BANK VAN ARUBA CENTRALE. Page. Contents. money. Published. January 31, No. 312

Transcription

1 C CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA MONTHLY BULLETIN November 2013 Contents I. Main economicc indicators Page 1 Statistical Annex 1. Monetary survey 2. Components of broad money 3. Causes of changes in broad money 4. Foreign assets 5. Consolidated balance sheet of the money creatingg institutions 6. Centrale Bank van Aruba: Summary account 7. Commercial banks' consolidated summary account 8. Government Revenue 9. Government s position with the monetary system 10. Tourism 11. Growth in stay over tourism 12. Consumer price index Published January 31, 2014 No. 312

2 I. Main economic indicators Monetary developments During the month of November 2013, money supply went up by Afl million to Afl. 3,396.6 million, resulting from a rise in net domestic assets of Afl million and an Afl. 4.0 million decline in net foreign assets (excluding revaluation differences of gold and foreign exchange holdings), bringingg these assets to, respectively, Afl. 2, million and Afl. 1,177.5 million. 1,050 1, Chart 1: Nominal housing mortgages (in Afl. million) Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The rise in the domestic component of money supply was associated with an increasee in domestic credit of Afl million, which was partially mitigated by a decline of Afl million in non credit grew largely as a result of an Afl million increase in the net claims of the banking sector on the public sector, stemming mostly from a declinee in government deposits of Afl million. Claims on the private sector expanded by Afl million, attributed to increases in commercial loans, housing mortgages and consumer credit of, respectively, Afl (+1.0 percent), Afl million (+1.2 percent) and Afl million (+0.2 percent) (Chart 1). The contraction in non credit related balance sheet items was associated with clearing transactions, as well as increases in other liabilities and shareholder s equity. credit related balance sheet items. Domestic The Afl. 4.0 million fall in net foreign assets was caused mainly by payments for imports of goods, which were largely mitigated by gross tourism receipts and net transfers from foreign accounts of resident companies. Inflation In November 2013, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4 percent, compared to the corresponding month in 2012 (Chart 2). The factors causing this dropp were transport, clothing & footwear, and household operation. Excluding the effect of food and energy (which partly impacts the housing and transport components), the core CPI remained unchanged, compared to November 2012 (Table A). Chart 2: Inflation Aruba (in percent, end of period) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec The 12 month average inflation rate was 2.7 percent in November 2013 (Chart 3). Excluding the energy and food components, the core CPI went up by 0.2 percent (Table A). 1

3 Chart 3: Inflation Aruba (in percent, twelve month average) percent). The modest growth in the European market was due predominantly to increases in arrivals from the Netherlands (+179 visitors or 5.6 percent), Germany (+100 visitors or percent) and Italy (+36 visitors or 14.8 percent). The intended average nights stayed in Aruba fell from 7.2 nights in November 2012 to 6.8 nights in November Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Table A. Components of Inflation End month Inflation component ts inflation Nov 12 Nov 13 Food And Non Alcoholic Beverages Beverages And Tobacco Products Clothing & Footwear Housing Household Operatio n Health Transport Communication Recreation And Culture Education Restaurants And Hotels Miscellaneous Goods And Services Total Total Excluding Energy & Food month average inflation Nov 12 Nov Tourism In November 2013, the number of stay over visitorss reached 88,296, which is 20.6 percent (+15,084 visitors) higher than in November 2012 (Chart 4), owing to surges in visitors from Latin America, North America and Europe of, respectively, 10,407 (+55.6 percent), 4,349 (+9. 6 percent) and 364 (+5.9 percent). The growth in the Latin American market was attributed mostly to an increase in arrivals from Venezuela (+10,653 visitors or 87.1 percent). The expansion in the North American market resulted from gains in the number of visitors from the United States (+4,518 visitors or 10.9 percent), while arrivals from Canada fell ( 169 visitors or 4.6 The number of cruise visitors rose slightly by 551 (+0.88 percent) in November 2013, compared to the same month of the previous year. The number of ship calls increased to 36 in November 2013, up from 35 in November Chart 4: Absolute change in the number of visitors byy major markets (November 2013 vs. November 2012) Total 15,084 Rest of world (36) Europe 364 South America 10,407 North America 4,349 (5,000) 5,000 15,000 Government revenue In November 2013, total government revenue amounted to Afl million, Afl million higher thann the same month of the previous year. This growth was brought about by increases in both non tamillion and tax revenue of, respectively, Afl. 6.0 and Afl million. The rise in non tax revenue was mostly associated with dividend distributions by a public entity to the government. The expansion in tax revenue was predominantly related to upturns in profit tax (+Afl. 3.4 million), import duties (+Afl. 1.7 million), turnover tax (B.B.O.) (+Afl. 1.1 million), foreign exchange tax 2

