MONTHLY BULLETIN JUNE September 26, 2018 Issue no. 367

Transcription

1 MONTHLY BULLETIN JUNE 2018 September 26, 2018 Issue no. 367

2 Contents I. Main economic indicators 1 II. Operations of the CBA 8 Statistical Annex 1. Monetary survey 9 2. Components of broad money Causes of changes in broad money Foreign assets Consolidated balance sheet of the money creating institutions Centrale Bank van Aruba: Summary account Commercial banks' consolidated summary account Government Revenue Government s position with the monetary system Tourism Growth in stay over tourism Consumer price index 21

3 I. Main economic indicators Monetary developments In June 2018, money supply expanded by Afl million to Afl. 4,330.7 million, compared to May 2018, resulting from increases in both net domestic assets and net foreign assets 1 of Afl million and Afl million, respectively (chart 1). Source: Centrale Bank van Aruba 1 Excluding revaluation differences of gold and foreign exchange holdings. 1

4 Money, as a component of broad money, increased by Afl million to Afl. 2,497.3 million, as demand deposits and currency in circulation registered upturns of Afl million and Afl. 1.8 million, respectively. The rise in demand deposits resulted from an expansion in deposits denominated in Aruban florin of Afl million and a reduction in deposits denominated in foreign currency of Afl. 5.0 million. Quasi money went up by Afl. 0.7 million to Afl. 1,833.4 million, resulting from an increase in savings deposits denominated in Aruban florin of Afl million and a decline in time deposits denominated in Aruban florin of Afl million. Source: Centrale Bank van Aruba The uptick in the domestic component of the money supply was caused by growth in both domestic credit and non credit related balance sheet items of Afl million and Afl. 3.7 million, respectively. The rise in domestic credit was the result of 2

5 an increase in claims of the banking sector on the private sector (+Afl million) and a decrease in the net claims of the banking sector on the public sector ( Afl. 2.1 million). The expansion in the claims of the banking sector on the private sector was attributed to higher housing mortgages (+Afl million), consumer credit (+Afl. 3.9 million), and loans to enterprises (+Afl. 3.9 million) (Chart 2). The fall in net claims of the banking sector on the public sector resulted from increases in government deposits (+Afl million), gross claims (+Afl million), and a decrease in development funds ( Afl. 9.8 million). The rise in the non credit related balance sheet items resulted from a contraction in borrowings, increases in shareholders equity, other liabilities, accounts receivables and prepayments, and clearing transactions. The positive development in the net foreign assets of the banking sector resulted from net purchases of foreign exchange of Afl million from the public, largely associated with foreign exchange revenue from tourism activities. These were largely offset by net sales of foreign exchange of Afl million to the public, mostly related to payments for goods (Table 1). Table 1. Change in Net Foreign Assets (NFA) June 2018 (in Afl. million) Net purchases of foreign exchange Tourism services Net transfers from foreign accounts 31.7 Portfolio investment 20.7 Direct investment 8.4 Transportation services 6.1 Net sales of foreign exchange Goods Other services 14.9 Government services 9.2 Secondary income 8.2 Other investment 3.7 Primary income 2.9 Items not yet classified 1.2 Capital account 0.4 NET CHANGE IN NFA (minus ( ) denotes a decrease) 10.6 Source: Centrale Bank van Aruba 3

6 Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2018 noted a 3.4 percent increase year over year (YOY) (Chart 3). Source: Central Bureau of Statistics The main contributors to this rise were the components Transport, Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages and Recreation and Culture. Other components also noting increases were Housing, Household operation and Communication. Excluding the effect of food and energy 2, the core CPI rose by 1.4 percent (YOY) (Table 2). 4

7 Table 2: COMPONENTS OF INFLATION Inflation components End month inflation 12 month average inflation Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 17 Jun 18 Food And Non Alcoholic Beverages Beverages And Tobacco Products Clothing & Footwear Housing Household Operation Health Transport Communication Recreation And Culture 0.5 Education 0.1 Restaurants And Hotels Miscellaneous Goods And Services Total Total Excluding Energy & Food Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 2 Partly affects the housing and transport components. 5

