CMP* (Rs) 289 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 18. Market Cap. (Rs bn) 30 Free Float (%) 69 Shares O/S (mn) 105
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- Moses Hall
- 6 years ago
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1 3QFY18 Result Update February 08, 2018 CMP* (Rs) 289 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 30 Free Float (%) 69 Shares O/S (mn) 105 IITS Revenue Continues to Remain Buoyant; Margin Growth Heartening In-line with our estimate, s USD revenue from IITS business rose by a decent 2.7% QoQ in 3QFY18 to US$37.4mn. Staging a comeback to normal level, DPS revenue surged by 165.5% QoQ to Rs5.3bn (on a lower sequential base), as the segmental revenue was impacted in 2QFY18 due to a change in go-to-market strategy of some key principals. Consolidated revenue surged by ~80% QoQ, while consolidated EBITDA margin declined by 434bps QoQ owing to a higher contribution of DPS business to revenue. However, IITS margin grew by a strong 317bps QoQ led by a higher proportion of IP revenue and lower sta cost owing to a reduction in employee base led by completion of a temporary project. Consolidated EBIT margin declined by 399bps QoQ, while adjusted net profit rose by 9.2% QoQ to Rs493mn. Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance Relative to Nifty Shareholding Pattern (%) Sep'17 Dec'17 Promoter Public From vertical perspective, following two successive quarters of growth, OPD revenue declined by 0.8%. On a positive note, Sonata won some new clients towards 3QFY18-end, ramp-ups for which should start reflecting by 1QFY19E. Aided by Sonata s focus on platforms, Travel and CPG & Retail verticals clocked strong revenue growth of 6.6% and 6.7% QoQ, respectively. Service-wise, Testing and Microsoft AX were the key growth drivers, which grew by 8.5% QoQ and 8.2% QoQ, respectively. Notably, AX being the 2nd largest service after ADM (with 20% revenue contribution), higher revenue reflects Sonata s strong relationship with Microsoft. Geowise, growth was evenly spread across geographies, with the US, Europe and Rest of the World clocking 2.7% QoQ growth each. IP Revenue Drives Growth & Margin Following two successive quarters of strong growth, Sonata delivered another good quarter in IITS revenue, which rose by 2.7% QoQ in USD terms. This growth comes on top of 11.3% QoQ and 6.5% QoQ growth in 2QFY18 and 1QFY18, respectively. On YoY basis, IITS revenue (in USD terms) rose by a strong 23.4% marking the fastest growth since 2QFY15 led by focus on platforms and IP-led solutions (platformation). Focus on consumer-centric verticals which require high investment in digital initiatives continues to remain the key tailwind. Notably, 15.2% of Sonata s 3QFY18 revenue was IP-led (vs. 15% in 2QFY18 and 14% in 1QFY18). We expect focus on its platformation strategy to drive growth and profitability, going forward. 1 Year Stock Price Performance Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Note: * CMP as on Feb. 08, 2018 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Outlook & Valuation We like Sonata s dierentiated business, high dividend yield, quality balance sheet, high RoE and lack of equity dilution in last 17 years. Notwithstanding sharp run-up in stock price in last couple of months, we envisage enough legroom for further upside on the back of Sonata s platform focus, investments made in IP and S&M, decent cash generation and reasonable valuation coupled with healthy growth (18.3% EPS CAGR over FY17-FY20E). We raise our EPS estimates 4-6% for FY18E and FY19E. Upgrading our PE multiple to 14x from 12x on higher growth, we maintain our recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs340 (from Rs234 earlier). Key Financials (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales 25,211 26,586 29,948 33,495 EBITDA 1,923 2,272 2,773 3,421 APAT 1,537 1,880 2,134 2,546 Diluted EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Research Analyst: Harit Shah Contact: harit.shah@relianceada.com EV / EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
2 Conference Call Key Highlights Headcount in IITS business declined by ~5% QoQ owing to completion of a critical project of a strategic client, as these employees were temp hires. Staging a comeback to normal levels, DPS revenue surged substantially albeit on a lower sequential base, as revenue was impacted in 2QFY18 due to a change in go-tomarket strategy of some key principals. The Management expects the OPD business to start showing growth, as it has won new clients in this business towards 3QFY18-end, which should start ramping up from 1QFY19E onward. Sonata earned ~$2.4mn revenue (+3% QoQ) from IBIS, while it earned 14-15% EBITDA margin (vs. 11% in 2QFY18 and just 5% in 1QFY18), reflecting improving performance. The Management expects a marginal benefit of the US Tax Code. Key Risks Client-specific issues in any of the Top-10 clients could impact revenue growth. Growth pangs in OPD vertical, given the disruptive impact of SMAC, could aect revenue growth. Cost escalation could impact project delivery and margins. Cannibalisation of existing revenue particularly on ADM and ERP side following strategic shift to Cloud architecture. Currency risk. Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) Particulars (Rs mn) 3QFY18 2QFY18 QoQ (%) 3QFY17 YoY (%) IITS Net Revenue (US$ mn) Consolidated Net Revenue 7,667 4, , Inventory Costs 5,171 1, , Employee Costs 1,312 1,321 (0.7) 1, Other Operating Expenses EBITDA Depreciation (3.1) EBIT Interest Cost 9 12 (26.4) 24 (62.8) Other Income (41.9) 102 (36.1) PBT Tax (6.3) Minority Interest APAT E/o (adj for tax) RPAT
