NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSI NES S O P T IMISM I NDEX C O M PONENT S

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade November 211 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSI NES S O P T IMISM I NDEX C O M PONENT S Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change From Last Month Contribution Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 3% -1 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 21% 1 * Plans to Increase Inventories % 2 * Expect Economy to Improve -16% 6 * Expect Real Sales Higher -4% 2 * Current Inventory % 1 * C urrent Job Openings 14% * xpected Credit Conditions -11% 1 * Now a Good Time to Expand 7% 1 * Earnings Trend -26% 1 * T otal Change 9 * Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.3 points, nudging the Optimism Index up to 9.2, below the year-to-date average of 91.1 and only slightly better than the average since January 29 of As was the case in September, the gain in the Index was primarily a result of less negative views about the prospects for real sales and business conditions. Hardly the basis for strong economic growth. LABOR MARKETS NFIB owners reported an overall reduction in employment for the 5 th month in a row posting an average reduction of.1 workers per firm in the October survey. Seasonally adjusted, 12 percent of the owners added an average of 3.1 workers per firm over the past few months, but 11 percent reduced employment an average of 3.9 workers per firm, better than September but not good enough to address the unemployment problem. Fourteen (14) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported hard to fill job openings (unchanged). Over the next three months, 9 percent plan to increase employment (down 2 points), and 12 percent plan to reduce their workforce (unchanged), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 3 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, down 1 point from September and 2 points below August. In a decent expansion, this should exhibit double digit readings CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past 6 months rose 2 points to 52 percent. The record low of 44 percent was reached in August 21. Of those making expenditures, 36 percent reported spending on new equipment (up 1 point), 18 percent acquired vehicles (up 1 point), and 13 percent improved or expanded facilities (unchanged). Five percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (down 1 point) and 11 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (up 2 points). These numbers have not changed all year, range bound around current levels. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose 1 point to 21 percent, a recession level reading that has typified the recovery to date. Money is available, but most owners are not interested in a loan to finance the purchase of equipment they don t need. Seven percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (seasonally adjusted), up 1 point but still lower than January s reading. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months was a negative 16 percent, 6 points better than September, but still 26 percentage points lower than January. A net negative 4 percent of all owners expect improved real sales volumes, 26 percent report poor sales as their top business problem. Clearly not an environment for making investment bets on economic growth. This survey was conducted in October 211. A sample of 1,799 small-business owners/members was drawn. Two thousand seventy (277) usable responses were received a response rate of 189percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

4 SUMMARY INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past 3 months lost 2 points, falling to a net negative 12 percent, more firms with sales trending down than up. Twenty-six (26) percent of the owners indicated poor sales as their top business problem, not surprising with the frequency of reported weaker sales trends. This is not a level of economic activity that will support job creation. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales gained 2 points to a net negative 4 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), 17 points below January s reading. This is bad news for hiring and inventory investment. A net negative 1 percent of all owners reported growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), 1 points better than the September reading. Current sales (which are weak) are often being met by reducing stocks, not by ordering new inventory. For all firms, a net percent (up 1 point) reported stocks too low, still a satisfied reading based on survey history. Stocks are not excessive, but with pessimistic sales expectations, no need to order more. Plans to add to inventories gained 2 points, but to a net percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted), no stimulus from inventory investment, consistent with weak sales expectations and a sour outlook for future business conditions. INFLATION Seasonally adjusted, the net percent raising selling prices was negative 1 percent, down 7 points from September. The continued weakness in sales trends has blunted small business s ability to raise prices after two years of price cutting to liquidate excess inventories. Eighteen (18) percent plan on raising average prices in the next 3 months, 5 percent plan reductions yielding a seasonally adjusted net 14 percent planning price hikes, unchanged from September. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PROFITS AND WAGES Reports of positive earnings trends were a point better in October at a net negative 26 percent of all owners, not a pretty picture, but still one of the best readings in years. Compensation costs are rising, but not at a rapid rate. Seasonally adjusted, a net 7 percent reporting higher worker compensation, a 1 point decline. A seasonally adjusted 8 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, up 1 point. CREDIT MARKETS Four percent reported financing as their #1 business problem. Nine percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied (the record low is 4 percent, reached in 2). Thirty (3) percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 1 point and only 2 points above the record low. A net 11 percent reported loans harder to get compared to their last attempt (asked of regular borrowers only), up 1 point. The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 11 percent (more owners expect that it will be harder to arrange financing than easier), a 1 point improvement over September.

