Power Mech Projects. Institutional Equities. 2QFY19 Result Update BUY. Strong Order Book Drives Robust Execution
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1 2QFY19 Result Update Power Mech Projects 21 November 218 Reuters: POMP.BO; Bloomberg: POWM IN Strong Order Book Drives Robust Execution Power Mech Projects (PMPL) posted 2QFY19 consolidated revenues of Rs5.3bn, up 55% YoY and 19% above our estimate of Rs4.5bn. The growth was driven by 172% YoY surge in civil segment revenues to Rs2.1bn (39% of total sales versus 22% YoY) owing to execution of strong opening order book. ETC segment s revenues grew 23% YoY to Rs1.7bn (33% of total sales), on a low base, aided by strong execution in international markets. O&M segment s revenues were up 14% YoY at Rs1.4bn (26% of total sales). Revenues from international markets jumped 141% YoY to Rs1.3bn (24% of total sales) while domestic sales rose 39% YoY to Rs4bn. Aided by better operating leverage, EBITDA rose 52% YoY to Rs685mn, translating to an EBITDA margin of 12.8%, down 3bps YoY and marginally below our estimate of 13%. Resource mobilisation for civil works projects (which are yet to be booked in revenues) and project closure of an old BHEL order led to lower margin. Higher interest costs at Rs133mn (versus Rs87mn YoY) was offset by a lower tax rate (at 28.1% versus 29.8% YoY) and higher other income (at Rs38mn versus Rs19mn YoY). PAT grew 67% YoY to Rs284mn, exactly in line with our estimate. Order inflow in 2QFY19 surged to a life-time high level of Rs18.4bn driven by Rs13.8bn school infrastructure order. The order book remains strong at Rs62.6bn as at 2QFY19, up 5% YoY (4x FY18 sales) providing robust revenue visibility for the next two years. We have marginally tweaked our earnings estimates and rolled forward our valuation to September 22E earnings. We remain optimistic on PMPL s business scalability and have retained Buy rating on it with a revised target price of Rs1,295 (from Rs1,25 earlier) based on 12x P/E. ETC segment update: ETC revenues grew 23% YoY to Rs1.7bn in 2QFY19 and 25% YoY to Rs3.6bn in 1HFY19. Growth was aided by strong execution in international markets with sales doubling YoY to Rs2.5bn in 1HFY19 (25% of total sales). Order inflow in 2QFY19 was robust at Rs6.1bn aided by Rs4.9bn order from Dangote, Nigeria. Revenue booking from Nigeria project will commence from 3QFY19. ETC order book rose 11% YoY to Rs23.7bn (3.7x FY18 sales). The opportunity size in international markets is Rs4bn, but PMPL will be selective in taking orders with at least 18% EBITDA margin profile and expects the share of international business at ~2% of total sales. Civil works segment update: Driven by a strong order book, 2QFY19 revenues surged 172% YoY to Rs2.1bn and 112% YoY to Rs3.5bn. The execution of large projects such as Vizag AMTZ (55% billing complete till 2QFY19), railways and electrification is progressing extremely well. Order inflow in 1HFY19 was strong at Rs18.9bn driven by Rs13.8bn order for improving school infrastructure in five districts of Andhra Pradesh under the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. The order book jumped 142% YoY to Rs27.6bn (8x FY18 sales) providing it strong future revenue visibility. The management believes that rising share of civil works in total sales would lead to improvement in margins, cash flow and working capital cycle of PMPL. O&M segment update: O&M revenues grew 14% YoY to Rs1.4bn in 2QFY19 and % YoY to Rs2.7bn in 1HFY19. Order inflow was healthy at Rs1.8bn while the order book is strong at Rs9.6bn, up 9% YoY (1.9x FY18 sales). PMPL is looking to scale up its presence by focusing on opportunities in international markets, nonpower sector and captive power plants. Further, rising orders from NTPC and state electricity boards (PMPL won orders from Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka) will also aid growth. Working capital position: PMPL intends to reduce its working capital cycle by diversifying into non-power sector (26% of sales in 1HFY19 versus 6% YoY) and international markets. Ex-cash net working capital cycle reduced to 128 days in 1HFY19 compared to 16 days in FY18. Operating cash flow improved to Rs537mn in 1HFY19 versus a negative Rs385mn YoY. Outlook: With a strong order book and robust order inflow outlook, we expect 25%/31% consolidated revenue/earnings CAGR, respectively, over FY18-FY21E. Healthy RoCE (24% in FY2E) and operating margin profile (above 13%) will aid valuation. Improvement in net working capital cycle is key to re-rating of the stock. BUY Sector: Capital Goods CMP: Rs93 Target Price: Rs1,295 Upside: 39% Chirag Muchhala Research Analyst chirag.muchhala@nirmalbang.com Key Data Current Shares O/S (mn) 14.7 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$mn) 13.5/ Wk H / L (Rs) 1,84/697 Daily Volume (3M NSE Avg.) 21,174 Price Performance (%) 1 M 6 M 1 Yr Power Mech Projects 3.7 (7.) 22.6 Nifty Index Source: Bloomberg Y/E March (Rsmn) 2QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1HFY18 1HFY19 YoY (%) Net revenues 3,452 4,619 5, ,36 9, Raw material costs 2,191 2,93 3, ,651 6, Staff costs 78 1,15 1, ,296 2, Other expenses (21.9) (17.8) Total expenditure 3,1 4,12 4, ,126 8, EBITDA , EBITDA margin (%) Interest costs Depreciation Other income Share of profit from JV (.5) (.7).2 (.5) (.5) PBT Tax Minority interest PAT PAT margin (%) EPS (Rs) Please refer to the disclaimer towards the end of the document.
