Improved tools for river flood preparedness under changing risk - Poland
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1 7th Study Conference on BALTEX, Borgholm, Sweden, June 2013 Improved tools for river flood preparedness under changing risk - Poland Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
2 - Changing flood risk in Poland - Improved tools for river flood preparedness
3 - Changing flood risk in Poland - Improved tools for river flood preparedness
4 River flooding in Poland River flooding is the most destructive natural peril in the Baltic Sea Basin in general and in Poland in particular. Flood risk and preparedness became matters of broad concern, following the dramatic floods in Poland in 1997 and 2010, when dozens of people were killed, national flood losses reached the level of billions of Euros and the topic made it to cover stories.
5 Floods in PL, May-June 2013
6 IAHS Special Publication 10 (April 2012) ISBN ISBN (Paperback); xvi pages
7 y = x R 2 = Severity=>1.5 Magnitude=>5 y = x R 2 = Increasing number of large floods, according to the data in Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2012)
8 Trend in number of days with precipitation in excess of 30 mm, and (b) trend in maximum 5-day precipitation, (after Lorenc & Olecka, 2006).
9 Catastrophic floods of regional extent in Poland: from 1946 to 1970; from 1971 to 1990; from 1991 to 2010; from 1946 to Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2012)
10 The highest flood hazard can be attributed to the following situations of multiple risk type: A flood wave on a tributary coincides with a flood wave on the main river. Especially dangerous locations are: the confluence of the River Nysa Kłodzka with the Odra, the confluence of the River Warta with the Odra, and the confluences of the Dunajec, the San and the Narew rivers with the Vistula. Intense rainfall during snow melting (on the lowlands). Intense rainfall in urban areas during passage of a flood wave on a river.
11
12 Projections of intense precipitation Source: IPCC SREX
13 Recurrence interval of today s 100-year floods (i.e. flood with a recurrence interval of 100 years during the period ) at the end of the 21 st century ( ), for emission scenario SRES A2. Source: Dankers & Feyen, J. Geoph. Res. (2008).
14 - Changing flood risk in Poland - Improved tools for river flood preparedness
15 Observations and projections There has been an increasing number of local floods in urban areas (flash floods), including large towns, caused by intense rainfall, when the capacity of the urban sewer systems is too small. The flood damage potential has considerably increased. Increasing flood exposure results from human encroachment into floodplains and economic development of flood-prone areas. The assets at risk from flooding are enormous, and growing, with the wealth of the nation. Projections for the future illustrate the possibility of increasing flood hazard in much of the country, due to increasing frequency and amplitude of intense precipitation and increasing frequency of wet circulation patterns. On the other hand, snowmelt flood hazard is expected to decrease.
16 Changes in flood risk Changes in climate and hydrological systems (heavy precipitation, land-use change, urbanization, deforestation, river regulation channel straightening, embankments) Changes in socio-economic systems: (increasing exposure flood plain development, growing wealth in flood-prone areas)
17 1000-year flood
18 Old 1000-year flood New 1000-year flood
19 In comparison to rural areas, the peak flow corresponding to a given precipitation is higher and faster in urban areas.
20 Water holding capacity of the atmosphere Clausius-Clapeyron equation de (T) / e (T) = L dt / R s s T2 where e s (T) is the saturation vapor pressure at temperature T, L is the latent heat of vaporization, and R is the gas constant. T grows e s (T) grows 1 o C 6-7%
21 Why have the flood risk and flood damage grown in Poland? - Floodplain management and watershed management - Organization of flood protection - Awareness of endangered population - Gaps in information (QPFs deficient need for probability range; FFA methods arbitrary and subjective) - Insurance policy - Technical state of structural defenses
22 Flood protection and management strategies modify either flood waters, or susceptibility to flood damage and impact of flooding. Protect [Absolute protection does not exist] Accommodate [Living with floods, learning from them] Retreat [The state/province purchases land and property in flood-prone areas]
23 Flood defenses and preparedness systems Flood defenses in the Vistula basin include embankments of approx km in length, protecting an area of about 5300 km 2. The flood protection system in the Odra basin consists of embankments, weirs, reservoirs (including dry flood protection reservoirs), relief channels, and a system of polders. However, total capacity of water storage reservoirs in Poland is only 6% of the mean annual runoff. Flood preparedness system includes also non-structural measures, e.g. forecast-warning component.
24 European Union Floods Directive Preliminary flood risk assessment (including assessment of the projected impact of climate change trends; forecast of estimated consequences of future floods, ). Preparation of flood maps and indicative flood damage maps, covering the geographical areas which could be flooded with a high probability; with a medium probability, and with a low probability (extreme events). Preparation and implementation of flood risk management plans, aimed at achieving the required levels of protection. 24
25
26
27 There is no doubt that better accommodation of extremes of present climate variability augurs better for the future climate, subject to change. Since uncertainty in projections for the future is large, precautionary attitude should be taken when planning adaptation.
28 Source: Wilby & Dessai, 2010
29 Flood protection strategy: - Rectification of principles of spatial policy (enforcement of zoning) - Organization (basin scale management, personal responsibility) - Technical measures (dikes, reservoirs, relief channels) - Raising awareness of flood risk - (Re)Naturalization of rivers - Improvement of forecasts
30 Program for the Odra 2006 Program of flood protection in the basin of Upper Vistula Criticism from the UE. Strategy based on assumptions rather than serious efficiency consideration. Structural approach: dikes and dams insufficient. Costs and effects of flood protection measures: Costs real Effects imaginary
31 31
32 EU FP7 STAR-FLOOD Project (STrengthening And Redesigning European FLOOD risk practices: Towards appropriate and resilient flood risk governance arrangements) Committee on Hazards related to Water, Polish Academy of Sciences
33 Thank you
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STRATEGIC FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED VARIATION NO. 1 (CORE STRATEGY) TO THE LONGFORD TOWN DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2009-2015 for: Longford Local Authorities Great Water Street, Longford, Co. Longford by: