Indo Count (ICNT IN) Cost and currency impacted the margins
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- Clinton Collin Harrington
- 5 years ago
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Indo Count (ICNT IN) Cost and currency impacted the margins INDIA MIDCAP TEXTILE Quarterly Update Top takeaways from 2QFY19 Results were lower than estimates on margin decline, volume in line. Significant increase in cost and currency hedge impacted the margins. Management positive on volume growth. Expansion in domestic market. Key highlights Revenue: decline 1.4% yoy to Rs 4.86bn, in line with estimates PC s Rs 4.8bn. Margin: 420bps to 10.2%, 380bps qoq. EBITDA: 30% yoy to Rs 498mn, with increase in employee cost, other expenditure and lower export benefit. Raw material as percentage of sales declined 160bps yoy (qoq increase of 440bps) at 54.6%. Employee cost up by 13.5% yoy to Rs 314mn. Other expenditure including outsourcing expenditure: +19% yoy to Rs 1.4bn. Depreciation cost: +6.7% yoy to Rs 81mn. Net profit: 39% yoy to Rs 217mn, lower than estimates of Rs 327mn. The company has adopted cash flow hedging on derivatives from FY19 resulting in net loss of Rs 967mn (net of deferred tax Rs 519mn) recognised in the other comprehensive income. Conference call takeaways Volume improved by ~9% yoy to 15.8mn mtr in 2QFY19. (up 15% to 30.2mn mtr in 1HFY19) Management maintained volume guidance at 8 10% in FY19; we have assumed 9%/10% in FY19/20. 2QFY19 revenue impacted by (1) lower government incentives (2) Currency hedging (3) product mix) and (4) more captive consumption of yarn. The domestic cotton price has remained high due to 28% increase in MSP, decline in crop area by 2% and demand from China. The company hedged most of FY19 revenue at start of year impacting the financials. Out of the planned capex of Rs 4.75bn, it completed Rs 1.75bn (Phase 1 capacity increased to 90mn meters at its Kagal (Maharashtra) plant). Expects to utilise additional capacity by Phase 2 capex of Rs 3bn is in progress and expected to be complete in FY20. It has a capex plan of Rs 650mn in FY19 for modernization and capacity expansion. Indo Count Retail Ventures, under the brand Boutique Living, began domestic operations from October The brand is sold across 23 states and 444 stores (96 cities) in India through multi brand outlets, large format stores, and ecommerce. Share of fashion bedding increased to 14%; expects it to touch 25 30% over the next three years with higher margins ( bps) compared with standard bed linen. 5 November 2018 BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 63 / TARGET Rs 107 (+70%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 197 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 13 MARKET CAP (USDMN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 139 / 53 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.3 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Sep 18 Jun 18 Mar 18 PROMOTERS : FII / NRI : FI / MF : NON PRO : PUBLIC & OTHERS : KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 19,326 20,304 22,768 EBIDTA 2,366 2,395 3,005 Net Profit 1,253 1,163 1,456 EPS, Rs PER, x EV/EBIDTA, x PBV,x ROE, % Debt/Equity (%) CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Revenue 20,304 22,768 3% 2% EBITDA 2,395 3,005 19% 14% Core PAT 1,163 1,456 24% 20% EPS (Rs) % 20% Vikram Suryavanshi ( ) vsuryavanshi@philipcapital.in Outlook and valuation: At CMP, Indo Count trades at 8.5x our FY20 earnings and 5.6x EV/EBITDA. We have cut earnings by ~24% and 20% for FY18/ FY19, considering significant increase in cost and competitive environment. The company has a strong product profile and customer relationships, which will help in current challenging times. India has an advantage in raw material availability and labour cost, and is gaining market share in USA and EU cotton home textiles; the company will be able to capitalise on India s competitive advantage. We maintain valuation at 15x FY20 EPS with a target of Rs 107 (Earlier Rs 140). (Rs mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 yoy 1QFY19 qoq