2 FY11 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY13 FY13 FY14 FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 1HFY19 1HFY19 Order book Exhibit 1: Financial summary (consolidated) Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY2E FY21E Net revenues 13,382 15,478 2,49 25,171 3,239 EBITDA 1,659 2,23 2,699 3,367 4,77 Net profit ,85 1,394 1,783 EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) (13.8) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Exhibit 2: Revenue and margin trend (Rsbn) (%) Revenue Gross margin EBITDA margin PAT margin Exhibit 3: Trend in ETC segment s revenues and current order book (Rsbn) Power Mech Projects
3 FY11 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY13 FY13 FY14 FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 1HFY19 1HFY19 Order book Order book Exhibit 4: Trend in O&M service segment s revenues and current order book (Rsbn) Exhibit 5: Trend in civil & electrical works segment s revenues and current order book (Rsbn) Exhibit 6: Segment-wise order book break-up Civil & electrical, Rs29.4bn, 47% ETC, Rs23.7bn, 38% O&M, Rs9.6bn, 15% 3 Power Mech Projects
4 Apr-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Apr-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Exhibit 7: Actual performance versus our estimates 2QFY19 (Rsmn) Actual Our estimate Deviation (%) Revenues 5,345 4, EBITDA PAT Exhibit 8: P/E charts (Rs) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, (x) x x 12x 14x 16x stock price Source: BSE, Nirmal Bang Research P/E 2 year average P/E SD +1 SD +2 SD -1 Source: BSE, Nirmal Bang Research 4 Power Mech Projects
5 Financial statement (consolidated) Exhibit 9: Income statement Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY2E FY21E Net sales 13,382 15,478 2,49 25,171 3,239 % growth (2.9) Raw material costs 9,143,24 13,164 16,185 19,383 Staff costs 2,265 3,122 4,184 5,59 5,897 Other overheads Total expenditure 11,723 13,456 17,7 21,85 26,162 EBITDA 1,659 2,23 2,699 3,367 4,77 % growth (8.8) EBITDA margin (%) Other income Interest costs Depreciation Profit before tax 998 1,33 1,822 2,397 3,35 Tax Minority interest 6 (116) (227) (284) (341) PAT ,85 1,394 1,783 % growth (13.8) PAT margin (%) EPS (Rs) % growth (13.8) Exhibit 11: Balance sheet Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY2E FY21E Share capital Reserves 6,65 6,838 7,834 9,4,728 Net worth 6,213 6,985 7,981 9,251,875 Minority interest Short-term loans 1,643 2,462 2,587 2,887 3,187 Long-term loans Total loans 1,797 2,739 3,14 3,314 3,614 Deferred tax liability 21 (25) (25) (25) (25) Total liabilities 8,53 9,837 11,8 12,678 14,62 Net block 2,36 1,998 1,99 1,7 1,414 Capital work-in-progress Investments Inventories ,77 Debtors 2,949 3,86 3,914 4,689 5,551 Cash ,292 1,224 1,456 Other current assets 7,71 9,228 11,123 13,593 16,329 Total current assets 11,434 13,733 17,27 2,43 24,413 Creditors 2,654 3,75 3,859 4,567 5,47 Other current liabilities & provisions 2,921 2,99 4,21 4,98 5,86 Total current liabilities 5,575 5,983 7,879 9,476 11,276 Net current assets 5,86 7,75 9,148,927 13,137 Total assets 8,53 9,837 11,8 12,678 14,62 Exhibit : Cash flow Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY2E FY21E EBIT 1,25 1,594 2,222 2,857 3,541 (Inc.)/dec. in working capital (416) (1,29) (1,54) (1,847) (1,978) Cash flow from operations ,168 1,11 1,563 Other income Depreciation Tax paid (-) (377) (439) (5) (719) (9) Minority interest 6 (116) (227) (284) (341) Net cash from operations Capital expenditure (-) (395) (33) (35) (3) (25) Net cash after capex 554 (85) Interest paid (-) (329) (359) (489) (538) (589) Dividends paid (-) (18) (18) (88) (124) (159) Inc./(dec.) in short-term borrowing (276) Inc./(dec.) in long-term borrowing (59) Inc./(dec.) in total borrowings (335) Inc./(dec.) in investments (6) Minority interest Cash from financial activities (671) 69 (32) (362) (448) Others 32 (5) Opening cash balance ,292 1,224 Closing cash balance ,292 1,224 1,456 Change in cash balance (84) (67) 231 Exhibit 12: Key ratios Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY2E FY21E Per share (Rs) EPS Book value Valuation (x) P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/sales Return ratios (%) RoCE RoE RoIC Profitability ratios (%) EBITDA margin EBIT margin PAT margin Turnover ratios Total asset turnover ratio (x) Fixed asset turnover ratio (x) Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days Solvency ratios (x) Debt-equity Power Mech Projects
6 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Rating track Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 23 September 215 Buy November 215 Buy February 216 Buy April 216 Buy June 216 Buy July 216 Buy September 216 Buy October 216 Buy December 216 Buy January 217 Buy February 217 Buy February 217 Buy April 217 Buy July 217 Buy August 217 Buy October 217 Buy November 217 Buy January 218 Buy February 218 Buy 9 1, 6 April 218 Buy 876 1, 31 May 218 Buy 964 1,25 July 218 Buy 976 1,25 14 August 218 Buy 935 1,25 9 October 218 Buy 846 1,25 21 November 218 Buy 93 1,295 Rating track graph Not Covered Covered 6 Power Mech Projects
