Glow Energy Plc. Results of February 2013

Transcription

1 Energy Plc. Results of February 213 1

2 Disclaimer The views expressed here may contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information contained in this presentation has been prepared based on number of assumptions which may be incorrect and/or not properly represent actual situation incurring in the future. The actual information contained in this presentation is for the purpose of illustration and presentation only. Should there be any discrepancies with audited/reviewed financial statements, annual report, and other official filings to SEC, the information presented in such documents should be relied upon as official information. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Group. This presentation shall not be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction. 2

3 s Results Summary 3

4 Key P&L performance indicator for is Normalized Net Profit (NNP) IPP, GHECO-One and HHPC have outstanding loan in USD which will be repaid by USD linked and USD operating cash flows Under Thai GAAP the outstanding USD loan is converted at year-end to THB at the then current exchange rate. Any difference in THB outstanding loan amount due to using a different exchange rate compared to last year leads to an unrealized FX gain (THB appreciation) or loss (THB depreciation). Since the USD loans in IPP, GHECO-One and HHPC are served by USD linked cash flows the unrealized FX gains / losses should, in s view, be ignored from an economic point of view. s management has focused on core operational profit. Therefore, we consider NNP, net profit ignoring net unrealized FX gains / losses, as basis for dividend payment consideration. 4

5 FY-212 Key Factors affecting results Cogen Business: Industrial customer sales volume continued to increase while gas margin on industrial customer electricity sales has recovered back to almost normal level in H Industrial demand increased, despite BSTE explosion in May. 74 MW sales to EGAT, non-firm during March-May and firm from June 212 IC electricity sales margin is eased after adjustment +3 Satang in Jun and +18 Satang of Ft in Sep, while gas price continue to rise, from tightest level observed in May 212. Better optimization of Cogeneration fleet dispatching more from Phase 5 and CFB units, thanks to improved volume, whereas all CFB units had major maintenance in H SPP12 started commercial operation on 12-Dec-212. IPP Business: GIPP: performed scheduled major maintenance for around 1.5 months per unit in Q1-212 and minor inspection in Q4-212 after reaching CAH in December 212. GHECO-One: started commercial operation and contribution 19-Aug-212. HHPC: returned to normal operation with production in 212 of 542 GWh, compared to approximately 9 GWh in

6 Financial Key Summary YoY Group (MTHB) vs 211 % Revenue (1) 4,955 58,318 17, % Gross Profit 12,433 17,223 4, % EBITDA 9,954 13,7 3, % Profit Before Tax 4,274 7,16 2, % Tax (221) -23.9% Net Profit 3,494 5,56 2, % Normalised Net Profit 4,14 5, % Key positive driver for 212, comparing YoY, is contribution from GHECO-One. Increasing IC sales volume and better utilization of Phase 5 and CFB units neutralized squeezed operating gas margin for first half of 212. Tax decreased mainly due to lower tax rate and contribution from newer units with BOI tax holdings. HHPC returning back to normal operations provides substantial variance YoY from operating loss in 211. Note: 1) Revenue from ordinary business excluding exchange gain / interest incomes / investment incomes. 6

7 Financial Key Summary - QoQ Group (MTHB) Q3-212 Q4-212 Q4-212 vs Q3-212 % Revenue (1) 15,69 17,233 1, % Gross Profit 4,531 5, % EBITDA 3,686 3, % Profit Before Tax 2,478 2,45 (433) -17.5% Tax (72) -28.5% Net Profit 1,885 1,579 (36) -16.2% Normalised Net Profit 1,492 1,486 (6) -.4% Key positive factor of Gross Profit and EBITDA for Q4-212, QoQ, is contribution from GHECO- One. However, the slight negative factor of NNP is mainly due to lower capacity payment of GIPP after reaching CAH and lower dispatch of HHPC in Q GIPP posted NNP 378 MTHB in Q3-212 and 267 MTHB in Q GHECO-One posted NNP 372 MTHB in Q3-212 and 631 MTHB in Q HHPC posted NNP 16 MTHB in Q3-212 and 6 MTHB in Q Note: 1) Revenue from ordinary business excluding exchange gain / interest incomes / investment incomes. 7