4 (+Afl. 1.0 million) and wage tax (+Afl. 1.0 million). These increases were partly counterbalanced by drops in revenue from excises on tobacco and income tax of, respectively, Afl. 2.6 million and Afl. 1.3 million. 3

5 TABLE 1: MONETARY SURVEY* End of period 2012 September October November 2013 September October I. Net domestic assets 1, , , , , , , , ,156.5 A) Domestic credit 2, , , , , , , , , ) Net claims on public sector a) Gross claims** b) Government's deposits c) Development funds ) Claims on private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Other 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,72 1, , , , , , , , B) Other items, net II. Net foreign assets 1, , , , , , , , ,181.4 A) Centrale Bank van Aruba*** B) Commercial banks 1, , , , , , , , , III. Broad money 3, , ,16 3, , , , , ,338.0 A) Money B) Quasi-money 1, , , , , , , , , , ,74 1, , , , , , ,593.7 * T he mon etary survey conso lidates th e accoun ts of the Centrale Bank van Aruba, the commercial banks an d th e Gov ernment related on ly to the issuance of components of the money supply, i.e., coin s and treasury bills. This survey sho ws the financial relation ship between the monetary sector, whose liabilities include the money supply, and oth er sectors of the econ omy. ** Gross claims include loans granted as well as government bond s in the han ds of the mon etary sectors and claims resulting from the issuance of treasury bills, cash certificates, and coins. *** Revaluation differen ces of gold an d official foreign exchange holdings are excluded in order to approximate the net import of foreign fu nds by the n onmonetary sectors. November 2, , , , , , , , , , ,

6 TABLE 2: COMPONENTS OF BROAD MONEY End of period Currency Issued At banks Outside banks Demand deposits Afl. Foreign currency Total Money Other deposits Treasurmoney Quasi- Savings Time Total bills Afl. Foreign currency Afl. Foreign currency (3= (6= (7= (12= (14= (1) (2) 1-2) (4) (5) 4+5) 3+6) (8) (9) (10) (11) ) (13) 12+13) Broad money (15= 7+14) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , , , ,203.7 February , , , , , ,233.9 March , , , , , ,167.7 April , , , , , ,152.4 May , , , , , ,216.0 June , , , , , ,162.2 July , , , , , ,161.2 August , , , , , ,136.9 September , , , , , ,264.0 October , , , , , ,283.0 November , , , , , ,331.5 December , , , , , , January , , , , , ,453.1 February , , , , , ,408.8 March , , , , , ,444.5 April , , , , , ,495.3 May , , , , , ,509.9 June , , , , , ,415.3 July , , , , , ,379.2 August , , , , , ,418.8 September , , , , , ,291.0 October , , , , , ,338.0 November , , , , , ,

7 TABLE 3: CAUSES OF CHANGES IN BROAD MONEY During period 2012 September October November 2013 September October November I. Net domestic money creation A) Domestic credit ) Net claims on public sector a) Recourse to monetary system b) Drawing down of bank balances 1) Government's deposits 2) Development funds ) Claims on private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Other B) Other domestic factors II. Inflow of foreign funds* III. Broad money ) Money 2) Quasi-money * Revaluation differen ces o f gold and official foreign exchan ge holdings are exclu ded in order to approximate the net import of foreig n fund s b y the nonmonetary sectors. 6

8 TABLE 4: FOREIGN ASSETS Centrale Bank van Aruba Gold Other assets tion diffe- excl.( 9) Net rences* Liabilities Net Assets Liabilities Commercial banks Total Revalua- Total End of period (4= (7= (8= (10= (1) (2) (3) 1+2-3) (5) (6) 5-6) 4+7) (9) 8-9) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , ,345.0 February , , , ,375.3 March , , ,224.1 April , , ,207.3 May , , ,194.7 June , , ,084.1 July , , ,075.2 August , , ,041.8 September , , , ,421.0 October , , , ,337.7 November , , , ,348.6 December , , , , January , , , ,322.5 February , , , ,314.0 March , , , ,304.3 April , , , ,325.1 May , , , ,316.5 June , , , ,197.5 July , , ,196.7 August , , , ,530.9 September , , , ,266.6 October , , ,181.4 November , , ,177.5 * Of go ld an d official foreig n exchange h oldings, in accordan ce with the Central Bank O rd inance as revised in December

9 TABLE 5a: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS End of period 2012 September ASSETS 1. Claims on money-creating institutions a) Monetary authorities b) Commercial banks Claims on the public sector a) Short-term b) Long-term Claims on the private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Capital market investments d) Other 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Foreign assets a) Gold b) Short-term c) Long-term 2, , , , , , , , Other domestic assets Total assets 5, , , , ,165.7 October , , , , , ,066.0 November ,72 1, , , , , September , , , , ,994.6 October , , , , ,895.6 November , , , , , , ,

10 TABLE 5b: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS (continued) End of period 2012 September October November LIABILITIES 7. Broad money a) Money b) Quasi-money 3, , , , , , ,16 1, , , , , , , , , ,74 1, , , , Money-creating institutions a) Monetary authorities b) Commercial banks Public sector deposits a) Government b) Development funds Long-term liabilities a) Government b) Private sector 11. Subordinated debt Capital and reserves Foreign liabilities a) Short-term b) Long-term Revaluation differences* Other domestic liabilities Total liabilities 5, , , , , , ,077.2 * Of gold an d official fo reign exchange holdings September 3, , , ,994.6 October 3, , , ,895.6 November 3, , , ,

11 TABLE 6: CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA: SUMMARY ACCOUNT Domestic assets Foreign assets Total assets = Total liabilities Domestic liabilities Capital and reserves Government Develop- ment funds Reserve money Demand Time Total Other reserve money End of period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Notes deposits deposits Revaluation of gold and foreign exchange holdings Foreign liabilities (13) , , , , , , , , , January , , February , , March , , April , , May ,26 1, June , , July , , August , , September , , October , , November , , , December , , , January , , , February 2 1, , , March , , , April , , , May , , , June , , , July , , August , , September , , October , , November , ,

12 TABLE 7: COMMERCIAL BANKS' CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY ACCOUNT End of period October 2013 Overall Resident Non- Resident November 2013 Overall Resident Non- Resident Assets 1) Cash ) Central Bank a) Current account b) Time deposits ) Due from banks a) Current account b) Time deposits ) One year and below ) Over one year 4) Loans 2, , , , a) Enterprises b) Individuals c) Mortgage 1, , , , d) Government 5) Securities a) Short-term securities b) Government bonds c) Other ) Sundry ) Fixed assets ) Total 4, , , , Liabilities 9) Current account 1, , , , a) Government b) Private sector 1, , , , ) Savings deposits 1, , ) Time deposits a) Development funds b) Private sector ) Due to banks ) Other liabilities ) Capital and reserves ) Total 4, , , , Supervisory ratios* Capital/risk-weighted assets ratio Loan/deposit ratio Liquidity ratio * Supervisory ratios cannot be derived from the consolidated balance sheet. 11

13 TABLE 8: GOVERNMENT REVENUE September October November September October November TOTAL REVENUE 1, , , TAX REVENUE , Taxes on income and profit Of which: -Wage tax Income tax Profit tax Solidarity tax Taxes on commodities Of which: -Excises on gasoline Excises on tobacco Excises on beer Excises on liquor Import duties Taxes on property Of which: -Motor vehicle fees Succession tax Land tax Transfer tax Taxes on services Of which: -Gambling licenses Hotel room tax Stamp duties Other Turnover tax (B.B.O.) Foreign exchange tax NONTAX REVENUE Of which: - Grants Other nontax revenue * * Including debt forgiveness and dividend distributions. Source: Tax Collector's Office/Centrale Bank van Aruba 12

14 TABLE 9: GOVERNMENT'S POSITION WITH THE MONETARY SYSTEM Domestic deposits Gross Liabilities to Net Central Commercial liquidity Monetary Commercial Total liability Bank banks position authorities banks to the monetary Free Earmarked Development Total Demand Development system funds funds End of (4= (7= (10= (11= period (1) (2) (3) 1+2+3) (5) (6) 4+5+6) (8) (9) 8+9) 10-7) Change in net liability during period (12) January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November

15 TABLE 10: TOURISM Total Total Visitors by origin Diversification Average Average Cruise tourism visitor visitors Index 1) nights hotel nights North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other stay occupancy Number of Ship America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nether- rate passengers calls lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) ,172, , , , , ,063 75,000 41,211 26, , ,466, , , , ,131 90,850 76,131 40,299 28, , ,685, , , , , ,838 80,874 40,068 32, , ,907, , , , , ,201 79,570 39,973 35, , January 629,079 71,639 50,010 44,665 13,110 7,198 6,491 3,613 2, , February 576,513 72,381 52,520 46,976 11,750 6,972 5,946 3,588 2, , March 597,003 80,630 59,379 52,768 12,771 8,543 5,713 3,204 2, , April 543,437 77,984 52,501 48,899 17,560 12,748 5,148 3,320 2, , May 467,925 65,792 45,542 43,330 10,978 6,580 5,933 2,985 3, ,164 3 June 540,999 72,915 47,319 45,350 15,118 9,004 6,686 2,959 3, ,406 3 July 656,898 80,666 50,657 47,994 17,999 10,800 8,114 3,903 3, ,162 6 August 639,495 83,477 45,992 43,483 26,232 20,638 8,178 3,431 3, ,552 7 September 507,984 69,538 36,166 33,833 22,931 16,338 7,667 3,325 2, ,481 3 October 486,501 65,629 39,606 36,917 15,884 9,934 6,910 3,433 3, , November 523,906 73,212 45,314 41,600 18,713 12,226 6,187 3,186 2, , December 737,403 90,071 51,831 45,135 28,550 22,220 6,597 3,026 3, , January 633,472 75,751 50,714 45,506 16,466 9,436 6,774 3,159 1, n.a. 118, February 567,232 74,049 51,179 45,674 14,778 9,419 6,076 3,056 2, n.a. 88, March 644,956 89,844 62,407 56,290 18,628 13,319 5,870 2,760 2, n.a. 84, April 519,077 76,021 52,621 48,495 15,105 9,976 5,287 3,336 3, n.a. 70, May 495,543 72,746 48,033 45,865 15,329 9,027 6,066 3,271 3, n.a. 26, June 546,679 76,964 51,335 49,344 17,063 10,401 5,742 2,930 2, n.a. 20, July 651,286 87,694 54,797 52,263 21,094 13,061 7,166 3,763 4, n.a. 27, August 652,397 88,289 49,944 47,363 28,212 21,963 7,560 3,135 2, n.a. 21,470 9 September 513,376 72,631 36,239 33,766 27,622 20,247 6,293 2,801 2, n.a. 20, October 520,879 76,681 41,252 39,044 25,556 18,471 6,663 3,255 3, n.a. 44, November 602,192 88,296 49,663 46,118 29,120 22,879 6,551 3,365 2, n.a. 68, ) The Diversification Index measures the concentration within the tourist market, and thus demonstrates the degree of diversification by tourist origin countries. The higher the index, the higher the level of concentration, meaning less diversification. For further reference on the methodology (which is an application of a Herfindahl-Hirschman index) see the Quarterly Bulletin (2011-I) of the CBA. Source: Aruba Tourism Authority/Central Bureau of Statistics/Aruba Hotel and Tourism Association/Cruise Tourism Authority. 14

16 TABLE 11: GROWTH IN STAY-OVER TOURISM Total Total North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other visitor visitors America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nethernights lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Monthly precentage changes 1) 2012 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November Cumulative percentage changes 2) 2012 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November ) As compared to a year earlier. 2) From the beginning of the year to the end of the indicated period as compared to the corresponding period of 15

17 TABLE 12: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (December 2006 = 100) Percentage Change All Over Over Over Last 12 months groups previous 3 months a year over previous End of period index month earlier earlier 12 months January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November * As of January 2009, the basis September 2000 = 100 has been shifted to December 2006 =