7 DISCLOSURES This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBEPL ) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214 having Registration no. INH1436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I/We, Mr. Chirag Muchhala the research analysts is the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 7 Power Mech Projects
8 Disclaimer Stock Ratings Absolute Returns BUY > 15% ACCUMULATE -5% to15% SELL < -5% This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. NBEPL is not soliciting any action based upon it. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. This research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of NBEPL and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed or redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. NBEPL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject NBEPL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions. The report is based on the information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up-to-date and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. NBEPL reserves its absolute discretion and right to make or refrain from making modifications and alterations to this statement from time to time. Nevertheless, NBEPL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. Opinions expressed are subject to change without any notice. Neither the company nor the director or the employees of NBEPL accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Here it may be noted that neither NBEPL, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profit that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information contained in this report. Copyright of this document vests exclusively with NBEPL. Our reports are also available on our website Access all our reports on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Factset. Team Details: Name Id Direct Line Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com - Girish Pai Head of Research girish.pai@nirmalbang.com / 18 Dealing Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com , Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com /81, Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com /83, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. Correspondence Address B-2, 31/32, Marathon Innova, Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai-413. Board No. : /1; Fax. : Power Mech Projects
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Result Update Institutional Equities The India Cements 28 May 218 Reuters: ICMN.BO; Bloomberg: ICEM IN Fall In Realisation, Higher Operating Costs Hurt Performance The India Cements (ICEM) reported a weak
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Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 2904 Recommendation CMP Target Price BUY Rs. 312 Rs. 443 Better times ahead! reported a good set of numbers in
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4QFY17 Result Update Institutional Equities Capital First 11 May 2017 Reuters: CAPF.BO; Bloomberg: CAFL IN Net Interest Income Up, But Offset By Elevated Credit Costs Although the net interest income or
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Company Update Institutional Equities Dr. Reddy s Laboratories 5 September 2017 Reuters: REDY.BO; Bloomberg: DRRD IN Suboxone Generic Opportunity To Be Lucrative, Can Sustain For Longer Time The district
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Event Update Institutional Equities Aurobindo Pharma 10 September 2018 Reuters: ARBP.NS; Bloomberg: ARBP IN Acquires Dermatology and Oral Solids Businesses Of Sandoz Aurobindo Pharma s (APL) acquisition
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3QFY18 Result Update Institutional Equities Federal Bank 16 January 2018 Reuters: FED.BO; Bloomberg: FB IN Quarter Typifies Balanced Growth Engine Federal Bank (FBL) reported 3QFY18 results with the key
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Management Meet Update Atul Auto 23 August 2017 Reuters: ATUL.BO; Bloomberg: ATUL IN We had a meeting with the management of Atul Auto (AAL) recently to gauge its performance in the aftermath of a relatively
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Management Meet Update Institutional Equities Voltas Reuters: VOLT.BO; Bloomberg: VOLT IN We had a meeting with the management of Voltas recently to get the latest business update. While the management
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10 April 2019 4QFY19 Result Preview Gains Versus El Nino Headwind Holds The Key; Retain Buy We remain positive on and retain our Buy call on it based on 24% upside to our blended target price of Rs1,134
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Economy Update Institutional Equities May Inflation/April Index of Industrial Production 13 June 2018 CPI Inflation At 4.9%; IIP Growth Also At 4.9% Consumer Price Index or CPI inflation in India stood
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