NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS

Transcription

1 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade February 19 SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index C omponent Seasonally A djusted Level Change from Last Month Contribution to Index Change Plans to Increase Employment 16% -2 *% Plans to Make Capital Outlays 27% 2 *% Plans to Increase Inventories 1% *% Expect Economy to Improve 11% 5 *% Expect Real Sales Higher 16% *% Current Inventory -2% 1 *% Current Job Openings 37% 2 *% Expected Credit Conditions -5% *% Now a Good Time to Expand 22% 2 *% Earnings Trends -9% -4 *% Total Change 5 % Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners

2 NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $25. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Center. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Center. NFIB Research Center. ISBS # Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Director of Research and Policy Analysis Holly Wade are responsible for the report. IN THIS ISSUE Summary Commentary Optimism Outlook Earnings Sales Prices Employment Compensation Credit Conditions Inventories Capital Outlays Most Important Problem Survey Profile Economic Survey

3 SUMMARY OPTIMISM INDEX The Small Business Optimism Index improved modestly, increasing.5 points to 1.7, even with the potential negative impact of the government shutdown on government workers but also on government contractors who laid off workers as well. Two Index components fell, three were unchanged, and five improved. Views about future business conditions and the current period as a good time to expand improved as did plans to make capital outlays. Earnings trends took a hit as a million laid off workers and others affected by the shutdown cut back on spending. The reductions in sales fell immediately to the bottom line. Compared to January, fewer owners raised worker compensation and a few less raised selling prices, but job openings rebounded to historically high levels. Now that the government is funded, owners should be getting back to business with the rebound in consumer sentiment. The Uncertainty Index fell 1 point to 85. A small decline but still showing a lot of residual uncertainty from the government shutdown. LABOR MARKETS Job creation broke the 45-year record in February with a net addition of.52 workers per firm (including those making no change in employment), up from.25 in December, and.33 in January. The previous record was.51 reached in May Twelve percent (down 3 points) reported increasing employment an average of 3.2 workers per firm and 3 percent (down 4 points) reported reducing employment an average of 3.1 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted), the lowest percentage of owners reporting reductions in survey history. Owners are trying to hold on to the employees they have. Fifty-seven percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 1 point), but 49 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill (unchanged). Twenty-two percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem, only 3 points below the record high. Thirtyseven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 2 points from January and 2 points below the record high. Fourteen percent reported using temporary workers (up 1 point). In transportation, 56 percent reported open positions, 49 percent in construction, and 43 percent in manufacturing. A seasonally-adjusted net 16 percent plan to create new jobs, down 2 points from January s reading. Job creation plans were strongest in construction (net 42 percent) and manufacturing (net 28 percent). CAPITAL SPENDING Fifty-eight percent reported capital outlays, down 2 points. Of those making expenditures, 43 percent reported spending on new equipment (unchanged), 28 percent acquired vehicles (up 2 points), and 17 percent improved or expanded facilities (up 1 point). Six percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (down 1 point) and 14 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (down 1 point). Twenty-seven percent plan capital outlays in the next few months, up 1 point. Plans to invest were most frequent in wholesale trades (43 percent), manufacturing (39 percent), construction (32 percent), and agriculture (31 percent). This survey was conducted in February 19. A sample of 5, small-business owners/members was drawn. Five hundred and twenty-six (526) usable responses were received a response rate of 11 percent. 1 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

4 SALES AND INVENTORIES A net negative 1 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, a 5 point decline. Retail sales fell sharply in December and January, no surprise with a million workers laid off with no pay. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes was unchanged at a net 16 percent of owners, a solid reading but 7 points below December. For perspective, in the 12 months prior to the 16 election results, the average was a net -3 percent. The net percent of owners reporting inventory increases fell 5 points to a net 2 percent (seasonally adjusted), a logical result of the sharp decline in retail sales as owners tried to reduce inventories. The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as too low gained 1 point to a net negative 2 percent, suggesting that inventories are still viewed as a bit excessive, but not as much as in January. The percent of owners planning to expand inventory stocks was unchanged at a net 1 percent after a decline of 7 points from December. COMPENSATION AND EARNINGS Reports of higher worker compensation fell 5 points to a net 31 percent of all firms. Plans to raise compensation fell 2 points to a net 18 percent, suggesting some slowing in compensation gains as job creation plans faded a bit. Twenty-two percent (3 points below November s record high) selected finding qualified labor as their top business problem, indicating that firms are likely to continue to offer higher compensation to attract and retain qualified workers. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 4 points to a net negative 9 percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements, the weakest reading since 17. Forty-one percent of those reporting weaker profits blamed sales, only 9 percent blamed labor costs, and 22 percent cited lower selling prices. For those reporting higher profits, 5 percent credited sales volumes. Thirty-three percent credited higher prices for the results. The cost of materials was not an issue. 2 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report CREDIT MARKETS Three percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, unchanged and historically very low. Thirty-four percent reported all credit needs met (up 1 point) and 51 percent said they were not interested in a loan, up 2 points. Six percent reported their last loan was harder to get than the previous one, up 2 points but historically low. Two percent reported that financing was their top business problem (unchanged). The percent of owners reporting paying a higher rate on their most recent loan fell 3 points to 17 percent, after falling 4 points in January. Thirty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis (unchanged). The average rate paid on short maturity loans fell 7 basis points to 6.2 percent. INFLATION The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 2 points to a net 13 percent, seasonally adjusted. Firms in the wholesale trades most frequently reported raising their average prices (net 47 percent). Price hikes were much less frequent in other industry groups. Seasonally adjusted, a net 26 percent plan price hikes (down 1 point). The percent planning hikes is above 3 percent in construction, manufacturing, transportation, wholesale, and retail trades.

5 COMMENTARY By December, nearly a million government workers knew they would very likely be laid off and not paid. Even though there was an expectation that they would receive back pay, the uncertainty was when?. In the meantime, with NO cash coming in, these consumers pulled back from the holiday exuberance and cut spending. Beyond that, thousands of government contractors were not paid and so their employees were laid off, with no prospect of back pay. Add to that the uncertainty produced by the long shutdown, it is no surprise that there was a significant deceleration in consumer spending in December, the largest one month drop since 9. Consumer optimism did rebound from the shutdown s depressed January reading. Manufacturing sector indicators have become much more positive. The NAHB Homebuilders Index is up two months in a row; housing starts and permits are picking up. Overall, it appears that small business is getting back to business. But, there are still uncertainties, such as those created by current changes in trade policies. Asked if recent trade policies had impacted their businesses, 28 percent replied somewhat negatively and 9 percent reported a significant negative effect. Only 5 percent reported a positive effect. Responses varied by industry, with 64 percent of the firms in agriculture reporting a negative impact, 57 percent in the wholesale trades, and 41 percent each in manufacturing and construction. Tariffs are mostly paid by consumers, as these costs work their way through supply chains to the final purchaser. The hope is that these costs will be investments in reformed trading arrangements. 3 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

6 OVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) 1 Index Value (1986=) OPTIMISM INDEX Based on Ten Survey Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted 1986=) SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK 4 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent "Good Time to Expand" (thick line) 4 3 OUTLOOK Good Time to Expand and Expected General Business Conditions January 1986 to February Percent "Better" Minus "Worse" Expected General Business Conditions (thin line)

7 SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK (CONTINUED) OUTLOOK FOR EXPANSION Percent Next Three Months Good Time to Expand MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR EXPANSION OUTLOOK Reason Percent by Expansion Outlook February 19 Reason Good Time Not Good Time Uncertain Economic Conditions Sales Prospects Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Expansion 5 6 Political Climate Other/Not Available OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Better Minus Worse ) Six Months From Now NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

8 SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS EARNINGS Actual Last Three Months January 1986 to February 19 Net Percent ACTUAL EARNINGS CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR LOWER EARNINGS Percent Reason February 19 Current Month One Year Ago Two Years Ago Sales Volume Increased Costs* Cut Selling Prices Usual Seasonal Change Other * Increased costs include labor, materials, finance, taxes, and regulatory costs.

9 SMALL BUSINESS SALES Net Percent SALES Actual (Prior Three Months) and Expected (Next Three Months) January 1986 to February Expected Actual ACTUAL SALES CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Last Three Months Compared to Prior Three Months SALES EXPECTATIONS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) During Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

10 SMALL BUSINESS PRICES Net Percent of Firms PRICES Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to February Planned Actual ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report PRICE PLANS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) in the Next Three Months

11 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Last Three Months QUALIFIED APPLICANTS FOR JOB OPENINGS Percent Few or No Qualified Applicants Percent 4 3 EMPLOYMENT Planned Next Three Months and Current Job Openings January 1986 to February 19 Planned Job Openings NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

12 SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT (CONTINUED) JOB OPENINGS Percent With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now HIRING PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION COMPENSATION Actual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to February 19 Planned Actual

13 SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION (CONTINUED) ACTUAL COMPENSATION CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months COMPENSATION PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three Months Net Percent of Firms PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION Net Percent Price Increase and Net Percent Compensation Actual Prices Actual Com pensation NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

