January. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months was a negative 22 percent, up 4 points from August, but 32 percentage points lower than January. INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months lost 1 point, falling to a net negative percent, more firms with sales trending down than up. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales gained 6 points to a net negative 6 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), 19 points below January s reading but 6 points better than August. A net negative 11 percent of all owners reported growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), 2 points worse than the August reading. For all firms, a net negative 1 percent (down 2 points) reported stocks too low. Stocks are not excessive, but with pessimistic sales expectations, there is no need to order more of anything. Plans to add to inventories gained 3 points, to a net negative 2 percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted), so more firms still plan reductions than plan additions. This survey was conducted in September 11. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn. Seven hundred twenty-nine (729) usable responses were received a response rate of 19 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

4 INFLATION Seventeen (17) percent of the NFIB owners reported raising their average selling prices in the past three months (down 2 points), and 22 percent reported price reductions (up 3 points). Seasonally adjusted, the net percent raising selling prices was 6 percent, up 5 points. The continued weakness in sales trends has blunted small business s ability to raise prices after two years of price cutting to liquidate excess inventories, but there is still some pressure on prices as some firms are making price hikes stick. Seventeen (17) percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months, 4 percent plan reductions. Seasonally adjusted, a net 14 percent plan price hikes, down 2 points. EARNINGS AND WAGES Reports of positive earnings trends were 1 point worse in September at a net negative 27 percent of all owners, not a pretty picture, but still one of the best readings in years. Not seasonally adjusted, 17 percent reported profits higher (down 3 points), and 4 percent reported profits falling (unchanged). Corporate profits are at a record high level as a share of GDP, but the story is very different on Main Street. Compensation costs are rising, but not at a rapid rate. Six percent reported reduced worker compensation and 14 percent reported gains yielding a seasonally adjusted net 8 percent reporting higher worker compensation, a 1 point decline. A net seasonally adjusted 7 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, unchanged from August. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report CREDIT MARKETS Three percent reported financing as their #1 business problem. So, for the overwhelming majority, credit supply is not a problem. Ninety-two (92) percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. Eight percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied (the record low is 4 percent), and 51 percent said they did not want a loan (12 percent did not answer the question, presumably uninterested in borrowing as well). The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 12 percent, a 1 point improvement over August. Owners are still not overly confident that financial markets will be prepared to meet their credit needs and, for most, it seems like borrowing issues are irrelevant. Thirty-one (31) percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 1 point and only 3 points above the record low. A net percent reported loans harder to get compared to their last attempt (asked of regular borrowers only), down 3 points. The weak recovery provides little incentive for borrowing to support expansion or buy new equipment, even if interest rates are low. Five percent of owners reported higher interest rates on their most recent loan, while 3 percent reported getting a lower rate.

5 COMMENTARY After a strong vote of no confidence in the effectiveness of the deal made between Congress and the President, pessimism continued to prevail. The Small Business Optimism Index gained.8 points (virtually no change) based on a reduction in the pessimism of sales prospects and expected business conditions, both of which remain solidly negative. Consumer confidence (University of Michigan survey) barely budged from the August reading, the lowest since 198. And disagreement with Administration policies continued at record levels among U.S. households. It was a loss of confidence that caused consumers to cut spending in 8Q4, plunging the economy into a deep recession as the U.S. population raised the saving rate from 1 to 6 percent causing a reduction in spending of half a trillion dollars at annual rates. And, with no confidence in government policies today, 131,, employed consumers who could spend more do not because they fear the future. Since these workers are very concerned about our inability to get spending and debt under control and restore growth, promises to have even more stimulus will increase the level of concern for most if not all of these workers will spend less, not more. If consumers fear the path we are on, then less is more, policies that reduce the size of government will increase confidence. For those who are unemployed, the President s jobs program will be very ineffective if enacted. Promising temporary tax cuts financed by permanent income tax increases will not play well, especially for small business owners who pay taxes based on personal, not corporate tax rates. Saving school teachers, police and fire fighters is the cover the President uses to justify hundreds of millions in new gifts (from taxpayers!) to state governments. This doesn t create jobs and only some of those jobs saved will be police and fire fighters and teachers, who are often funded at the community level. A very misleading ploy to save jobs of union workers. And building roads and bridges will not re-employ the tens of thousands of residential construction workers as the President would have you believe. The skill sets are not well matched and government programs generally require union workers so most small construction firms will not qualify. In addition, tax breaks for hiring are similarly misdirected. If an owner can t justify hiring a worker now, getting a tax break of a few thousand dollars will not change the math. The credit only lasts a year, then the full cost of the worker is on the firm. If an added employee can not pay its way with added value before the cut, why would this tax change alter the math? Twenty-eight (28) percent said poor sales was their top business problem and the tax break doesn t change that. Better to use the tax gift to keep the firm operating for those who are currently employed at the firm. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) 1 Index Value (1986=) 9 8 OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) 3 OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January 1986 to September Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook September 11 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates 1 1 Cost of Expansion 3 1 Political Climate 13 4 Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January 1986 to September 11 - Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason September 11 Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Next Three Months) January 1986 to September Expected -3 Actual -4 ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to September 11 4 Net Percent of Firms 3 - Planned - Actual -3 ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants * * Percent 4 3 EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January 1986 to September 11 Planned Job Openings - 9 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to September Planned Higher 5 Actual Higher -5

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Increase and Net Percent Compensation Actual Prices Actual Compensation NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent of Firms CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January 1986 to September * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (All Borrowers) 6 36/4 37/6 36/6 38/5 38/5 39/5 38/4 44/4 34/4 36/7 34/4 36/5 7 36/5 4/5 35/5 38/4 39/6 36/4 37/5 35/4 37/5 36/6 32/4 32/7 8 34/5 35/4 32/6 34/5 34/7 35/5 32/7 35/6 33/6 31/6 31/7 32/6 9 33/8 32/8 29/ 3/8 28/9 3/ 28/ 3/7 3/ 29/9 29/ 28/8 27/11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/ 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Avg. Short-term Rate (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January 1986 to September Rate Relative (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January 1986 to September Actual -25 Planned -3

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 15 5 Percent -5 - Inventory Plans Inventory Satisfaction -15 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to September Actual Planned Percent NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures 9 8 Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land 13 9 AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $, to $49, $5, to $99, $, No Answer 1 2 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM September 11 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Inflation, Big Business, Insurance and Regulation January 1986 to September 11 Big Business Inflation Insurance Regulation Percent of Firms 3 18 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent of Firms 4 3 SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Taxes, Interest Rates, Sales and Labor Quality January 1986 to September 11 Taxes Interest Rates & Finance Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent 15 5 Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself?