TATA POWER COMPANY LTD RESEARCH
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- Logan Cummings
- 5 years ago
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1 RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs bn Price Rs BSE Sensex 13, Reuters TTPW.BO Bloomberg TPWR IN Avg. Volume (52 Week) 0.17 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs.1230 / Shares Outstanding mn Valuation Ratios Year to 31 March 2010E 2011E EPS (Rs.) /- (%) 12.8% 14.5% PER (x) 16.8x 14.7x EV/ Sales (x) 1.8x 1.6x EV/ EBITDA (x) 9.1x 8.0x Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 33 FIIs 19 Institutions 29 Public & Others 19 Relative Performance Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 TPC Rebased BSE Index Tata Power Stock price discounts the medium term growth Tata Power Company delivered a solid set of numbers on the back of strong performance in the coal business. Consolidated net profit increased 27% y-o-y to Rs bn. The company added generation capacity of 421 MW during the year and its capacity expansion projects remain on track or ahead of schedule. However, the stock has increased significantly since our last update and, in our view, now fully discounts most of the upside embedded in the projects under implementation. Consequently, we have downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Capacity expansion well on track During the year TPC s installed capacity increased 421 MW to 2,785 MW. Moverover, the capacity expansion program remains well on track. The Mundra project is now more than 23% complete and has been awarded contracts by PGCIL for new lines as well as for strengthening existing lines. Work on Maithon proect is in progress as per schedule and PPAs have been signed with DVC, NDPL, WBSEB and PSEB. Haldia s first two units (45 MW each) have been commisioned and the third unit is expected to be operational soon. As generation from the Haldia project stabilises, we expect the contribution of merchant sales to increase. But funding the expansion will lead in equity dilution As per the management, over the next three years, TPC would require equity infusion of about Rs. 55bn to fund the capacity expansion projects. Of this, approximately Rs. 28bn can be funded through internal accruals. For the remaining amount, company would need to either sell its nonstrategic investments or raise additional equity capital through equity dilution at the parent or subsidiary level. Key Figures (Standalone) Quarterly Data Q4'08 Q3'09 Q4'09 QoQ% YoY% (Figures in Rs. mn, except per share data) Net Sales 16,345 17,769 14,744 (17.0)% (9.8)% EBITDA 1,522 2,560 2, % 92.8% Adj. Net Profit 1,664 1,151 4, % 162.6% Margins(%) EBITDA 9.3% 14.4% 19.9% NPM 10.2% 6.5% 29.6% Hold Per Share Data (Rs.) Adjusted EPS % 164.5% Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -1-
2 We believe that the company will be able to sell roughly Rs. 8bn through the sale of non-strategic investments; the remaining amount will require equity dilution, which at current stock prices, would necessitate an equity dilution of roughly 10% at the parent level. In our valuation, we have baked in this dilution and have consequently added the embedded value of the capacity expansion projects currently in hand. Coal business likely to remain subdued in the medium term In FY09, the Coal segment's strong performance was the major reason for the 61% jump in Tata Power's total income. However, given the sharp correction in coal prices, we expect revenues from this business to fall by ~20% in FY10. In recognition of the changed dynamics of the coal business, the Company also recognised a goodwill impairment loss of Rs. 2.8bn relating to its investments in coal companies - KPC and Arutmin. Valuation Our SOTP based valuation indicates a fair value of Rs. 1,163.6 for Tata Power, indicating an upside of 7.7% over the CMP of Rs We believe that the current price largely discounts the near-to-medium term growth potential, and thus downgrade the stock from Buy to Hold. SOTP Business Value per share Commissioned power generation projects License Area Distribution Assets: 48.5 Coal Mines in Indonesia: NDPL 26.4 Powerlinks 3.5 Tata Power Trading 4.5 Strategic Elec Division 12.7 Tata BP Solar 61.0 NELCO 2.3 Investments 81.0 Projects in hand Total 1,163.6 Source: Company Data, Indiabulls Estimates Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -2-
3 Generation assets are valued at Rs. 364 per share: Mumbai License Area contributes Rs. 230 per share (P/B 2.3x), Merchant Power Generation projects are valued at Rs. 36 per share (P/B 3.5x); other generation projects are valued at Rs. 98 per share (P/B 2.3x). Indonesian coal mines are valued at Rs. 125 per share based on acquisition value of USD 1.1bn less outstanding loans of USD 764mn less impairment loss recognized in and a target P/B of 2.3x. Investments are valued at Rs. 81 per share: This comprises of listed investments valued at current market price (Rs per share) and unquoted investments valued at book (Rs per share). Other businesses are valued at Rs. 159 per share: (a) NDPL, Powerlinks, and License area distribution assets are valued at P/B multiple of 2.3x based on 2008 equity, (b) TPC s stake in Nelco is valued at current market price, (c) TPTC at P/E multiple of 25x, (d) SED at P/Sales multiple of 3x and (e) TPC s 49% stake in Tata BP Solar is valued at 3.5x sales based on 2008 revenue. Value of projects in hand is valued at Rs. 435 per share: TPC is currently executing projects (primarily Mundra and Maithon) which will require funding of Rs. 236bn over the next three years. Of this equity component is Rs. 55bn. We have valued this to-be-injected-equity at 2.3x and have discounted it at 16% to reflect the value of projects in hand. Result Highlights (Annual Consolidated) Revenues, COGS, and gross profit margin Tata Power's total income jumped 61% y-o-y to Rs bn. This hike is attributable to the strong performance of coal businesses and commissioning of Haldia and the Wind projects. Additionally, the Company now treats NDPL as a subsidiary vis-à-vis a joint venture; this has helped boost its top-line. However, coal processing charges, cost of fuel, and cost of power for FY09 rose 64.3% y-o-y to Rs bn, resulting in a gross profit of Rs. 58.9bn. The gross profit margin declined 120 bps to 33.5%. We expect revenues to grow ~3% in FY10 and ~15% in FY11. Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -3-
