2018 PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE AND MANAGING THE RISING FLOOD RISK

Transcription

1 Ireland Water 2018 PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE AND MANAGING THE RISING FLOOD RISK Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 25 th April, 2018

2 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT, OEP 2012 & 2017 Flooding: Joint No. 1 National Risk RECENT FLOODS November 2009: 1,600 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 250m October 2011: Nearly 1,700 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 130m Winter 2015/16: Over 500 Properties (Appx. 2,000 Properties under Threat)

3 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE : Rise of 190mm Current Rate of Rise: >3mm/yr 500mm Rise in MSL (MRFS) - Significant Increase in Tidal / Coastal Risk FLUVIAL, PLUVIAL & GROUNDWATER No Significant Signal for Change in Annual Rainfall Nationally Projected Wetter Winters / Warmer Summers Potential for Increase in Flooding

4 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT DRAINAGE OF AGRICULTURAL LAND: Drainage Districts / Arterial Drainage Schemes 1995 URBAN FLOOD PROTECTION: 42 Schemes Completed Appx. 9,500 Properties Protected: 350m with Appx. 1.9bn Benefits 8 Schemes in Construction & 25 Schemes in Design / Planning MINOR WORKS (2009): OPW funding of up to 750k to LAs Almost 500 Projects Completed Benefitting appx. 6,500 Properties

5 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY REVIEW: 2004 OPW: Lead Agency Proactive, Catchment-based Approach Flood Mapping Flood Risk Management Plans Flood Risk Management, rather than just Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes): Prevention Preparedness & Resilience Protection

6 EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE: 2007 KEY REQUIREMENTS Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) Flood Maps Flood Risk Management Plans OTHER PROVISIONS Coordination with WFD Implementation Trans-Boundary Co-operation Public Dissemination / Engagement 6-YEAR REVIEW CYCLE

7 PFRA BASED ON: Historical Records Predictive Hazard Assessment & Risk Analysis Stakeholder Consultation (Local Authorities) PUBLIC CONSULTATION COMPLETED AFAs

8 300 AFAs

9 CFRAM STUDIES CFRAM PROGRAMME Outcome of National Flood Policy Review, 2004 Flood Maps FRMPs Compatible with FD Requirements, 2007 Pilot Studies: Lee, Dodder, Fingal East Meath: National Programme:

10 SCOPE OF WORK Survey & Data Collection Hydrology (Incl. Use of FSU) Hydraulic Modelling Flood Mapping Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone & Various Risk Maps

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13 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS ( CFRAM PROGRAMME) Range of Flood Maps Produced Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone & Various Risk Maps Up to 8 Flood Event Probabilities Future Scenario Mapping 2 Representative Climate Futures

14 FLOOD MAPS - Detailed Mapping for 300 Communities - Appx. 4,000 kms River Channel - 90 Coastal Communities - Less Detailed Mapping for Appx. 2,500 kms - Informs: - Emergency Response Planning, - Community Resilience, - Sustainable Planning - NDP, NPF, NAF

15 CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs MEASURES FOR AFAs Screening & Option Development Line-&-Level Costed Unit Cost Database Consideration of Climate Change Appraisal Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA Benefit-Cost Ratio) Cost-Benefit Analysis (BCR) SEA / AA Public Consultation: Appx. 150 Public Consultation Days

16 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREVENTION Sustainable Planning & Devt. Management Guidelines: The Planning System and Flood Risk Management (OPW/DECLG, 2009) Supported by Ongoing OPW Advice Informed by CFRAM Flood Mapping Sustainable Planning Critical for Sustainable FRM

17 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREVENTION Sustainable Planning & Devt. Management Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems Voluntary Home Relocation Scheme Climate Change Adaptation Planning Integrated Catchment Management

18 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PROTECTION New Scheme Proposed in FRMPs Completion of Ongoing Schemes, and Maintenance of Existing Flood Relief Schemes Minor Works Scheme Maintenance of Drainage Schemes Maintenance of Other Channels

19 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREPAREDNESS & RESILIENCE Flood Forecasting & Warning National Flood Forecasting Centre Emergency Response Planning Promotion of Individual / Community Resilience Indiviudal Property Protection Flood Event Data Collection

20 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANS Finalisation of Plans Approved by Minister for PER Submission to Local Authorities

21 FUTURE WORK CAPITAL FLOOD RELIEF PRPOGRAMME Government Commitment Budget Allocation of Circa 1bn (NDP ) Annual Budget to Increase to 100m/yr Schemes In-Hand 8 Schemes in Construction, 25 in Design / Planning Schemes Proposed in Plans >100 Additional Schemes

22 FUTURE WORK ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE The CFRAM Programme Flood Mapping and Risk Assessment 2 Future Scenarios Assessment of Adaptability of Options Project-Level Assessement More Detailed Assessment and Design Managed Adaptive Approach Incl. Assumptive Allowances Revise / Update Sectoral Adaptation Plan

23 FUTURE WORK INTEGRATED CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT Natural Flood Management : Emerging Approach often Promoted Concerns / Issues to Address: Quantifying Projected Benefits Effectiveness in Large Events Practicality in Large Catchments Land Owner Engagement Benefit as Integrated Catchment Management Detailed Assessment at Project Scale

24 FUTURE WORK PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS Ongoing Implementation of Planning Guidelines Flood Forecasting and Warning National FFW Service in Development Emergency Response & Community Resilience Review of Emergency Response Plans, Informed by Flood Maps Build Community Resilience Property Resilience Home Relocation Scheme Pilot IPP Schemes

25 SUMMARY PROGRESS TO DATE 42 Flood Relief Schemes Completed, 33 In-Hand Implementation of National Flood Policy, 2004: Progress made on Prevention & Preparedness CFRAM Programme: Flood Maps, FRMPs FUTURE WORK NDP: Appx. 1bn to 2027 >100 Flood Relief Schemes Ongoing Development in Prevention & Preparedness Second Cycle of Floods Directive

26 Ireland Water 2018 PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE AND MANAGING THE RISING FLOOD RISK Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 25 th April, 2018