NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade July 215 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change from Last Month Contribution to Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 12% 3 21% Plans to Make Capital Outlays 24% 1 7% Plans to Increase Inventories % 4 29% Expect Economy to Improve -4% 5 36% Expect Real Sales Higher 6% 2 14% Current Inventory -6% -2-14% Current Job Openings 25% 1 7% Expected Credit Conditions -5% -1-7% Now a Good Time to Expand 12% 3 21% Earnings Trends -19% -2-14% Total Change 14 1% (Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation)

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Director, Research and Policy Analysis Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.3 points to After giving up over 4 points in June, the Index clawed back 1.3 points in July, a familiar theme now, which has produced the most grudging gains in the Index s history and still not above the 42 year average of 98. Expectations for business conditions and real sales gains accounted for half of the net gain in the Index components. LABOR MARKETS Job creation was flat in July. On balance, owners added a net.5 workers per firm in recent months, better than June s -.1 reading, but still close to the zero line. Fifty-seven percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 5 points), but 48 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Sixteen percent reported using temporary workers, down 2 points. Twenty-five percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point, but 4 points below the highest reading for this year. A net 12 percent plan to create new jobs, up 3 points reversing last month s loss. CAPITAL SPENDING Sixty-one percent reported capital outlays, up 3 points on top of a 4 point gain in June. Overall, a nice pickup in the frequency of spending reports. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose 1 point to 24 percent, not a strong reading historically but among the better in this expansion. Owner expectations for the economy appear to be for a continuation of under-performance. Investment plans remain historically sub-par, and owners have little interest in borrowing to support investment spending that promises little return. PROFITS AND WAGES Earnings trends continued to deteriorate, posting a 2 point decline after a 1 point drop in June, falling to a negative 19 percent. Far more owners reporting profits lower quarter to quarter than higher. Reports of increased labor compensation rose 2 points to a net 23 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), still shy of the high of 25 percent for this year. Labor costs will continue to put pressure on the bottom line. Fuel prices are falling again, that helps, but an avalanche of higher regulatory costs is descending on the bottom line, federal, state and local. A seasonally adjusted net 15 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, the lowest reading since October, 213 (up 4 points). Official reports of hourly wages suggest a chunk these gains are being absorbed by mandated benefits, as little is getting through to take home pay. This survey was conducted in July 215. A sample of 1,799 small-business owners/members was drawn. One thousand four hundred and ninty-five (1,495) usable responses were received a response rate of 14 percent.

4 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SUMMARY INVENTORIES AND SALES After an exciting surge in May, the net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months remained unchanged a net negative 6 percent. Ten percent cited weak sales as their top business problem, unchanged. Expected real sales volumes posted a 2 point gain, rising to a net 6 percent of owners expecting gains, a long way down from the 2 percent reading in December 214. Overall, not a real positive outlook, but at least positive. The net percent of owners reporting inventory increases was unchanged a net percent (seasonally adjusted). The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as too low fell 2 points to a net negative 6 percent as weak sales made current stocks look excessive. The net percent of owners planning to add to inventory rose 4 points to a net percent, a 4 point gain. Clearly small business owners don t plan on making much of a contribution to inventory accumulation. This will occur only if sales are even weaker than expected, not a positive way to build inventory for GDP. INFLATION Thirteen percent of the NFIB owners reported reducing their average selling prices in the past 3 months (down 1 point), and 17 percent reported price increases (down 1 point). Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was 5 percent, unchanged. There are no signs of inflation bubbling up on Main Street, should be good news, but maybe not for the Fed. Seventeen percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months (down 2 points). Two percent plan reductions (down 1 point), far fewer than actually reported reductions in past prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 17 percent plan price hikes (down 1 point). Normally, low inflation is good news, but in our up-side-down world, the monetary authority wants more, not less of it. CREDIT MARKETS Four percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, historically low. Thirty-two percent reported all credit needs met, and 51 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan. For most of the recession, record numbers of firms have been on the credit sidelines, seeing no good reason to borrow. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 22 percent citing taxes, 21 percent citing regulations and red tape and 1 percent citing weak sales. The availability of qualified labor has replaced weak sales in third position, cited by 13 percent as the number one problem. In the Great Recession, no more than 5 percent cited credit availability and interest rates as their top problem compared to as high as 37 percent in the Volcker era. Thirty percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 1 point. The average rate paid on short maturity loans rose 2 basis points to 5.2 percent. Loan demand remains historically, owners can t find many good reasons to borrow to invest when expectations for growth are not very positive.