8 EBITDA & NNP by quarter from EBITDA in MTHB 5, NNP in MTHB 2, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1,3 1,73 1,14 1,652 1,762 1, ,554 1,113 1,492 1,486 1, ,766 1,82 1,935 1,751 1,9322,1 1, ,5 1, 5 Q1-211 Q2-211 Q3-211 Q4-211 Q1-212 Q2-212 Q3-212 Q4-212 EBITDA - Cogen Business EBITDA - IPP Business NNP - Consolidated H2-212 results are mainly driven by contribution of GHECO-One and improved gas margin. Results of Cogen business is flat from Q

9 Cogen Business - YoY Cogen Business (1) IPP Business (2) Group Bt mn change % % % Gross Operating Revenue (3) 29,97 38,26 8, ,17 2, ,955 58, Fuel Costs (Gas, Coal, Diesel, Biomass) 19,628 27,252 7, ,412 13, ,4 4, Other Variable Costs(Water/Chemicals) Gross Profit 9,45 1,39 1, ,547 7, ,433 17, Maintenance & Other Operating Costs 2,129 2, , ,479 4, EBITDA 6,916 7, ,19 5, ,954 13, Depreciation & Amortization 2,89 2, ,183 1, ,272 4, Net Financial Cost (4) 1,315 1, ,553 2, T axes Minority Interest of Net Profit 146 (843) Minority Interest of Unrealised FX Gain/Loss (245) 18 Normalised Net Profit 3,17 2, ,92 2, ,14 5, COGEN BUSINESS Industrial customer electricity sales volume increased by 9%, steam sale volume increased by 13%, and 74 MW new SPP sales started from March on non-firm basis and June for firm sales under PPA. Industrial sales volume increase mainly driven from new sales to GE Phase 5 customers and SPP11 contribution, despite loss of demand from BST group (1 MW and 125 ton/h) due to BSTE explosion in May. Ft increasing.3 THB/KWh in Jun-212 and.18 THB/kWh in Sep-212 brought gas operating margin closed to normal level despite the continue rising of gas price, while, on the other hand, steam margin increased in THB/ton terms. Note: 1) Cogen business includes operation of GE, SPP1, SPP2, SPP3, SPP11 and SPP12 2) IPP business consists of IPP, GHECO-One and HHPC 3) Excluding exchange gain / interest incomes / Investment Income 4) Net of interest incomes, interest expenses and financial related costs 9

10 IPP Business - YoY Cogen Business (1) IPP Business (2) Group Bt mn % change % % Gross Operating Revenue (3) 29,97 38, ,17 2,45 8, ,955 58, Fuel Costs (Gas, Coal, Diesel, Biomass) 19,628 27, ,412 13,292 4, ,4 4, Other Variable Costs(Water/Chemicals) Gross Profit 9,45 1, ,547 7,26 3, ,433 17, Maintenance & Other Operating Costs 2,129 2, , ,479 4, EBITDA 6,916 7, ,19 5,617 2, ,954 13, Depreciation & Amortization 2,89 2, ,183 1, ,272 4, Net Financial Cost (4) 1,315 1, ,553 2, T axes Minority Interest of Net Profit 146 (843) Minority Interest of Unrealised FX Gain/Loss (245) 18 Normalised Net Profit 3,17 2, ,92 2,75 1, ,14 5, IPP BUSINESS IPP reached contracted available hours and then performed minor maintenance. The result of 19 MTHB lower in EBITDA was mainly from less dispatched electricity due to major and minor maintenance. HHPC returned to normal operation resulting in higher EBITDA contribution of approximately 769 MTHB for the period. GHECO-One recorded DLD compensation from contractor in Q1-12 for 1,46 MTHB, expense on LD compensation to EGAT in Q2-12 for 618 MTHB and operational result contributed since19-aug-212. YTD EBITDA and NNP of GHECO-One is 2,3 and 1,386 MTHB, respectively. Note: 1) Cogen business includes operation of GE, SPP1, SPP2, SPP3, SPP11 and SPP12 2) IPP business consists of IPP, GHECO-One and HHPC 3) Excluding exchange gain / interest incomes/ Investment Income 4) Net of interest incomes interest expenses and financial related costs 1

