FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRELAND

Transcription

1 National Flood Management Conference 2018 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRELAND Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 15 th March, 2018 FLOOD RISK IN IRELAND NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT, OEP 2012 Flooding: Joint No. 1 National Risk RECENT FLOODS November 2009: >1,600 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 250m October 2011: Nearly 1,700 Properties, Insured Losses Circa 130m Winter 2015/16: Over 500 Properties (Appx. 2,000 Properties under Threat) 1

2 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE : Rise of 190mm Current Rate of Rise: >3mm/yr Significant Increase in Tidal / Coastal Risk for a 500mm Rise in MSL (MRFS) FLUVIAL, PLUVIAL & GROUNDWATER No Significant Signal for Change in Annual Rainfall Nationally Projected Wetter Winters / Warmer Summers Potential for Increase in Flooding HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT HISTORICAL CONTEXT Focus on Drainage for Improvement of Agricultural Land Land Commission Embankments (1800 s) Drainage Districts (Acts 1925, 1929) Minor Drainage Schemes Local Authorities Arterial Drainage Act, 1945 River-basin Arterial Drainage / Embankment Schemes OPW A.D. (Amendment) Act, 1995 Local, Urban Flood Protection Schemes OPW 2

3 HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT MAJOR FLOOD RELIEF SCHEMES: 42 Schemes Completed Appx. 9,500 Properties Protected Appx. 1.9bn NPV Benefits 8 Schemes in Construction & 25 Schemes in Design / Planning MINOR WORKS (2009): OPW funding of up to 750k to LAs Almost 500 Projects Completed Providing Benefits to appx. 6,500 Properties HISTORIC & POLICY CONTEXT NATIONAL FLOOD POLICY REVIEW: 2004 OPW: Lead Agency Proactive, Catchment-based Approach Flood Mapping Flood Risk Management Plans Flood Risk Management, rather than just Flood Protection (Flood Relief Schemes): Prevention Preparedness & Resilience Protection 3

4 EU FLOODS DIRECTIVE: 2007 KEY REQUIREMENTS Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) Flood Maps Flood Risk Management Plans OTHER PROVISIONS Coordination with WFD Implementation Trans-Boundary Co-operation Public Dissemination / Engagement 6-YEAR REVIEW CYCLE PRELIMINARY FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT (PFRA) BASED ON: Historical Records Predictive Hazard Assessment & Risk Analysis Stakeholder Consultation (Local Authorities) PUBLIC CONSULTATION COMPLETED AFAs 4

5 300 AFAs CFRAM STUDIES CFRAM PROGRAMME Outcome of National Flood Policy Review, 2004 Compatible with FD Requirements, 2007 Flood Maps FRMPs Pilot Studies: Lee, Dodder, Fingal East Meath: National Programme:

6 SCOPE OF WORK Survey & Data Collection Hydrology (Incl. Use of FSU) Hydraulic Modelling Flood Mapping Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone & Various Risk Maps 6

7 CFRAM STUDIES FLOOD MAPS ( CFRAM PROGRAMME) Range of Flood Maps Produced Extent, Depth, Velocity, Risk-to-Life, Flood Zone & Various Risk Maps Up to 8 Flood Event Probabilities Future Scenario Mapping 2 Representative Climate Futures 7

8 FLOOD MAPS - Detailed Mapping for 300 Communities - Appx. 4,000 kms River Channel - 90 Coastal Communities - Less Detailed Mapping for Appx. 2,500 kms Other Mapped River - Inform: - Emergency Response Planning, - Community Resilience, - Sustainable Planning CFRAM STUDIES FRMPs Optioneering for AFAs Screening & Option Development Line-&-Level Costed Unit Cost Database Consideration of Climate Change Appraisal Scoring Options Vs Range of Objectives Weighted MCA Benefit Score Cost-Benefit Analysis Public Consultation: Appx. 150 PCDs 8

9 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREVENTION Sustainable Planning & Devt. Management Guidelines: The Planning System and Flood Risk Management (OPW/DECLG, 2009) Supported by OPW Advice & Flood Mapping Sustainable Planning Critical for Sustainable FRM NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREVENTION Sustainable Planning & Devt. Management Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems Voluntary Home Relocation Scheme Climate Change Adaptation Planning Natural Flood Risk Management 9

10 NATIONWIDE MEASURES PROTECTION Minor Works Scheme Maintenance of Existing Flood Relief Schemes, and Completion of Ongoing Schemes Maintenance of AD / DD Schemes Maintenance of Other Channels NATIONWIDE MEASURES PREPAREDNESS & RESILIENCE Flood Forecasting & Warning National Flood Forecasting Centre Emergency Response Planning Promotion of Individual / Community Resilience Indiviudal Property Protection Flood Event Data Collection 10

11 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLANS Set Strategy for Effective, Sustainable Management of Flood Risk in Ireland Prevention Protection Preparedness & Resilience Finalisation of Plans Pending Approval by Minister for PER Submission to Local Authorities PROGRESS TO DATE PREVENTION, e.g., Planning Guidelines (2009), Home Relocation Scheme PROTECTION, e.g., Major Schemes (9,500 Properties, 1.9bn NPV Benefits) Minor Works Scheme (Appx. 6,500 Properties) PREPAREDNESS, e.g., Plan, Prepare, Protect (2005 & 2014) Past Flood Event Database (2006) Emergency Reponse Planning Guidance (2005 & 2014) Flood Forecasting and Warning Ongoing 11

12 FUTURE WORK CAPITAL FLOOD RELIEF PRPOGRAMME Government Commitment Budgets Allocation of Circa 1bn (NDP ) Annual Budget to Increase to 100m/yr Schemes In-Hand 8 Schemes in Construction, 25 in Design / Planning 12,000 Properties to be Protected Schemes Proposed in Plan >100 Additional Schemes Progress to Project-Level Assessment FUTURE WORK ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE The CFRAM Programme Flood Mapping and Risk Assessment 2 Future Scenarios Assessment of Adaptability of Options Project-Level Assessement More Detailed Assessment and Design Managed Adaptive Approach May Include Assumptive Allowances Revise / Update Sectoral Adaptation Plan 12

13 FUTURE WORK NATURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT Emerging Approach often Promoted Detailed Assessment at Project Scale Concerns / Issues to Address: Difficulty in Quantifying Projected Benefits Effectiveness in Large Events Scalability to Large Catchments Practicality in Large Catchments Land Owner Engagement Benefit to Integrated Catchment Management FUTURE WORK PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS Sustainable Planning and Development Review of DPs / LAPs Supported by CFRAM Flood Maps 300 Communities (Incl. 90 Coastal Communities) 6,500kms River Ongoing OPW Support to Planners 13

14 FUTURE WORK PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS Flood Forecasting and Warning National FFW Service in Development Emergency Response & Community Resilience Review of Emergency Response Plans, Informed by CFRAM Maps Review of Community Resilience within Context of Emergency Response Property Resilience Home Relocation Scheme Pilot IPP Schemes FUTURE WORK SECOND CYCLE OF FLOODS DIRECTIVE Review of PFRA, Flood Maps, FRMPs Review, Not a Re-Do Opportunities for Refinement / Improvement Consideration of Climate Change 14

15 FUTURE WORK SECOND CYCLE OF FLOODS DIRECTIVE Defining AFAs: 1 st Cycle Relatively Low Threshold of Risk Recent Floods Few Non-AFAs Significantly Affected Comprehensive Coverage of Communities 2 nd Cycle No Need to Replicate CFRAM Programme Focus on Understanding Risk in Rural Areas FUTURE WORK SECOND CYCLE OF FLOODS DIRECTIVE Sources: Indicative Fluvial Mapping Groundwater / Turlough Mapping Assessment of Risk from Artifical Water-Bearing Infrastructure Impacts: Understanding Rural Risk Critical Infrastructure 15

16 FUTURE WORK SECOND CYCLE OF FLOODS DIRECTIVE PFRA: Historic Flood Information (Floods 2012-Date) Predictive Assessment of Risk (Incl. CFRAM Data) Local and Expert Knowledge Flood Maps: Ongoing Changes (Infrastructure, Floods) Need to Reflect Changes in Timely Manner Flood Risk Management Plans: Review of Progress on 1st Cycle FRMP Measures Additional / Amended Measures SUMMARY PROGRESS TO DATE Protection: Many Schemes Completed / In-Hand >100 Schemes Proposed in FRMPs Prevention & Preparedness: Many Initiatives Commenced & Ongoing CFRAM: Evoluntionary Step Forward FUTURE WORK Significant Work Done Ongoing Implementation, Refinement & Improvement 16

17 National Flood Management Conference 2018 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN IRELAND Mark Adamson Office of Public Works 15 th March,