FX Viewpoint. Wednesday, September 14, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update

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1 FX Viewpoint Wednesday, September 14, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: Risk of the short term capitulation infecting medium term prospects for Asian currencies, especially if the eventual Fed rate hike results in a market being temporarily less enamored with EM/Asia. Beset by the significant loss of inflow momentum, the KRW, IDR, and PHP are seen to be relatively more at risk to any bout of dollar strength in the near term (monthly horizon). Structurally (3-month horizon), net short term inflows have deteriorated sufficiently to impinge on PHP prospects, and as pointed out previously, satiation may be kicking in for and. Investments & Structured Product Tel: Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: Treasury Research & Strategy Tel: Emmanuel Ng ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com

2 USD-TWD USD-TWD USD-KRW USD-KRW Apr-215 Jul-215 Oct-215 Jan-216 Mar-216 Jun-216 Sep-216 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS SOUTH KOREA Feb Nov Aug May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec Sep-16 NFB: Bond & Equity:RS6 USD-KRW (RHS) Bond & Eq RS 6D May-215 Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 Jun-216 Sep-216 NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD TWD vs Net foreign equity interest NFB: 2D RS Nov Jul Apr Dec Sep-16 6-day RS USD-TWD TSEC net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 2

3 USD-IDR USD-IDR 5 INDIA India Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 Jun-216 Sep NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest 56 India Dec-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 RS May-15 Sep-16 Jul-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Bond & Equity:2D RS USD-IDR Aug May-14 3-Mar-15 8-Dec Sep-16 Bond & Equity: 6D RS USD-IDR - - SEBI net bond & eq RS Bond & Equity: 2D RS Net foreign bond & eq RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 3

4 USD-PHP USD-PHP USD-THB USD-THB Jul-215 Dec-215 Apr-216 Sep-216 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB Net bond & equity WTD RS Aug May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec Sep-16 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 USD-THB Jul-215 Dec-215 Apr-216 Sep-216 NFB: RS2 USD-PHP PHP vs Net foreign equity interest Net bond & equity WTD RS NFB: RS Aug May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec Sep-16 USD-PHP NFB: RS Net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 4

5 This publication is solely for information purposes only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our prior written consent. This publication should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities/instruments mentioned herein. Any forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market and economic trends of the markets provided is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the securities/instruments. Whilst the information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we cannot guarantee and we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. The securities/instruments mentioned in this publication may not be suitable for investment by all investors. Any opinion or estimate contained in this report is subject to change without notice. We have not given any consideration to and we have not made any investigation of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient or any class of persons, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient or any class of persons acting on such information or opinion or estimate. This publication may cover a wide range of topics and is not intended to be a comprehensive study or to provide any recommendation or advice on personal investing or financial planning. Accordingly, they should not be relied on or treated as a substitute for specific advice concerning individual situations. Please seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before you make a commitment to purchase the investment product. OCBC and/or its related and affiliated corporations may at any time make markets in the securities/instruments mentioned in this publication and together with their respective directors and officers, may have or take positions in the securities/instruments mentioned in this publication and may be engaged in purchasing or selling the same for themselves or their clients, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other investment or securities-related services for the corporations whose securities are mentioned in this publication as well as other parties generally. Co.Reg.no.: 192W Treasury & Strategy Research 5

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