3 Exhibit 2: Margin Break Up Particulars 3QFY18 2QFY18 QoQ (bps) 3QFY17 YoY (bps) Inventory Cost % Net Revenue , Employee Cost % Net Revenue (1,383) 20.1 (301) SG&A and Other Exp. % Net Revenues (538) 9.3 (231) EBITDA Margin (%) (434) 9.5 (104) EBIT Margin (%) (399) 9.1 (98) Tax Rate (%) (550) APAT Margin (%) (414) 7.0 (58) Exhibit 3: Key Assumptions Particulars FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E IITS USD revenue growth (%) USD/INR rate IITS EBITDA margin (%) DPS EBITDA margin (%) Cons. EBITDA margin (%) Exhibit 4: Vertical break-up OPD TTL CPG & Retail Others Exhibit 5: Vertical growth OPD (6.0) (2.1) (0.8) TTL (4.2) 3.2 (9.8) CPG & Retail (2.4) (1.7) Others (8.3) (3.0) 3
4 Exhibit 6: Service line break-up ADM Testing AX ERP IMS BI E-commerce Mobility* Cloud Rezopia ; Mobility and Cloud have been clubbed together wef. 3QFY17, and Rezopia has also been included as part of Mobility wef. 2QFY18. Exhibit 7: Service line growth ADM (10.4) 5.5 (2.0) Testing (14.6) AX (2.9) ERP (17.8) IMS BI (2.9) (9.9) 6.5 (2.6) 17.4 E-commerce (20.3) (8.4) (2.9) 1.3 (11.2) 33.6 (14.4) Mobility* 2.5 (46.6) (2.9) (49.3) (17.8) Cloud (48.8) 6.8 Rezopia 70.8 (14.5) (27.2) ; Mobility and Cloud have been clubbed together wef. 3QFY17, and Rezopia has also been included as part of Mobility wef. 2QFY18. Exhibit 8: Geographic break-up USA Europe RoW Exhibit 9: Geographic growth USA (1.2) Europe (10.4) RoW (4.9) (6.8)
5 Exhibit 10: Onsite-oshore contribution Onsite Oshore Exhibit 11: Onsite-oshore growth Onsite (13.7) Oshore (3.7) Exhibit 12: Client contribution Top Clients Top Clients Top Non top ; From 4QFY16, Sonata started giving out top-5 and top-20 client data. Exhibit 13: Client growth Top (4.5) Clients (2.1) (2.9) 1.3 (12.9) Top (4.3) Clients (52.7) (12.9) 11.3 (8.7) Top-20 (2.7) 9.7 (0.4) Non top (2.1) (11.7) (3.7) (1.9) ; From 4QFY16, Sonata started giving out top-5 and top-20 client data. 5
6 Profit and Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales 25,211 26,586 29,948 33,495 Growth (%) Total Operating Expenses 23,289 24,313 27,175 30,074 EBITDA 1,923 2,272 2,773 3,421 EBITDA (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation EBIT 1,830 2,142 2,625 3,254 EBIT (%) EBIT Growth (%) (1.5) Other Income Interest PBT 2,142 2,724 3,138 3,800 Tax (incl deferred) ,004 1,254 Minority Interest Exceptional Items PAT 1,537 1,880 2,134 2,546 PAT Growth (%) (3.1) EPS (Rs) EPS Growth (%) (3.1) Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity Reserves 5,045 5,788 6,660 7,944 Total Shareholders' Funds 5,150 5,894 6,765 8,049 Total Debt Long Term Provisions & Others Creditors 4,482 4,796 5,584 6,344 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1,791 1,837 1,965 2,094 Total Current Liabilities 6,274 6,633 7,549 8,439 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 11,953 13,024 14,779 16,920 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets Net Block CWIP Deferred Tax Assets LT Loans & Advances, Others Total Non Current Assets 2,124 2,260 2,411 2,579 Debtors 5,443 5,973 6,974 8,075 Cash & Bank 2,477 2,883 3,486 4,358 Liquid Investments 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 9,829 10,764 12,368 14,342 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 11,953 13,024 14,779 16,920 6
7 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E PAT 1,537 1,880 2,134 2,546 Depreciation Working Capital Change 1,120 (170) (86) (211) Cash Flow from Operations (a) 2,751 1,840 2,196 2,501 Capex (113) (266) (299) (335) Investments (0) Cash Flow from Investing (b) (113) (266) (299) (335) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (1,370) (33) (33) (33) Dividend (694) (1,136) (1,262) (1,262) Cash Flow from Financing (c) (2,064) (1,168) (1,294) (1,294) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) EO items, others (1,049) Closing Cash Balance 2,477 2,883 3,486 4,358 Free Cash Flow 2,637 1,574 1,897 2,166 Key Ratios Y/E March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Profitability (%) EBITDA Margin APAT Margin RoE RoIC or Core RoCE RoCE Eiciency Tax Rate (%) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payables (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.8) (1.8) (1.7) (1.6) Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) Interest Coverage (x) Per Share Data (Rs) EPS CEPS DPS BV Valuation P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA OCF/EV (%) FCF/EV (%) FCFE/mkt cap (%) Dividend Yield (%)
