NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level

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1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wad February 13 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change from Last Month Contribution to Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 3% 2 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 21% 1 * Plans to Increase Inventories -7% - 3 * Expect Economy to Improve - 3% 5 * Expect Real Sales Higher - 1% 1 * Current Inventory - 1% - 1 * Current Job Openings 18% 2 * Expected Credit Condition - 9% 2 * Now a Good Time to Expand 6% - 2 * Earnings Trends - 26% 3 * Total Change * (Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation)

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Senior Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism increased.9 points to 88.9, still one of the lowest readings in the survey s 4 year history. Economic growth in the fourth quarter turned negative. Yes, 2 million jobs were added last year, but the population grew by 3 million so, mathematically, far fewer of those who were dislocated by the recession have found a job. It is no surprise that consumer sentiment remains depressed as well. Expectations for business conditions in six months improved 5 points to negative 3 percent, the fourth lowest reading in survey history. Owner pessimism is certainly not surprising in light of higher taxes, rising health insurance costs and increasing regulations. There was very little to be positive about. Only 11 percent of consumers thought government was doing a good job in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, a very poor showing. LABOR MARKETS Forty-three (43) percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 34 percent (79 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions. More owners are now reporting net hiring than are reporting reductions, a positive development if it holds up. Eighteen (18) percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 2 points from December but still historically low for an expansion. This measure is highly correlated with the unemployment rate, so the NFIB survey anticipated little change in the rate. Job creation plans regained some of the December loss, rising 2 points to a net 3 percent planning to increase total employment. It is clear that the fourth quarter in 12 was weaker, and plans have not regained the levels reached in early 12. CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months rose 3 point to 55 percent, still in maintenance mode but at least an increase. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose 1 point to 21 percent. Six percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (down 2 points), historically a very weak number. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months was a net negative 3 percent, 5 points better than December but still disastrous, the fourth lowest reading in nearly 4 years. Overall, spending remained in maintenance mode, at levels only slightly better than during the Great Recession. And, with a very bearish outlook on the economy, plans to spend remained depressed. This survey was conducted in January 13. A sample of,799 small-business owners/members was drawn. Two thousand and thirty-three (2,33) usable responses were received a response rate of 19 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

4 SUMMARY INVENTORIES AND SALES The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months improved 1 point to a negative 9 percent. The five year high of a net 4 percent was reached in April last year. Nineteen (19) percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem, historically high, but far better than the record 34 percent reading last reached in March. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 1 point to a negative 1 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted). The pace of inventory reduction continued with a net negative 7 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), 3 points better than December, but still more owners reducing stocks than adding to them. But, with rather dismal sales expectations, plans to add to inventories remained weak at a net negative 7 percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted), 3 points worse than December. INFLATION Nineteen percent of the NFIB owners reported raising their average selling prices in the past three months (up 3 points), and 15 percent reported price reductions (down 2 points). Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was 2 percent, up 2 points. Seasonally adjusted, a net 21 percent plan price hikes, up 5 points. The recession and the weak recovery have made sure that the lid stays on inflation. There is still far too much capacity and far too few customers to produce a rising price level. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PROFITS AND WAGES Reports of positive earnings trends improved 3 points in January after a 3 point improvement in December, rising to a net negative 26 percent, still a dismal reading. Three percent reported reduced worker compensation and 14 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 13 percent reporting higher worker compensation (unchanged). A net seasonally adjusted 7 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, up 2 points from December. Earnings are the major source of capital for small firms to finance growth and expansion (and repay debts incurred to invest in their firms). With rising tax rates for many owners, rising health care costs, and a flood of new regulations to comply with, generating the profits needed to grow businesses will be more challenging in 13. CREDIT MARKETS Six percent of the owners reported that all their credit needs were not met, unchanged from December. Thirty-one (31) percent reported all credit needs met and 3 percent reported that financing was their top business problem. Thirty-one (31) percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 2 points from December and historically low. A net 7 percent reported loans harder to get compared to their last attempt (asked of regular borrowers only), 2 points lower than December. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 5.5 percent, stuck at much the same level for years.

