William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS

Transcription

1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade November 29 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Seasonally Change From Contribution Index Component Adjusted Level Last Month Index Change Plans to Increase Employment -1% 3 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 17% -1 * Plans to Increase Inventories -3% 3 * Expect Economy to Improve 11% 3 * Expect Real Sales Higher -4% 2 * Current Inventory -3% -3 * Current Job Openings 8% * Expected Credit Conditions -16% -1 * Now a Good Time to Expand 7% -2 * Earnings Trends -4% * Total Change 4 * Column 1is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.

2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. In Th i s Issue Summary...1 Commentary....3 Optimism Outlook...4 Earnings...6 Sales...7 Prices...8 Employment....9 Compensation...1 Credit Conditions Inventories...14 Capital Outlays Most Important Problem...18 Survey Profile...19 Economic Survey....2

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Index of Small Business Optimism gained.3 points, rising to 89.1 (1986=1), 8.1 points higher than the survey s second lowest reading reached in March (the lowest reading was 8.1 in 198:2). In the recession period, the Index was below 9 in only one quarter. In this recession, the Index has been below 9 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn. The October gain was minor, so the good news is still less bad news. Four of the ten Index components posted gains, two were unchanged, four declined. LABOR MARKETS Eight percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, unchanged from August and September. Over the next three months, 16 percent plan to reduce employment (unchanged), and nine percent plan to create new jobs (up two points), yielding a seasonally adjusted netnegative one percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a three point improvement. In the last three months, eight percent of the owners increased employment, but 19 percent reduced employment (seasonally adjusted), both statistics are better than September readings. However, the job generating machine is still in reverse. CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months rose one point to 45 percent of all firms, one point above the record low reading logged in September. Capital spending, and the demand for credit to financing it, is on the sideline. Plans to make capital expenditures over the next few months fell one point to 17 percent, just one point above the record low last set in August. Seven percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities, down two points from September. A net 11 percent expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, up three points from September but historically low. INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher sales in the past three months remained low at negative 31 percent, down five points and only three points above the record low last set in July. Widespread price cutting continued to contribute to reports of lower nominal sales. After a one point drop in September, the net percent of owners expecting real sales gains improved two points to a negative four percent of all owners, still negative but 27 points better than the March record low level. A net-negative 26 percent of all owners reported gains in inventory stocks, two points worse than September. For all firms, a netnegative three percent (down three points) reported stocks too low. Plans to add to inventories improved three points to a negative three percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted). This survey was conducted in October 29. A sample of 1,799 small business owners/members was drawn. Two thousand fifty-nine (259) usable responses were received a response rate of 19 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

4 SUMMARY INFLATION The weak economy continued to put downward pressure on prices. Ten percent of the owners reported raising average selling prices, but 3 percent reported price reductions. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising prices was negative 17 percent, far more cutting prices than raising them. Plans to raise prices fell one point to a seasonally adjusted net five percent of owners, 33 points below the July 28 reading. On the cost or input side, the percent of owners citing inflation as their number one problem (e.g. costs coming in the back door of the business) fell two points to two percent and only four percent cited the cost of labor, so neither labor costs nor materials costs are seriously pressuring owners. PROFITS AND WAGES Reports of positive profit trends were unchanged at a net-negative 4 percentage points. The persistence of this imbalance is bad news for the small business community and a contributor to the reported difficulties in obtaining credit. No doubt we are losing firms in this recession. For those reporting lower earnings compared to the previous three months (52 percent, up two points), 62 percent cited weaker sales, four percent each blamed rising labor costs and higher materials costs, two percent blamed higher insurance costs, and eight percent blamed lower selling prices. Four percent blamed regulatory costs. Owners continued to reduce compensation at a record pace, with 11 percent reporting reduced worker compensation. Reports of increased compensation fell three points to 11 percent. Seasonally adjusted, a net four percent reported raising worker compensation, down three points from September and only one point above June s record low reading. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report CREDIT MARKETS For those who want to borrow, getting a loan continues to be difficult, with a net 14 percent reporting loans harder to get than in their last attempt. Thirty-three (33) percent reported regular borrowing, unchanged from September. Overall, loan demand remains weak due to widespread postponement of investment in inventories and record low plans for capital spending. In addition, the continued poor earnings and sales performance has weakened the credit worthiness of many potential borrowers. This has resulted in tougher terms and higher loan rejection rates (even with no change in lending standards), and there is no rush to borrow money like that observed in the pre-1983 period when regular borrowers made up over 5 percent of all owners (even with a 21 percent prime rate of interest). Twenty-nine percent reported all their borrowing needs met (down 1 point) compared to 9 percent who reported problems obtaining desired financing (down 1 point, not seasonally adjusted).