5 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report COMMENTARY GDP growth for the first quarter was finally revised to.6 percent after an excursion into negative territory. Second quarter growth is initially estimated at 2.3 percent, but with revisions to come. Domestically, the economy feels so flat because it was, and still is. Exports have been strong in the recession, explaining a lot of things such as the performance of the large firms with profits at a record high share of GDP. The stock market is at record high levels, yet the output of USA, Inc. is less than impressive as shown below. Exports and foreign operations contributed to record high profits for the Large Firm division of USA, Inc. which has been hoarding cash and repurchasing shares, not investing in the real economy. When comparing the Index against the real growth in domestic spending (GDP + imports exports), they are clearly highly correlated. Appearing at first blush to be coincident, the Index is really a leading indicator as the surveys are taken in the first month of the quarter while government statistics are available a month after the end of the quarter. Thus, the January survey predicts the growth in domestic spending for the first quarter, and the first estimates from the government come well after the end of the quarter. And the latest data suggests some more strength in the domestic economy is coming, but not a whole lot. With small business accounting for half of the private GDP, prospects for a strong second half of growth seem modest at best. The Large Firm division will be coasting, not growing or investing, and the Small Business division is not in the mood for rapid expansion and hiring. But even so, the economy grows driven by population growth and investment to cover depreciation and technological obsolescence, but not a lot more. Washington s plans to eliminate carbon and redistribute the wealth are growth depressants that offer little in the future beyond declining living standards and reduced opportunities. Congress appears to have little stomach to resist as every Congress runs deficits (Gingrich excepted), regardless of the political party in control. Unfortunately, politicians rely more and more on promises of subsidies or free stuff to get elected. This can t be extrapolated very far into the future before disasters are the most likely outcomes.

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) 11 Index Value (1986=1) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 5 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook July 215 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Expansion 5 5 Political Climate Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason July 215 Reason Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 7 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS SALES SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Subsequent Three Months) January 1974 to July 215 Net Percent Expected -3 Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months

10 8 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS PRICES Net Percent PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Actual Planned ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 Percent 9 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Planned Job Openings

12 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to July 215 Planned Higher Actual Higher

13 Prices (Thick Line) Labor Compensation (Thin Line) 11 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Increase

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 Relative (thick line) Actual (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (Borrowers Only) 21 27/11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/1 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 28/9 3/7 29/ /7 31/7 27/8 31/8 29/9 29/7 3/7 31/7 32/8 28/8 28/6 29/ /6 29/7 29/7 31/6 28/5 29/5 3/5 31/5 28/6 28/6 32/4 32/ /5 29/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 27/6 3/6 28/4 28/6 29/4 29/4 32/ /4 33/3 35/5 31/4 3/4 32/5 32/4 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter

16 14 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS* Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago *Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter 215 Actual Planned

17 15 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months

18 16 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months Percent -5-1 Satisfaction Inventory Plans CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Percent 4 2 Actual Planned ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 17 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $1, to $49, $5, to $99, $1, No Answer 1 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months

20 18 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent of Firms Percent of Firms SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Problem SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Current July 215 One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM 4 Insurance, Big Business Competition, Inflation, and Regulation January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter 215 Big Business Insurance 3 Inflation Regulation SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Sales, Fin. & Interest Rates, Labor Cost, Labor Quality, and Taxes January Quarter 1974 to July Quarter Taxes Interest Rates Sales Labor Quality

21 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees

22 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 21 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself?