Flood Risk Management in Ireland. The National CFRAM Programme & overview of the Capital Works Programme. Click to add text

Transcription

1 Flood Risk Management in Ireland The National CFRAM Programme & overview of the Capital Works Programme Click to add text Dr. John Martin Office of Public Works Engineers Ireland's Local Government Seminar Athlone, 18th February 2016

2 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

3 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND WINTER STORMS:

4 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND WINTER FLOODING: Click to add text

5 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND 4th FEBRUARY 2014 CORK CITY

6 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND 6th FEBRUARY CLONMEL

7 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND NOVEMBER CORK Click to add text

8 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND NOVEMBER ATHLONE Click to add text

9 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND DUBLIN Click to add text

10 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (GTF) Flooding: No. 1 National Risk NATIONAL PFRA Appx. 70,000 Homes at Risk (in Undefended Floodplains) RECENT FLOODS December 2015/January 2016: TBC... November 2009: >1,600 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 250m October 2011: Nearly 1,700 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 130m

11 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE : Rise of 190mm Current Rate of Rise: 3.2mm/yr Significant Increase in Tidal / Coastal Risk for a 500mm Rise in MSL FLUVIAL, PLUVIAL & GROUNDWATER No Significant Signal for Change in Annual Rainfall Projected Wetter Winters / Warmer Summers Potential for Increase in Flooding Uncertain!

12 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

13 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Flood (Typically Coastal) Protection Embankments Became Land Commission Embankments Almost All Now in Private Ownership Remaining Embankments (Very Few) Trustee in DAFM

14 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Minor / Local Drainage Schemes Local Authorities Responsible for Maintenance

15 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 River-basin Arterial Drainage / Embankment Schemes 1950 s-80 s (+ Monaghan Blackwater) OPW Statutory Duty for Maintenance Channels / Embankments Typically Maintained on a 5-yr Cycle (Appx. 2,200kms Channel / year)

16

17 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 OPW Statutory Duty for Maintenance Annual Maintenance Budget: Circa 15m Section 47 Consent for Weirs Section 48 Protection of Scheme Channels Section 50 Consent for Bridges

18 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 River-basin Arterial Drainage / Embankment Schemes OPW Statutory Duty for Maintenance Hydrometric Monitoring Appx. 390 WL/Q Fluvial / Tidal Gauges Appx. 60 Rainfall gauges HydroData.ie, Waterlevel.ie

19 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 A.D. (Amendment) Act, 1995 Local, Urban Flood Protection Schemes

20

21 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 A.D. (Amendment) Act, 1995 Local, Urban Flood Protection Schemes Appx. 325m on 34 Schemes Providing Protection to nearly 6,000 Properties (to end 2014) Benefits > 1bn Annual Capital Budget: 45m

22 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY REVIEW: 2004 OPW: Lead Agency Proactive, Catchment-based Approach Flood Mapping Flood Risk Management Plans Flood Risk Management, rather than just Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes): Prevention Protection Preparedness (Resilience)

23 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

24 EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 TRANSPOSED: SI No. 122 of 2010 KEY REQUIREMENTS Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment Flood Maps Flood Risk Management Plans OTHER PROVISIONS Co-ordination with WFD implementation Trans-boundary co-operation Public dissemination / engagement

25 PFRA BASED ON: Historical Records Predictive Assessment (Fluvial, Pluvial Coastal, Groundwater Indicative Mapping + FRI Analysis)

26

27

28

29 PFRA BASED ON: Historical Records Predictive Assessment (Fluvial, Pluvial Coastal, Groundwater Indicative Mapping + FRI Analysis) Stakeholder Consultation PUBLIC CONSULTATION COMPLETED AFAs

30 300 AFAs

31 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

32 CFRAM Programme Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment & Management Programme; A key recommendation of the Report of the Flood Policy Review Group (approved by Government, 2004) Delivering on key requirements of the EU Directive 2007/EC/60 on the assessment & management of Flood Risk

33 CFRAM Programme FLOOD MAPPING (2014): Predictive maps of lands estimated to be flood prone, for a range of flood probabilities, for rivers through / coastlines of 300 areas around Ireland; FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANS (2016): Flood Risk Management Strategies for areas of Significant Risk as part of a series of Flood Risk Management Plans

34 CFRAM PROGRAMME Pilot Studies: Lee, Dodder, Fingal East Meath: National Programme:

35 6 Contract Areas - Shannon IRBD - Eastern RBD - South-Eastern RBD - South-Western RBD - Western RBD - North-Western & Click to add text - Neagh Bann IRBD 29 UoMs 1 FRMP per UoM 300 AFAs

36 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES National National Steering Group National Stakeholder Group National Technical Coordination Group RBD-Level Steering Group Progress Group Stakeholder Group

37 SCOPE OF WORK Survey 10,000km2 LiDAR-based DTM Appx. 7,000km Channel (topo) Survey Data Collection Hydrology FSU Web-Portal (On-line Flood Estimation Tool) Hydraulics / Flood Mapping

38 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

39 Probability & Likelihood Best practice: To estimate the magnitude, level and extent of flood events that have a specific Likelihood or Probability of occurring/being exceeded; To plan accordingly for these theoretical events; e.g. 1:100 Chance of occurring or being exceeded in any given year = 1% A.E.P. (former 100 year flood ).

40 Flood mapping Analysis of long-term rainfall / river flow records; Quantifying flows for a range of Probabilities Detailed models of river channels & floodplain topography; Maps of fluvial (river) and tidal flood for 3 x Probabilities

41 300 areas; 6,700 km of river channel; 9,400 sq.km of floodplain survey/3d models Detailed computer models of flow, levels and extents in river channels & floodplain topography Inform Sustainable Planning, Emergency, Response Planning & Resilience

42 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Current Scenario Mapping 8 Event Probabilities Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone

43

44

45

46

47

48 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Current Scenario Mapping 8 Probabilities Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone 7 Risk Maps

49

50

51

52 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Current Scenario Mapping 8 Probabilities Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone 7 Risk Maps Defence Failure Mapping Future Scenario Mapping Representative Climate Futures MRFS / HEFS (+20/30% Qp, 500/1000mm MSL Rise) Enhance for 2nd Cycle

53 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS Public Consultation 208 PCDs (Completed) Formal SI Consultation Scope Floods Directive Maps Only (for AFAs ) Other Maps Available on Project Websites Submissions Observations Objections

54 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

55 CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs Objectives Technical, Social, Economic, Environmental / Cultural Framed in Terms of Risk Reduction Aspirational Targets / Basic Requirements Public Consultation: Objectives Weightings (Global)

56 CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs Objectives Screening Option Development Detailed Consideration of Climate Change Appraisal Scoring Options Vs Each Objective Weighted MCA Benefit Score Costed Unit Cost Database CBA (FHRC 2014 MCM)

57 CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs Objectives Screening Option Development - Detailed Appraisal SEA / Appropriate (Habitats) Assessment Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs)

58

59 CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs Objectives Screening Option Development - Detailed Appraisal SEA / Appropriate (Habitats) Assessment Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) Consultation Another 2 Rounds of PCDs (Appx. 400 Events) Formal SI Consultation

60 FRMPs FUTURE TIMELINE Option Assessments: PCDs: ONGOING Draft Options Reports: January March 2016 Draft Flood Risk Management Plans: Summer PCDs & Formal SI Consultation Final Flood Risk Management Plans: End-2016 National Prioritisation of Measures (MCA) Ministerial Approval Council Adoption

61 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE 2007 CFRAM PROGRAMME Click to add text FLOOD MAPS FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANs Prevention / Protection / Preparedness

62 PREVENTION PLANNING GUIDELINES OPW DoECLG Initiative Launched: November 2009 Framework For Sustainable Planning Sustainable Planning Critical for Sustainable FRM Avoids Creation of New Risks, Ever-Increasing Risk & Reduces Future Demands for Resources Lot of Work Required to Solve Existing Problems Let s Not Create New Ones! Flood Mapping (PFRA, CFRAM) & Web-Mapping Portal (in-hand)

63 PROTECTION MINOR WORKS: OPW funding of up to 500k to LAs 29m Approved for 430 Projects since 2009 Delivery of CFRAM Outcomes (< 0.5m) MAJOR SCHEMES: 34 Schemes Completed 8 Schemes In Construction & >20 Schemes In Design / Planning Schemes as Outcomes of CFRAM Programme Capital Programme: 250m > 1bn+

64 PREPAREDNESS (RESILIENCE) FLOOD WARNING Local Flood Warning Systems (Clonmel, Mallow, Fermoy) National Tidal & Storm Surge Forecasting Alert System Waterlevel.ie (real-time water level data) Radar-based Flood Forecasting

65 PREPAREDNESS (RESILIENCE) FLOOD WARNING National Flood Forecasting Centre? FLOOD EVENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE Guidance & Template Plans (MEM Framework)

66 PREPAREDNESS (RESILIENCE) FLOOD WARNING National Flood Forecasting Centre? FLOOD EVENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE Guidance & Template Plans (MEM Framework) AWARENESS, PREPAREDNESS & RESILIENCE 2005: National Plan, Prepare, Protect Campaign Bring down to Local Level with CFRAM Mapping

67 MULTI-FACETED OR HOLISTIC FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ARTERIAL DRAINAGE Ongoing Maintenance of Existing Schemes PREVENT Sustainable Planning and Development Management PROTECT Major & Minor Flood Relief Schemes PREPARE Effective Flood Forecasting & Warning Effective, Targeted Flood Event Response Plans Build Community Resilience

68 Flood Risk Management in Ireland The National CFRAM Programme & overview of the Capital Works Programme Click to add text Dr. John Martin Office of Public Works Engineers Ireland's Local Government Seminar Athlone, 18th February 2016