11 Summary of Economic Indicators % MW Contracted (EGAT + ICs) MW 2,194 (1) 3, TPH Contracted tph 1,9 (1) 1,5 4.1 EGAT IPP business GWh 4,93 (2) 7, EGAT SPP business GWh 4,49 5, Industrial Customer GWh electricity sold GWh 4,249 4, Industrial Customer kton steam sold kton 6,22 7, Average PEA Price THB/kWh Average Gas Cost - Cogen business THB/mmBTU Average Gas Cost - IPP business THB/mmBTU (3) Coal Price FOB USD/Ton JPU Freight Price USD/Ton actual Availability - Cogen Business % 93.6% 95.5% Availability - GIPP % 96.3% 85.5% Availability - GHECO-One % 98.9% Unplanned Outage Factor - Cogen business % 1.9% 1.9% Unplanned Outage Factor - GIPP % 1.9%.9% Unplanned Outage Factor - GHECO-One % 1.1% IPP Heatrate BTU/kWhe 6,924 6,93.1 GHECO-One Heatrate BTU/kWhe 9,94 N/A Allocated Cogen Heatrate (Coal Units) BTU/kWhe 1,796 1, (4) Allocated Cogen Heatrate (Gas Units) BTU/kWhe 8,631 8,29-7. GSPP11&12 Heatrate BTU/kWhe 8,437 7, Exchange Rate THB/USD Note: 1) Increase from new contracted capacity to EGAT 826 MW and ICs 4 MW and 41 tph. 2) Includes HHPC Electricity Sales of 9 GWh in 211 and 542 GWh in 212 3) Price excludes biomass which currently is used up to 5% of coal volume. 4) Includes GE Phase 5 Heat rate. 11

12 Revenue : Volumes EGAT EGAT IPP Business (GWh) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 8, 6, 4, 2, EGAT IPP Business (GWh) 7, % 4,93 1,826 4,841 4, (1) (2) IPP HHPC GHECO-One (3) EGAT SPP Business (GWh) (4) 6, 4, EGAT SPP Business (GWh) 5, % 4,49 2, Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec Note: 1) GIPP EGAT Sales lower vs. 211, due to scheduled major maintenance. 2) HHPC includes sales EDL 3) GHECO-One started recording on 19-Aug-212 4) SPP12 started COD on 12-Dec

13 Revenue : Volumes Industrial Customer Sales IC Power (GWh) IC Electricity Sales (GWh) 6, 4, 4, % 4, (3) , Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 IC Steam Sales (ktons) IC Steam Sales (ktons) 8, 6, 4, 6, % 7, (3) , Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Note: 1) Industrial customer demand rebound to normal level despite effects from BSTE explosion in May ) Even though supply contracts to industrial customers have Minimum Take Obligation, fluctuation between MTO level and actual affects our performance. 3) The significant drop in Sep-12 was due to customer maintenance 13

14 Operating margin Average Gas Price Cogen (Bt/mmBTU) % Average IC Selling Price (Bt/kWh) % Average Gas Price IPP (Bt/mmBTU) % (1) Gas Price Change vs IC Tariff Change 3% Gas IC Gas IC 2.7% 2% 17.% 1.2% 1%.6% % FY-1 vs FY-11 FY-11 vs FY-12 Note : 1) IPP gas price is on pass-through basis. % Gas Price Change % IC Price Change 14

15 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 THB/kWh Gas and coal margin is going back to normal level Avg. PEA Price Gas Cost Coal Cost.49 THB/kWh EGAT s fuel subsidization Average =.6 THB/kWh Average = 1.7 THB/kWh EGAT s fuel subsidization 2.4 THB/kWh 1..5 Operating margin for both gas and coal are eased after Ft adjustment: Gas price continued to increase, while global coal index declined Ft was adjusted by +.3 THB/kWh for Jun-Aug and +.18 THB/kWh for Sep-Dec. Our coal cost for 212 and 213 has been hedged, while coal index has decreased. Note: 1) PEA Price = Base Tariff assumed at 1.8 THB/kWh + actual FT until Jun 211 and at 2.8 THB/kWh + actual FT since Jul 211 2) Gas Cost = Blended SPP gas costs in THB/mmBTU x Constant Gas-fired heatrate of 8,8 * BTU/kWh / 1^6 (*8,6 BTU/kWh since Nov 211 from efficiency of Phase 5) 3) Coal Cost = Average FOB Coal Cost in THB/mmBTU x Constant Coal-fired heatrate of 1,3 BTU/kWh / 1^6 15

16 Gas margin tightened through May-12, then relieved by increasing of Ft PEA Tariff (THB/kWh) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Electricity Margin (THB/kWh) Gas Margin Coal Margin Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Gas Price (THB/mmBTU) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Note : 1) Ft increase 3 Satang in Jun-12 and 18 Satang in Sep-12 16

17 Coal & Freight Cogen Business vs 211 % COAL mmbtu/ton JPU TON JPU 998,19 983,538 (14,48) -1.5% AVERAGE JPU&ABARE COAL INDEX USD/TON JPU (2.7) -2.2% AVERAGE COAL PRICE AT FOB USD/TON JPU % FREIGHT PRICE USD/TON actual (1.4) -12.% TOTAL COAL PRICE (CIF) USD/TON JPU % TOTAL COAL PRICE (CIF) THB/mmBTU % For 212, locked open position at 114 USD/Ton JPU (FOB), compared to average FOB price of 97.2 USD/Ton JPU in 211. For 213, has locked open position at 85 USD/Ton JPU (FOB), compared to current Coal index (average of JPU&BREE index) at USD/Ton JPU Note: Average JPU&BREE Coal Price Index - Apr 29 Mar 21 : 7.18 USD/Ton JPU. - Apr 21 Dec 21 : 98. USD/Ton JPU (Coal Price Index is adjusted and retroactive to April 21) - Jan 211 Mar 211 : USD/Ton JPU. - Apr 211 Mar 212 : USD/Ton JPU. - Apr 212 Mar 213 : USD/Ton JPU. 17

18 Production (GWh) Water Level (m.a.s.l) HHPC has returned to normal operation in Annual Production and Water Level Energy Production Reservoir W.L end of June Reservoir W.L end of Year Year HHPC has good rainfall of 2,492 mm. in 212, compared to 2,295 in 211 With high amount of water in reservoir, we planned to maintain at least 469 GWh production in

19 Summary of Results EBITDA Consolidated EBITDA Analysis (+3,116mn / +31.3%) 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 5, +1, ,7 9, (19) COD in Q Cogen IPP GHECO-One HHPC Others 212 Cogen business EBITDA IPP business EBITDA 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 6, mn 7.8% 7,452 6, 4, 2, 3,19 +2,59 mn 8.7% 5, Note : 1) All Figures in THB Millions. 19

20 Key Drivers EBITDA 8, 6, 4, 2, 6,916 Cogen Business EBITDA Analysis (+537 mn / +7.8%) +1,265 (378) (351) Volume (+67) Capacity (+589) Margin (+43) Others (-37) Routine (-243) AB-Inspection (-19) LTSA (-26) Electricity and operations (-14) Admin Expenses (-82) Right of Use (-47) Others (-82) 7, GM Impact Cogen Maintenance Other Operation 212 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3,19 IPP Business EBITDA Analysis (+2,59 mn / +8.7%) (19) Volume Planned Outage ,845 Started operating 211 GM Impact GIPP GM Impact HHPC EBITDA Impact GHECO-One 5, Note : 1) All Figures in THB Millions. 2