14 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent of Firms CREDIT CONDITIONS Loan Availability Compared to Three Months Ago* January 1986 to February * For the population borrowing at least once every three months. REGULAR BORROWERS Percent Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report AVAILABILITY OF LOANS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) Compared to Three Months Ago (Regular Borrowers)

15 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) BORROWING NEEDS SATISFIED Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Satisfied/ Percent of All Businesses Last Three Months Not Satisfied (All Borrowers) 14 31/5 29/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 27/6 3/6 28/4 28/6 29/4 29/4 32/ /4 33/3 35/5 31/4 3/4 32/5 32/4 33/3 3/2 3/3 32/3 32/ /3 31/4 31/5 31/4 31/4 32/5 3/3 29/4 32/6 29/4 3/4 29/ /4 3/3 32/4 32/3 31/3 27/4 31/3 34/3 33/2 29/4 32/4 32/ /3 32/2 31/4 32/4 37/4 3/3 32/3 33/3 27/3 3/3 32/3 32/ /3 34/3 EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS Net Percent ( Easier Minus Harder ) During Next Three Months (Regular Borrowers) Avg. Short-term Rate (thick line) INTEREST RATES Relative Rates and Actual Rates Last Three Months January 1986 to February Rat e Relat ive (t hin line) 13 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

16 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT CONDITIONS (CONTINUED) RELATIVE INTEREST RATE PAID BY REGULAR BORROWERS Net Percent ( Higher Minus Lower ) Compared to Three Months Ago Borrowing at Least Once Every Three Months. ACTUAL INTEREST RATE PAID ON SHORT-TERM LOANS BY BORROWERS Average Interest Rate Paid NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Net Percent SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Actual (Last Three Months) and Planned (Next Three Months) January 1986 to February 19 Actual Planned

17 SMALL BUSINESS INVENTORIES (CONTINUED) ACTUAL INVENTORY CHANGES Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) During Last Three Months INVENTORY SATISFACTION Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Increase Minus Decrease ) in the Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

18 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS INVENTORY SATISFACTION AND INVENTORY PLANS Net Percent ( Too Low Minus Too Large ) at Present Time Net Percent Planning to Add Inventories in the Next Three to Six Months 15 5 Percent -5 - Plans Satisfaction CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Actual Last Six Months and Planned Next Three Months January 1986 to February 19 Percent Actual Expected NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report ACTUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Percent Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last Six Months

19 SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAYS (CONTINUED) TYPE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Purchasing or Leasing During Last Six Months Type Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago Vehicles Equipment Furniture or Fixtures Add. Bldgs. or Land Improved Bldgs. or Lan AMOUNT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES MADE Percent Distribution of Per Firm Expenditures During the Last Six Months Amount Current One Year Ago Two Years Ago $1 to $ $1, to $4, $5, to $9, $, to $49, $5, to $99, $, No Answer 1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS Percent Planning a Capital Expenditure During Next Three to Six Months NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

20 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM February 19 Problem Current One Year Ago Survey High Survey Low Taxes Inflation Poor Sales Fin. & Interest Rates Cost of Labor 6 2 Govt. Regs. & Red Tape Comp. From Large Bus Quality of Labor Cost/Avail. of Insurance Other SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Inflation, Big Business, Insurance and Regulation January 1986 to February 19 Percent of Firms 4 3 Big Business Inflation Insurance Regulation 18 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report Percent of Firms SELECTED SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Taxes, Interest Rates, Sales and Labor Quality January 1986 to February 19 Taxes Interest Rates & Finance Sales Labor Quality

21 SURVEY PROFILE OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY NFIB Actual Number of Firms NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Industry of Small Business Percent Percent NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY Number of Full and Part-Time Employees 19 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report

22 NFIB RESEARCH CENTER SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? Were your net earnings or income (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before? If higher or lower, what is the most important reason? During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before? Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months? How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago? In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)? Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation? Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?

23 SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT Are loans easier or harder to get than they were three months ago? During the last three months, was your firm able to satisfy its borrowing needs? Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months? If you borrow money regularly (at least once every three months) as part of your business activity, how does the rate of interest payable on your most recent loan compare with that paid three months ago? If you borrowed within the last three months for business purposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1 year or less, what interest rate did you pay? During the last three months, did you increase or decrease your inventories? At the present time, do you feel your inventories are too large, about right, or inadequate? Looking ahead to the next three months to six months, do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories, keep them about the same, or decrease them? During the last six months, has your firm made any capital expenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings, or land? If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what was the total cost of all these projects? Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment? What is the single most important problem facing your business today? Please classify your major business activity, using one of the categories of example below How many employees do you have full and part-time, including yourself? NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Monthly Report