4 SGA & other expenses, other income, and EBIT: Selling, general, administration and other expenses increased significantly to Rs. 26.3bn, up 59% y-o-y. The increase is due to the addition of NDPL as a subsidiary and the commissioning of Haldia and the Wind projects. Other Income stood at Rs 5.6bn compared to Rs 5.2bn in FY08. With depreciation and amortization of Rs. 6.6bn, EBIT for FY09 stood at Rs. 26.1bn. Net Profit: Tata Power's net profit stood at Rs. 12.6bn for FY09, 26.8% higher over last year. The net income margin dropped from 9.1% in FY08 to 7.2% in FY09. Key Figures (Consolidated) Year to March FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E CAGR(%) (Figures in Rs. m, except per share data) (FY09-11E) Net Sales 108, , , , % EBITDA 21,221 32,651 35,647 40, % Net Profit 9,965 12,640 14,254 16, % Margins(%) EBITDA 19.5% 18.6% 19.8% 19.8% NPM 9.1% 7.2% 7.9% 7.9% Per Share Data (Rs.) Normalized EPS % PER (x) 23.0x 18.9x 16.8x 14.7x Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -4-
5 Disclaimer This report is not for public distribution and is only for private circulation and use. The Report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or person(s) in any form. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of this report. This material is for the general information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be considered as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any stock or derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Indiabulls Securities Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. You are advised to independently evaluate the investments and strategies discussed herein and also seek the advice of your financial adviser. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of changes in the macro and micro economic conditions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed here in reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Indiabulls Securities Limited (ISL) and any/all of its group companies or directors or employees reserves its right to suspend the publication of this Report and are not under any obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. In addition, ISL has no obligation to continue to publish reports on all the stocks currently under its coverage or to notify you in the event it terminates its coverage. Neither Indiabulls Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates, associates, directors or employees shall in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any error in the information contained in this report. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject stock and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Indiabulls Securities Limited prior written consent. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Indiabulls Securities Limited recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Indiabulls Securities Limited shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of National Stock Exchange or Bombay Stock Exchange. Indiabulls (H.O.), Plot No , Udyog Vihar, Phase - V, Gurgaon , Haryana. Ph: (0124) ,
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More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year FY14 391,088 45,198 34, FY15E 354,262 35,426 23,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our negative stance on the stock. We expect s revenue to de-grow by 9% y-o-y on the back of muted execution (client side and clearance delays)
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Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 s. Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.. October 25, 217 BSE Code: 53965 NSE Code: IOC Reuters Code: IOC.NS Bloomberg Code:
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We maintain our positive stance on s (TRCL). The company is one of the largest cement producers in South and remains among the best plays on Southern
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May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 India Research Infrastructure May 27, 2015 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: SINF IN Reuters: SINF.BO HOLD Working capital ease to improve
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We expect KPP s revenue (standalone) to grow by 21% y-o-y in FY17E backed by an order book of Rs. 91bn (1.7x FY17E book-to-bill). Both Transmission line
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We maintain our negative stance on SKF India due to the absence of significant growth momentum drivers over the medium term. While railways could be
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Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Volume No.. III Issue No. 188. Axis Bank Ltd. October 08, 2018 BSE Code: 532215 NSE Code: AXISBANK Reuters Code:
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Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Q1FY17 RESULT UPDATE GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS Research RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH State Bank of India (SBI) Banking BSE
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Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Volume No.. III Issue No. 160. ICICI BANK Ltd. Feb. 08, 2018 BSE Code: 532174 NSE Code: ICICIBANK Reuters Code:
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Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17. Volume No.. I Issue No. 147 HDFC Bank Oct. 31, 2017 BSE Code: 500180 NSE Code: HDFCBANK Reuters Code: HDBK.NS
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Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 February 12, 2016 COMPANY RESULTS REPORT REVIEW Analyst Sudeep Anand +91-22-4322 1190 sudeep.anand@idbicapital.com
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v-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 v-18 Q2FY19 Result Update Q2FY19 Result Update BUY CMP (Rs) 5,813 Target Price (Rs) 6,519 Potential Upside 12.1% Sensex
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More informationBharat Forge. Strong traction in exports. (our estimate Rs730m). Source: Company Data; PL Research
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