21 Key Drivers Normalized Net Profit Cogen Business NNP IPP Business NNP 4, 3, 2, 1, 3,17 2,912-16mn -3.5% 3, 2, 1, 1,92 +1,613 mn % 2, Consolidated NNP (+975 mn / +23.7%) 8, 6, 4, 2, 4,14 +3,116 (1,88) (829) Phase 5 GHECO-One Lower rate Phase 5 GHECO-One 211 EBITDA Impact Depreciation Income Tax Interest Expense Financial Expenses (562) 5,78 Minority Interest 212 Note : (1) All Figures in THB Million.. 21

22 Financial Status 22

23 Summary Cash Flow Statement Of the THB 11,861 mn (1) ending cash balance of 31 Dec 12 THB 3,94 mn is in Cogen Business THB 7,921 mn is in IPP Business (2) Debt Repayment in 212 GE THB 3, mn in Dec-12 GIPP USD 7.9 mn in Jun-12 USD 11.7 mn in Dec-12 HHPC THB 3.4 mn & USD 1.7 mn in Jun-12 THB 3.4 mn & USD 1.7 mn in Dec-12 GHECO-One THB mn & USD 16.2 mn in Oct-12 Note: (1) Ending Balance 11,861 Bt mn excludes temporary investments of 1,134 Bt mn (Cogen 1,6 Btmn + IPP Business 128 Btmn) (2) IPP Business consists of IPP, GHECO-One, and Houay Ho Power. 23

24 Key Financial Indicators : Outstanding Debts 212 3, Cogen Repayment Profile (MTHB) 6, 6, 5,5 5,56 5,6 4, 3,4 5,555 MTHB 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Consolidated Group Gross Debts 73,666 73,358 41,224 42,584 32,441 3, Cogen Business IPP Business Total Gross consolidated Debt was 73,358 MTHB in 212 versus 73,666 MTHB in 211 IPP Business Repayment Profile (MUSD) GHECO-One* HHPC* IPP * HHPC and GHECO-One Loan consists of USD tranche and THB tranche 3 Baht/USD) 24

25 Key Financial Indicators DSCR IPP (incl. cash) 2.72 (5.98) 2.82 (6.53) DSCR Cogen (incl. cash) 1.94 (2.95) 3.62 (6.2) D/E Ratio Conso: Gross D/E (Net D/E) 2.15 (1.9) 1.99 (1.64) Cogen: Gross D/E (Net D/E) 1.2 (1.8) 1.16 (1.2) Interest Coverage Ratio Cogen s long term target is to maintain the following DSCR excluding cash on hand of not less than 1.6x D/E of not more than 1.x but allowing for temporary hike if due to consolidation effect during construction ICR of not less than 5.x D/E ratio is expected to start decreasing from scheduled debt repayment. Note : IPP - DSCR = ( IPP EBITDA) / (Principal + Interest + Financial Charge) Cogen - DSCR = ( Cogen EBITDA + Dividend from IPP business) / (Principal + Interest + Financial Charge) Gross D/E = Total Outstanding Debts / Total Equities Net D/E Cogen - ICR = (Total Outstanding Debts cash) / Total Equities = ( Cogen EBITDA + Dividend from IPP business) / (Interest) 25

26 Expansion Program Completed 4, MWeq SPP11 & 13 (1) GHECO-One 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1% 18% Houay Ho; Hydro IPP 152 MW 67.25% HHPC 114% CFB3; 115 MWeq coal-fired cogen Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q2-1 Q3-1 Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q % 14% Phase 5; 382 MWeq gas-fired cogen SPP11 & 13; 143 MW gas-fired cogen 174% 18% GHECO-One; 66 MW Coal-fired IPP Solar AIE 1.55 MW solar farm SPP12; 11 MW gasfired cogen Solar AIE Capacity as of Q1-29 : 1,996 MWeq Q4-212 : 3,53 MWeq (increase of around 8% ) CFB3 Phase 5 SPP12 (2) Note: (1) SPP11 & SPP 13 are formerly known as TNP1 and RNP respectively. (2) SPP12 is formerly known as TNP2. 26

27 Thank you 27

28 Q&A 28