5 COMMENTARY Consumer spending improved a bit last quarter but prospects for future spending are still dismal. Consumer confidence posted only marginal gains over the last few months and confidence in economic policies remains at 5 year record low levels according to the University of Michigan s consumer confidence survey where only 7% of household heads approve. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Washington s economic policies, the Greek plunge also looms as an economic threat. Yes, the U.S. can print money to pay our sovereign debt but the Greeks can t. Although printing money comes with its own set of problems, namely inflation. So it s up to the Greeks and the E.U. figure out a solution. All of this uncertainly and dismal consumer sentiment does nothing to spur small business hiring and confidence, and the latest NFIB survey reflect this sentiment. From the perspective on Main Street, the Federal Reserve is out of bullets, not much it can do to reduce unemployment. It can t lower loan rates at most banks as floor rates are in effect and nobody wants to borrow as there are few investment opportunities in people or equipment no payoff with a lousy economy. The average rate reported on short-term money has been stuck around 6 percent for years now. The Federal Reserve has given it its best. Adding insult to injury, the U.S. fiscal policy is still in disarray. All that is proposed is higher spending, more regulations and increased taxes to support them. The President s jobs bill is poorly constructed as the incentives to hire are ineffective. Giving owners a temporary tax cut which are funded by permanent tax increases doesn t mean they will use the proceeds to hire workers that can t add enough value to cover their salaries. Washington seems to be avoiding the most important problems, namely the entitlement programs, that affect our out of control debt. Observers have continually warned about the bad ending that awaits those who live beyond their means creating the debt super-cycle. If this recession is not the ugly end predicted, it is certainly a warning of what will come if we don t change our ways. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) 11 Index Value (1986=1) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=1) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook October 211 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates 1 1 Cost of Expansion Political Climate 13 4 Other/Not Available 3 2 OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason October 211 Reason Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Subsequent Three Months) January 1974 to October Expected -3 Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 211 Net Percent Actual Planned ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants * * Percent EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 211 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to October Planned Higher 5 Actual Higher

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months Prices (Thick Line) PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Increase Labor Compensation (Thin Line) 11 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (Borrowers Only) 26 36/4 37/6 36/6 38/5 38/5 39/5 38/4 44/4 34/4 36/7 34/4 36/ /5 4/5 35/5 38/4 39/6 36/4 37/5 35/4 37/5 36/6 32/4 32/ /5 35/4 32/6 34/5 34/7 35/5 32/7 35/6 33/6 31/6 31/7 32/ /8 32/8 29/1 3/8 28/9 3/1 28/1 3/7 3/1 29/9 29/1 28/ /11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/1 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 28/9 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Relative (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Actual (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS* Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago *Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Actual -25 Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS 15 Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 1 5 Percent -5-1 Satisfaction Plans CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 8 Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter Percent 4 2 Actual Plans NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $1, to $49, $5, to $99, $1, No Answer 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM October 211 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Insurance, Big Business Competition, Inflation, and Regulation January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 211 Big Business Insurance 3 Inflation Regulation Percent of Firms NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Sales, Fin. & Interest Rates, Labor Cost, Labor Quality, and Taxes January Quarter 1974 to October Quarter 211 Taxes Interest Rates Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL B USIN E SS S URVEY Q UE STI ONS P AGE IN R E POR T Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report