Dabur India. Institutional Equities. 4QFY18 Result Update. Growth Volatility Is Still Fairly High ACCUMULATE
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1 4QFY18 Result Update Institutional Equities Dabur India 3 May 2018 Reuters: DABU.NS; Bloomberg: DABUR IN Growth Volatility Is Still Fairly High Dabur India s (DABUR) consolidated top-line performance in 4QFY18 was below our as well as consensus estimate, but the weak top-line was masked by earnings strength. On the profitability side, the company reported 16% growth in EBITDA led by reduction in sales promotion expenses and moderate price hikes across categories. We believe that this is still not sustainable considering the sluggish category growth rates and high competitive intensity. Combination of these forces would mean that growth rates for the company will remain fairly volatile. Domestic growth below expectations: Domestic business on a comparable basis grew 10% wherein volume growth was 7.7%. Among the broad categories, Home and Personal Care (HPC) category and Healthcare category grew by 10% and 11%, respectively. Growth of HPC was driven by continued momentum in oral care and hair care portfolios which grew on a favourable base. New launches and other promotions could have helped volume growth during the quarter. Beverages category has been struggling to cope up with the competition and has lost around 200bps market share YoY. Competitive intensity in herbal segment is very intense and hence we do not expect the company to grow in double digits in the medium term. Sluggish category growth is a concern: Management indicated that category growth across its HPC segment is still in mid-single digits and has not yet witnessed clear signs of revival. In our opinion, the comparable numbers as presented are the function of a favourable base and promotion done across categories. In our opinion, it is very difficult to outperform the industry consistently in the absence of strong innovation pipeline which is lacking in case of DABUR. Some recovery in international business: DABUR reported 16.8% CC growth in international business. Performance of overseas business was driven by a favourable base and recovery in GCC region largely led by Saudi Arabian market, as indicated earlier. Limited room for margin expansion: Growth in profitable segments resulted in operating margin expansion of 210bps. Looking at the competitive intensity, rising raw material prices, low share of premium portfolio and continued promotion, in our opinion DABUR is not in a position to improve its margin profile even after considering price hikes. Outlook and valuation: Overall, we believe that top-line growth outlook is uncertain and a lot is dependent on rural recovery. As discussed above, headwinds for margin expansion remain. Although we have slightly revised our estimates, we have retained Accumulate rating on DABUR with a revised target price of Rs372 (from Rs344 earlier) based on FY20E EPS and P/E of 40x, indicating flat returns compared to the CMP. ACCUMULATE Sector: FMCG CMP: Rs371 Target Price: Rs372 Upside: Nil Vijay Chugh Research Analyst vijay.chugh@nirmalbang.com Abhishek Navalgund Research Associate abhishek.navalgund@nirmalbang.com Key Data Current Shares O/S (mn) 1,761.5 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 654.1/ Wk H / L (Rs) 383/265 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 1,937,902 Price Performance (%) 1 M 6 M 1 Yr Dabur India Nifty Index Source: Bloomberg Y/E March (Rsmn) 4QFY17 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 YoY (%) Net sales 19,147 19,664 20, ,014 77, COGS 9,762 9,524 10, ,432 38, % of sales (170bps) 90bps (30bps) Gross margin (%) bps (90bps) bps Employee costs 1,731 2,048 1, (11.8) 7,896 7, % of sales (10bps) (150bps) Advertising costs 1,230 1,853 1, (32.2) 6,461 6,067 (6.1) % of sales (20bps) (320bps) (60bps) Other expenses 2,249 2,205 2, ,135 8,850 (3.1) % of sales bps (40bps) EBITDA 4,176 4,035 4, ,089 16, EBITDA margin (%) bps 330bps bps Depreciation ,429 1, EBIT 3,780 3,630 4, ,661 14, EBIT margin (%) bps 330bps bps Interest expense (1.8) Other income ,984 3, PBT 4,314 4,162 5, ,104 16, Tax , ,303 3, Effective tax rate (%) (170bps) 90bps (70bps) PAT 3,337 3,329 3, ,801 13, PAT margin (%) bps 250bps bps EPS
2 Exhibit 1: Financial summary Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net sales 78,688 77,014 77,483 83,861 92,191 YoY growth (%) 0.5 (2.1) EBITDA 15,183 15,089 16,174 17,535 19,458 EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT 12,512 12,803 13,578 13,862 16,394 EPS YoY change (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Exhibit 2: Our estimates versus actual performance Y/E (Rsmn) 4QFY17 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Our estimate Variation (%) Net sales 19,147 19,664 20, ,680 (1.7) EBITDA 4,176 4,035 4, , EBITDA (%) bps 330bps bps PAT 3,337 3,329 3, , Exhibit 3: Change in our estimates Y/E March Old estimates New estimates Deviation % (Rsmn) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Net sales 86,923 93,285 83,861 92,191 (0.7) (0.7) EBITDA 17,651 19,369 17,535 19, EBITDA (%) bps 110bps PAT 14,893 16,428 13,862 16,394 (5.3) (0.1) 2 Dabur India
3 Conference-call highlights Domestic growth on a favourable base: DABUR reported comparable top-line growth of 10% in domestic business with a combination of 7.7% volume growth. HPC and HC categories grew 11% and 10%, respectively, whereas beverages business grew just 2% because of competitive pressure. Growth in HPC was contributed by oral care which grew 11% (led by 20% growth in Dabur Red) and hair care (shampoo 31% and oils 9%) which also grew well on a favourable base. In HC, growth in chyawanprash and honey was in double digits led by strong brand investments. Juice franchise has been under pressure and during the quarter has lost 200bps market share YoY. DABUR has increased promotional activity in this category to maintain its market share, but strong competiton from domestic players as well as MNCs is hurting the category s growth. New launches: During the quarter, DABUR launched new products mainly in hair care (shampoo and hair oils) and beverages category Real Koolerz. This coupled with other promotions must have also helped the company in posting higher volume growth, in our view. However, there is no meaningful innovation happening to the likes of Hindustan Unilever or HUL, Nestle India etc. Category growth is still subdued: The management indicated that all key categories in the HPC space have been growing in mid single digits. The double-digit category growth, as reported by the company, is a function of a favourable base and promotions done across the category. In our view, although there are early signs of revival, the outlook for category growth is fairly uncertain and a lot is dependent on the fiscal stimulus and a good monsoon. Considering the not-so-strong innovation pipeline of DABUR vis-à-vis market leader like HUL and intense competition in the herbal space, we don t expect double-digit top-line growth in the medium term. Some signs of improvement in international business:. After many quarters, overseas business reported double-digit CC growth of 16.8% YoY. In Indian rupee or INR terms, the growth was around 9% on the base of negative growth of 17%. Markets like Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan maintained the growth momentum, but the large impact was because of improvement in GCC region which reported 51% CC growth. Growth in GCC was driven by Saudi Arabia which grew 82% in CC terms. The management has changed the distribution channel partner in Saudi Arabia and reduced the dependence on wholesale which has yielded the results. No headroom for margin expansion: During the quarter, company reported 210bps operating margin expansion whereas on comparable basis the same was 140bps YoY. A large part of the expansion was the function of high growth in more profitable segments like oral care, hair care and subdued growth in beverage category which enjoys relatively lower margin. The management indicated that there will be price hikes going forward to cope up with the rise in input prices. The management is confident of maintaining the existing blended margins because of better expectations in international business. We believe that, DABUR s share of premium portfolio is low and the innovation pipeline is not as strong as in case of HUL in the HPC space. This gives away the pricing power from the company and limits its ability to expand margins. Also, in a competitive category, without meaningful innovation it is difficult to survive sans aggressive marketing and promotion which are again margin-dilutive. Therefore, we believe that there is no further scope for margin expansion. Other points: DIL has declared a special dividend of Rs5 per share while celebrating the silver jubilee of its listing on stock exchanges which translated into a cash outflow of Rs10,560mn in FY19. Capex guidance for FY19 was capped in the range of Rs2,500mn-Rs3,000mn, mainly in respect of expansion at existing facilities. Also, the management is open for inorganic growth. Tax rate for FY19 would be more or less in the same range. 3 Dabur India
4 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 May-13 2QFY18 Aug-13 Nov-13 3QFY18 Feb-14 May-14 4QFY18 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Institutional Equities Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Exhibit 4: Volume-value growth trend in domestic business Exhibit 5: Top-line performance (%) (5.2) (4.4) (5.0) (6.6) Volume growth % Value growth % (Rsmn) 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16, (6.0) (4.7) (8.3) (1.1) QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 Sales (Rs mn) Sales growth (%) (2) (4) (6) (8) (10) Exhibit 6: Operating margin profile Exhibit 7: Net profit margin profile (Rsmn) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA margin % (%) (Rsmn) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 PAT (Rs mn) PAT margin % (%) Exhibit 8: One- year forward P/E (x) yr Forward PE 5 yr Median PE + 1 SD - 1 SD 4 Dabur India