5 COMMENTARY Bad news continued to dominate the information flow to business owners. GDP actually fell in the fourth quarter, and grew less than 2 percent for all of 12. A sharp decline in defense spending subtracted about 1.3 percentage points from the growth rate, a warning as to what might happen if sequestration actually occurs with no deal to change its magnitude and timing. A sharp decline in inventory building also knocked a point or more off the GDP growth rate. But even if those events had not occurred, overall growth would have still been around 2 percent, not enough to produce the jobs needed to reduce unemployment meaningfully. Indeed, the unemployment rate went up. Now the focus is on what Congress will do to avoid the sequestration and deal with the debt limit. Odds are a deal will be reached, but uncertainty reigns, just what it will look like, how much more in tax revenue and how meaningful spending reductions will be is very unclear. As a consequence, uncertainty about the growth in the economy and economic policy continues to depress investment spending and hiring and keeps consumers depressed and spending less as well. So, no surprise, the Optimism Index barely budged. The only good news is that it budged up, not down. Still, the outlook for business condition midyear is grim, Thirty-five percent expect conditions to be worse, points better than December, but historically one of the worst readings in 4 years of survey history, rivaling the 198 figures. Many economists argue that what is needed is new firms to start and create new jobs. Nice idea, but it would take a net 1.6 million new starts (with an average of 5 employees) to employ the 8 million who lost their jobs in the Great Recession. New firms didn t lay off those workers, existing firms did, and they must rehire workers if the unemployment rate is to be significantly reduced. And, not many new firms will start in this environment. Until recently, far more firms were being eliminated than started because we not only built too many houses in the boom, we also started too many new firms to serve consumers that were spending 99 percent of every after-tax income dollar in late 8. Population growth generates the need for more firms and job growth in the long haul, but our current problem is that existing firms still haven t re-hired to their 7 levels. A huge chunk of this is in construction. Whatever Congress does, the private sector will continue to push the economy forward. As Thoreau once observed, the only way government can help business is to get out of the way. Congress can certainly slow the economy down, even help create crises, but in the longer run, the economy will grow, especially with population growth of 3 million annually (thus housing must recover). We just have to wait and see what the management team decides to do for USA, Inc. Hopefully, their decisions will improve our bottom line. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) 1 Index Value (1986=) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) 3 OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook January 13 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates 1 1 Cost of Expansion 2 1 Political Climate 21 7 Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 - Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason January 12 Reason Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Subsequent Three Months) January 1974 to January 13 Expected Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 Net Percent Actual Planned ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants * * Percent 4 3 EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to January 13 Planned Higher Actual Higher

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months Prices (Thick Line) PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Increase Labor Compensation (Thin Line) 11 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (Borrowers Only) 8 34/5 35/4 32/6 34/5 34/7 35/5 32/7 35/6 33/6 31/6 31/7 32/6 9 33/8 32/8 29/ 3/8 28/9 3/ 28/ 3/7 3/ 29/9 29/ 28/8 27/11 29/9 29/11 28/9 28/8 25/ 27/9 27/9 27/9 26/9 25/9 28/ /8 29/8 28/7 28/8 28/8 25/9 28/8 28/7 29/8 28/9 3/7 29/7 12 3/7 31/7 27/8 31/8 29/9 29/7 3/7 31/7 32/8 28/8 28/6 29/ /6 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Relative (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter Actual (thin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS* Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago *Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 Actual -25 Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS 15 Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 5 Percent Satisfaction Plans CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 8 Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 6 Percent 4 Actual Plans NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Land AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $, to $49, $5, to $99, $, No Answer CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM January 13 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor Govt. Reqs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Insurance, Big Business Competition, Inflation, and Regulation January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 Big Business Insurance 3 Inflation Regulation Percent of Firms 18 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Sales, Fin. & Interest Rates, Labor Cost, Labor Quality, and Taxes January Quarter 1974 to January Quarter 13 Taxes Interest Rates Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report