5 COMMENTARY The Administration has recently jumped on the small business bandwagon, although little important action has been taken. It sounds like the Administration thinks the reason small firms are not hiring is that they are not able get credit. Although credit is harder to get, financing is cited as the most important problem by only four percent of NFIB s hundreds of thousands of member firms. Although a nice gesture, enhancing SBA lending programs will not help much too many owners have no reason to borrow. Record low percentages cite the current period as a good time to expand, more owners plan to reduce inventories than to add to them, and record low percentages plan any capital expenditures. In short, the demand for credit is in short supply and failing to understand the more major problems facing small business leads to bad policy. Less than one percent of small businesses have government sponsored loans, so the reach of this new policy will not be large. What small business needs is customers, but very little in the stimulus provided consumer spending support and all Washington talks about now is raising taxes and passing health care, likely a job destroyer. A $5 billion payroll tax cut last January would have been helpful as opposed to the earmarks in the stimulus bill for which spending has not even started, but such suggestions were squashed. Statistically, we are in a huge V recovery, with Gross Domestic Product rebounding from a 6.4 percent decline in the first quarter to 3.5 percent growth in the third. That is quite a comeback, a very steep V. But unless the consumer comes back, the recovery is likely to turn into the square root recovery (\Γ), slower, flatter growth on the recovery leg of the V. Federal government spending rose over seven percent but most of the reported jobs saved or created were in the public sector. Although there are other benefits to this spending (better schools or some road repairs for example), the average amount spent per reported job saved or created is nearly $25, - and many of these saved jobs were counted when an existing employee got a raise! Overall, the small business job machine is still in reverse, due to continued declines in reported sales, rising labor costs, and a need to cut costs. Reported capital spending is at historic low levels, owners are still, on balance, reducing inventory stocks (only seven percent reported increases, 32 percent reported reductions) so orders to wholesale and manufacturing firms for new inventory are weak. Price cutting is rampant (though slowing) which combined with lower real sales continues to produce record reports of earnings declines, one reason capital spending remains low. Few firms report credit availability as a problem, though those who are borrowing report more difficulty and tougher terms than during the expansion. Events in Washington are not supportive of more optimism about the future another reason not to spend or hire. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) 11 Index Value (1986=1) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook October 29 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates 2 1 Cost of Expansion 2 1 Political Climate 1 3 Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 29-1 Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason October 29 Reason Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Subsequent Three Months) January 1986 to October 29 Net Percent Expected -3 Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October 29 Net Percent 7 6 Actual 5 4 Planned ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants * * Percent EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 29 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to October Planned Higher 5 Actual Higher

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months Prices (Thick Line) PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Increase Labor Compensation (Thin Line) 11 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January 1974 to October * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (Borrowers Only) 24 36/6 36/8 38/6 37/6 34/5 34/5 37/5 35/7 36/5 35/5 36/3 39/ /4 39/4 39/5 38/6 41/4 39/5 34/5 36/4 34/4 34/5 39/4 35/ /4 37/6 36/6 38/5 38/5 39/5 38/4 44/4 34/4 36/7 34/4 36/ /5 4/5 35/5 38/4 39/6 36/4 37/5 35/4 37/5 36/6 32/4 32/ /5 35/4 32/6 34/5 34/7 35/5 32/7 35/6 33/6 31/6 31/7 32/ /8 32/8 29/1 3/8 28/9 3/1 28/1 3/7 3/1 29/9 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Relative (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Actual (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS* Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago *Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Actual -25 Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS 15 INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 1 5 Percent -5-1 Satisfaction Plans CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 29 6 Percent 4 2 Actual Plans NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $1, to $49, $5, to $99, $1, No Answer 1 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM October 29 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Insurance, Big Business Competition, Inflation, and Regulation January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 29 Big Business Inflation Insurance Regulation Percent of Firms NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Sales, Fin. & Interest Rates, Labor Cost, Labor Quality, and Taxes January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 29 Taxes Interest Rates Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent Agriculture Retail Wholesale Transportation Manufacturing Construction Professional Services Financial Percent One NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Two Number of Full and Part-Time Employees Three - Five Six - Nine Ten - Fourteen Fifteen - Nineteen Twenty - Thirty-Nine Forty Or More No Reply 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 Small Business Survey Questions Page in Report Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself?... 19