5 Financials (consolidated) Exhibit 9: Income statement Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net sales 78,688 77,014 77,483 83,861 92,191 % Growth 0.5 (2.1) COGS 38,496 38,432 38,464 41,712 45,927 Staff costs 7,941 7,896 7,928 8,490 9,217 Advertising costs 9,352 9,135 8,850 9,152 9,876 Other expenses 7,716 6,461 6,067 6,972 7,713 Total expenses 63,505 61,925 61,309 66,326 72,733 EBITDA 15,183 15,089 16,174 17,535 19,458 % growth 15.3 (0.6) EBITDA margin (%) Other income 2,172 2,984 3,052 2,200 3,500 Interest costs Depreciation 1,332 1,429 1,622 1,946 2,034 Profit before tax (before exceptional items) 15,538 16,104 17,074 17,324 20,489 Exceptional items - - (145) - - Tax 2,999 3,303 3,354 3,465 4,098 PAT (before exceptional items) 12,512 12,803 13,723 13,862 16,394 PAT 12,512 12,803 13,578 13,862 16,394 PAT margin (%) % Growth Exhibit 11: Balance sheet Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Share capital 1,759 1,762 1,762 1,760 1,760 Reserves 39,947 46,712 55,304 53,239 63,811 Net worth 41,706 48,474 57,065 54,999 65,571 Total debt 7,922 9,115 8,288 7,750 7,250 Deferred tax liability Total liabilities 46,788 55,085 62,654 60,841 71,212 Gross block 20,825 23,700 26,045 29,545 33,045 Depreciation 7,831 8,360 9,982 11,928 13,962 Net block 12,994 15,340 16,063 17,617 19,083 Capital work-in-progress 4,734 4,665 4,634 5,219 5,019 Investments 26,301 32,402 38,052 35,641 39,642 Inventories 10,965 11,067 12,562 12,580 15,102 Debtors 8,092 6,504 7,061 6,725 7,420 Cash 2,198 3,048 3,061 2,209 5,518 Loans & advances Other current assets Total current assets 32,157 31,165 34,398 30,988 38,431 Creditors 13,301 13,027 14,103 14,808 16,304 Other current liabilities & provisions 3,831 3,876 4,522 4,612 4,610 Total current liabilities 22,535 22,225 24,344 24,070 25,314 Net current assets 9,622 8,940 10,053 6,918 13,117 Total assets 46,788 55,085 62,672 60,858 71,230 Exhibit 10: Cash flow Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E PAT 12,512 12,803 13,578 13,862 16,394 Depreciation 1,332 1,429 1,622 1,946 2,034 Other income (2,172) (2,984) (3,052) (2,200) (3,500) (Inc.)/dec. in working capital (1,993) 1,542 (1,616) 2,334 (1,555) Cash flow from operations 10,163 13,330 11,062 16,407 13,808 Capital expenditure (-) (1,713) (3,748) (2,338) (4,085) (3,300) Net cash after capex 8,450 9,582 8,724 12,322 10,508 Dividends paid (-) (4,154) (4,764) (5,070) (15,843) (5,822) Inc./(dec.) in total borrowings 579 1,194 (827) (538) (500) Cash from financial activities (3,285) (4,780) (6,364) (16,952) (6,707) Opening cash balance 2,708 2,198 3,048 3,061 2,209 Closing cash balance 2,198 3,048 3,061 2,209 5,518 Change in cash balance 99 1,168 (96) (768) 3,309 Exhibit 12: Key ratios Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Per share (Rs) EPS Book value DPS Valuation (x) P/Sales EV/sales EV/EBITDA P/E P/BV Return ratios (%) RoCE RoE Profitability ratios (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin PAT margin Liquidity ratios (%) Current ratio Quick ratio Solvency ratio (%) Debt to equity ratio Turnover ratios Total asset turnover ratio (x) Fixed asset turnover ratio (x) Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days Dabur India
6 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Institutional Equities Rating track Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 29 September 2017 Accumulate November 2017 Accumulate February 2018 Accumulate Rating chart Not Covered Covered 6 Dabur India
7 Disclaimer Stock Ratings Absolute Returns BUY > 15% ACCUMULATE -5% to15% SELL < -5% DISCLOSURES This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBEPL ) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: We, Vijay Chugh, the Independent Research Analyst and Abhishek Navalgund, Research Associate are the authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 7 Dabur India
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Team Details: Name Id Direct Line Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com - Girish Pai Head of Research girish.pai@nirmalbang.com / 18 Dealing Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com , Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com /8101, Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com /8103, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. Correspondence Address B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai Board No. : /1; Fax. : Dabur India
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3QCY17 Result Update Institutional Equities Crisil 18 October 2017 Reuters: CRSL.BO; Bloomberg: CRISIL IN Weak SME Rating Revenues & Currency Movement Play Spoilsport Crisil s 3QCY17 performance was below
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Result Update Institutional Equities Ambuja Cements 26 July 218 Reuters: ABUJ.BO; Bloomberg: ACEM IN Performance Beats Expectations, Sustainability Is Key Challenge Ambuja Cements (ACEM) reported steady
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4QFY16 Result Update Institutional Equities Timken India 23 May 2016 Reuters: TMKN.BO; Bloomberg: TIMK IN Margin Expansion Leads To Huge Growth In Profit; Retain Buy Timken India (TIL), the leading manufacturer
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Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 2904 Recommendation CMP Target Price BUY Rs. 312 Rs. 443 Better times ahead! reported a good set of numbers in
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1QFY18 Result Update Institutional Equities HDFC Bank Reuters: HDBK.BO; Bloomberg: HDFCB IN Higher Fee Income Offsets Higher Provisioning HDFC Bank s net interest income or NII grew 20% in 1QFY18 driven
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4QFY17 Result Update Institutional Equities Capital First 11 May 2017 Reuters: CAPF.BO; Bloomberg: CAFL IN Net Interest Income Up, But Offset By Elevated Credit Costs Although the net interest income or
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Management Meet Update Atul Auto 23 August 2017 Reuters: ATUL.BO; Bloomberg: ATUL IN We had a meeting with the management of Atul Auto (AAL) recently to gauge its performance in the aftermath of a relatively
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