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Company Update January 08, 2019 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 54 Free Float (%) 42 Shares O/S (mn) 77.3 Capacity Expansion on Track; Ease of Funding Concern Augurs Well We have interacted with the senior management
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2QFY18 Result Update November 8, 217 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 125 Free Float 37 Shares O/S (mn) 726 PSB Recap A Big Positive; but Earnings to Remain Tepid With lower fresh slippages (lowest in last 8 quarters)
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INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 2 Nov 2015) Rs 1,812 Target Price Rs 2,050 Nifty 8,051 Sensex 26,559 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ECLX IN No. of Shares (mn) 30 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 55/843 6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
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INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 20 Apr 2017) Rs 503 Target Price Rs 540 Nifty 9,136 Sensex 29,422 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CYL IN No. of Shares (mn) 113 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 57/876 6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
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INDUSTRY IT Processing CMP (as on 23 May 218) Rs 17 TP Rs 23 Nifty 1,43 Sensex 34,345 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BLSIN IN No. of Shares (mn) 12 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 18/255 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 89
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INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 24 Apr 2017) Rs 220 Target Price Rs 215 Nifty 9,218 Sensex 29,656 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters HEXW IN No. of Shares (mn) 302 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 67/1,033 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY APPLIANCES CMP (as on 27 Oct 2017) Rs 219 Target Price Rs 268 Nifty 10,323 Sensex 33,157 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CROMPTON IN No. of Shares (mn) 627 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$ mn) 137/2,106 6m avg traded
More informationSonata Software. Strong growth, reasonable valuations. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Strong growth, reasonable valuations August 16, 2017 Madhu Babu madhubabu@plindia.com +91 22 66322300 Rating BUY Price Rs160 Target Price Rs200 Implied Upside 25.0% Sensex 31,771 Nifty 9,897 (Prices as
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INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 27 Jul 2017) Rs 289 Target Price Rs 353 Nifty 10,021 Sensex 32,383 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ITC IN No. of Shares (mn) 12,161 12,162 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$ mn) 3,509/54,743 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY EXCHANGES CMP (as on 30 Apr 2018) Rs 779 Target Price Rs 1,040 Nifty 10,739 Sensex 35,160 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MCX IN No. of Shares (mn) 51 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 40/595 6m avg traded value
More informationCMP* (Rs) 301 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 25. Market Cap. (Rs bn) 19.6 Free Float (%) 26 Shares O/S (mn) 65
Infrastructure India Initiating Coverage March 19, 2018 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 19.6 Free Float (%) 26 Shares O/S (mn) 65 Moving towards the Big League (HGI), a newly listed company, is primarily engaged in
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INDUSTRY EXCHANGES CMP (as on 30 Jul 2018) Rs 267 Target Price Rs 370 Nifty 11,320 Sensex 37,494 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CDSL IN No. of Shares (mn) 105 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 28/406 6m avg traded value
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Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 2904 Recommendation CMP Target Price BUY Rs. 312 Rs. 443 Better times ahead! reported a good set of numbers in
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INDUSTRY EXCHANGES CMP (as on 29 Oct 2018) Rs 240 Target Price Rs 380 Nifty 10,251 Sensex 34,067 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CDSL IN No. of Shares (mn) 105 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 25/341 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY EXCHANGES CMP (as on 23 Apr 2018) Rs 296 Target Price Rs 415 Nifty 10,585 Sensex 34,451 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CDSL IN No. of Shares (mn) 105 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 31/465 6m avg traded value
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More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year FY14 391,088 45,198 34, FY15E 354,262 35,426 23,
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Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable August 10, 2018 Blue Star Ltd Performance
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