vs. expect. Comments growth % % Revenue Volume up 9% yoy, currency and lower export incentive Raw material Raw material (%) of sales 54.6% 56.1% 50.1% Employee Employee addition with capacity addition Other expenses Increase in fuel and other cost EBITDA EBITDA margins (%) 10.2% 14.4% 14.0% Adjusted PAT Adj EPS (Rs) Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Quarterly financial performance Rs mn 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 Net Sales Other Operating Income Total Revenue yoy growth 2.3% 12.4% 14.5% 8.5% 17.4% 5.8% 1.4% Cost of material Sold Change in Inventory Total Raw material Cost % of sales 52.5% 54.2% 61.1% 56.6% 50.1% 52.0% 54.5% Power and Fuel Employee Cost Other expenditure Total Expenditure EBITDA Margins % 17.6% 15.1% 14.4% 15.1% 14.1% 14.0% 10.2% Depreciation EBIT Interest PBT Tax Effective tax rate 33.4% 35.6% 34.5% 34.7% 36.1% 38.9% 35.2% Current Deferred tax Other adjustments Adjusted Profits Extraordinary Reported PAT No of Shares (mn) Adj EPS (Rs) Cash EPS Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net sales 22,341 19,326 20,304 22,768 Growth, % Total income 22,341 19,326 20,304 22,768 Raw material expenses 11,563 10,438 10,700 11,907 Employee expenses 1,242 1,267 1,488 1,682 Other Operating expenses 5,489 5,255 5,722 6,173 EBITDA (Core) 4,048 2,366 2,395 3,005 Growth, % (6.8) (41.5) Margin, % Depreciation EBIT 3,716 2,035 2,035 2,571 Growth, % (10.6) (45.2) (0.0) 26.4 Margin, % Interest paid Other Non Operating Income Pre tax profit 3,532 1,943 1,790 2,240 Tax provided 1, Profit after tax 2,321 1,253 1,163 1,456 Others (Minorities, Associates) Net Profit 2,321 1,253 1,163 1,456 Growth, % (12.3) (46.0) (7.1) 25.1 Net Profit (adjusted) 2,321 1,253 1,163 1,456 Unadj. shares (m) Wtd avg shares (m) Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Cash & bank Debtors 3,112 2,872 2,567 2,916 Inventory 4,719 5,905 5,279 5,779 Loans & advances Other current assets 908 1,584 1,228 1,278 Total current assets 9,566 11,229 10,105 11,001 Gross fixed assets 9,094 9,531 11,694 13,294 Less: Depreciation 3,766 4,097 4,457 4,891 Add: Capital WIP Net fixed assets 5,450 5,671 7,479 8,650 Total assets 15,015 16,900 17,584 19,651 Current liabilities 2,289 2,248 1,907 2,058 Provisions Total current liabilities 2,329 2,288 1,944 2,097 Non current liabilities 4,147 4,975 5,166 5,861 Total liabilities 6,475 7,263 7,110 7,958 Paid up capital Reserves & surplus 8,064 9,168 10,006 11,225 Shareholders equity 8,540 9,637 10,474 11,693 Total equity & liabilities 15,016 16,900 17,584 19,651 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Pre tax profit 3,532 1,943 1,790 2,240 Depreciation Chg in working capital 1,593 1, Total tax paid Cash flow from operating activities 1, ,457 1,125 Capital expenditure ,168 1,605 Cash flow from investing activities ,168 1,605 Free cash flow Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Cash flow from financing activities Net chg in cash Valuation Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Per Share data EPS (INR) Growth, % (12.3) (46.0) (7.1) 25.1 Book NAV/share (INR) FDEPS (INR) CEPS (INR) CFPS (INR) 6.4 (0.8) DPS (INR) Return ratios Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%) Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) Sales/Total assets (x) Sales/Net FA (x) Working capital/sales (x) Fixed capital/sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days Working capital days Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Interest cover (x) Dividend cover (x) Total debt/equity (%) Net debt/equity (%) Valuation PER (x) PEG (x) y o y growth (0.4) (0.2) (1.5) 0.3 Price/Book (x) Yield (%) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History B (TP 225) 150 B (TP 200) 100 B (TP 160) B (TP 155) B (TP 170) B (TP 140) B (TP 140) 50 0 J 17 F 17 M 17 B (TP 225) J 17 A 17 S 17 N 17 D 17 F 18 M 18 M 18 J 18 J 18 S 18 O 18 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15% SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%. Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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