CLIMATE CHANGE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ( ) 2538_RP/002/E FRAM Section Office of Public Works

2 PROJECT Climate Change Adaptation Plan PROJECT No PROJECT ENGINEER: CLIENT: DOCUMENT TITLE: DOCUMENT No.: RD FRRM DIVISION OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ( ). 2538_RP/002/E REV. STATUS AUTHOR(S) REVIEWED BY APPROVED BY ISSUE DATE A Draft RD / MA MA B Draft RD / MA MA (For Issue as Informal Draft) (Issued for Final Review) 22/07/14 03/11/14 C Draft RD / MA MA TS 24/11/14 D Final Draft RD / MA MA TS May 2015 E Final RD / MA MA CMG November 2015

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Flood Risk Management Climate Change Adaptation Plan has been prepared under the remit of the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. It sets out the policy on climate change adaptation of the Office of Public Works (OPW), the lead agency for flood risk management in Ireland, based on a current understanding of the potential consequences of climate change for flooding and flood risk in Ireland, and the adaptation actions to be implemented by the OPW and other responsible Departments and agencies in the flood risk management sector. Background Adapting to climate change is a key challenge facing Governments and societies across the world. It is now clear that, even if the climate change mitigation measures undertaken to date are successful, climate change will not stop over the coming decades or possibly centuries. Adapting to its impacts is necessary to reduce vulnerability across all sectors of Society and the Natural Environment. Recognising this challenge, the Irish Government published the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework in December 2012, which sets out Government policy for addressing climate change adaptation in Ireland. It focuses on key climate sensitive sectors and mandates certain Government Departments, other public sector bodies and Local Authorities to prepare sectoral and local climate change adaptation plans. The OPW was assigned the task of preparing the Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Defence, or Flood Risk Management (FRM), sector. The scope of the Flood Risk Management Climate Change Adaptation Plan includes: A review of the existing science relating to the potential impacts of climate change on flooding. An outline of the potential increase in flood hazard and flood risk due to climate change, drawing on the work done under the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme, including information for other sectors. An overview of current areas of work in the flood risk management sector. A policy and actions for climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied by the OPW and other responsible Depts. / agencies in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. Detailed adaptation approaches and measures, to a specified programme, will be set out in the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) being developed under the CFRAM Programme. The Flood Risk Management Climate Change Adaptation Plan does not specify how other sectors should provide for potential climate-related changes in flood hazard and risk. It provides information on the potential change for consideration by those sectors. Flooding in Ireland Flooding, as defined in the EU 'Floods' Directive, is a temporary covering by water of land that is normally dry, and is a natural process that can happen at any time in a wide variety of locations. Flood hazard is the potential threat posed by flooding to people, property, the environment and our cultural heritage. The degree of hazard is dependent on a variety of factors that can vary from location to location and from one flood event to another. These factors include the extent and depth of flooding, the rate of flow or velocity over the floodplains, the rate of onset and the duration of the flood. 2538_RP/001/E Page i Date: - November 2015

4 Flooding can occur from a range of sources, including: Coastal flooding, from the sea and estuaries Fluvial flooding, from rivers, lakes and streams Pluvial flooding, where intense rainfall leads to overland flow and ponding Groundwater flooding, particularly from turloughs after prolonged wet periods Flooding from infrastructure, such as from reservoir breaches or blocked or surcharged piped networks Flooding only presents a risk when people, property, the environment and our cultural heritage can be potentially damaged by floods. Flood risk is dependent on the probability and magnitude of the flood hazard and the vulnerability of society, infrastructure and our environment to damage or loss in the event of a flood. Ireland has a long history of flooding, which has been identified by the Government Task Force on Emergency Planning in the National Risk Assessment developed by the Office of Emergency Planning (OEP) as one of the two most significant risks facing Ireland today (OEP, 2012). The National Historic Flood Event Database, publicly available through a website ( contains records of nearly 5,500 past flood events dating back to The floods of November 2009 would in many ways have been the most exceptional on record; both in scale and extent. The event was truly national, with many rivers across the country reaching record levels, including the River Shannon that substantially exceeded the highest levels previously recorded over a period of about 100 years. Cork City also suffered its first major river flood in the decades since the hydropower reservoirs were constructed on the River Lee upstream. The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) analysed the flood risk nationally to identify areas where the risk is potentially significant. These areas, referred to Areas for Further Assessment (AFAs), are the focus of the National CFRAM Programme, through which detailed flood maps are being prepared, and measures aimed at managing and reducing the flood risk will be developed, appraised and set out in a set of Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs). Flood Risk Management in Ireland Flood risk management in Ireland has developed over time from having an initial focus on the drainage of agricultural land, to providing localised flood relief schemes for urban areas, to taking a catchment-based and pro-active approach to assess and manage risks. This latter approach was established following adoption of the recommendations of the National Flood Policy Review (OPW, 2004) and was subsequently reinforced by the EU approach to flood risk management as set out in Directive 2007/60/EC (the EU 'Floods' Directive). The OPW, as the lead agency for flood risk management in Ireland, is responsible for coordinating the implementation of the National Flood Policy and the EU 'Floods' Directive. It is fulfilling many of these obligations through the National CFRAM Programme. The current areas of FRM activity in Ireland being undertaken by the OPW and other organisations include: Rural land drainage and flood protection, provided through the maintenance of Arterial Drainage Schemes, Drainage Districts and Land Commission Embankments Flood Protection, provided through Flood Relief Schemes and Minor Works, and the design and maintenance of urban storm water and other infrastructure 2538_RP/001/E Page ii Date: - November 2015

5 Flood Prevention, by way of sustainable planning and development Flood Preparedness, Response and Resilience, provided through public information campaigns, flood forecasting and warning, effective flood emergency response planning and building individual and community resilience Risk assessment and management planning, including the collection of hydrological and flood data, and the National PFRA and CFRAM Programmes Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Risk It is likely that climate change will have a considerable impact on flood risk in Ireland. Sea level rise is already being observed and is projected to continue to rise into the future, increasing risk to our coastal communities and assets, and threatening coastal squeeze of inter-tidal habitats where hard defences exist. It is projected that the number of heavy rainfall days per year may increase, which could lead to an increase in both fluvial and pluvial (urban storm water) flood risk, although there is considerable uncertainty associated with projections of short-duration, intense rainfall changes due to climate model scale and temporal and spatial down-scaling issues. The projected wetter winters, particularly in the West of the country, could give rise to increased groundwater flood risk associated with turloughs. These potential impacts could have serious consequences for Ireland, where all of the main cities are on the coast and many of the main towns are on large rivers. While there is considerable uncertainty associated with most aspects of the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk, it is prudent to take the potential for change into account in the development of FRM policies and strategies and the design of FRM measures. The National CFRAM Programme is central to the assessment of future flood risk and the planning of future FRM activity in Ireland, and was designed as the vehicle through which climate change adaptation policies would be implemented with respect to flood defence. It will hence be the cornerstone of climate change adaptation in the sector. This Programme includes the assessment of risk for two potential future scenarios; the Mid-Range Future Scenario (MRFS) and the High-End Future Scenario (HEFS). These scenarios include a sea level rise of 0.5m and 1.0m and an increase in peak flood flows of 20% and 30% for the MRFS and HEFS respectively. Preliminary assessments of potential future risk broadly indicate that flood risk will increase substantially in terms of the frequency of extreme events and the degree of risk nationally. The impacts are however highly variable between different areas, and vulnerability assessments will need to be undertaken on a community-by-community basis to determine locally-specific changes in risk and hence appropriate adaptation responses. Through the CFRAM Programme and future cycles of implementation of the EU 'Floods' Directive, the potential impacts of climate change and other socioeconomic changes will be assessed and reviewed on an ongoing basis. Adaptation Policies Guidance and information on adaptation to climate change is provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the European Union. This is supplemented nationally by the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (DoECLG, 2012) and research by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2538_RP/001/E Page iii Date: - November 2015

6 An appropriate adaptation approach needs to include: Assessments of future changes in hazard, vulnerability and risk Planning for adaptation, including the identification of adaptation policies and actions that should provide for flexible, 'no regrets' strategies and measures that can be adapted to ongoing change through a managed adaptive approach Implementation of adaptation measures, with adaptation embedded into mainstream programmes Monitoring, evaluating and updating adaptation plans Ensuring coordination in adaptation panning between sectors Sectoral Adaptation Requirements The OPW has adopted the following policy with respect to climate change adaptation: The possible impacts of climate change, and the associated uncertainty in projections, shall be considered at all stages of activity under the national Flood Risk Management Programme, and the development, design and implementation of all policies, strategies, plans and measures for, or related to, flood risk management must be sustainable and cognisant of the potential impacts of climate change. Under this policy, each flood risk management activity has been examined to determine what actions are required to embed and provide for effective adaptation with respect to flood risk. These include actions, which should be implemented by the OPW and/or other organisations as appropriate, in the following areas: research, hazard and vulnerability assessment, the design, implementation and maintenance of flood risk management measures, capacity building, monitoring and review, and, adaptation planning and governance The adaptation actions are set out in a tabular format in Section 7 of this Plan. Adaptation for Other Sectors with respect to Flood Risk Flooding is a cross-sectoral issue that can affect all aspects of life, and that can be influenced, positively or detrimentally, by actions in many other sectors. It is recommended that other sectors consider flood risk as part of their adaptation processes, making use of the information that has been and will be available from the OPW or via the 'Climate Ireland' Platform. Of particular importance is the consideration of potential future flooding environments in the area of planning and development management, and the planning and design of infrastructure. SEA and Natura Impact Screening This Plan has been screened with respect to the potential need for a Strategic Environmental Assessment and Appropriate Assessment. 2538_RP/001/E Page iv Date: - November 2015

7 The SEA screening process undertaken by the OPW was in accordance with the European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plan and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (S.I. No. 435 of 2004) and amending Regulations, (S.I 200 of 2011). The Appropriate Assessment Screening Report was produced in line with the requirements of Article 6(3) of the EU Habitats Directive (Directive 92/43/EEC). It has been concluded with respect to both, that assessments are not required. 2538_RP/001/E Page v Date: - November 2015

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9 GLOSSARY AA AEP AFA AR5 CFRAM COM DAFM DECLG EDM EFAS ESB EPA EU FRA FRM FRMP FSR FSU GSI HEFS ICPSS IFI IPCC JRC Appropriate Assessment Annual Exceedance Probability Area for Further Assessment Fifth Assessment Report (of the IPCC) Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management European Commission Department of Agriculture, Forestry and the Marine Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government Environmental Drainage Maintenance European Flood Awareness System Electricity Supply Board Environmental Protection Agency European Union Flood Risk Assessment Flood Risk Management Flood Risk Management Plan Flood Studies Report Flood Studies Update Geological Survey of Ireland High-End Future Scenario Irish Coastal Protection Strategy Study Inland Fisheries Ireland Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Commission Joint Research Centre 2538_RP/001/E Page vii Date: - November 2015

10 MRFS OEP OPW PFRA RBMP RCP SEA SI Mid-Range Future Scenario Office of Emergency Planning Office of Public Works Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment River Basin Management Plan Representative Concentration Pathway Strategic Environmental Assessment Statutory Instrument UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WFD Water Framework Directive 2538_RP/001/E Page viii Date: - November 2015

11 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAN SCOPE OF THE PLAN STRUCTURE OF THE PLAN FLOODING AND FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT FLOODING AND FLOOD RISK Types and Causes of Flooding Impacts of Flooding Assessing Flood Hazard Assessing Flood Risk EXISTING FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND Past Flood Events The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment The National Risk Assessment FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRELAND Land Commission Embankments Drainage Districts Arterial Drainage Schemes Hydrometric Monitoring Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes) Flood Risk Prevention Flood Risk Preparedness, Response and Resilience The National PFRA and CFRAM Programme Urban Storm-water Management Management of Flood Risk from Infrastructural Assets LINKS TO OTHER SECTORS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CLIMATIC PARAMETERS Temperature Precipitation Wind Speeds Sea Level Rise Storm Surges Wave Heights Sea Temperatures Weather Extremes Impacts UNCERTAINTY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD HAZARD AND RISK Potential Future Scenarios _RP/001/E Page ix Date: - November 2015

12 3.3.2 Flood Hazard Assessments Flood Risk Assessments Conclusions on Future Flood Hazards and Risks ADAPTATION POLICIES INTRODUCTION POLICY REVIEW International approach to Climate Change Adaptation EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change Irish Adaptation Policy RESEARCH REVIEW ON ADAPTATION FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT International Research Irish Research SECTORAL ADAPTATION REQUIREMENTS OBJECTIVES AND POLICY STATEMENT ADAPTATION FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES Land Commission Embankments Drainage Districts Arterial Drainage Schemes Hydrometric Monitoring Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes) Flood Risk Prevention Flood Risk Preparedness, Response and Resilience The National PFRA and CFRAM Programme Urban Storm-water Management Management of Flood Risk from Infrastructural Assets RESEARCH AND CAPACITY BUILDING Research Capacity Building MONITORING, REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF THE PLAN ADAPTATION FOR OTHER SECTORS WITH RESPECT TO FLOOD RISK SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN...63 References ANNEX I ANNEX II Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Screening Appropriate Assessment (AA) Screening 2538_RP/001/E Page x Date: - November 2015

13 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. OVERVIEW The Flood Risk Management Climate Change Adaptation Plan has been prepared under the remit of the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. It sets out the policy on climate change adaptation of the Office of Public Works (OPW), the lead agency for flood risk management in Ireland, based on a current understanding of the consequences of climate change for flooding, flood risk and flood risk management in Ireland, and the adaptation actions to be implemented by the OPW and other responsible Departments and agencies in the flood risk management sector BACKGROUND Adapting to climate change is a key challenge facing Governments and societies across the world. It is now clear that, even if the climate change mitigation measures undertaken to date are successful, climate change will not stop over the coming decades or possibly centuries. Adapting to its impacts is necessary to reduce vulnerability across all sectors of society and the natural environment. Recognising this challenge, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change in April 2013 (COM, 2013). Building on the 2009 White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for Action, the strategy focuses on three key objectives: Encouraging Member States to adopt climate change adaptation strategies. 'Climate-proofing' at EU level by promoting adaptation in climate sensitive sectors and by making Europe's infrastructure more resilient. Improving decision-making by addressing gaps in knowledge about adaptation and by continuing to develop Climate-ADAPT: the European climate adaptation platform (COM, 2013). The Irish Government has also responded, publishing the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework in December This document sets out Government policy for addressing climate change adaptation in Ireland. It focuses on key climate sensitive sectors and mandates that certain Government Departments, other public sector bodies and Local Authorities prepare sectoral and local climate change adaptation plans. The National Climate Change Adaptation Framework outlines that the Sectoral Adaptation Plans must include a clear understanding and description of the risks presented by climate change to each sector, their vulnerability to such risks and actions both to address the risks and ensure the climate resilience of the sectors (DECLG, 2012). In addition, the framework states that stakeholders must be given an opportunity to participate in the plan making process and that the plans should be revised every 5 years. The OPW was assigned the task of preparing the Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Defence, or Flood Risk Management as the sector is more commonly referred to. While there is considerable uncertainty associated with most aspects of the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk, it is prudent to take the potential for change into account in the development of flood risk management (FRM) policies and strategies and the design of FRM measures. Page 1 of 68

14 It is likely that climate change will have a considerable impact on flood risk in Ireland. Sea level rise is already being observed and is projected to continue to rise into the future, increasing risk to our coastal communities and assets, and threatening coastal squeeze of inter-tidal habitats where hard defences exist. It is projected that the number of heavy rainfall days per year may increase, which could lead to an increase in both fluvial and pluvial (urban storm water) flood risk, although there is considerable uncertainty associated with projections of short-duration, intense rainfall changes due to climate model scale and temporal and spatial down-scaling issues. The projected wetter winters, particularly in the west of the country, could give rise to increased groundwater flood risk associated with turloughs. These potential impacts could have serious consequences for Ireland, where all of the main cities are on the coast and many of the main towns are on large rivers. Flood risk management, in Ireland, has developed from having an initial focus on the drainage of agricultural land, to providing localised flood relief schemes for urban areas, to taking a catchment-based and pro-active approach to assess and manage risks. This later approach was established following adoption of the recommendations of the National Flood Policy Review and was subsequently reinforced by the EU approach to flood risk management as set out in Directive 2007/60/EC (the EU 'Floods' Directive). The OPW, as the lead agency for flood risk management in Ireland, is responsible for coordinating and, with respect to many aspects, implementing the National Flood Policy and the EU 'Floods' Directive. It is fulfilling many of these obligations through the National Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme. The CFRAM Programme is central to the planning of future FRM activity in Ireland, and was designed as the vehicle through which climate change adaptation policies would be implemented with respect to flood defence. It will hence be the cornerstone of climate change adaptation in the flood risk management sector METHODOLOGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAN The Flood Risk Management Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan has been developed in line with international and national guidance on adaptation planning, including the EC Guidelines on adaptation (COM, 2013), as set out in Section 4.. This is the first Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management for Ireland. It has been based on the information available at the time of writing, and it is recognised that more information (in terms of geographical scope, sources of flooding and community vulnerabilities in particular) will enable refinement and enhancement of the Plan. The Plan, and adaptation and adaptive capacity in the sector, will hence develop through future iterations and over time, informed by further research and assessments, such as future cycles of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment and the National CFRAM Programme (see Sections and 5.2.8) SCOPE OF THE PLAN The scope of the Flood Risk Management Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan includes: A review of the existing science relating to the potential impacts of climate change on flooding; Page 2 of 68

15 An outline of the potential increase in flood hazard and flood risk due to climate change, drawing on the work done under the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme, including information for other sectors; An overview of current areas of work in the flood risk management sector, and Policies and actions for climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied in the development of FRM strategies and measures. The Plan is high-level and sets a policy and framework along with further actions for research, assessment, and does not specify particular physical interventions. Detailed adaptation approaches and potential measures, to a specified, prioritised programme, will be set out in the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) developed under the CFRAM Programme. The Flood Risk Management Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan does not specify how other sectors should provide for potential climate-related changes in flood hazard and risk. It provides information on the potential change for consideration by those sectors, and on activity in the flood risk management sector. The Plan has been screened with respect to the potential need for a Strategic Environmental Assessment and Natura Impact Appropriate Assessment. The SEA screening process undertaken by the OPW was in accordance with the European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plan and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (S.I. No. 435 of 2004) and amending Regulations, (S.I 200 of 2011). The Appropriate Assessment Screening Report was produced in line with the requirements of Article 6(3) of the EU Habitats Directive (Directive 92/43/EEC) STRUCTURE OF THE PLAN The Plan structure is set out below. Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 ANNEX I ANNEX II Outlines the existing flood risk in Ireland and discusses current flood risk management practices. Summarises key International and Irish science-based studies on climate change and associated uncertainty, and contains a summary of national assessments, and local, detailed examples. Provides a review of international and national climate change adaptation policies. Describes how climate change adaptation should be embedded into flood risk management practices in Ireland Describes how other sectors might take a changing flood environment into account in adaptation planning Sets out the Flood Risk Management Sectoral Adaptation Plan by way of a table of actions Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Screening Appropriate Assessment (AA) Screening Page 3 of 68

16 2. FLOODING AND FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT This Section of the Plan provides an introduction to flooding and flood risk, gives an overview of existing flood risk in Ireland, and then sets out what is currently being done in Ireland to assess and manage flood hazard and risk FLOODING AND FLOOD RISK Flooding is a temporary covering by water of land that is normally dry, and is a natural process that can happen at any time in a wide variety of locations. Flood hazard is the potential threat posed by flooding to people, property, the environment and our cultural heritage. The degree of hazard is dependent on a variety of factors that can vary from location to location and from one flood event to another. These factors include the extent and depth of flooding, the rate of flow or velocity over the floodplains, the rate of onset and the duration of the flood. Flooding only presents a risk however when people, property, the environment and our cultural heritage can be potentially damaged by floods. Flood risk is dependent on the probability and magnitude of the flood hazard and the vulnerability of society, infrastructure and our environment to damage or loss in the event of a flood Types and Causes of Flooding Flooding can occur from a range of sources, individually or in combination, as described below. Coastal Flooding Coastal flooding occurs when sea levels along the coast or in estuaries exceed neighbouring land levels, or overcome coastal defences where these exist, or when waves overtop over the coast. The primary drivers of coastal flooding that can be affected by climate change are: Mean Sea Level, and astronomical tidal variations in level; Storm frequency and intensity, which can create surge and extreme wave events that can further raise sea levels; and Wind speed and direction, which can create or exacerbate surge events, force water into estuaries and harbours, cause seiche effects, and create extreme wave conditions, such as those seen in the storm events in the winter of Recent coastal events include the east coast flooding on 1st February 2002, when an extreme surge caused approximately 60m of damage in Dublin, and in February 2014 when parts of Limerick and Cork cities flooded from extreme surge events. Coastal flooding can also occur in the form of tsunami, such as the devastating events that occurred in Japan in March 2011 and around the Eastern Indian Ocean in December Tsunami can be caused by oceanic volcanic activity, earthquakes or landslips. While tsunami might not be an obvious threat to Ireland, the tsunami that devastated Lisbon, Portugal in 1755 also hit the south coast of Ireland according to records of that time and there are reports of tsunami-like flood events around the South coast from 1761 and 1854 (Pers comm., GSI). Indicative assessments (HR Wallingford, June 2006) have concluded that further geological activity in the area of the Canary Islands or a major slip along the continental shelf could cause tsunami that would affect Irish coasts. Further assessment is to be undertaken on tsunami as part of the second cycle Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) to define this risk more accurately. Page 4 of 68

17 Fluvial Flooding Fluvial flooding occurs when rivers and streams break their banks and water flows out onto the adjacent low-lying areas (the natural floodplains). This can arise where the runoff from heavy rain exceeds the natural capacity of the river channel, and can be exacerbated where a channel is blocked or constrained or, in estuarine areas, where high tide levels impede the flow of the river out into the sea. Different rivers will respond differently to rainfall events, depending on a range of factors such as the size and slope of the catchment, the permeability of the soil and underlying rock, the degree of urbanisation of the catchment and the degree to which flood waters can be stored and attenuated in lakes and along the river's floodplains. A storm of a given rainfall depth and duration may cause flooding in one river, but not in another, and some catchments may be more prone than others to prolonged rainfall or a series of rain events. River flooding can occur rapidly in short, steep rivers or after some time, and some distance from where the rain fell, in larger or more gently flowing rivers. Changes in rainfall patterns, such as might be caused by climate change, will have different impacts on flood magnitudes and frequency in different catchments. There have been a large number of fluvial flood events in recent years in Ireland; most notably in November 2009 when record levels were seen in many of the rivers around the country. Pluvial Flooding Pluvial flooding occurs when the amount of rainfall exceeds the capacity of urban storm water drainage systems or the infiltration capacity of the ground to absorb it. This excess water flows overland, ponding in natural or man-made hollows and lowlying areas or behind obstructions. This occurs as a rapid response to intense rainfall before the flood waters eventually enter a piped or natural drainage system. This type of flooding is driven in particular by short, intense rain storms, such as that which occurred over the Dublin area in October Groundwater Flooding Groundwater flooding occurs when the level of water stored in the ground rises as a result of prolonged rainfall, to meet the ground surface and flows out over it, i.e. when the capacity of this underground reservoir is exceeded. Groundwater flooding tends to be very local and results from the interaction of site-specific factors such as local geology and tidal variations. While water level may rise slowly, it may be in place for extended periods of time. Hence, such flooding may often result in significant damage to property or disruption to transport.. In Ireland, groundwater flooding is most commonly related to turloughs in the karstic limestone areas prevalent in particular in the west of Ireland. Extensive groundwater flooding occurred around South Galway and areas of Mayo, Roscommon and neighbouring counties in 1995 and November 2009; due on both occasions to extended periods of heavy rain. Other Causes of Flooding The above causes of flooding are all natural; caused by either extreme sea levels or heavy or intense rainfall. Floods can also be caused by the failure or exceedance of capacity of built or man-made infrastructure, such as bridge collapses, from blocked or under-sized drainage systems or other piped networks, or the failure or overtopping of reservoirs or other water-retaining embankments (such as raised canals). Page 5 of 68

18 2.1.2 Impacts of Flooding Impacts on people and communities Flooding can cause physical injury, illness and loss of life. Deep, fast flowing or rapidly rising flood waters can be particularly dangerous. For example, even shallow water flowing at 2 metres per second (m/sec) can knock children and many adults off their feet, and vehicles can be moved by flowing water of only 300mm depth. The risks increase if the floodwater is carrying debris. Some of these impacts may be immediate, the most significant being drowning or physical injury due to being swept away by floods. Floodwater contaminated by sewage or other pollutants (e.g. chemicals stored in garages or commercial properties) is also likely to cause illnesses, either directly as a result of contact with the polluted floodwater or indirectly, as a result of sediments left behind. Those most likely to be at risk are people living in a single-storey bungalow or below ground in a basement, those outdoors on foot or in a vehicle, or people staying in a tent or caravan. As well as the immediate dangers, the impact on people and communities as a result of the stress and trauma of being flooded, or even of being under the threat of flooding, can be immense. Long-term impacts can arise due to chronic illnesses and the stress associated with being flooded and the lengthy recovery process. The ability of people to respond and recover from a flood can vary. Vulnerable people, such as the elderly, people with a disability or those who have a long-term illness, are less able to cope with floods than others. Some people may have difficulty in replacing household items damaged in a flood and may lack the financial means to recover and maintain acceptable living conditions after a flood. Floods can cause impacts on communities as well as individuals through the temporary, but sometimes prolonged, loss of community services or infrastructure, such as schools, health services, community centres or amenity assets. Impacts on property Flooding can cause severe damage to properties, including homes and businesses. Floodwater is likely to damage internal finishes, contents and electrical and other services and possibly cause structural damage. The physical effects can have severe long-term impacts, with re-occupation sometimes not being possible for over a year. The costs of flooding are increasing, partly due to increasing amounts of electrical and other equipment within developments. The degree of damage generally increases with the depth of flooding, and sea-water flooding may cause additional damage due to corrosion. Flooding can also be detrimental to farming; causing water-logging of land and damaging crops. Impacts on Infrastructure The damage flooding can cause to businesses and infrastructure, such as transport or utilities like electricity, gas and water supply, can have significant detrimental impacts on individuals and businesses and also local and regional economies. Flooding of primary roads or railways can deny access to large areas beyond those directly affected by the flooding for the duration of the flood event, as well as causing damage to the road or railway itself. Flooding of water distribution infrastructure such as pumping stations or of electricity sub-stations can result in loss of water or power supply over large areas. This can magnify the impact of flooding well beyond the immediate community. The long-term closure of businesses, for example, can lead to job losses and other economic impacts. Page 6 of 68

19 Impacts on the Environment Detrimental environmental effects of flooding can include soil and bank erosion, bed erosion or siltation, land slides and damage to vegetation as well as the impacts on water quality, habitats and flora and fauna caused by pollutants carried by flood water. Flooding can however play a beneficial role in natural habitats. Many wetland habitats are dependent on annual flooding for their sustainability and can contribute to the storage of flood waters to reduce flood risk elsewhere. Impacts on our Cultural Heritage In the same way as flooding can damage properties, flood events can damage or destroy assets or sites of cultural heritage value. Particularly vulnerable are monuments, structures or assets (including building contents) made of wood or other soft materials, such as works of art and old paper-based items such as archive records, manuscripts or books. Soil erosion during flood events could also destroy buried heritage and archaeological sites Assessing Flood Hazard A flood hazard assessment is the identification, quantification and communication of the potential hazards due to flooding for a given location or area. It seeks to identify the potential extents of flooding and areas subject to particular hazards, such as deep or fast-flowing water, for given flood event magnitudes, and to assess the likelihood of such flood events occurring both now and in the future. Flood hazard assessments can be undertaken at a range of scales, including national, regional, local and site-specific. They can also be undertaken to varying degrees of detail, from highly-detailed assessments that will typically involve survey work and modelling, to indicative assessments based on anecdotal, surrogate or historic information or simple analysis. The scale and level of detail of assessment will depend on why the assessment is being undertaken, and what scope and degree of confidence is required in the outputs. For a detailed flood hazard assessment, a computer-based model is typically developed that attempts to replicate and simulate how the natural river or coastline and its floodplains will behave and convey water during high flows or extreme sea levels. For river systems, this requires a hydrological analysis to determine what flood flows might be expected to occur for a given probability or frequency of occurrence. For example, this might be for a flood that has a 1 in a 100 or 1% chance of being equalled or exceeded in any given year (referred to as the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood), or, expressed in another way, a flood that might occur, on average and over a long period of time, once every hundred years (the 100-year flood). Such models, although complex, are still only representations of very complex natural systems, and all flood estimates and hazard assessments carry a degree of inherent uncertainty. This uncertainty can be reduced where the models can be calibrated against real, past flood events. Indicative methods can provide quick, low-cost assessments of flood hazard. They are generally however, by their very nature, much less reliable, or more uncertain, than detailed, model-based assessments. The outputs of a flood hazard assessment will generally include flood maps. These can show a range of the factors that contribute to flood hazard but most commonly indicate flood extents and flood depth for past flood events (historic flood maps) or for events of a given probability of occurrence (predictive flood maps). Page 7 of 68

20 2.1.4 Assessing Flood Risk As noted in the introduction to Section 2.1, flood risk is a function of the degree of flood hazard (taking account of probability and magnitude) and the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure and our environment to damage or loss in the event of a flood. The degree of flood hazard is assessed through a flood hazard assessment as outlined above. The risk can then be assessed by examining what could be affected by the flood, and what damage could arise were a flood to occur. Section outlines the type of impacts a flood can have. These can be assessed, depending on the type of potential impact, in various ways: in monetary terms, such as an annual average damage expressed as /year; in non-monetary but quantitative terms, such as by means of a flood risk indicator or a count (e.g., number of properties flooded per event or average number of properties flooded per year); or, in qualitative terms, such as by way of a description of the expected damages, losses or impacts. As per a flood hazard assessment, a flood risk assessment can be undertaken at a range of scales from national down to site-specific, and in a detailed or indicative way. The outputs of a flood risk assessment will be information explaining the potential losses or damages that could arise due to flooding EXISTING FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND Ireland is affected by a range of types of flooding as set out in Section The most significant types of flooding nationally in terms of both hazard and risk are fluvial and coastal flooding. Groundwater flooding is a significant source of flood hazard in the west of the country, where prolonged flooding can occur from turloughs. Pluvial flooding has also occurred and caused substantial damage in some instances, particularly in Dublin in recent years. Minor flooding, and occasionally more severe events, have also occurred from other sources. Set out below is an overview of some of the notable flood events that have happened in the past, and of the outcomes of the National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment Past Flood Events In October 2006, the OPW launched the National Historic Flood Event Database, and made this publicly available through a website ( This has been maintained since its launch and is updated as flood events have occurred. The database now contains information on nearly 5,500 past flood events, dating back as far as 1763 (a flood in Kilkenny from the River Nore), and provides access to supplementary information on the floods such as photographs and reports, where available. Some of the most notable or damaging past floods to have affected Ireland are outlined in Table 2.1 below. The floods of November 2009 would in many ways have been the most exceptional on record; both in scale and extent. The event was truly national, with many rivers across the country reaching record levels, including the River Shannon that significantly exceeded the highest levels previously recorded over a period of about 100 years. Cork city also suffered its first major river flood in the decades since the hydropower reservoirs were constructed. Page 8 of 68

21 Table 2.1: Notable or Significant Past Floods in Ireland Date Location Type Impacts Nov 1931 Kilkenny Fluvial 100 properties flooded March 1947 River Nore Fluvial 350 properties flooded in Kilkenny and Thomastown 1954 Rivers Shannon & Tolka Fluvial Record levels on the Shannon prior to Nov 2009 Nov 1965 River Slaney Fluvial Extensive flooding in Tullow (60 properties) and Enniscorthy Nov 1980 South West Fluvial Flooding in Mallow, Fermoy and Kanturk (178 properties flooded) Aug 1986 National Fluvial 'Hurricane Charlie' - Extreme events in South Dublin (over 450 properties flooded) and Wicklow (e.g., Dodder & Dargle Rivers) Jan 1995 Kilkenny Fluvial 70 properties flooded Jan 1996 Clonmel Fluvial 250 properties flooded Winter 1995 West Groundwater Extensive flooding over prolonged periods. Affected South Galway in particular Nov 2000 National Fluvial Extensive flooding in South East (over 500 properties flooded in Carrrick-on-Suir, Carlow, Clonmel and Tullow) and around Dublin (over 250 properties flooded) Feb 2002 East Coast Coastal 60m damage & at least 1250 properties flooded in Dublin - Flooding up to first floor level in Ringsend - 30 properties flooded in Mornington Nov 2002 River Tolka Fluvial Repeat event after Nov 2000 along the Tolka, but more severe Nov 2009 National Fluvial, Groundwater Oct 2011 Dublin area Fluvial, Pluvial June 2012 South-West Fluvial, Pluvial Feb 2014 South & West Coast Coastal (Incl. Wave Action) >1,600 properties flooded nationally, with over 700 in Cork City - Approx. 250m insured losses - Many rivers hit record levels - Extensive groundwater flooding in West 2 fatalities - Nearly 1,700 properties flooded - Appx. 130m insured damages Intense storm events - Over 170 properties flooded in Clonakilty Flooding of properties in Limerick and Cork City Centre - Extensive coastal storm damage around South and West Coasts Page 9 of 68

22 Many of the floods listed above occurred in recent years. While this bias is to some degree due to improved record-keeping and data availability, it would also be due to the recent spate of severe floods in terms of impact. This, in turn, is in part due to a wet period in terms of the number of floods, but would also in some part be due to the increased number of homes and other assets located in flood-prone areas. Flood hazard and risk assessments can make use of past floods, but the quality of such assessments is dependent on the occurrence of past floods and how well data on those events has been captured and recorded. Forward looking, or 'predictive', assessments are based on analysis or modelling as described in Sections and above The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment The Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) is a requirement of the EU Floods Directive, aimed at identifying areas where there may be a significant risk associated with flooding (referred to as Areas for Further Assessment, or AFAs ). The PFRA is a preliminary step for the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme, as it is the AFAs that are the focus of the CFRAM Programme, i.e., where detailed flood maps will be produced, and are the areas for which flood risk management measures will be assessed and, where viable, prioritised for development to reduce and manage the risk. The PFRA is a national screening exercise, based on available and readily-derivable information. In Ireland the PFRA was undertaken during 2010 and 2011, and involved: Reviewing records of floods that have happened in the past (the historic assessment); Undertaking analysis to determine which areas might flood in the future, and what the impacts might be (the 'predictive' assessment); and, Consulting with the Local Authorities, Government Departments, other public agencies and members of the public. The assessment has considered all types of flooding, including natural sources, such as from rivers, the sea and estuaries, heavy rain and groundwater, and also from man-made sources, such as the failure of built infrastructure. It has included the impacts flooding can have on people, property, businesses, the environment and cultural heritage. The PFRA has identified 300 Areas for Further Assessment (AFAs). A list of the AFAs, a more detailed description of the PFRA and all associated reports may be found at the PFRA Section of the National CFRAM Website ( The PFRA is due to be reviewed by the end of 2018 and then on a six-yearly cycle thereafter (in accordance with the 'Floods' Directive). The predictive element of the National PFRA provides us with national, indicative flood maps for coastal, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. While these are not necessarily locally accurate, they do provide an indication of areas that may be prone to flooding. Further information on the development of these maps, as well as the maps themselves, are available from the National CFRAM Programme website. The flood maps, although indicative, do allow some analysis to derive information on the level and distribution of flood risk nationally. Page 10 of 68

23 Flood Risk Index For the purposes of the National PFRA, a system was developed for calculating a numeric, but non-monetarised indicator to reflect the degree of flood risk. This represents the potential impacts of flooding to a wide range of receptors including infrastructure, utilities and social assets, as well as business and residential properties. The method of calculation of the Flood Risk Index (FRI) is described in a technical report (Mott MacDonald, 2011) and outlined in the Main PFRA Overview Report (OPW, 2011). The outcomes of the FRI analysis are also available in Appendix E of the Main PFRA Overview Report in terms of the FRI score for communities around the country. The National 'CFRAM' Programme The National CFRAM Programme is underway, and involves the detailed assessment of flood hazard and risk in the Areas for Further Assessment defined under the National PFRA. For each AFA, this Programme will produce detailed flood maps and risk information. The Programme is described in more detail in Section below The National Risk Assessment The National Risk Assessment has been completed by the Office of Emergency Planning (OEP, 2012), which assesses a range of natural and man-made risks and their significance for Ireland. This assessment identified flooding as one of the two most significant risks facing Ireland today, with both likelihood and impact being given a rating of 4 out of 5 ('likely' and 'high impact'). Many other Member States of the European Union have also undertaken similar national risk assessments and flooding has consistently featured as a major risk, with 17 of the 18 risk assessments identifying flooding as a national risk. The EU summary of these assessments (COM, 2014) notes that half of the national assessments "underline floods as a particularly high level risk hazard". Ireland is hence not unique in facing severe flood problems. The indications are that the potential impacts of climate change will make this problem considerably worse, as set out in Section 3 herein FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRELAND Flood risk management as a specific focus is a relatively new area of work in Ireland, with the 1995 Arterial Drainage Amendment Act permitting the OPW to develop and implement local flood relief schemes. Prior to this, activity on managing excess water quantity was aimed primarily at agricultural land protection and drainage to improve agricultural production, initially through the construction of the land commission embankments and then the implementation of Drainage Districts and Arterial Drainage Schemes under various Arterial Drainage Acts. Following a series of severe floods, a review of the national flood policy was undertaken by an inter-departmental group chaired by the OPW, which produced a Report that was approved and adopted by Government in September 2004 (OPW, 2004). This decision set the national policy that is applicable today, and that is in line with the requirements of the EU 'Floods' Directive (2007/60/EC) that came into force in November 2007 and transposed into Irish law by SI No. 122 of Past and current activities related to drainage and flood risk management are outlined below, with reference to the above policy initiatives and legislation, to provide an overview of the context and current flood risk management work in Ireland. Page 11 of 68

24 2.3.1 Land Commission Embankments The Land Commission was created in 1881 as a rent fixing commission by the Land Law (Ireland) Act 1881, and was reconstituted in the Irish Free State by section 2 of the Land Law (Commission) Act, 1923, backdated to the state's creation. With very few exceptions, lands acquired through the Land Commission are now in private ownserhip. Trusts were established in some cases for the maintenance of flood defences on acquired lands. The Commission was dissolved on 31 March 1999 by the Irish Land Commission (Dissolution) Act, 1992 and the trusts held by the Land Commission were transferred to the Dept. of Agriculture and Food (now the Dept. of Agriculture, Food and the Marine - DAFM), with retained funds entrusted to the Public Trustee, who is an officer of the DAFM. While the Public Trustee administers these funds that may be used for repairs of the embankments, this is applied only in very exceptional circumstances, as the amount of such funds is generally small and wholly inadequate to maintain the various embankments. The DAFM does not however have a general responsibility for the maintenance, repair or restoration of the embankments. Some of these embankments are lower than the more extreme, but still relatively common, spring tides and are subject to fairly frequent failure when loaded by such tides Drainage Districts Drainage Districts are areas where drainage schemes to improve land for agricultural purposes were constructed under the Arterial Drainage Acts from 1842 up to When a subsequent scheme covered the same ground as one of the earlier schemes, the previous District was abolished. Of the 293 schemes carried out, 170 remain covering 4,600km of channel. The location and extent of the Drainage Districts are shown in Figure 2.1. The statutory duty of maintenance for these schemes rests with the Local Authorities concerned, and is subject to regular reporting to the OPW. The standard of this maintenance varies widely Arterial Drainage Schemes Following the passing of the Arterial Drainage Act, 1945, the OPW began investigations to determine where Arterial Drainage Schemes would be expedient and economically viable. The implementation of the Schemes began in the late- 1940s and continued into the early-1990s when the last major schemes in the Boyle, Bonet and Monaghan Blackwater catchments were completed. A total of 11,500km of river channel form part of the Arterial Drainages Schemes, that also include 800km of embankments. The location and dates of the Schemes undertaken throughout the country is provided in Table 2.2, and the location and extent of the Schemes are shown in Figure 2.1. The purpose of the Arterial Drainage Schemes was primarily to improve the drainage of agricultural lands to enhance production. This typically involved lowering or widening river beds to facilitate the drainage and discharge of neighbouring lands and drainage channels. While not the primary purpose of the Schemes, they did also provide enhanced conveyance capacity where they passed through towns, villages and dispersed rural communities that in turn has reduced the flood risk to properties in these areas. Page 12 of 68

25 Table 2.2: Completed Major Arterial Drainage Schemes Scheme Counties Duration of Works Benefitting Area (Acres) Brosna Offaly, Westmeath, Laois ,200 Glyde & Dee Louth, Meath, Monaghan, Cavan ,300 Feale Kerry ,500 Corrib-Clare Galway, Mayo, Roscommon ,900 Owenogarney 1 Clare ,100 Nenagh Tipperary, Offaly ,500 Deel & Swillyburn Donegal ,500 Shannon 1 Clare ,800 Ballyteigue / Kilmore Wexford ,300 Maine Kerry ,600 Fergus 1 Clare ,400 Inny Westmeath, Longford, Meath, ,000 Cavan Moy Mayo, Sligo, Roscommon ,000 Broadmeadow & Meath, Dublin ,400 Ward Swilly, etc. 1 Donegal ,200 Killimor / Cappagh Galway ,600 Deel Limerick, Cork ,900 Shannon 1 Limerick ,100 Duff Leitrim, Sligo ,600 Corrib-Headford Galway, Mayo ,400 Owenavarragh Wexford ,600 Carrigahorrig Tipperary, Offaly ,800 Boyne Meath, Westmeath, Louth, Cavan, ,000 Kildare, Offaly Groody Limerick ,000 Maigue Limerick, Tipperary, Cork ,500 Corrib-Mask-Robe Mayo, Galway ,000 Boyle Roscommon, Sligo, Mayo ,800 Bonet Leitrim, Sligo ,200 Monaghan Monaghan ,850 Blackwater TOTAL 647,050 Note 1: Estuarine Embankment Scheme Page 13 of 68

26 Figure 2.1: Arterial Drainage Schemes and Drainage Districts While new Arterial Drainage Schemes are no longer being undertaken, the OPW has a statutory duty to maintain the completed Schemes in proper repair and in an effective condition. The annual maintenance programme is prepared by the OPW, and typically involves some clearance of vegetation and removal of silt build-up on a five-yearly cycle. Page 14 of 68

27 To minimise potential ecological impacts, the OPW undertakes these statutory maintenance works in accordance with a series of Environmental Management Protocols and Standard Operating Procedures, which are published on the OPW website. Over the years, significant environmental improvements have been achieved with Inland Fisheries Ireland (IFI) whom, in conjunction with the OPW, developed the Environmental Drainage Maintenance (EDM) programme, which is central to the guidance for environmentally friendly channel maintenance operations. A suite of environmental activities are conducted on an ongoing basis, to further devise best practise such as: research and associated publications, scientific monitoring, stakeholder consultations, ecological surveys, environmental assessments, staff training and site audits. In latter years, this approach has further evolved and now strives to enhance the ecological value of the drainage channel through the Environmental River Enhancement Programme where OPW, with assistance from IFI, enhance drained channels to maximise the river corridor ecological quality whilst retaining the flood relief and drainage capacity. A review of the ongoing benefit of the maintenance relative to the cost was completed in 1999 (PWC, 1999), which found that the Arterial Drainage Maintenance Programme had a benefit-cost ratio of 13.6 to 1 (i.e., each euro spent provides 13.6 benefit) Hydrometric Monitoring The two main public bodies involved with surface water monitoring in Ireland are: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) jointly with Local Authorities, which have responsibilities and a network oriented towards measurement of medium and low flows for water quality and resource management purposes; and, The OPW, which captures data for flood risk management purposes. The OPW has collected hydrometric data (water levels and river flows) since the midnineteenth century for arterial drainage and flood relief works. Data collection began more systematically on a catchment-wide basis from There has been a substantial expansion of the OPW hydrometric network in the last 20 years, from 302 in 1995 to 453 in Other major bodies involved in monitoring include the ESB, Waterways Ireland and the Marine Institute. The National Hydrometric Working Group, co-chaired by the OPW and the EPA, was established in 2013 to improve the overall monitoring, processing, availability and use of good quality hydrometric data. The overall aim is to provide a forum and foster greater cooperation among the various bodies responsible for, or directly involved in, hydrometric activities in Ireland. Hydrometric monitoring has an important role to play in flood risk management. Long-term records of flows, particularly high- and flood-flows, are essential in the determination of design flood flows (e.g., the flow that has a 1% probability of occurring or being exceeded in any given year, or, in other terminology, the 100-year flow) and to determine flows for past events. Records of flood levels are also important to permit observation of flood events for calibration of flood models. Longterm hydrometric records can also assist in the detection of changes in flow regimes or mean sea level, such as might be due to climate change. Many monitoring stations are now equipped with telemetry such that near real-time and real-time water level data can be captured centrally and/or published directly to websites for public use (see, for example, Page 15 of 68

28 Since 1975 flood estimation in Ireland has generally been undertaken using the methodologies and data provided in the Flood Studies Report (FSR), and from analysis based on the various national hydrometric databases. The Flood Studies Update, available from the FSU Web Portal ( recently launched by the OPW, is a substantial update of the FSR based on a major research programme and the substantially greater hydrometric database than that available for the FSR. Ongoing hydrometric monitoring is critical for ensuring robust estimation of flood flows and for monitoring changes in the hydrological regime that might be caused by land use change, urbanisation and climate change Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes) The amendment to the Arterial Drainage Act passed in 1995 provided the OPW with the powers to implement flood relief schemes to provide flood protection to local communities, as opposed to catchment-wide schemes aimed at improving agricultural production. Flood relief schemes can provide protection by a range of means, such as: Storing floodwater upstream; Preventing high coastal or river levels from spilling into the community using walls or embankments; Allowing more water to pass through a community by increasing the capacity of the river channel; and Diverting flood flows around or away from a community. Since 1995, 36 major schemes have been completed by the end of 2015, with a further 36 currently at various stages of design, approval or construction. The completed major schemes have cost a total of 348m, provide protection to over 7,000 properties and provide an overall benefit of approximately 1.1bn. A list of some of the major schemes completed at the end of 2014 is provided in Table 2.3. Many of these schemes have been tested by flood events and have prevented properties from flooding, such as in Mallow in November 2009 and again in January 2010, in Dublin in January 2014 from a coastal surge event that was higher than February 2002 and in Clonmel in February As with the Arterial Drainage Schemes, the OPW has a statutory duty to maintain these flood relief schemes. Some major flood relief schemes have been implemented under local authority powers, including the River Tolka Scheme and the River Dodder works. This route is taken where the local authority powers are deemed to be more suitable, but funding and/or technical advice is generally provided by the OPW in the preparation and implementation of such schemes. In 2009, the OPW launched the Minor Works Scheme whereby the OPW may allocate to a Local Authority up to 500k to implement local solutions for local flood problems. This Scheme has proven to be very successful with approval given to 33m of funding for over 500 Minor Works projects by late Page 16 of 68

29 Table 2.3: Major Flood Relief Schemes Completed by End of 2014 Scheme Scheme Cost ( 000's) Properties Protected Gort Town Sixmilebridge Morrell Lyreen Meadowbrook Clancy Strand Harry's Mall Duleek 2, Ballymakeogh 4, Cappamore 8, Dunmanway 1, Hazelhatch 1, Carrick-on-Suir 6, Kilkenny 45, River Tolka Dublin 19,400 1,574 Leixlip 3, Newcastlewest New Ross Spencer Dock 3, ,200 Mallow 36, Ennis Upper 13, Waterford Phase 1 9, Carlow 9, Fermoy North 9, Clonmel 43, Mornington 4, Johnstown 3, Tullamore 1, Clanmoyle 4, Flood Risk Prevention The National Flood Policy Review of 2004 identified flood risk prevention (i.e., the avoidance of creating new flood risks) as an area needing further development in Ireland. At the core of 'prevention' as a flood risk management strategy is sustainable development. Shortly after the adoption of the Policy Review, the OPW and the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government (DECLG) began developing guidelines to assist planners in taking flooding into consideration in planning and development management. The guidelines were published for consultation in 2008, and then adopted and published under Section 28 of the Planning Act in November 2009 (DECLG/OPW, 2009). 1 OPW scheme costs only Page 17 of 68

30 These Guidelines provide a clear framework for sustainable planning taking a riskbased approach whereby flood-sensitive development should avoid flood-prone areas, based on classifications of land-use vulnerability and flood zones. On an exceptional basis, town centre development in flood prone areas may be appropriate (subject to a justification test), providing the risk is managed. The guidelines have been in effect, at the time of publication, for about six years, and are gaining wide-spread application. The successful and effective implementation of the guidelines is critical for the sustainable management of flood risk in Ireland in the long-term. While there are existing flood risk areas that require some action, it is within our control to avoid creating new risks that would otherwise cause loss and trauma in the future, along with ever-increasing demands on limited resources for further flood protection Flood Risk Preparedness, Response and Resilience Flood risk preparedness, response and resilience is a further area of work that was identified for development by the National Flood Risk Policy Review. This approach seeks to manage and reduce flood risks when and where flood events may occur, rather than trying to prevent flooding from occurring through flood protection. This approach involves what are often referred to as 'non-structural' measures and can include: Increasing the awareness and preparedness of the public, businesses, farmers and other stakeholders so that they know what to do prior to, during and after flood events to reduce the damages that can be caused by floods; Providing flood warning so that the public and response authorities can prepare for and respond to flood events; and Ensuring effective flood event response planning by the emergency response authorities, so that the response is effective and timely to reduce impacts on people and property. Overall, this type of measure enhances the resilience of communities to flood events such that they are better prepared for, and can recover more quickly from, floods. Much work has been done since 2004 to enhance the application of this approach in Ireland, including: Launch of the 'Plan, Prepare, Protect' initiative early in 2006 ( to provide practical advice to the public on how to prepare for potential flooding (revision issued in 2014); Launch in October 2006 of the national past flood event database ( to promote awareness of flooding; Preparation of guidelines and templates for flood event emergency response plans in 2008 by the OPW and Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government (now DECLG) under the Framework for Major Emergency Management (revision issued in 2013); Initiation of testing in 2009 of the national Tide and Storm Surge Forecasting Service by the OPW, which now provides Local Authorities with two to three days advance warning of impending coastal surge events; Ireland joined the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) partner network in 2010, and the OPW is the formal national point of contact for accessing the EFAS services and receiving flood alerts issued where a high probability for flooding is forecast; and Page 18 of 68

31 Undertaking a strategic review of options for flood forecasting and flood warning in Ireland (Final Report 2011), that recommends the establishment of a national flood forecasting and warning service. There is further work to be done in this area, and the enhancement of local awareness, preparedness and resilience will, in particular, benefit from the detailed flood hazard and risk assessments being undertaken through the National CFRAM Programme (see below) The National PFRA and CFRAM Programme To deliver on some of the recommendations of the National Flood Policy Review of 2004, the OPW developed the CFRAM Programme. This Programme lies at the core of the assessment of flood risk and the long-term planning of the flood risk management measures throughout the country, including capital, structural and nonstructural measures. The National PFRA (see Section 2.2.2) and the National CFRAM Programme will meet the requirements of the EU Floods Directive that came into force in November 2007, as well as delivering on aspects of the Policy Review. The National CFRAM Programme is being delivered through the CFRAM Studies. The CFRAM Studies are comprehensive catchment-based studies through which detailed flood maps are produced and flood risk management measures are assessed and taken to outline design. These potential measures, where viable, will be prioritised and set out in a Flood Risk Management Plan (FRMP). Pilot CFRAM Studies (e.g., Lee CFRAM, Dodder CFRAM, Fingal East Meath FRAM) have been undertaken since 2006 to develop the optimum approach and methodologies. The CFRAM Studies for the remainder of the country were commissioned in 2011 and early Detailed flood maps for the 300 communities at potentially significant flood risk (the AFAs) identified through the PFRA have been produced, as well as flood maps to a lower level of detail for extensive reaches (approximately 2,500km) of the river network outside of the AFAs. The flood maps produced under the CFRAM Programme will be finalised in 2016 after public consultation. The Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) will be completed in 2016 after further public consultation, and will set out the preferred strategies and measures for managing and reducing flood risk within the AFAs around the country. These measures will be prioritised to determine, subject to 6-yearly reviews and response to the need for emergency works, the long-term investment programme for flood risk management in Ireland. The National PFRA and the flood maps and FRMPs produced through the National CFRAM Programme will need to be reviewed on a six-yearly cycle, and need to be prepared in coordination with the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Both the flood maps and the identification and outline design of flood risk management measures will consider a range of potential future scenarios, including the potential impacts of climate change, ensuring that capacity for adaptation is built into the flood risk management strategy and measures. Page 19 of 68

32 2.3.9 Urban Storm-water Management Urban development can significantly increase flood risk in two primary ways: 1. Urbanisation can, without specific measures such as use of permeable paving, water storage for roof runoff and sustainable urban drainage systems, increase both the rate and volume of runoff from rainfall events; and 2. Urbanisation creates assets that can be potentially damaged by flooding. Local Authorities, as part of their function in managing sustainable planning, levy developments to provide urban storm-water drainage systems to manage and reduce the risk from pluvial flood events, such as the extreme event that occurred in the Dublin area in October Local Authorities further maintain the road and urban storm-water drainage infrastructure within their areas to help ensure that urban runoff can drain into drainage networks for storage and/or removal from potential risk areas. Irish Water is responsible for combined sewerage systems (carrying foul and storm water), and for maintaining the existing capacity of these systems, which can drain urban areas, and for managing new connections and inflows. Historically urban storm-water drainage systems have typically been designed with a capacity of somewhere in the range of a 5-year to 20-year storm event. In the event of more extreme rainfall events, ponding in low-lying urban areas can occur causing property flooding. This can be tackled by enhancing the capacity of the drainage system, which can often be prohibitively expensive, or the hazard and risk from overland flow and ponding can be managed through measures such as retro-fitting sustainable urban drainage systems or the provision of individual property protection. SI No. 122 of 2010, that transposes the EU 'Floods' Directive, requires, following designation by the OPW, that the Local Authorities assess the risk related to urban storm water and, where significant, assess measures to manage the risk in line with the requirements of the 'Floods' Directive. As such, 6-yearly reviews of risk will be undertaken, with flood mapping and the preparation of prioritised measures to be included in the FRMPs where necessary Management of Flood Risk from Infrastructural Assets Water-bearing infrastructure, including piped networks and water retention structures, can potentially cause flooding in the event of failure or blockage. Piped networks might include water supply pipes or sewerage systems, while water-retention structures might include dams and embanked reservoirs and raised canals. The owners and operators of the infrastructure are responsible for managing the risk of flooding from that infrastructure. This involves asset inspection and monitoring, maintenance and renewal, and is undertaken in accordance with strict procedures for assets that constitute a potentially significant risk such as major dams. SI No. 122 of 2010 requires, following designation by the OPW, that the relevant infrastructure owners assess the risk related to their assets and, where significant, assess measures to manage the risk in line with the requirements of the 'Floods' Directive. As such, 6-yearly reviews of risk will be undertaken, with flood mapping and the preparation of prioritised measures to be included in the FRMPs where necessary. Page 20 of 68

33 2.4. LINKS TO OTHER SECTORS Flood events can have impacts on all aspects of life, and as such are a crosssectoral issue that need to be borne in mind by all sectors in considering future development and adaptation to future climatic changes. Flood risk management activities are aimed at reducing the exposure to floods or the impacts floods can have, and hence will generally have a positive impact on other sectors. Structural flood protection can impact negatively on certain sectors, such as the environment and cultural heritage, but these impacts are considered as part of the design process for flood relief schemes and are eliminated, reduced or mitigated where possible as part of that process. Many sectors can, through their actions, also impact on flooding and flood risk. This can be either: Positively by reducing runoff, attenuating floods or reducing impacts and damages; or, Negatively by increasing runoff, creating new potential risks (e.g., through new development or infrastructure located in flood-prone areas) or escalating vulnerability to damage. Table 2.4 outlines some of the assets that can be affected by flooding, and how some sectors can have an impact on flooding and flood risk. It is important to note that flood risk management should not be considered only after development decisions are made; avoidance or prevention of flood risk is better, and almost always cheaper, than mitigating and protection after the creation of a risk. Page 21 of 68

34 Table 2.4: Possible Cross-Sectoral Impacts SECTOR Agriculture Assets Potentially Vulnerable to Flooding Agricultural Land, Farms, Access Roads Possible Impacts of Sector on Flooding and Flood Risk Agricultural practice can influence runoff (e.g., protection of riparian zones, preservation / planting of hedgerows, stocking levels) Biodiversity Flood-Sensitive Habitats Runoff reduction from preservation of bogs Communications Exchanges, Sub-Stations, Masts Media alerts of flooding Communities People, Homes and Possessions Community resilience can reduce flood damages and longer-term impacts Education Emergency Planning Energy Schools, Universities / Colleges, Institutes of Technology Civil Defence, Garda Stations, Fire Stations Power Stations (Incl. Hydropower stations), sub-stations, Gas Installations Raise flood awareness and preparedness through education Risk reduction through flood event emergency planning and response Flood risk reduction from storage in reservoirs Forestry Forestry Lands Afforestation or deforestation can influence runoff regime Health Health facilities (Hospitals, etc.) Treatment of affected people (physically, psychologically) Heritage & Tourism Heritage Assets and Sites Tourist Attractions, Hotels and Camping Sites High vulnerability of temporary residents in flood risk areas Industry Businesses, Assets, Infrastructure Resilience and property protection can reduce risk Potential source of pollution if industrial sites are flooded Local Authorities Council Offices and Depots, Local Roads, Libraries, Civil Defence Sustainable Planning and Development Management Specification of SUDS / runoff control Specification of minimum floor levels, flood resistant / resilient building, etc. Marine Ports, Harbours Coastal processes Transport Water Roads, Bridges (scour), Railways, Ports, Stations, Airports, Wastewater Treatment Works, Water Treatment Plants, Reservoirs Influence on runoff and conveyance Roads required to be open for emergency response Flood risk reduction from storage in reservoirs Other Insurance Industry Risk-sharing Page 22 of 68

35 3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD RISK 3.1. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CLIMATIC PARAMETERS This section discusses the potential impacts on the climatic parameters that can influence flooding and flood risk resulting from climate change. It outlines the findings of international and national research on projections of future climate change Temperature The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) states that it is certain that the global mean surface temperature has increased since the late 19th century. It also states that each of the past three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth s surface than any of the previous decades in the instrumental record, with the decade of the 2000 s being the warmest. A report by the Joint Research Centre into climate change impacts in Europe (JRC, 2014) predicted a temperature increase from the control period until the 2080s of up to C. The warming is highest in the Northern Europe region, and lowest in the UK & Ireland region, for all climate simulations. The predicted temperature increase for the UK and Ireland region is reported as being between 1.4 and 2.9 C. These are slightly lower values than those reports by the C4I project which predicted temperature increases of C by mid century, increasing up to 3.4 C towards the end of the century and that the warming is greatest in the south and east of the country (Dunne et al., 2008). The annual average surface air temperature in Ireland has increased by approximately 0.8 C over the last 110 years (Walsh and Dwyer, 2012). In the period 1961 to 2010 there has been an increase in the number of warm days (those with temperatures over 20 C), and a decrease in the number of frost days (those with temperatures below 0 C), in line with observations across Western Europe Precipitation The IPCC has stated that direct trends in precipitation are difficult to measure with the available record, however the contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions. In Europe the frequency of very wet days has increased over the last 50 years and in Ireland there has been an increase in average annual rainfall of approximately 60 mm or 5% in the period 1981 to 2010, compared to the 30-year period 1961 to 1990 (Walsh and Dwyer, 2012). Met Eireann has predicted that in Ireland winters may become wetter, with a possible increase in precipitation of 10-15%, and that summers will become drier (Dunne et al., 2008). However, the change in precipitation patterns in Ireland, particularly at a local level and for shorter (sub-seasonal) durations, remains uncertain and is the subject of ongoing research Wind Speeds Climate projections indicate that mean wind speeds in Ireland are not expected to change significantly over the coming decades, with slight increases in winter wind speeds (1-2%) and decreases in summer (2-3%) for However, towards Page 23 of 68

36 the end of the century there is a projected overall decline in speeds, particularly in summer (4-5%) (Dunne et al., 2008). It should be noted that the Irish observational records indicate that average annual wind speeds decreased in the 1990s, with this trend continuing in the early years of the 21st century. The latter is consistent with the predicted movement of storm tracks towards polar areas, whereby fewer storms would affect Ireland but the influence of rising sea surface temperatures is likely to lead to more extreme storms. This in turn would indicate that the frequency of very intense cyclones affecting Ireland is likely to increase, which in turn could cause more storm surge events Sea Level Rise The fifth assessment report from the IPPC predicts, with medium confidence, that global mean sea level rise for , relative to , will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.82 m for the different possible future climate scenarios. RCP8.5 predicts the rise in sea level by 2100 will be in the range of 0.52 to 0.98m (IPCC, 2014). However due to an as yet limited understanding of some of the important effects that contribute to rates of increase, a best estimate for sea level rise cannot be provided with confidence, and a rise of up to nearly 2m by 2100 is considered plausible (Jevrejeva et al. 2014). Various studies have shown that during the 20th century, sea level rise has been accelerating (Church & White 2006, Church & White 2011, Jevrejeva et al. 2008) and that there has been an increase in extreme sea levels and waves in recent decades (Woodworth & Blackman 2004, Menéndez & Woodworth 2010). As there are no historic sea level measurements on the time series scales required to accurately assess sea level rise around Ireland s coast, heavy reliance is placed on computer models to predict future trends. A 2013 study by the National University of Ireland, Galway, forecasted an overall sea level rise of approximately 0.47m using a regional ocean model to downscale a 120 year period of the SRES A1B Scenario from AR4 (Olbert et al., 2012). Sea level rise can also be measured using satellite data, which has shown a sea level rise of approximately 2-3 mm per year around Ireland, since the early 1990s. These values are corroborated by tidal records from Newlyn in Cornwall which indicate a mean sea level rise of approximately 1.7mm per year since 1916 (Dwyer and Devoy 2013). Woodworth et al., (2005) have suggested that regional influences, in Europe, may result in sea level rise being up to 50% higher than IPCC global estimates. Coastal retreat rates along the Atlantic coast are currently 0.5 to 1.0 m/year in those areas most affected by storms and will be increased in the future as sea levels rise (Nolan et al 2009) Storm Surges In a warming climate there are concerns that storm surges may increase in frequency and intensity due to a combination of rising sea level and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather, including storms (IPCC, 2014). According to the IPCC report, there is likely to be an increase in the number of intense cyclones and associated strong winds, particularly in winter over the North Atlantic. This will have a direct impact on storm surges, which are primarily caused by low pressure and strong winds. Rising sea levels will heighten the impact of surges (Dunne et al. 2008). Met Eireann undertook a study to evaluate the impact of a changing climate on future storm surges. The results show increases in the frequency of such storms in the future simulation, especially along the western coastline of Ireland. Page 24 of 68

37 3.1.6 Wave Heights Accelerated sea level rise has usually been considered as the major climate change effect on coastal systems, however, for many coasts changes, in wave and surge conditions are potentially more important. The potential change in the hydrodynamic boundary conditions may exacerbate the situation at defences that are already under attack during extreme sea states or may cause defences that are now considered to be safe to be deemed unsafe (de Winter et al 2012). In the southwest of Ireland, significant wave heights (the mean height of the highest 1/3 of waves) have increased by 0.8 m per decade (Nolan et al 2009). Gallagher et al., 2013 predicted an overall decrease in mean significant wave heights for the period , with respect to the period , with a maximum decrease in the winter mean of 20 cm Sea Temperatures Sea temperature and sea level around Irish coastlines have been rising slowly in recent decades. Since the 1980s satellite and in situ observations show a general warming trend of C per decade in Irish waters, mirroring temperature trends over land. However, this has increased since 1994 to 0.6 C per decade, a rate which is unprecedented over the 150 years of record (Nolan et al., 2009). The trends are similar to what has been observed globally, with reports that ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75m warmed by 0.11 C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010 (IPCC, 2013) and are predicted to continue over the coming decades with possibly large impacts on marine ecology Weather Extremes Modelling the sensitivity of the climate system to Atlantic sea surface temperatures suggests that there will be an increase in the frequency of the very intense cyclones that have maximum wind speeds of more than 30 m/s; and increases in the extreme values of wind and precipitation associated with the cyclones. This will translate into an increased risk of storm damage and flooding. The consensus among different modelling approaches is that extreme rainfall events are likely to increase in frequency in autumn and winter. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in these projections and further research is required Impacts Climate change is likely to have significant impacts on freshwater hydrology (Broderick and Murphy, 2013). The interaction between the climate system and landsurface hydrology is complex and any changes in precipitation and evaporation will result in knock on effects for the rest of the hydrological cycle (Broderick and Murphy, 2013). Murphy (2013) conducted a review of recent Irish research into the hydrological impacts of climate change. While there is indication of wetter winters and drier summers from a number of different studies, he argues that it is difficult at this stage to attribute observed trends in observations of Irish river flows to anthropogenic climate change. As a result of the increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall predicted by climate models, it is likely that flood risk will increase over much of Europe (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013). The future magnitude and frequencies of floods are not clear, in part due to the uncertainty about the future evolution of the underlying causes but also because of other factors, including the effects of human intervention. Page 25 of 68

38 Steele-Dunne et al. (2008) studied nine Irish catchments to estimate the impact of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Their research suggested that predicted increase in extreme precipitation events will lead to an elevated risk of flooding with this being particularly significant in the southwest of the country, and those catchments with fast response times. Damage from floods has increased, but evidence linking this to climate changes is weak, because of a lack of data and the effect of past flood risk management. It seems that there has been a measure of adaptation but that exposure of assets at risk has increased (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013). The JRC PESETA II project studied the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe that may occur by the end of this century. The study looked at both the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change. The project covers the climate impacts over the period (referred to as 2080s), compared to Climate change is projected to change the frequency and magnitude of river floods. Flood damages across Europe could more than double, reaching around 11 billion/year. The largest increase would occur in the UK & Ireland and Central Europe South regions. If the 2080s economy is simulated (allowing for economic and population growth), then the damages would be much greater, potentially reaching 98 billion/year under the most extreme climate change scenario. The JRC also studied the costs and benefits of adaptation, with the objective to maintain a 1 in 100-year level of flood protection across Europe into the future. The reduction in damages that could be achieved through effective adaptation is estimated at 53 billion/year by the 2080s, at a cost of 7.9 billion/year (JRC, 2014). It is important to note that flood damage simulations are subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the lack of definiteness in the extreme precipitation projections. In the Irish context, a recent study has estimated that approximately 350 km 2 of land is vulnerable under a 1m sea level rise with potential economic costs relating to property insurance in the region of 1.1 billion per year (Flood and Sweeney, 2012). Approximately 30% of Irish coastal wetlands could be lost given a 1m sea-level-rise scenario (Devoy, 2008) UNCERTAINTY Uncertainty over future climate change is a key challenge for effective adaptation planning. Uncertainties arise in part from an incomplete knowledge of external factors affecting the climate system, such as future greenhouse gas emissions or land use change. Model uncertainty is another source. Climate change models may yield different responses as a result of differences in physical and numerical formulations. Downscaling of global models to smaller geographical scales can also increase uncertainty. There is also uncertainty relating to the natural variability of the climate system that occurs in the absence of external factors and includes processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system (Deser et al 2010). Other sources of uncertainty include changes in social, economic, environmental and technical systems as well as potential changes in the regulatory system. Page 26 of 68

39 When investigating how best to adapt to climate change, these uncertainties can introduce further inaccuracy into assessments of current vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and evaluating adaptation measures. Adaptation decisions need to be made now, however, and uncertainty should not be used to justify inaction. In relation to flood risk management, an incomplete understanding of the workings of the hydrological system, a lack of data and the volume of complex computations required to simulate every hydrological process can create uncertainty in climate change adaptation decisions (Murphy and Charleton, 2008). The impacts of climate change on hydrology are complex and varied. The individual characteristics of a catchment play a central role in determining the hydrological response to climate change. The main sources of uncertainty in flood risk management are: Natural meteorological variability Observational data; Hydrology; Hydraulic model structure; Assessing the effects of future climate change; Assessing the effects of future catchment change; and Assessing the consequences/vulnerability. In an effort to deal with uncertainty, any impact assessment of climate change should incorporate scenarios of change so that a number of possible futures can be accounted for. Where the different scenarios lead to divergent results, decision making in adapting to climate change becomes challenging, with traditional decisionmaking tools proving inadequate (Murphy and Charleton, 2008). J. Hall et al (2012) suggests that the way to deal with climate change uncertainty is to ensure robust adaptation. Robust adaptation measures are measures that remain functional under a wide range of possible climate change scenarios. Some key characteristics of robust adaptation measures are listed in Section 4 herein. Given the multiple uncertainties in relation to climate change and climate change adaptation, and the fact that many of these cannot be adequately quantified, ongoing research on decision-making in the face of uncertainty is needed POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD HAZARD AND RISK The potential impacts of climate change on the primary and secondary climatic parameters that can drive, or that can influence, flooding have been described in Section 3.1 above, with the uncertainty associated with these impacts outlined in Section 3.2. To inform effective and efficient adaptation in the flood risk management sector, it is necessary to understand how these potential changes in climatic parameters can affect the frequency and severity of flooding into the future, and how the resulting risk and potential damages could be affected. This understanding is also of great importance for other sectors, such as agriculture, transport, forestry, energy, etc., to understand how the potential changes in flood regime could impact each sector such that this can be taken into account in developing appropriate adaptation strategies. Page 27 of 68

40 3.3.1 Potential Future Scenarios While there is a very high level of confidence that the mean sea level is rising and that the rate of rise has accelerated over recent decades, and that mean sea levels will continue to rise over the coming decades and probably centuries, it is not known at what rate this ongoing rise will occur over this period, nor at what level the mean sea level may eventually settle long into the future, if indeed it does. There is also considerable uncertainty over the potential changes into the future in local, shortduration extreme rainfall patterns, which are most relevant to the fluvial and pluvial flooding witnessed over recent years. Given this uncertainty, it is clearly not possible to state with any confidence exactly what the future will look like in terms of the frequency or severity of flood events. To decide on selecting one single scenario, i.e., a specific degree of sea level rise and a defined increase in peak flood flows and rainfall intensities, and to design flood defences for this specific scenario could well give rise to mal-adaptation. This is where excess funds could be spent to cater for a worse future than actually occurs, or where works are undertaken that prove to be inadequate, due to a worse than expected future, and which cannot be amended to cater for the worse-than- foreseen future. There are a plethora of projections of future changes in the climatic drivers of flooding. These are generated by the range of: scenario projections into the future (e.g., the four IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, indicating a range of future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations), different models used to simulate how the emissions projections will impact the future climate, and, different parameter sets used in each of the models. Assuming or adopting just a single future projection, from among this plethora of projections, as the basis for decision-making may lead to mal-adaptation (e.g., overor under-estimation of the change and no provision for flexibility). It is also however not feasible to assess the potential impacts and implications of all of the future climate projections on flooding in Ireland. A compromise is required. The OPW decided, during the implementation of the pilot CFRAM Studies, to adopt two indicative potential futures; the Mid-Range Future Scenario (MRFS) and the High-End Future Scenario (HEFS). These were selected to reflect a future that would be typical or near to the general average of the future climate projections at that time, and a more extreme future based on the upper end of the range of projections of future climatic conditions and the impacts such changes would have on the drivers of flood risk. The changes in flood-related parameters under each scenario are set out in Table 3.1. The allowances, that were determined in 2007 at the beginning of the implementation of the CFRAM Programme as part of the pilot Lee CFRAM Project, are not derived from a specific set of projections from the IPCC reports. They were, rather, based on a range of contemporaneous sources, including the guidance at that time from the UK, the FCDPAG3 guidance policy (DEFRA, 2006), research outputs from downscaling climate impact projections by Sweeney and Fealy (2006), and the EPA Report on climate change impacts (2003). Page 28 of 68

41 Table 3.1: Allowances in Flood Parameters for the Mid-Range and High-End Future Scenarios Parameter MRFS HEFS Extreme Rainfall Depths + 20% + 30% Peak Flood Flows + 20% + 30% Mean Sea Level Rise mm mm Land Movement mm / year mm / year 1 Urbanisation No General Allowance Review on Case-by-Case Basis No General Allowance Review on Case-by-Case Basis Forestation - 1/6 Tp 2-1/3 Tp % SPR 3 Note 1: Applicable to the southern part of the country only (Dublin Galway and south of this) Note 2: Reduction in the time to peak (Tp) to allow for potential accelerated runoff that may arise as a result of drainage of afforested land Note 3: Add 10% to the Standard Percentage Runoff (SPR) rate: This allows for temporary increased runoff rates that may arise following felling of forestry. It can be seen that the allowances for the MRFS and HEFS for mean sea level rise would be close to the average and the top end of the projections from the IPCC 5th Report respectively. This comparability gives confidence that the two future scenarios adopted for the CFRAM Programme are acceptable as plausible futures for use in assessing potential requirements for adaptation. The allowances for increases in rainfall depths and/or flood flows have a more limited evidence-base, but, based on existing science, are within the limits of plausibility. It is important to note, however, that the MRFS and HEFS are not intended to represent specific projection and model outcomes, but rather provide potential, or 'representative' futures; an approach recommended under the recent theory of representative futures (Whetton et al., 2012). This approach is based on the use of indicative or possible futures developed from an overview of the ensemble of future projections. As such, they are not specifically time-bound, but could be taken, where a time-line is required, to represent possible futures for The MRFS and HEFS provide potential futures that permit flood hazard and risk assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on flooding, which, in turn, enables an assessment of the vulnerability of different communities and areas around the country to such possible changes. This will inform how flood risk in these communities should be managed now and into the future, which is discussed further in Section 5. The current CFRAM Programme is tied into the use of the MRFS and HEFS as set out above. However, the review of the PFRA and the flood maps and FRMPs for the second cycle of the 'Floods' Directive can consider alternative representative futures that are linked directly to projections based on the four IPCC 5 RCPs. Future assessments can also take into account the outcomes of ongoing research, such as downscaled projections for sectorally-specific impacts assessments, and may also consider more extreme projections of change (e.g., sea level rise of more than 1m). Page 29 of 68

42 3.3.2 Flood Hazard Assessments Section provides a description of flood hazard assessments and their intended outputs. Some hazard assessments taking account of the potential impacts of climate change have been, or are being undertaken, and are outlined below. The final outcomes of these assessments, and ongoing reviews and updates, will be made available as they are produced (see Section 5.2.8). Broad-Scale Flood Hazard Assessments The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) completed in 2011 (refer to Section 2.2.2) involved national indicative flood mapping for coastal, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The 'Floods' Directive does not require that climate change be taken into account during the first stage of implementation, and the data required to assess readily the impacts of climate change on flooding in Ireland were not available for all sources at the time of undertaking the PFRA. The 'Floods' Directive does, however, require that climate change be taken into account in future cycles of implementation. The OPW and other relevant authorities will need to review and update the PFRA for the potential sources of flooding they have responsibilities for, taking account of the potential impacts of climate change, by the end of 2018 when the second cycle PFRA is due to be completed. As part of the preparation for the second cycle of the PFRA, and making use of the work done under the Irish Coastal Protection Strategy Study (ICPSS), the OPW has been developing coastal flood mapping for the MRFS and HEFS (ref: OPW, ICPSS: ). These maps were finalised in 2014, and are publicly available from the OPW website ( While these maps are indicative, and do not take account of flood defences, it is clear that sea level rise will lead to much greater areas of land being subject to coastal flooding into the future. As noted in Section above, the MRFS and HEFS provide for mean sea level rises of 500mm and 1000mm respectively. This has impacts on the levels and extents of flooding for events of a given frequency or probability occurring in the future, but conversely can be considered in terms of the potential increase in frequency of events of a given magnitude / level into the future. Examples of this are shown in Table 3.2, where the probability of recent coastal floods is given based on current sea levels, and then projections of how often such events would occur into the future under the rise in mean seal level assumed for the MRFS and HEFS. Table 3.2: Frequency of Recent Coastal Flood Events under the Current Scenario, the MRFS and the HEFS Recent Event Indicative Frequency of Event Occurrence Current Scenario MRFS HEFS Dublin - Feb years 2 years Very Frequent Limerick - Feb years years 2 years Cork - Feb years 2 years Very Frequent Table 3.2 shows that the flood levels that occurred in Dublin on 1st February 2002 could occur approximately every 2 years with a 500mm rise in mean sea levels, and very frequently with 1000mm of mean sea level rise. Similar increases in frequency might be expected for Cork City, while the increase in frequency for the recent event in Limerick is less extreme, but would lead to very significant increases in damages without adaptation. Page 30 of 68

43 Broad-scale assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard for other sources of flooding is not possible at this time but, as above, will be undertaken for the second cycle of the PFRA (by the end of 2018). Local Flood Hazard Assessments The National CFRAM Programme is underway, and involves the production of flood maps for a range of flood event magnitudes or probabilities 2 from the less severe, more frequent 50% AEP (2-year) flood to very extreme and rare 0.1% AEP (1000- year) flood. As well as mapping flood hazard under current conditions, the CFRAM Programme will also provide flood hazard maps for the MRFS and for the HEFS. Table 3.3 sets out the range of flood hazard maps being produced for the future scenarios under the CFRAM Programme. Table 3.3: Flood Maps to be Produced under the National CFRAM Programme Type of Flood Map Flood Event Probabilities to be Mapped for Each Scenario Current MRFS HEFS Flood Extent All Probabilities 1 All Probabilities 1 10%, 1%, 0.1% Flood Zone 1%, 0.1% 1%, 0.1% N / A Flood Depth All Probabilities 1 10%, 1%, 0.1% N / A Flood Velocity All Probabilities 1 N / A N / A 'Risk to Life' 10%, 1%, 0.1% N / A N / A Note 1: 'All probabilities' refers to all eight of the flood event probabilities referred to above and set out in the relevant footnote. Flood hazard maps for the future scenarios are already available from the pilot CFRAM Studies (for the Lee, Dodder and Fingal - East Meath Areas) Flood Risk Assessments Section provides a description of flood risk assessments and their intended outputs. As per the hazard assessments, some risk assessments taking account of the potential impacts of climate change have been, or are being undertaken, and are outlined below. The final outcomes of these assessments, and ongoing reviews and updates, will be made available as they are produced (see Sections 5.2.8). Broad-Scale Flood Risk Assessments As noted under Section 3.3.2, the first cycle of the PFRA, completed in 2011, did not take account of climate change. However, some initial risk analysis has been undertaken making use of the indicative coastal flood mapping for the MRFS and HEFS. While again noting that this mapping is indicative, and that it does not account for coastal flood defences, this analysis has indicated that there will be a substantial increase in the number of properties within certain communities potentially at risk from coastal flooding in the future. 2 The range of probabilities for which flood maps will be produced include those with an annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.1%. Page 31 of 68

44 The increase is shown graphically in Figure 3.1, where the percentage increase in the number of properties at risk from coastal flooding in the 0.5% AEP (200-year) flood for given communities is shown for the MRFS relative to the current number at risk. Figure 3.1: Percentage Increase in Indicative Number of Properties at Risk from Coastal Flooding for the MRFS Relative to Current Numbers Page 32 of 68

45 Local Flood Risk Assessments The impact of climate change on both hazard and risk will be site specific, and therefore will vary from community to community. A full overview of the outcomes of the detailed assessments will be available upon completion during 2015 of the CFRAM risk assessment process, but some detailed hazard and risk assessments have been undertaken for some communities under the CFRAM Programme as part of the CFRAM Pilot Studies or the early deliverables. Some sample outcomes are outlined below. A) Clonakilty Clonakilty in West Cork is affected by both coastal and fluvial flood risk. Under the South-Western CFRAM Project a detailed assessment of the economic risk has been undertaken for the current conditions and for the MRFS and HEFS. The outcomes of this assessment are shown in Figures 3.2 to 3.4, which respectively plot the total, fluvial and coastal expected event damages (in millions of euro) against the event probability for the current conditions, the MRFS and the HEFS. B) Lee and Fingal-East Meath CFRAM Studies An assessment of the number of properties at risk from flooding was undertaken as part of both the Lee and Fingal - East Meath CFRAM Studies for the communities deemed to be at potentially significant flood risk, for the current scenario and the MRFS. A summary of the outcomes of these assessments is set out in Table 3.4, with numbers of properties per community at risk per scenario for fluvial and coastal flooding presented in Tables 3.5 and 3.6 in each of these study areas respectively. Table 3.4: Total Number of Properties at Risk in the Current Scenario and MRFS - Lee and Fingal - East Meath CFRAM Study Type of Flooding Current MRFS Increase in number Fluvial 2,157 3,641 1,484 Coastal 1,618 3,544 1,926 Total 3,775 7,185 3,410 While the outcomes presented in Table 3.5 to 3.7 are only representative, it can be seen that the average increase in the numbers of properties prone to flooding would increase by somewhere in the order of 90% relative to those currently at risk, with a greater increase in risk likely in communities affected by coastal flooding (119% increase) relative to those affected by fluvial flooding (69% increase). It should be noted however that these conclusions are based only on a small sample, and therefore may not reflect the national situation, and the figure for the increase in coastal risk is substantially greater than the approximate national figure of about 50%, based on the broad-scale assessment. It can also be seen however from Tables 3.5 and 3.6 that the degree of increase is highly variable from community to community, with some, such as Ashbourne and Swords, expected to suffer a relatively modest increase in risk, but with other communities or cities, such as Carrigaline, Cork City, Midleton and Portmarnock / Malahide, suffering more substantial increases. Page 33 of 68

46 Figure 3.2: Expected Economic Damages in Clonakilty from Current and Future Scenarios - Coastal Flooding Current M RFS Flood Event Damage ( million) HEFS Flood Event Probability (% AEP) Figure 3.3: Expected Economic Damages in Clonakilty from Current and Future Scenarios - Fluvial Flooding Current M RFS Flood Event Damage ( million) HEFS Flood Event Probability (% AEP) Figure 3.4: Expected Economic Damages in Clonakilty from Current and Future Scenarios - Coastal and Fluvial Flooding Current M RFS Flood Event Damage ( million) HEFS Flood Event Probability (% AEP) Page 34 of 68

47 Table 3.5: Number of Properties at Risk in the Current Scenario and MRFS - Lee CFRAM Study Location Current MRFS Increase in number Fluvial 1,633 2,892 1,259 Crossbarry Carrigaline Glanmire/Sallybrook Midleton Baile Bhuirne / Baile Mhic Ire Macroom Douglas / Togher Cork City 1,400 2,401 1,001 Ballincollig Tower and Blarney Kilumney Crookstown Tidal 1,410 2,879 1,469 Cork City 1,168 2,356 1,188 Carrigaline Crosshaven Aghada / Rostellan Cobh Passage West / Monkstown Midleton Glounthane Little Island Glanmire Douglas Total 3,043 5,771 2,728 Page 35 of 68

48 Table 3.6: Number of Properties at Risk in the Current Scenario and MRFS - Fingal - East Meath CFRAM Study Location Current MRFS Increase in number Fluvial Duleek Lusk Ratoath Ashbourne Portmarnock / Malahide Swords Rush Skerries Balbriggan Tidal Portmarnock / Malahide Swords Rush Skerries Laytown / Bettystown Baldoyle Total 732 1, Conclusions on Future Flood Hazards and Risks As set out in Section 3.1, there is a clear indication that sea levels are rising, that the rate of rise is currently accelerating and that even if carbon emissions stabilised today, sea levels would continue to rise throughout this century and into the next. The projections for change in annual rainfall totals is less clear, but the indication is that winters in Ireland may become milder and wetter, and the summers hotter and drier. There is considerable uncertainty in relation to the potential impacts of climate change on local and short-duration (1 day or less) rainfall intensities, but a warmer column of air can contain more water and so more intense rainfall events are possible. There are a number of sources of information available at present on the potential impacts of the changes to these climatic parameters on flood risk, based on the MRFS and the HEFS as defined in Section These are based on indicative, broad-scale assessments and local, more detailed assessments. Page 36 of 68

49 The potential changes in risk (i.e., in vulnerability) between different communities is highly variable. As such, it is clear that localised assessments are required to determine how vulnerable a community or area might be to changing flood regimes, and what adaptation measures and approaches might be appropriate. For the MRFS, the number of properties exposed to coastal flooding nationally is expected to increase by about 50%, and by 100% for the HEFS. Localised studies, however, again show that this increase is highly variable. What is particularly noticeable is that the frequency of occurrence of coastal floods of a given magnitude is expected to increase considerably, particularly on the east coast. While the numbers of properties exposed to flooding due to this change may increase by %, the damages caused to those new properties at risk, and importantly also the properties already at risk, would rise far more substantially, as reflected in the rise in economic damages for the detailed study results from Clonakilty. The national increase in the number of properties exposed to fluvial flooding has not been estimated as yet, but catchment-level assessments indicate that for the MRFS the increase may be in the order of 50-75%. As with coastal risk however, the increase in damages may well exceed this substantially due to the increased frequency of flooding of those properties already at risk. Further assessments are required to determine the levels of vulnerability to the potential changes in the flooding regime that could be caused by climate change. Due to the variability of vulnerability, such assessments need to be undertaken at the community-level, and where possible, should be based on detailed local assessments. However, broad-scale, indicative assessments of changes in flood hazard can equally provide information on local vulnerabilities, as long as the risk assessment using the broad-scale hazard information is undertaken locally. The proposed actions to address these information needs are set out in Section 5. The outcomes of these assessments, along with existing information, should be used by planning authorities, developers and other sectors to consider appropriate adaptation approaches to current activities and planned future investments. Page 37 of 68

50 4. ADAPTATION POLICIES This section sets out the international and national context / requirements for climate change adaptation and then international and national research and recommended policies; generally and specifically on adaptation for flood risk management INTRODUCTION Climate change adaptation can be defined as the adjustment of natural or human systems to a changing environment, with the aim of moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities. Human intervention, in some natural systems, may assist adjustment to expected climate and its effects. (IPCC, 2014). The 2014 IPCC Working Group II AR5 Report divides climate change adaptation into two categories, incremental and transformational. Incremental adaptation actions aim to maintain the fundamental nature and integrity of a system or process at a given scale. Transformational adaptation actions change the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects. (IPCC, 2014). Transformational adaptation may be required in some locations where the vulnerabilities are large and the change in climate is severe (Kates et al., 2012). It might include any or all of the following: Adaptation at a large scale or magnitude; The use of new technologies or practices; The formation of new structures or systems of governance; and Shifts in the location of activities. (IPCC, 2014). Climate change adaptation can be broken down into the following five processes: Observation; Assessment of impacts and vulnerability; Planning; Implementation; and, Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions. Ensuring knowledge sharing and learning, the active and sustained engagement of stakeholders, and effective knowledge management are also important aspects of adaptation (UNFCCC website). Ongoing and sustained observations and monitoring of climatic and non-climatic data are important elements in the development and implementation of adaptation policy, including socio-economic and environmental data, and the support of research towards improved understanding and modelling of the climate system and the prediction climate change impacts POLICY REVIEW International approach to Climate Change Adaptation The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recommends the following steps be taken when implementing national adaptation programmes: Page 38 of 68

51 1. Assess impacts, vulnerability and risks. Undertake an initial assessment of the extent to which climate change is impacting or will impact natural systems. The capacity of natural systems and society to adapt to climate change impacts should also be assessed. 2. Planning for adaptation. Identify adaptation activities and carry out an appraisal, including through assessing costs and benefits in order to choose appropriately between the options available. Comprehensive planning should ensure avoiding the duplication of activities, preventing mal-adaptation, and enhancing sustainable development. 3. Implementing adaptation measures. Implementation takes place at various levels, including national, regional and local, and through different means, including projects, programmes, policies or strategies. It may be a stand alone process or be fully integrated or mainstreamed with sectoral policies and sustainable development plans. 4. Monitoring and evaluating adaptation. The monitoring and evaluation of adaptation can be undertaken throughout the adaptation process and the knowledge and information gained fed back into the process. This will help to support learning and ensure that future adaptation efforts are successful. Monitoring will also record progress made in implementation, EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change The European Commission (EC) adopted an EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (COM(2013) 216) in April The objective of the Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a climate resilient Europe by ensuring that adaptation considerations are addressed in all relevant EU policies. It also promotes greater coordination and information-sharing between Member States. The EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change is the culmination of a series of earlier documents. The European Commission Green Paper from June 2007 on adapting to climate change in Europe (COM(2007) 354 final) was the first step in dealing with adaptation at the EU policy level. This was followed by the White Paper "Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action" (COM(2009) 147 final). A key deliverable of the white paper was the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT), launched in March There are eight actions in the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change: Action 1: Encourage all Member States to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies. Action 2: Provide LIFE funding to support capacity building and step up adaptation action in Europe. ( ). Action 3: Introduce adaptation in the Covenant of Mayors framework (2013/2014). Action 4: Bridge the knowledge gap. Action 5: Further develop Climate-ADAPT as the one-stop shop for adaptation information in Europe. Action 6: Facilitate the climate-proofing of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the Cohesion Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Action 7: Ensure more resilient infrastructure. Action 8: Promote insurance and other financial products for resilient investment and business decisions (COM(2013) 216). Page 39 of 68

52 The Adaptation Strategy is designed as a framework strategy that sets broad goals, outlines the course of action and suggests processes for implementation without regulating all the details. The effectiveness of such a framework approach depends on the successful transfer of ideas and information on climate change adaptation to a range of policy areas, institutions and processes i.e. policy integration or mainstreaming (BASE, 2013). Mainstreaming climate adaptation is a cross sectoral challenge. The approach taken should enhance adaptive capacity and maximise synergies among sector specific policy objectives (BASE, 2013). Mainstreaming also requires an approach that will identify, and where possible, address policy conflicts. The underlying challenge is that sectoral policy objectives can be undermined by conflicts with existing policy objectives within a sector, and or between sectors. For example, in the context of flooding, policies to focus development in an area that is expected to become subject to significant flood risk under future scenarios may be in conflict with flood risk management adaptation policy. The Strategy promotes coordination of different policy objectives in the sectors, and co-benefits that might occur but does specify a weight for climate change adaptation issues in relation to others e.g. climate goals are as important or more important than other goals. As a result, if potential conflicts arise in policy objectives the weight that will eventually be given to climate change adaptation in relation to other goals and hence whether climate change adaptation integration will be weak or strong may differ from sector to sector. The strategy places an emphasis on better informed decision making. The emphasis is on bridging knowledge gaps and identifying relevant tools to help decision makers. It states that monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation are crucial. By learning about the process of planning, implementing and measuring adaptation, future adaptation interventions can be more effective, efficient and equitable. Monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) is an important part of this process. This has been recognised by UNFCCC and is also seen as a critical part of the EU Adaptation Strategy (EC, 2013). The EC will assess the status of adaptation in Europe via a number of mechanisms including the Adaptation Preparedness Scoreboard. The strategy may be updated in 2017 when the Commission will report to the European Parliament and the Council on the state of implementation of the Strategy Irish Adaptation Policy Irelands first National Climate Change Strategy was published in 2000, followed by the second strategy in The primary focus of these strategies was on greenhouse gas mitigation, however Chapter 11 of the 2007 strategy covered adaptation and set out the Government's commitment to develop a national adaptation strategy. In 2012 the Government published the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (DECLG, 2012). It sets out Government policy for addressing climate change adaptation in Ireland focusing on key climate sensitive sectors. The aim of the Framework is to ensure that an effective role is played by all stakeholders in putting in place an active and enduring adaptation policy regime. Page 40 of 68

53 The Framework mandates that certain Government Departments, other public sector bodies and Local Authorities develop and implement sectoral and local adaptation plans which will form part of the national response to the impacts of climate change. (DECLG, 2012). The Framework outlines that the sectoral plans will be based on sectoral risk assessments, and include consultation on with relevant stakeholders. Table 4.1 sets out the Sectors and lead Departments and Agencies responsible for producing the sectoral adaptation plans. The Framework states that in drawing up sectoral plans, the following steps must be reflected: A clear understanding of the consequences of a changing climate for each sector; Actions to equip decision makers with skills and tools; and The integration of adaptation into policy and administration at sectoral level in Ireland. (DECLG, 2012). Table 4.1: Lead Departments and Agencies for Sectoral Adaptation Plans (DECLG, 2012). SECTOR LEVEL Water Emergency Planning Marine Agriculture Forestry Biodiversity Heritage Transport Energy Communications Flood Risk Management Health LEAD DEPARTMENT OR AGENCY DECLG DECLG DAFM DAFM DAFM DAHG DAHG DTTAS DCENR DCENR OPW Department of Health The Framework states that Climate Change adaptation will be mainstreamed into local authority activity through their development plans.for the purposes of the Framework, Local Authorities should carry out an assessment of the extent to which their existing development plans adequately address climate change adaptation. (DECLG, 2012). Page 41 of 68

54 4.3. RESEARCH REVIEW ON ADAPTATION FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT International Research There are a number of international studies on climate change adaptation in relation to flooding and flood risk management being undertaken by organisations such as the IPCC and EU and by various universities. Some key studies are discussed further below. In 2012 the IPCC produced a special report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation"(IPCC, 2012). The report examines recent scientific literature on climate change and the impacts from extreme events and discusses options for managing risks. In relation to future flood risk the report notes that there is no gauge-based evidence identified for a clear climate driven change in the magnitude/frequency of river floods. This is linked to the limited number of gauges, changes in land use and river engineering, all of which make it difficult to identify climate driven trends (Kundzewicz et al, 2013) The assessment and assigning of causes of changes in flooding is also complex and difficult. The report recommends that a range of approaches be applied to adapt to the risk posed by climate change, including hard infrastructure and soft solutions such as individual and organisational capacity (IPCC, 2012). It also recommends that 'lowregrets' measures (i.e. measures that provide benefits for the current climate and a range of future scenarios) are considered and highlights the importance of monitoring, research and evaluation. It notes that perceptions of risk among individual stakeholders are driven by culture values and beliefs. This ties in with research undertaken by social scientists, who have called into question the idea that more science will lead to better decision making (Kahan et al, 2012), and who believe that values and worldviews determine how people engage with climate change. This may be an important issue in promoting local initiatives on climate change adaptation. The Common Implementation Strategy For The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) Guidance Document No 24 (CIS ) is a useful resource that outlines how to incorporate climate change in flood risk management by following the main steps of the Floods Directive. The EU research project "Bottom-Up Climate Adaptation Strategies for a Sustainable Europe" (BASE) was set up in 2012 to provide information on adaptation that is transferable and easily accessible to decision-makers. In relation to flood risk management it is involved in a pilot project on integrating river basin planning and flood risk management. A wide range of measures will be assessed to identify possibilities to achieve climateproof river basin management plans and flood risk management plans. The project will address how and to what extent multicriteria decision methods can contribute to the development and assessment of measures, stakeholder participation and influence the acceptance of plans and adaptation measures (BASE website). Knowledge for Climate is a research programme, set up by Wageningen University and Research Centre and the University of Utrecht, with the aim of bringing scientifically funded and practically obtained knowledge concerning climate and related themes into the public arena. It is looking at adaptation responses to flood risks and in particular will: Page 42 of 68

55 Develop methods for assessing the effectiveness of technical measures and policy instruments to reduce flood risks; Examine the implications of their implementation for urban and countryside environments; Assess the robustness (resilience and resistance) of comprehensive FRM strategies in view of uncertainty about climate change; and Provide guidelines for the design of long-term FRM alternatives and individual measures based on effectiveness, robustness and their multi-functional use Irish Research In Ireland much of the research concerning climate change adaptation is coordinated by the EPA or undertaken by research groups in the national universities or public bodies (e.g., Met Eireann, the Marine Institute, Teagasc). In the last few years a number of reports have been published that are relevant to climate change adaptation and flood risk management. The Climate Change Research Programme (CCRP) Report No 28 examined the challenges for coastal climate change adaptation in Ireland (EPA, 2013a). The aims of the Coastal Climate Adaptation and Development (CLAD) Project were to assess the requirements of coastal adaptation in Ireland and provide the tools and resources that Local Authorities and coastal communities might use when initiating coastal adaptation at the local scale. It highlighted some of the key barriers to effective coastal climate change adaptation in Ireland which include: The fragmentation of institutions and administrative functions with regard to coastal governance; Ill-defined responsibilities among the actors and institutions involved in climate change adaptation; Short-term planning horizons; and A lack of experience of cross-sectoral cooperation and stakeholder involvement. The Report recommended the use of an approach called adaptive co-management which involves participatory decision-making. Unsurprisingly, the Report states that integrating coastal climate adaptation into existing and future planning will require substantial capacity-building at the local level. The Report also recommends that communication regarding climate impacts and adaptation should employ existing social networks, if possible, and harnessing levels of trust and social capital established over the long term. It is not clear, however, how potential conflicts should be dealt with. The CCRP Report No 30 looked at Co-ordination, Communication and Adaptation for Climate Change in Ireland (COCOADAPT, EPA, 2013b). It recommends that a climate change adaptation approach move away from considering climate change impacts explicitly, and identify instead where and when vulnerability to climate change may emerge. Such an approach combines flexibility with planning over long time horizons, as well as adaptive management, recognising the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes. In the short term, many low-regrets or no-regrets forms of adaptation planning can be pursued and over longer time scales, approaches based on risk assessment which integrate 'vulnerability thinking can be enacted. Page 43 of 68

56 The Report also recommends that where investment in new infrastructure is required, it is recommended that such infrastructure be subjected to a sensitivity analysis of performance under the full range of uncertainty associated with climate change. Future research needs for climate change adaptation for the flood risk management sector are outlined in Section 5.3 below. Page 44 of 68

57 5. SECTORAL ADAPTATION REQUIREMENTS This Section sets out how adaptation to the potential impacts of climate change will be implemented within the flood risk management sector, and how such impacts should be considered within adaptation by other sectors. The actions set out herein are subject to the availability of resources to each relevant organisation within their future budgetary provisions OBJECTIVES AND POLICY STATEMENT The objectives of the Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management are to: Define the OPW policy with respect to adaptation to the potential impacts of climate change to ensure a sustainable approach to flood risk management in Ireland; Define actions required to implement the adaptation policy in areas of: o o o o o o research; hazard and vulnerability assessment; the design, implementation and maintenance of flood risk management measures; capacity building; monitoring and review; and of adaptation planning and governance. Promote a joined-up approach to adaptation within the flood risk management sector and effective and sustainable flood risk management in other sectors. To meet these objectives, and in defining a climate change adaptation policy, the OPW recognises: the strong body of evidence that climate change is occurring and likely to continue to occur for the next century and beyond, and that the impacts of such change are likely to be detrimental in terms of flood hazards, and hence flood risks; that there is a considerable degree of spatial, temporal and quantitative uncertainty in relation to the projected impacts of climate change, and that, while prudence is required in the allocation of public funds, action is required now to understand and prepare for the potential impacts of climate change; and that effective adaptation requires an integrated approach among all relevant parties. The OPW has adopted, as a means of addressing these challenges, the following policy in relation to assessing and providing for the potential impacts of climate change for the Flood Risk Management Programme: The possible impacts of climate change, and the associated uncertainty in projections, shall be considered at all stages of activity under the national Flood Risk Management Programme, and the development, design and implementation of all policies, strategies, plans and measures for, or related to, flood risk management must be sustainable and cognisant of the potential impacts of climate change. Page 45 of 68

58 5.2. ADAPTATION FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES The current flood risk management activities that take place within Ireland and that form the scope of this Plan are set out in Section 2.3 herein. Each of these activities are addressed below in terms of how adaptation for the potential impacts of climate change should be incorporated and embedded for future application Land Commission Embankments As set out in Section 2.3.1, the Land Commission embankments provide variable standards of protection to rural areas and agricultural land against tidal, and in some cases fluvial, inundation. A central record of the standard of protection provided by each embankment, and their physical condition (and hence likelihood of failure) does not currently exist, although this information will be provided for some of the embankments through the National CFRAM Programme. As sea levels continue to rise, the standard of protection provided by the embankments will fall, and the likelihood of failure will rise. Increases in fluvial flood flows and levels will cause similar effects although there is much greater uncertainty on future increases in flood flows. A decision will need to be taken, for the set of embankments as a whole, and potentially for each embankment individually, as to what response to sea level rise is appropriate. This could include: Removal of the embankments (often referred to as 'managed retreat'); No action (i.e., the standard of protection is permitted to fall and likelihood of failure is permitted to rise); Maintenance (investment is made to maintain the embankments to reduce the likelihood of failure, but not to preserve the standard of protection); and Improvement (investment is made to maintain the standard of protection in the face of rising sea levels, most likely by increasing embankment crest levels, and to reduce the likelihood of failure). This decision should be informed in terms of both investment costs and benefits for potential futures. This would require information on current conditions and standards of protection (where available), how the standard of protection is likely to fall and how the likelihood of failure may be expected to rise into the future assuming a policy of 'No Action'. The assessment would also needs to consider what the likely damages are that could arise from this policy and the expected costs and benefits of adopting an alternative policy. The decision would also need to be informed by the potential impacts on the environment and protected species and habitats that may be affected by 'coastal squeeze', where habitats seaward of a maintained coastal protection structure can be lost due to rising sea levels. This assessment should, in part, be completed as part of the review of the PFRA for the second cycle of implementation of the 'Floods' Directive. Adaptation Action B.3 (Assessment) - OPW & DAFM, 2018: As part of the review of the PFRA, assess, based on available and readily-derivable information, the existing and potential future standard of protection and benefits of the Land Commission embankments. Page 46 of 68

59 5.2.2 Drainage Districts Drainage Districts were established primarily for land improvement for agricultural production, rather than flood protection, but do provide some benefit in reducing flood risks. The Local Authorities are responsible for the Drainage Districts, and have a statutory duty to maintain the schemes. If rainfall increases into the future then benefitting lands may become saturated more often and flood risks may also increase. This could arise from seasonal increases in rainfall as well as from increases in rainfall depth and/or intensity in individual rainfall events, with the former more likely to affect land saturation and water-logging over extended periods. This reduction in performance level is considerably more likely if the drainage schemes are not maintained to an effective condition. As noted in Section 3, the indication is that, generally, Ireland is likely to experience milder, wetter winters in the future with hotter, drier summers, with the North-West expected to receive greater increases in rainfall, and the South-East likely to experience greater reductions. It is, however, also noted that there is considerable uncertainty in future rainfall projections, particularly for shorter time steps and smaller geographical areas. The most intense period of land use and agricultural production in the areas benefitting from the Drainage Districts are the summer months. As future summers are expected to be warmer and drier, it could be expected that climate change will be beneficial in terms of reducing saturation or water-logging of agricultural lands through both the reduction in rainfall and increased evaporation due to higher temperatures. However, management activities outside of the summer months can influence the annual productivity of the land, and increased rainfall, and resulting water-logging and flooding, during these periods could impact on agricultural production. Increased land saturation and water-logging may occur during winter months if winter rainfall increases. There is, however, no evidence of the degree of increase in saturation or water-logging that may arise in potential futures, and the detrimental impact this could have on agricultural production is uncertain. Adaptation Action A.1 (Research) EPA & Met Eireann, Ongoing: Improve, through research, the understanding of likely future changes in seasonal and shortduration rainfall patterns and the frequency of occurrence and severity of weather storms to inform future assessments. Adaptation Action A.2 (Research) DAFM, Ongoing: Assess, through research, the impacts of future changes in seasonal and short-duration rainfall patterns on land saturation and water-logging, and resultant effects on farming Arterial Drainage Schemes The Arterial Drainage Schemes comprise a mix of drainage schemes and embankment schemes. The OPW is responsible for the maintenance of the Arterial Drainage Schemes, and has a statutory duty to maintain the schemes in proper repair and effective condition. As with the Drainage District Schemes, the foreseen future changes in rainfall patterns are likely to be beneficial with regards to the objectives of the Arterial Drainage Schemes based on drainage (as opposed to embankments) during drier, Page 47 of 68

60 hotter summers, but may be detrimental in the event of wetter winters. Again, however, it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future rainfall projections. The statutory requirements with respect to the maintenance of the drainage capacity of the Arterial Drainage Schemes is to maintain the design performance levels. Therefore, the Arterial Drainage Schemes should continue to be maintained to an effective condition to avoid deterioration of performance levels, but, given the uncertainties, no additional actions to change practice or increase capacity are proposed at this time under this Plan. The actions of research work to improve understanding of future rainfall patterns and the potential impacts on land saturation and water-logging as set out for the Drainage Districts (Actions A.1 and A.2) will also inform future adaptation activities for the Arterial Drainage Schemes. Arterial Drainage Schemes based on embankments are primarily in estuarine areas to protect against tidal inundation of rural areas and agricultural lands, although there are some also protecting land from fluvial flooding. In the same manner as for Land Commission embankments, these embankments will be faced with reducing standards of protection and increased likelihood of failure with rising sea levels and potentially increasing fluvial flood flows and levels. Many of the Arterial Drainage Scheme embankments are being assessed for standard of protection and surveyed for condition under the National CFRAM Programme, but some are not. Action is hence required to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the performance of the Arterial Drainage Scheme embankments. Adaptation Action B.4 (Assessment) OPW, 2018: As part of the review of the PFRA, assess the existing standard of protection and condition and benefits of the Arterial Drainage Scheme Embankments, and assess the costs, benefits, merits and impacts of maintenance or improvement of the embankments to inform future work. There is a statutory duty (on the OPW) to maintain the Arterial Drainage Scheme embankments, thus the options of Removal (managed retreat) and No Action are not applicable to these embankments, unless there is a change to the relevant legislation Hydrometric Monitoring High quality, long-term hydrometric records are critical for monitoring the effects of climate change on the hydrological regime. As such, stations providing such records must be maintained or upgraded, and, with a view to future data needs, some additional stations may be required to address any data gaps in terms of regional coverage and catchment types (size, soil and geology, elevation and slope, etc.). The EPA published a report in 2008 entitled 'Climate Change Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System in Ireland' (EPA, 2008), which provides an assessment of the progress on actions for Ireland under the Implementation Plan of the Global Climate Observation System (GCOS), established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The report concludes that Ireland is generally fulfilling its climate observation commitments in regard to the UNFCCC, but that there are a number of areas in which additional funding and resources are required to augment existing programmes or to put in place new monitoring initiatives in order to meet the GCOS requirements fully. The Page 48 of 68

61 report also concludes that further assessment is required to determine national and local needs for climate change observation. More recent research under the HydroDetect Project (EPA, 2013c) identified a number of hydrometric stations within the Irish Reference Network of high-quality gauging stations with limited artificial influences to facilitate more strategic monitoring of climate-driven variability and change in hydrological indicators to enable more confident attribution of detected trends. The National CFRAM Programme will identify which of the communities covered by the Programme are particularly vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change on flooding. This may identify further hydrometric monitoring needs with respect to the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk specifically. Such needs, that may include rainfall monitoring as well as river flow and water level gauging, would form part of the FRMPs. Adaptation Action C.2 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, 2016: Identify, as part of the preparation of the FRMPs being produced under the National CFRAM Programme, additional hydrometric monitoring needs with respect to monitoring or assessing the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk for vulnerable communities Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes) The adaptation plan needs to set out requirements for both existing and future flood relief schemes. Existing Flood Relief Schemes As set out in Section 2.3.5, a number of flood relief schemes have been built by the OPW following the Arterial Drainage (Amendment) Act, 1995, and under local authority powers. As sea levels continue to rise, and if river flood flows and levels rise as a result of the impacts of climate change, the standard of protection offered by these flood relief schemes will fall. This impact is expected to be particularly significant in coastal areas, given the potential increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels, as shown in Table 3.2. The potential impacts of climate change on the standard of protection of the existing flood relief schemes is being assessed under the National CFRAM Programme. Following this assessment, decisions will need to be made as to how the decrease in standard of protection will need to be addressed, i.e., how we will need to adapt to climate change with respect to existing flood relief schemes. Options for adaptation include: Enhance or amend the existing scheme to maintain the standard of protection; Introduce other measures to maintain the standard of protection; and Maintain the existing scheme, accepting that standards of protection will fall, and introduce other measures to manage or reduce the increasing flood risk. The potential option of 'Do Nothing' also exists but is not deemed acceptable. The choice of option will depend on many factors, such as the potential rate or degree of reduction in standard of protection and the consequences of this, and the costs, benefits, impacts and acceptability of each option. The appropriate option in each case will be assessed by the OPW as part of the second cycle of the EU 'Floods' Directive implementation to identify appropriate adaptation measures for each existing scheme to be included in the FRMPs for Page 49 of 68

62 Adaptation Action B.2 (Assessment) OPW, 2016: Potential impacts of climate change on the standard of protection for existing flood relief schemes to be reviewed as part of National CFRAM Programme. Adaptation Action C.3 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, : Appropriate adaptation options for each existing flood relief scheme to be assessed in the review of the first FRMPs, with any necessary measures to be set out in the second cycle FRMPs. Future Flood Relief Schemes For new flood relief schemes, adaptation to the potential impacts of climate change needs to be assessed as part of the scheme identification, development, design and implementation. This will be based on an adaptive management approach that involves the following steps: 1) Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on flooding extents, depths, etc. in the relevant community or area; 2) Appraisal of the vulnerability of the relevant community or area to the potential impacts of climate change, taking account of potential socio-economic changes that could influence future flood risk; 3) Consideration of potential measures to manage existing and potential future flood risk; 4) Determination of the most robust, 'no regrets' strategy and design for shortterm investment in flood risk management measures. This should take account of the range of future investments that may be necessary depending on how the impacts of climate change are manifested with respect to flood risk. This may be done making use of methods such as decision-tree analysis in conjunction with multi-criteria analyses and economic cost-benefit assessments as used as standard in flood risk management scheme appraisal; and 5) Ongoing monitoring of climate change indicators and projections and review of the need for further investments. Steps 1, 2, 3 and 5 of this approach will be undertaken in detail through the National CFRAM Programme, with an outline application of Step 4 also implemented through this Programme, to identify proposed measures to be set out in the FRMPs (see Section 5.2.8). Detailed application of step 4 will need to be applied at a project-level that may involve refinement of the proposed measures set out in the FRMPs. The design of flood risk management measures may take different approaches based on the foreseen long-term flood risk management strategy for a community or area, and the type of measure. A design approach of 'No Provision' is where a measure is designed for the existing flood regime with no specific provision for future enhancement or amendment. This approach might be applied where the adaptation strategy for the community or area involves other measures to cater for the potential increase in flood risk; The 'Adaptive' approach to design involves building or implementing a measure to address the existing flood regime, but with specific design provision to permit low-cost enhancement or amendment to address potential future flood regimes; or Page 50 of 68

63 An 'Assumptive' approach involves design to an assumed potential future flood regime. This might be applied where the long-term strategy requires the measure to cater for potential futures but where low-cost enhancement or amendment of the measure is not possible (e.g., culverts and bridges). A long-term flood risk management strategy for a community or area that is based on an adaptive management approach may involve different mixes of the above design approaches for individual measures within the strategy. Adaptation Action C.4 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, Ongoing: Decisions on short-term investment in flood risk management measures should include a detailed review and determination of the most robust, 'no regrets' strategy and design, taking account of the range of future investments that may be necessary depending on how the impacts of climate change are manifested with respect to flood risk. Adaptation Action C.5 (Planning, Design and Implementation) Local Authorities, Ongoing: Proposals submitted under the Minor Works Programme should take account of the potential impacts of climate change to ensure that any measures proposed are adaptable to possible future changes. The adaptation action for future flood relief schemes that needs to be implemented through the National CFRAM Programme is set out under section below Flood Risk Prevention The Guidelines on the Planning System and Flood Risk Management (DECLG & OPW, 2009), as outlined in Section provide a clear, transparent framework for forward planning and development management with due consideration of flood risk. The guidance on zoning is based on existing risk, but with a recommendation that a precautionary approach be taken to potential future risk including the potential impacts of climate change, stating that A Precautionary approach should be applied, where necessary, to reflect uncertainties in flooding datasets and the ability to predict the future climate, and that Development should be designed with careful consideration to possible future changes in flood risk, including the effects of climate change so that future occupants are not subject to unacceptable risks. This approach, of assuming current conditions but taking account of potential future conditions, is necessary due to the uncertainty as to what the future changes to the flooding regime will be. However, it is this uncertainty that equally makes provision for future change difficult to implement efficiently and effectively, and it is not possible to define a prescribed set of measures to implement the precautionary approach that would be applicable in all locations. Notwithstanding this, there are a range of options that can be considered and implemented as appropriate in a given location, taking account of the potential future changes to the flooding regime and the Flood Zones as defined in the guidelines: Leave potential future floodplains clear of development (e.g., de-zone areas, zoning areas as green space or as recreational playing fields, requiring potentially higher-risk lands in future scenarios to be zoned as green space within a zoned parcel of land, etc.); Define minimum floor levels such that potential future increase in flood extent and level will not cause internal flooding; Page 51 of 68

64 Ensure that sufficient space is provided and kept free of development to permit the construction of flood defences in the future, if necessary; Ensure that access and egress to a zoned / developed area will still be possible in a safe manner during floods, under potential future flooding regimes; and Ensure that land-use/development is adaptable to become either flood resilient or resistant in the future, or to convert to a lower vulnerability land use. Which of the above measures, individually or in combination, are most appropriate for a given area will depend heavily on the local context and the potential increase in flood extent, depth and level. However, such information on potential future flooding can be derived through an appropriate flood risk assessment (see Section 2.1), if not provided through the CFRAM Programme, and this can be used to inform decisionmaking and suitable adaptation requirements within planning and development management. Where regeneration or development in or around town centres is deemed necessary in flood prone areas, and has been deemed appropriate through the Justification Test as set out in the Guidelines, then consideration of suitable flood risk management measures for the development should take account of potential future increases in flood extents and levels. This includes areas that may currently benefit from flood protection, where the standard of protection may fall in the future, as discussed in Section Adaptation Action C.6 (Planning, Design and Implementation) Planning Authorities & Developers, Ongoing: Ensure that potential future flood information is obtained and/or generated through a Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) that is then used to inform suitable adaptation requirements within planning and development management in line with the Guidelines on the Planning System and Flood Risk Management (DoECLG & OPW, 2009). Consideration needs to be given to the potential for increased intensity of rainfall when designing drainage systems and urban storm water drainage systems for new development. This is discussed further in Section Flood Risk Preparedness, Response and Resilience As non-structural measures, flood risk preparedness, response and resilience are inherently adaptable, although in some areas of this activity action will be required to develop and implement adaptability; most notably in community resilience. The report from the Inter-Departmental Flood Policy Coordination Group, due in Spring 2016, will set out for Government effective sectoral supports and policy measures in their areas of responsibility that will promote and address community and individual response to flooding risk. Public awareness of flood risk and preparedness for flood events is currently being promoted by the OPW and the Office of Emergency Planning (OEP) through the 'Plan, Prepare, Protect' and 'Be Winter Ready' campaigns. These initiatives should be cognisant of and highlight the potential impacts of climate change to promote community resilience. While in the future, the OPW will be cognisant of and highlight the potential impacts of climate change to promote community resilience through these initiatives, the role of the OPW in promoting community resilience for flooding will be informed by any strategic approach to fostering community resilience for all adverse events. Page 52 of 68

65 Adaptation Action D.1 (Capacity Building) Cross-Government, Ongoing: Implement the recommendations of the report of the Inter-Departmental Flood policy Co-ordination Group, due in Summer Adaptation Action C.7 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, Ongoing: Maintain and update on an ongoing basis the National Flood Event Database ( Flood forecasting and warning greatly enhances the ability of the public and emergency response authorities to prepare effectively for and respond to flood events, and to reduce the damage caused by flood events. The benefits of flood forecasting and warning will increase in line with the projected increase in flood risk due to the impacts of climate change. The existing flood forecasting and warning systems should hence be maintained and improved, where possible. Implementation of the recommendations of the National Strategic Review of Options for Flood Forecasting and Warning should be progressed to realise these benefits. Adaptation Action C.8 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, Relevant Local Authorities, Ongoing: Maintain, and where possible improve, the operation of existing flood forecasting and warning systems, including the Tide and Storm Surge Forecasting Service. Adaptation Action C.9 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW / DECLG / DPER, Ongoing: Identify the benefits and resources required to develop, on a phased basis, a national flood forecasting and flood warning service, for decision by Government. The Local Authorities, under the oversight of the DECLG, are responsible for the preparation of Flood Event Emergency Response Plans and, along with other frontline responders, for the emergency response to flood events. These Plans will be informed by the current understanding of flood risk and will need to be updated on a regular basis as the degree of flood risk, and/or our understanding of that risk (through the National CFRAM Programme, the review of the PFRA and other future assessments), changes. As the flood risk changes, the resources required for effective response to flood events may need to be increased, although it should be noted that this will evolve slowly over the long-term. Adaptation Action C.10 (Planning, Design and Implementation) Local Authorities & DECLG, Ongoing: Ensure that flood event emergency response plans are reviewed on a regular basis to reflect the degree of flood risk and/or our understanding of that risk, including the resource capacity required to provide an effective response The National PFRA and CFRAM Programme The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) involves an indicative screening of flood risk throughout the country to identify areas of potentially significant flood risk that require further assessment (the 'AFAs'). The PFRA addresses all sources of flooding that could give rise to significant flood risk. The PFRA is a requirement of the EU 'Floods' Directive, and must be reviewed in 2018 and every six years thereafter, taking account of the potential impacts of climate change. This will provide a regular assessment of the national vulnerability to the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk. Page 53 of 68

66 Adaptation Action B.5 (Assessment) - OPW, 2018: Review of the National PFRA including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change to provide a regular assessment of the national vulnerability to the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk. Further adaptation actions have been defined under Sections and for future cycles of the PFRA, with regards to the standard of protection of Land Commission and Arterial Drainage Scheme Embankments. The National CFRAM Programme involves detailed assessment of flood risk in the AFAs, identified by the PFRA that was completed in 2011 under the first cycle of implementation of the EU 'Floods' Directive. This will provide a detailed assessment of the vulnerability of the relevant communities and areas to the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk. The Programme will also implement the steps of the adaptive management approach to developing long-term flood risk management strategies, and the outline design of short-term measures within the defined strategies, for each community or area, as set out for future flood relief schemes under Section The preparation of the FRMPs needs to be undertaken in coordination with the preparation of the River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) under the WFD, which is particularly important when considering options, including Natural Water Retention Measures, that can counter-act the effects of climate change by decreasing runoff and increasing groundwater recharge. The FRMPs will undergo SEA and as part of that SEA, potential adverse cumulative and in-combination environmental effects will be assessed and taken into account when considering and selecting particular adaptation measures in the respective FRMPs. Adaptation Action B.1 (Assessment) OPW, 2016: Assessment and publication of flood hazard and risk mapping for the MRFS and HEFS for the AFAs through the National CFRAM Programme. Adaptation Action C.1 (Planning, Design and Implementation) OPW, 2016: Flood risk management strategies and outline designs for potential flood risk management measures are to be developed through the National CFRAM Programme based on the adaptive management approach, in coordination with the preparation of the RBMPs, and set out in the FRMPs. Adaptation Action B.6 (Assessment) OPW, 2019 and Ongoing: Assessment and publication of flood hazard and risk mapping for areas of potentially significant risk identified through future cycles of the PFRA. Further actions have been defined under Section for the current and future cycles of the implementation of the EU 'Floods' Directive with regards of reviewing the existing and potential future standards of protection of existing flood relief schemes and defining the appropriate adaptation options for such schemes, and for the review and development of strategies and measures for other AFAs identified through future cycles of the PFRA. Page 54 of 68

67 5.2.9 Urban Storm-water Management As set out in Section 2.3.9, the Local Authorities are required, once designated, to implement the requirements of the EU 'Floods' Directive with respect to flooding due to urban storm water. This includes a review of the PFRA by the end of 2018 and, where areas of potentially significant flood risk are identified, to prepare flood maps and define measures to reduce or manage the flood risk that will be included in the relevant FRMP. The review of the PFRA needs to take account of the potential impacts of climate change. Adaptation Action B.7 (Assessment) Local Authorities, 2018 and Ongoing: Review of the PFRA with respect to existing urban storm water flooding, including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change and, where relevant, prepare flood maps and assess measures, where reasonably possible, to reduce or manage the flood risk from urban storm water management systems. As the planning authorities responsible for ensuring sustainable development, and with powers to levy rates for necessary infrastructure related to new development, the Local Authorities should ensure that appropriate conditions are applied to ensure that the urban storm water drainage systems for new developments are adaptable to the potential future impacts of climate change. This may include storage ponds, permeable paving to reduce runoff and other forms of sustainable drainage systems, as well as considering the conveyance and storage capacity of traditional piped systems. Irish Water has a role in avoiding future urban storm-water flooding by managing future connections to existing networks. Adaptation Action C.11 (Planning, Design and Implementation) Local Authorities, in Consultation with Irish Water, Ongoing: The requirements for urban storm water drainage systems for new development should take into account the potential future impacts of climate change, including consideration of the use of sustainable drainage systems Management of Flood Risk from Infrastructural Assets As set out in Section , the owners of infrastructural assets that could give rise to flooding or flood risk are required, once designated, to implement the requirements of the EU 'Floods' Directive with respect to flooding from those assets. This includes a review of the PFRA by the end of 2018 and, where areas of potentially significant flood risk are identified, to prepare flood maps and define measures to reduce or manage the flood risk that will be included in the relevant FRMP. The review of the PFRA needs to take account of the potential impacts of climate change. Adaptation Action B.8 (Assessment) Local Authorities, ESB, Waterways Ireland and Irish Water, 2018 and Ongoing: Review of the PFRA with respect to existing infrastructural assets that could give rise to flooding or flood risk, including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change, and where relevant, prepare flood maps and assess measures to reduce or manage the flood risk from those assets. Where the relevant authorities or bodies develop further infrastructure, they should design any new assets to make provision for, and be adaptable to the potential future impacts of climate change. Page 55 of 68

68 Adaptation Action C.12 (Planning, Design and Implementation) Local Authorities, Irish Water, ESB and Waterways Ireland, Ongoing: The planning and design of future assets should take into account, and be adaptable to, the potential future impacts of climate change RESEARCH AND CAPACITY BUILDING As identified in Section 4, there remains, and will continue to remain for the foreseeable future, considerable uncertainty with respect to the potential impacts of climate change on the drivers of flooding, and hence on flood hazard and risk. However, further research can improve our understanding of plausible or more likely future scenarios, and hence improve our understanding of potential climate change impacts and the associated vulnerability of communities and areas around the country to potential future changes. This, in turn, can inform appropriate adaptation planning and action Research There are certain information needs that, if addressed, can improve our understanding of potential flood risk futures, and hence enhance our adaptation efforts. These include: The likely and feasible maximum range of changes in climatic parameters relevant to flooding, in particular: o o Extreme rainfall projections at a fine temporal and spatial resolution; Projections of factors influencing sea levels, storm surge events and wave set-up; Improve our understanding of the response of different catchments and catchment characteristics to changes in rainfall patterns; Application of likely and feasible maximum changes in climatic parameters to Irish Catchments, taking account of their characteristics, to determine the possible future fluvial flood hazard to Irish communities; Application of likely and feasible maximum changes in climatic parameters on sea levels, storm surge events and wave set-up to determine the possible future coastal flood hazard to Irish communities; Application of likely and feasible maximum changes in extreme short duration rainfall events to determine the possible future pluvial flood hazard to Irish communities; Application of likely and feasible maximum changes in climatic parameters to Irish Catchments, taking account of their characteristics, to determine the possible future groundwater flood hazard to Irish communities; and Assessment of the flood risk and vulnerability of Irish communities through modelling of a range of likely and feasible maximum changes in flood hazard. The last of these information needs can be implemented by the OPW as part of the review of the PFRA for 2018 (see Section 5.2.8). Adaptation Action A.3 (Research) OPW, EPA & Met Eireann, Ongoing: Address information needs to improve adaptation to potential flood risk futures through research on the drivers of change to the climatic parameters related to flooding and on how such changes will manifest in changes in flood hazard. Page 56 of 68

69 In addition to research on climate change impacts relating to flood risk management outlined above, applied adaptation research (e.g. pilot projects or practical demonstrations) should address communication and dissemination. New methodologies will need to be developed on how to improve communication around climate change and to reach targeted stakeholders (e.g., local communities) in order to raise their awareness of their need to take action. As adaptive capacity is related to socio-economic conditions which ties in with future vulnerabilities, this research should link to a multi-disciplinary project including social scientists. Further research would also be beneficial to inform cost-effective decision-making for adaptation under the uncertainty associated with the potential futures for flooding. Adaptation Action A.4 (Research) OPW, EPA & Local Authorities, Ongoing: Address information needs to improve adaptation to potential flood risk futures through research on communication and community awareness and action in adaptive flood risk management and on decision-making under uncertainty for dissemination through the 'Climate Ireland' web platform Capacity Building In the context of climate change, capacity building is developing the technical skills and institutional capabilities to adapt to a changing climate (IPCC, 2014). An organisation with adaptive capacity has the ability to craft and adopt new means to achieve its goals as circumstances change. The OPW needs its staff, partners and local communities to have adaptive capacity if it is to achieve its mission in the effective management of flood risk in the face of climate change. The OPW will need to build an internal adaptive capacity through ongoing training and staff development. Equipped with an understanding of expected climate-change and adaptation approaches, relating to flood risk management and provided with and trained on how to use new decision-support tools, the OPW will be able to incorporate climate change adaptation into their plans and decisions. OPW training programmes, which should include capacity building for partners and local communities, that are focused on climate adaptation will need to be developed and evolve over time. The OPW will design and implement a training programme for its staff and its partners focused on topics relevant to the OPW mission. One goal of this training will be to increase awareness about the importance of climate change adaptation, and to encourage all OPW staff and partners to consider the potential impacts of climate change in the normal course of business. A second goal of the training will be to expose its staff and partners to specific approaches and tools for integrating climate adaptation into decision-making processes. Adaptation Action D.2 (Capacity Building) OPW, Ongoing: Strengthen the adaptive capacity of OPW staff and partners through collaboration and training MONITORING, REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF THE PLAN Tracking and measuring progress towards a stated goal provides information about the efficacy of the actions taken; provides a way to share information and lessons learned with others; and provides transparency to stakeholders. It is preferable to measure outcomes rather than outputs, but outcomes in relation to climate change adaptation will often take many years to realise and may be hard to quantify. Process-based indicators, that seek to monitor key stages that lead to Page 57 of 68

70 choices about end points or outcomes can hence be used to ensure that defined actions are being implemented to promote a culture of, and capacity for, adaptation, and that adaptation is embedded in flood risk management processes. Outcome-Based Indicators The focus of the indicators will depend on the desired purpose of the evaluation which can be: To evaluate the impact of adaptation measures; To evaluate the success of the adaptation policies and inform future policy development; and To evaluate the standard of adaptation applied. Climate impacts are, however, locally variable. Generic outcome indicators are not currently identified that would be applicable to all areas. The OPW intends to work to develop a set of outcome-based indicators. One challenge will be how to evaluate an outcome-based indicator that reflects the benefits (damages avoided) of adaptation actions, given the long-term nature of climate change and the uncertainty of projections. Options for such indicators may include analysis of how proposed measures within the CFRAM FRMPs scored when appraised against the climate change adaptation criteria within the Multi-Criteria Analysis that is used to determine preferred measures for a given location, to demonstrate that adaptable flood risk management measures and strategies are being pursued. Process-Based Indicators Indicators should reflect that the actions set out under this Plan have been taken. Process-based monitoring indicators for the life of the current Plan will include: Timely implementation of the actions of the Sectoral Adaptation Plan; Demonstration that climate change cognisance and adaptation has become an embedded component of flood risk management programmes, strategies and projects. This includes: o o Inclusion of requirements to integrate adaptation into the decision-making process for all project briefs for flood relief scheme projects Confirmation that adaptation has been appropriately integrated in all flood relief scheme projects, including those developed under the National CFRAM Programme, through scheme design and reports; and Training for OPW staff in climate change impacts and adaptation actions. Adaptation Action E.2 (Monitoring & Review) OPW, 2019: Progress reports will be prepared at three yearly intervals (first due in 2019), or as otherwise required under new legislation or EU requirements, on the implementation of this Plan and progress in integrating adaptation into flood risk management. While the above indicators are deemed acceptable for the current adaptation planning cycle, the monitoring of progress in adaptation, and defining appropriate progress indicators will require further development. The current EPA research call for the 'Adaptation Preparedness Indicator' study, and wider EU assessments and knowledge-sharing should assist in the development of appropriate indicators for monitoring and reporting. Page 58 of 68

71 Adaptation Action E.1 (Monitoring & Review) OPW, : Develop indicators to assess effectiveness and implementation of adaptation within the flood risk management sector, with reporting on same in the next Plan. Ireland has certain reporting requirements to the UNFCCC and the EU with respect to climate change adaptation. The development of indicators for the flood risk management sector will be tailored to address these needs. Page 59 of 68

72 6. ADAPTATION FOR OTHER SECTORS WITH RESPECT TO FLOOD RISK As noted in Section 2.4, flooding is a cross-sectoral issue that can affect all aspects of life, and that can be influenced, positively or detrimentally, by actions in many other sectors. Assessments of existing and potential future changes in flood hazard and risk, and of the vulnerability of communities and areas to potential changes, are to be developed and regularly reviewed and updated by the OPW through the National PFRA and the National CFRAM Programme, as described herein. The National CFRAM Programme is focussing on the AFAs identified through the National PFRA, and, through detailed modelling and assessment will produce flood maps for each AFA for the Mid-Range Future Scenario (MRFS) and the High-End Future Scenario (HEFS) as well as the current scenario (see Action B.1). The next review of the PFRA will be completed in 2018 and must take account of climate change, which will provide a national, indicative assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard and risk (see Action B.2). The outcomes of the above assessments, including flood maps, vulnerability assessments and, for identified AFAs, flood flows and levels, will be made available through the National flood mapping portal and be accessible through the EPA climate change adaptation portal; Climate Ireland. Adaptation Action D3 (Capacity Building) OPW & EPA, Ongoing: OPW to make available relevant information for access and dissemination through 'Climate Ireland' web platform. It is recommended that other sectors consider flood risk as part of their adaptation processes, making use of the information that has been and will be available as set out above, and the adaptation options described herein for addressing the potential impacts of climate change on flooding and flood risk. It is recommended that a sequential and precautionary approach be adopted with respect to flood risk in the preparation and implementation of other adaptation plans, whereby potentially vulnerable development and assets are not placed in flood prone areas and then defended, but rather avoid the potential risk altogether, taking account of the range of potential futures. It is recommended that building resilience to potential future changes in the flood regime be considered in the preparation of adaptation plans, whereby systems, assets and communities, and particularly the functions and services provided by critical infrastructure, are maintained in the event of flood events that may be more extreme than those experienced in the past or projected on the basis of the current scenario. For the Sectoral Adaptation Plans, this consideration should include the projected increase in risk to existing assets and how these assets might be adapted to continue to function effectively, and also the planning, development and design of future systems and assets. The Local Adaptation Plans will need to consider how to achieve sustainable planning in face of potentially increasing flood hazard. Page 60 of 68

73 Local Authorities might, in the preparation of Local Adaptation Plans, consider defining actions that will help develop an awareness among planners of the potential impacts of climate change and how to consider such impacts in the preparation of planning documents, and also among communities to promote resilience to current and potential future flood risk. Adaptation Action F.1 (Adaptation Planning & Governance) Local Authorities, All Sectors, 2015 and Ongoing: Local Adaptation Plans, and Adaptation Plans for other Sectors, should take account of the potential impact of climate change on flooding and the effects the foreseen increases in flooding and flood risk may have locally and on each Sector, and also how adaptation decisions taken locally and in other sectors may impact on flooding and flood risk. This would benefit from ongoing information exchange and coordination through cross-sectoral fora such as the Adaptation Steering Group convened by DCELG. The Local Adaptation Plans should in turn inform the Development and Local Area Plans to help promote sustainable development (see Section and Action C.6). Page 61 of 68

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75 7. SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN The actions set out herein are subject to the availability of resources to each relevant organisation within their future budgetary provisions. Table 7.1: Summary of Adaptation Actions REF. ACTION WHO WHEN Research A.1 Improve, through research, the understanding of likely future changes in seasonal and shortduration rainfall patterns and the frequency of occurrence and severity of weather storms to inform future assessments. A.2 Assess, through research, the impacts of future changes in seasonal and short-duration rainfall patterns on land saturation and water-logging, and resultant effects on farming. A.3 Address information needs to improve adaptation to potential flood risk futures through research on the drivers of change to the climatic parameters related to flooding and on how such changes will manifest in changes in flood hazard. A.4 Address information needs to improve adaptation to potential flood risk futures through research on communication and community awareness and action in adaptive flood risk management and on decision-making under uncertainty for dissemination through the 'Climate Ireland' web platform. EPA, Met. Eireann DAFM OPW, EPA & Met Eireann OPW, EPA & Local Authorities Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Page 63 of 68

76 Assessment B.1 Assessment and publication of flood hazard and risk mapping for the MRFS and HEFS for the AFAs through the National CFRAM Programme. B.2 Potential impacts of climate change on the standard of protection for existing flood relief schemes to be reviewed as part of National CFRAM Programme. B.3 As part of the review of the PFRA, assess, based on available and readily-derivable information, the existing and potential future standard of protection and benefits of the Land Commission embankments. B.4 As part of the review of the PFRA, assess the existing standard of protection and condition and benefits of the Arterial Drainage Scheme Embankments, and assess the costs, benefits, merits and impacts of maintenance or improvement of the embankments to inform future work. B.5 Review of the National PFRA including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change to provide a regular assessment of the national vulnerability to the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk. OPW 2016 OPW 2016 OPW & DAFM 2018 OPW 2018 OPW 2018 B.6 Assessment and publication of flood hazard and risk mapping for areas of potentially significant risk identified through future cycles of the PFRA. B.7 Review of the PFRA with respect to existing urban storm water flooding, including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change, and where relevant, prepare flood maps and assess measures, where reasonably possible, to reduce or manage the flood risk from urban storm water management systems. B.8 Review of the PFRA with respect to existing infrastructural assets that could give rise to flooding or flood risk, including assessment of the potential impacts of climate change, and where relevant, prepare flood maps and assess measures to reduce or manage the flood risk from those assets. OPW Local Authorities Local Authorities, ESB, Waterways Ireland, Irish Water 2019 & Ongoing 2018 & Ongoing 2018 & Ongoing Page 64 of 68

77 Planning, Design and Implementation C.1 Flood risk management strategies and outline designs for potential flood risk management measures are to be developed through the National CFRAM Programme based on the adaptive management approach, in coordination with the preparation of the RBMPs, and set out in the FRMPs. C.2 Identify, as part of the preparation of the FRMPs being produced under the National CFRAM Programme, additional hydrometric monitoring needs with respect to monitoring or assessing the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk for vulnerable communities. C.3 Appropriate adaptation options for each existing flood relief scheme to be assessed in the review of the first FRMPs, with any necessary measures to be set out in the second cycle FRMPs. OPW 2016 OPW 2016 OPW C.4 Decisions on short-term investment in flood risk management measures should include a detailed review and determination of the most robust, 'no regrets' strategy and design, taking account of the range of future investments that may be necessary depending on how the impacts of climate change are manifested with respect to flood risk. C.5 Proposals submitted under the Minor Works Programme should take account of the potential impacts of climate change to ensure that any measures proposed are adaptable to possible future changes. C.6 Ensure that potential future flood information is obtained and/or generated through a Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) that is then used to inform suitable adaptation requirements within planning and development management in line with the Guidelines on the Planning System and Flood Risk Management (DoECLG & OPW, 2009). C.7 Maintain and update on an ongoing basis the National Flood Event Database ( OPW Local Authorities Planning Authorities & Developers OPW Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Page 65 of 68

78 C.8 Maintain, and where possible improve, the operation of existing flood forecasting and warning systems, including the Tide and Storm Surge Forecasting Service. C.9 Identify the benefits and resources required to develop, on a phased basis, a national flood forecasting and flood warning service, for decision by Government. C.10 Ensure that flood event emergency response plans are reviewed on a regular basis to reflect the degree of flood risk and/or our understanding of that risk, including the resource capacity required to provide an effective response. C.11 The requirements for urban storm water drainage systems for new development should take into account the potential future impacts of climate change, including consideration of the use of sustainable drainage systems. C.12 The planning and design of future assets should take into account, and be adaptable to, the potential future impacts of climate change. Capacity Building D.1 Implement the recommendations of the report of the Inter-Departmental Flood policy Coordination Group, due in Summer OPW, Relevant Local Authorities OPW, DECLG & DPER Local Authorities & DECLG Local Authorities Local Authorities, Irish Water, ESB & Waterways Ireland Cross-Government Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing D.2 Strengthen the adaptive capacity of OPW staff and partners through collaboration and training. OPW Ongoing D.3 OPW to make available relevant information for access and dissemination through 'Climate Ireland' web platform. OPW, EPA Ongoing Page 66 of 68

