NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad November 212 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change from Last Month Contribution to Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 4% * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 22% 1 * Plans to Increase Inventories -1% * Expect Economy to Improve 2% * Expect Real Sales Higher 3% 2 * Current Inventory % 1 * Current Job Openings 16% -1 * Expected Credit Conditions -8% -1 * Now a Good Time to Expand 7% * Earnings Trends -26% 1 * Total Change 3 * (Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation)

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Senior Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Optimism Index gained.3 points, increasing to In the 4 months since the recovery started in July 29, the Index has been higher only eight times. And, it has never exceeded 95. The pre-recession average for the Index is 1. There is nothing of note in the composition of last month s Index improvement. All the changes were small and have varied randomly for the past few years, keeping the Index in a narrow recession level range, vacillating between for much of the last three years. Of note is the percentage of owners who are uncertain as to whether business conditions will be better or worse six months from now. It hit a survey record high, beating the previous record reached in the Carter Administration by 8 percentage points. Not knowing the direction of the economy will always have a dampening impact on spending and hiring. LABOR MARKETS Owners slowed the reduction of workers in the October survey, raising the average change in employment per firm to.2 workers, up from a seasonally adjusted -.23 in September. The improvement ended a run of 4 months of employment reductions. Seasonally adjusted, 11 percent of the owners reported adding an average of 2.7 workers per firm over the past few months, and 1 percent reduced employment an average of 2.9 workers. The remaining 79 percent of owners made no net change in employment. The percent of owners reporting hard to fill job openings fell 1 point to 16 percent of all owners, the second monthly decline in a row. Job creation plans remained weak, with a net 4 percent planning to increase employment, unchanged from September and 6 points below the August reading. CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past 6 months rose 3 points to 54 percent, still in maintenance mode. Of those making expenditures, 37 percent reported spending on new equipment (up 3 points), 19 percent acquired vehicles (up 3 points), and 14 percent improved or expanded facilities (unchanged). Six percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (up 2 points) and 12 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (unchanged). Overall, there was no sign that capital spending might be returning to levels more consistent with past recovery periods. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose one point to 22 percent. Seven percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (unchanged) compared to 14 percent in September 27. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months was also unchanged at a net 2 percent, hardly an optimistic outlook. Overall, the survey shows no improvements in the capital spending indicators. This survey was conducted in October 212. A sample of 1,799 small-business owners/members was drawn. Two thousand and twenty-nine (2,29) usable responses were received a response rate of 19 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

4 SUMMARY INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past 3 months was negative 15 percent, 2 points worse than in September, confirming the weak growth in non-durable consumer spending in the third quarter. Twenty-two (22) percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem, historically high, but down from the record 34 percent reading last reached in March 21. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales rose 2 points to 3 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted). The reading is down 9 points from the year high of net 12 percent reached in February. The pace of inventory reduction continued, with a net negative 8 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from September. For all firms, a net percent (up 1 point) reported stocks too low, still a very positive report as this indicates minimal excess inventory in the hands of owners. Plans to add to inventories remained weak at a net negative 1 percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted), more plan to reduce stocks than plan to increase them. INFLATION Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was 5 percent, down 1 point. With sluggish consumer spending, there is little opportunity to raise prices and make it stick. Nineteen percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months (down 2 points), 4 percent plan reductions (up 1 point). Seasonally adjusted, a net 16 percent plan price hikes, down 3 points. It appears that the Fed s forecast (hope) for continued low inflation is a reality on Main Street. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PROFITS AND WAGES Reports of positive earnings trends improved one point, rising to a net negative 26 percent in October. Four percent reported reduced worker compensation and 15 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 11 percent reporting higher worker compensation (down 3 points). A net seasonally adjusted 9 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, down 1 point from September. Earnings are the major source of capital for small firms to finance growth and expansion (and repay debts incurred to invest in their firms). CREDIT MARKETS Eight percent of the owners reported that all their credit needs were not met and only 3 percent reported that financing was their top business problem, compared to 2 percent citing taxes, 22 percent citing weak sales and 19 percent citing unreasonable regulations and red tape. The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 8 percent, 1 point worse than in September. Thirty (3) percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 1 point from September. A net 7 percent reported loans harder to get compared to their last attempt (asked of regular borrowers only), 1 point higher than September. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 5.8 percent,

5 COMMENTARY The labor markets regained their statistical footing. After California went missing in the claims reports, jobless claims rose to nearly 392, the week after and fell to 369, after that. These are numbers more consistent with the current level of economic activity. Five million workers are still long term unemployed, 4 percent of the total pool of unemployed. The average duration of unemployment is about 4 weeks (median is 2), historically very high. The labor force participation rate is under 64 percent, below the 66 percent pre-recession level. This explains a large share of the decline in the unemployment rate; people who give up looking for a job and leave the labor force are not unemployed. The 893, new jobs in the Household Survey (largely part-time) were inconsistent with private GDP growth of 1.3 percent. Historically, such a large number occurred during strong growth, as in June 1993 when GDP grew at an 8 percent annual rate. Uncertainty about the election has been a major impediment to spending because the Presidential candidates offered very disparate policies for the economy. That is now resolved. We invested $2 billion and lots of time in change but the day after the election looked pretty much like the day before: same President, same Senate and House, more or less. Certainly the major players on the stage are the same, the question is has the script changed? If the Republicans were looking for a new cast and an opportunity re-write the past, that hope is gone. If the President was looking for a re-take of the House, that cast will be the same as well. But, the play must go on and it will. Only a re-write of the script by both casts will produce progress. But writers haven t talked for months Investors who had bet on a change expressed their discontent with a major sell-off in the stock market. This of course creates buying opportunities for those who were hoping for no change and got it. There will be many autopsies of the now deceased election results, and many explanations of the outcome. For small business owners, all the uncertainties remain although the odds of resolving them in one direction or another will have changed for many. But overall, it is now unlikely that anything will happen in November to make them more optimistic about the future, as has been the case for many months, even years now. Let s see what the New Year and the new Congress brings, as it is likely that current Congress will simply kick the can at least until January. One thing for sure, the economic pressure to do something will be large indeed. The November survey will reveal a combination of the effects of the election and hurricane Sandy. Regional differences in the performance measures should be large. Stay tuned. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) 11 Index Value (1986=1) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook October 212 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates 1 1 Cost of Expansion 3 2 Political Climate 19 9 Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason October 212 Reason Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Subsequent Three Months) January 1974 to October 212 Expected Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 212 Net Percent Actual Planned ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants * * Percent EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 212 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to October 212 Planned Higher Actual Higher

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months Prices (Thick Line) PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Increase Labor Compensation (Thin Line) 11 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (Borrowers Only) 27 36/5 4/5 35/5 38/4 39/6 36/4 37/5 35/4 37/5 36/6 32/4 32/ /5 35/4 32/6 34/5 34/7 35/5 32/7 35/6 33/6 31/6 31/7 32/ /8 32/8 29/1 3/8 28/9 3/1 28/1 3/7 3/1 29/9 29/1 28/ /11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/1 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 28/9 3/7 29/ /7 31/7 27/8 31/8 29/9 29/7 3/7 31/7 32/8 28/8 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Relative (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Actual (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS* Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago *Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 212 Actual -25 Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS 15 Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 1 5 Percent Satisfaction Plans CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 8 Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Percent 4 2 Actual Plans NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $1, to $49, $5, to $99, $1, No Answer 2 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM October 212 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Insurance, Big Business Competition, Inflation, and Regulation January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 212 Big Business Insurance 3 Inflation Regulation Percent of Firms NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Sales, Fin. & Interest Rates, Labor Cost, Labor Quality, and Taxes January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 212 Taxes Interest Rates Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report