79 Monitoring & Review E.1 Develop indicators to assess effectiveness and implementation of adaptation within the flood risk management sector, with reporting on same in the next Plan. E.2 Progress reviews will be undertaken at three yearly intervals (end of 2016 and 2019), or as otherwise required under new legislation or EU requirements, on the implementation of this Plan and progress in integrating adaptation into flood risk management. OPW OPW 2019 Adaptation Planning & Governance F.1 Local Adaptation Plans, and Adaptation Plans for other Sectors, should take account of the potential impact of climate change on flooding and the effects the foreseen increases in flooding and flood risk may have locally and on each Sector, and also how adaptation decisions taken locally and in other sectors may impact on flooding and flood risk. This would benefit from ongoing information exchange and coordination through cross-sectoral fora such as the Adaptation Steering Group convened by DCELG. Local Authorities, All Sectors 2015 and Ongoing Page 67 of 68

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81 REFERENCES BASE, Challenges to planning climate adaptation strategies in Europe Broderick, C., Murphy, C., 'Catchment hydrology under future climate scenarios'. In: Marine Institute (eds.) RESCALE: Review and Simulate Climate and Catchment Responses at Burrishoole, Technical Report'. Marine Research Sub Programme , Marine Institute: Ireland. Church J.A., and White N., A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophysical. Research Letters, Vol. 33, L Church J.A., and White N., Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century. Surv Geophys Vol 32, pp COM, Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster Risk in the EU {SWD(2014) 134 final} COM, An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change. {SWD(2013 ) 216 final}. COM, Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for Action. {SWD(2009 ) 147 final}. COM, Green paper from the commission to the council, the European parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the committee of the regions adapting to climate change in Europe options for EU action {SWD(2007) 354 final}. DECLG/OPW, Guidelines on the Planning System and Flood Risk Management DECLG, National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. DECLG, 2014: Ireland s Sixth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. DEFRA, FCDPAG3, Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance: Economic Appraisal. Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H., Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability Clim Dyn 38 Devoy, R.J.N., Coastal vulnerability and the implications of sea-level rise for Ireland. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), De Winter, R.C., Sterl, A., de Vries J., Weber, S.L., Ruessink, G., The effect of climate change on extreme waves in front of the Dutch coast. Ocean Dynamics DOI /s

82 Dunne, S., Hanafin, J., Lynch,P., McGrath, R., Nishimura,E., Nolan, P., Ratnam, J.V., Semmler, T., Sweeney, C. and Wang, S Ireland in a Warmer World, Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate in the Twenty-First Century. ( R. McGrath and P. Lynch, eds.), Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland. Dwyer, N., and Devoy, R., Sea Level In: Dwyer, N. ed. The Status of Irelands Climate, EPA, Sweeney et al., ERTDI Report Series No. 15, Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts for Ireland. Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford. EPA, 2013a. Coastal Climate Adaptation in Ireland: Assessing current conditions and enhancing the capacity for climate resilience in local coastal management (2008-CCRP 3.6) Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford. EPA, 2013b. Co-ordination, Communication and Adaptation for Climate Change in Ireland: an Integrated Approach (COCOADAPT) (2007-CCRP-2.2.6a) Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford. EPA, 2013c. Murphy et al, Hydrodetect (2010-CCRP-DS-2.2) Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford. European Communities, Implementation strategy for the water framework directive (2000/60/ec) technical report guidance document no. 24 river basin management in a changing climate. EU, Directive 2007/60/EC on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risk. Official Journal of the European Communities L288 of 6 th November 2007, p.27. Flood, S and Sweeney, J Quantifying impacts of potential sea-level rise scenarios on Irish coastal cities. In: Otto- Zimmermann, K (ed) Resilient Cities Springer, London. Gallagher, S., Tiron, R., Dias, F., 'Predicting the future wave climate of Ireland: ' In Gleeson, E., McGrath, R., and Treanor, M., Irelands Climate the Road Ahead. Met Eireann. Government of Ireland. Arterial Drainage Maintenance Act (1945). Dublin: Stationary Office. Government of Ireland. Arterial Drainage Maintenance Act (1995). Dublin: Stationary Office. Government of Ireland. S.I. 122 of 2010 European Communities (Assessment and Management of Flood Risks) Regulations Dublin: Stationary Office. Hall, J., Murphy C., and Sweeney J, Robust Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in Ireland. EPA, CCRP report no.16. HR Wallingford, Tsunamis - Assessing the Hazard for the UK and Irish Coasts.

83 IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea,T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC, 2012: Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J.C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth P.L., Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., and Moore, J.C., Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100, Environmental Research Letters, Joint Research Centre, Climate Impacts in Europe The JRC PESETA II Project. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Larrimore Ouellette, L., Braman D & Mandel, G., 2012 The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks Nature Climate Change doi: /nclimate1547 Kundzewicz, Z.W., et al., Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 1 28 Menéndez M., and Woodworth P.L., Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasiglobal tidegauge data set. Journal Of Geophysical Research, Vol Mott McDonald Ltd, Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment, The Predictive Assessment of Potentially Significant Flood Risk. Murphy, C Climate change and catchment hydrology. In Gleeson et al, Irelands Climate the Road Ahead. Met Eireann. Murphy, C. and Charlton, R 'Climate Change and Water Resources in Ireland'. In: Sweeney, J. (eds.) Climate Change: Refining the Impacts, Environmental Protection Agency: Ireland Nolan G, Gillooly M, Whelan K. (eds) Irish Ocean Climate and Ecosytem Status Report Marine Institute, Galway, Ireland.

84 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Extreme Weather Events in Europe:preparing for climate change adaptation. OEP, A National Risk Assessment for Ireland. Olbert, A.I., Dabrowski, T., Nash, S., Hartnett, M., Regional modelling of the 21 st century climate changes in the Irish Sea. Continental Shelf Research, 41, pp OPW, Report of the National Flood Policy Review Group. OPW, Main Overview Report - Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment. PWC, Arterial Drainage Maintenance Programme Report on Measurement of Return of Investment, Price Waterhouse Coopers & Ferguson McIlveen, Ireland. Sweeney & Fealy, ICARUS, Downscaling Global Climate Models for Ireland: Providing Future Climate Scenarios. Steele-Dunne S., Lynch P, McGrath R, Semmler T., Wang S., Hanafin J, Nolan P., The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland Journal of Hydrology 356, pp Walsh S and Dwyer N Rainfall In: Dwyer, N. ed. The Status of Irelands Climate, Whetton. P, Hennessy. K., Clarke, J., McInnes, K., & Kent, D., Use of Representative Climate Futures in Impact and Adaptation Assessment, Climatic Change (2012). Woodworth, P. L., Gregory, J. M. and Nicholls, R. J Long term sea level changes and their impacts. The global coastal ocean: multiscale interdisciplinary processes, Robinson A. R. and Brink K. H., eds. Woodworth P.L., and Blackman D.L., Evidence for Systematic Changes in Extreme High Waters since the Mid-1970s. American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate Vol 17.

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87 STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SCREENING REPORT Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management ( ) Determination of the need for strategic environmental assessment for the Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management prepared under the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework 2538_RP/001/E FRAM Section Office of Public Works Page A.3

88 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND 1.2 PURPOSE OF THE PLAN 1.3 SEA SCREENING PROCESS 2. SCREEING CHECK, STAGE ONE CONTENTS 3. ENVIONMENTAL SIGNIFICANT SCREENING, STAGE TWO 3.1 THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PLAN HAVING REGARD, IN PARTICULAR TO: CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EFFECTS AND OF THE AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY HAVING REGARDS TO: CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO CRITERIA NO INITIAL DETERMINATION 4. CONSULTATION 5. FINAL DETERMINATION APPENDIX A DECISION TREE APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS APPENDIX C DRAFT SCREENING REPORT COVER LETTER Page A.4

89 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND In December 2012 the Irish Government published the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (DECLG, 2012). It sets out Government policy for addressing climate change adaptation in Ireland, focussing on the key climate sensitive sectors. It mandates that certain Government Departments, other public sector bodies and Local Authorities prepare sectoral and local climate change adaptation plans. The Framework states that the sectoral plans will present evidence of a clear understanding and description of the risks presented by climate change to each sector, their vulnerability to such risks and actions both to address the risks and ensure the climate resilience of the sectors (DECLG, 2012). The Framework outlines that the sectoral plans should be revised every 5 years. The Office of Public Works (OPW) is responsible for producing the Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management. Greenhouse gas mitigation will be addressed, in parallel, through the National Low-Carbon Roadmap which will incorporate several sectoral roadmaps including the Built Environment. The OPW is a member of the Built Environment Working Group which is developing the Low Carbon Roadmap for the Built Environment Sector. The OPW is the lead agency for flood risk management in Ireland. The National Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme is central to the medium to long-term strategy for the reduction and management of flood risk in Ireland. The Programme delivers on core components of the National Flood Policy, adopted in 2004, and on the requirements of the EU Floods Directive. The National CFRAM programme is being carried out in parallel with similar programmes across the European Union. Under the National CFRAM programme, CFRAM Studies are being undertaken throughout the country. The outputs from the CFRAM Studies will be the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs). These FRMPs will set out the policies and potential measures, including guidance on appropriate future development, that should be pursued by the local authorities, the OPW and other stakeholders to achieve the most cost effective and sustainable management of flood risk within the study area taking account of the effects of climate change. Each measure will be assessed against four criteria; technical, economic, social and environmental. Scoring against these criteria helps to achieve the CFRAM Study objective of achieving the most cost effective and sustainable management of existing and potential future flood risk within the area being studied. A set of objectives are associated with each criteria. Page A.5

90 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) The degree to which a measure achieves each objective is an indication of the success of the measure in managing the flood risk. An objective on ensuring that flood risk management measures are adaptable to future flood risk is included under the technical criteria. 1.2 PURPOSE OF THE PLAN The Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management (hereafter referred to as the Plan ), is being prepared to satisfy the requirements of the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. It will set out the OPW policy on climate change adaptation in relation to flood risk management, based on a current understanding of the consequences of climate change for flood risk management in Ireland. The objectives and outputs of the Plan include: A review of the existing science relating to the potential impacts of climate change on flooding. An outline of the potential increase in flood hazard and flood risk, with links to locations of more detailed data, drawing on the work done under the National CFRAM Programme. Information on potential increases in flood risk for consideration by other sectors. Policies on climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied in the development of flood risk management (FRM) strategies and measures. The plan will not consider specific locations and nor propose projects or measures. Detailed adaptation approaches and measures, to a specified programme, will be set out in the FRMPs developed under the National CFRAM Programme. Each FRMP is undergoing SEA and Appropriate Assessment (AA). The Plan will not specify how other sectors should provide for potential changes in flood hazard and risk. It will provide information on the potential change for consideration by those sectors, and on activity in the flood risk management sector. The Plan will be revised every 5 years. A summary of adaptation actions is presented in Appendix B. Page A.6

91 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) 1.3 SEA SCREENING PROCESS The European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plan and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (S.I. No. 435 of 2004) (hereafter referred to as the SEA Regulations ), as amended by the European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plans and Programmes) (Amendment) Regulations, 2011 (S.I 200 of 2011), require the screening of individual plans or programmes, based on the criteria in Schedule 1 of the SEA Regulations. These criteria must be taken into account in determining whether or not significant effects on the environment would be likely to arise. The SEA screening process undertaken by the OPW is consistent with the process as recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) publication entitled Development of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Methodologies for Plans and Programmes in Ireland Synthesis Report (hereafter referred to as the EPA Publication ), specifically Stage 1 (Screening of Plans and Programmes). An Appropriate Assessment Screening Report is being produced in line with the requirements of Article 6(3) of the EU Habitats Directive (Directive 92/43/EEC). 2. SCREENING CHECK, STAGE ONE The first step of the validation process was to undertake a pre-screening check using the decision tree presented in Figure 2 of the EPA publication Development of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Methodologies for Plans and Programmes in Ireland. The decision tree is based on a series of administrative questions that allows rapid screening out of plans and programmes that are clearly not going to have an environmental impact, and screening-in of those that definitely do require an SEA. The decision tree and responses to the administrative questions as they apply to the Plan are presented in Appendix A. The outcome of the pre-screening stage is that the Plan does not require an SEA because it does not provide a framework for development consent for projects. 3. ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNIFICANT SCREENING, STAGE TWO The pre-screening process indicated that a SEA is not required for the Plan, however it was further assessed against the environmental criteria contained in Schedule 1 of the SEA Regulations. Page A.7

92 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) 3.1 THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PLAN HAVING REGARD, IN PARTICULAR TO: CRITERIA NO. 1 The degree to which the plan or programme, or modification to a plan or programme, sets a framework for projects and other activities, either with regard to the location, nature, size and operating conditions or by allocating resources. The purpose of the Plan is to set out the policy on climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. The Plan will not set a framework for future development consent of projects listed in Annexes I and II to the Environmental Impact Assessment Directive CRITERIA NO. 2 The degree to which the plan or programme, or modification to a plan or programme, influences other plans including those in a hierarchy. The Plan will draw on work already underway by the OPW, in particular the National CFRAM Programme. It has the potential to influence the following flood risk management programmes, however it will not consider specific locations nor propose projects or measures; National CFRAM Programme and implementation of the 'Floods Directive' Arterial drainage maintenance Coastal protection Each of these programmes is screened for SEA or EIA and AA, as appropriate. There are currently 29 SEAs underway as part of the National CFRAM programme CRITERIA NO. 3 The relevance of the plan or programme, or modification to a plan or programme, for the integration of environmental considerations in particular with a view to promoting sustainable development. The plan is aimed at integrating climate change into flood risk management with a view to promoting sustainable and climate resilient development. The embedding of climate change in the OPW business for flood risk management will be through the National CFRAM programme, which will undergo full SEA. The impact of the integration is therefore unlikely to result in significant environmental effects over and above those identified in the SEAs of the FRMPs. Page A.8

93 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) CRITERIA NO. 4 Environmental problems relevant to the plan or programme, or modification to a plan or programme. The Plan will set out the policy on climate change adaptation to be applied in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. Any detailed adaptation measures will be developed under the CFRAM studies which are undergoing full SEA CRITERIA NO. 5 The relevance of the plan or programme, or modification to a plan or programme, for the implementation of European Union Legislation on the Environment (Plans linked to Wastemanagement or Water Protection) Building awareness of, and capacity to adapt well to the impacts of climate change will positively support the OPW in achieving the objectives of the EU Floods Directive. 3.2 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EFFECTS AND OF THE AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED HAVING REGARD TO CRITERIA NO. 1 The probability, duration, frequency and reversibility of the effects The purpose of this Plan is to set out the policy on climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. The Plan will not set a framework for future development consent of projects listed in Annexes I and II to the Environmental Impact Assessment Directive. Detailed adaptation approaches and measures, for various locations, will be set out in the FRMPs developed under the National CFRAM Programme. Each FRMP is undergoing SEA and AA and all significant environmental affects will be assessed as part of these processes CRITERIA NO. 2 The cumulative nature of the effects The primary effect of this Plan will be to build capacity and strengthen ability to adapt well to the impacts of climate change on the flood risk management sector. The Plan will be implemented through existing OPW flood risk management programmes which undergo SEA. All significant environmental affects will be assessed as part of these SEAs. Page A.9

94 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) CRITERIA NO. 3 The transboundary nature of the effects This Plan sets out the policy on climate change adaptation to be pursued in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. As the Plan is not proposing any measures it is not anticipated that this plan on its own will be able to have significant effects CRITERIA NO. 4 The risk to human health or the environment (e.g. due to accidents) The risks to human health and the environment from climate change are potentially considerable. It is not anticipated that this plan on its own will be able to have significant effects on these issues as it is a policy document. Detailed adaptation approaches and measures will be set out in the FRMPs developed under the National CFRAM Programme which are undergoing SEA and AA CRITERIA NO. 5 The magnitude and spatial extent of the effects (geographical area and size of the population likely to be affected) The Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management will be national, but does not identify specific areas for development. Any detailed adaptation measures will be developed as part of the CFRAM Studies CRITERIA NO. 6 The value and vulnerability of the area likely to be affected due to: a) special natural characteristics or cultural heritage b) exceeded environmental quality standards or limit values c) intensive land-use The primary effect of this Plan will be to build capacity and strengthen ability to adapt well to the impacts of climate change on the flood risk management sector. The Plan will be national, but does not identify specific areas for development. Page A.10

95 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) CRITERIA NO. 7 The effects on areas or landscapes which have a recognised national, European Union or international protection status The purpose of this Plan is to set out the policy on climate change adaptation to be pursued and applied in the development of flood risk management strategies and measures. The Plan will be national, but does not identify specific areas for development INITIAL DETERMINATION Following the screening process, where the context of the Plan has been assessed against the prescreening check and the environmental significance criteria as set out in Schedule 1 of the SEA Regulations it is concluded that a full Strategic Environmental Assessment is not required for the following reasons: The Plan does not provide a framework for development consent for projects listed in the EIA Directive. The purpose of the Plan is to outline OPW policy on climate change adaptation in relation to the development of flood risk management strategies and measures but the Plan will not consider specific locations nor propose projects or measures. Detailed adaptation approaches and measures will be set out in the FRMPs which are undergoing SEA and AA. The Plan is not considered likely to have significant effects on the environment, therefore, an SEA is not required. 4. CONSULTATION S.I. 435 of 2004 and amending regulations (S.I. 200 of 2011) identify the following environmental authorities to be consulted with in determining whether or not an SEA is required: The Environmental Protection Agency The Minister for Environment, The Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, The Minister for Agriculture, Marine and Food, The Minister for Arts, Heritage and Gaeltacht Affairs. Page A.11

96 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) A hard copy of the Draft SEA Screening Report and a draft copy of the Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management together with a cover letter (See Appendix C) were sent to the environmental authorities on the 25 th May 2015 for consultation. The consultation period ran for 6 weeks until the 10 th of July A total of 3 submissions were received on the Draft SEA Screening Report; from DoECLG, DFAM and the EPA. The submissions made were duly considered and acted upon accordingly, as appropriate. 5. FINAL DETERMINATION The OPW, taking into account the submissions received from the environmental authorities, has concluded that a full Strategic Environmental Assessment is not required for the Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management ( ). In accordance with the requirements of the SEA Directive and S.I. 435 of 2004, as amended by S.I. 200 of 2011, the statutory environmental authorities are hereby notified of this determination. Notice of this decision, including a copy of this report, has also been made available for public inspection at the OPW offices in Trim and in 52 St. Stephens Green and on the OPW website. Page A.12

97 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) REFERENCES DECLG, 2012 National Climate Change Adaptation Framework. Environmental Protection Agency, 2003 Development of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Methodologies for Plans and Programmes in Ireland (2001-DS- EEP-2/5). Synthesis Report and associated Final Report. Report prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by ERM Environmental Resources Management Limited. European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plans and Programmes) Regulations 2004 (S.I. 435 of 2004). European Communities (Environmental Assessment of Certain Plans And Programmes) (Amendment) Regulations, 2011 (S.I. 200 of 2011). EU, Directive 2007/60/EC on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risk. Official Journal of the European Communities L288 of 6 th November 2007, p.27. Page A.13

98 SEA Screening Report Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan For Flood Risk Management ( ) (Blank Page) Page A.14

99 Appendix A - Decision Tree