8 The 12 month average inflation rate was 0.8 percent in June 2018, compared to 0.5 percent in May 2018 (Chart 4). Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 6

9 Tourism The number of stay over visitors amounted to 91,877 in June 2018, which is 6,589 more visitors (+7.7 percent) than in June This rise was mainly due to an expansion in the North American market of 7,135 visitors (+12.0 percent). In contrast, the Latin American market and the European market decreased by 683 visitors ( 4.3 percent) and 469 visitors ( 6.8 percent), respectively (Chart 5). The growth in the North American market was due to an increase in arrivals from the United States (+6,828 visitors or percent). The decline in the Latin American market was mainly because of a contraction in arrivals from Venezuela ( 2,120 visitors or 32.0 percent), while the decrease in the European market was caused largely by a contraction in arrivals from the United Kingdom ( 1,183 or 47.9 percent). Source: Aruba Tourism Authority 7

10 In the month under review, total number of nights spent in Aruba, as indicated by the visitors, expanded by 6.9 percent to 649,659 compared to the same month of the previous year. The average intended night stays remained unchanged at 7.1 nights in June 2018 compared to June The number of cruise visitors decreased by 6,672 passengers or 17.0 percent to 32,565 in June 2018, compared to June The number of ship calls declined from 13 in June 2017 to 9 in June Government Total government revenue amounted to Afl million in June 2018, Afl million more than the same month of the previous year. This outcome resulted from a growth of Afl million in non tax revenue and a decrease of Afl. 1.3 million in tax revenue. The decline in tax revenue was mainly related to decreases in income from excises on beer ( Afl. 2.3 million), land tax ( Afl. 2.1 million), income tax ( Afl. 1.8 million), and transfer tax ( Afl. 1.8 million). These decreases were partly offset by increases in income from excises on gasoline (+Afl. 5.6 million), import duties (+Afl. 1.8 million) and wage tax (+Afl. 1.5 million). II. Operations of the CBA On September 7, 2018, Afl million treasury bills were issued at an average price of Afl per Afl. 100 nominal, yielding 0.33 percent on a yearly basis. 8

11 TABLE 1: MONETARY SURVEY* In Afl. million End of period April May June 2018 April May June I. Net domestic assets 2, , , , , , , , , ,630.7 A) Domestic credit 3, , , , , , , , , , ) Net claims on public sector a) Gross claims** b) Government's deposits c) Development funds ) Claims on private sector 2, , , , , , , , , ,159.2 a) Enterprises 1, , , , , , , , , ,331.0 b) Individuals 1, , , , , , , , , , ) Consumer credit ) Housing mortgages 1, , , , , , , , , ,275.5 c) Other B) Other items, net , , , , ,054.8 II. Net foreign assets 1, , , , , , , , , ,70 A) Centrale Bank van Aruba*** 1, , , , , , ,57 1, , ,563.9 B) Commercial banks III. Broad money 3, , , , , , , , , ,330.7 A) Money 1, , , , , , , , , ,497.3 B) Quasi-money 1, , , , , , , , , ,833.4 * T he mon etary survey conso lidates th e accoun ts of the Centrale Bank van Aruba, the commercial banks an d th e Gov ernment related on ly to the issuance of components of the money supply, i.e., coin s and treasury bills. This survey sho ws the financial relation ship between the monetary sector, whose liabilities include the money supply, and oth er sectors of the econ omy. ** Gross claims include loans granted as well as government bond s in the han ds of the mon etary sectors and claims resulting from the issuance of treasury bills, cash certificates, and coins. *** Revaluation differen ces of gold an d official foreign exchange holdings are excluded in order to approximate the net import of foreign fu nds by the n onmonetary sectors. 9

12 TABLE 2: COMPONENTS OF BROAD MONEY In Afl. million End of period Currency Issued At banks Outside banks Demand deposits Afl. Foreign currency Total Money Other deposits Treassury bills and Quasimoney Savings Time Total cash loan (3= (6= (7= (12= (14= (1) (2) 1-2) (4) (5) 4+5) 3+6) (8) (9) (10) (11) ) (13) 12+13) Afl. Foreign currency Afl. Foreign currency certificates Broad money (15= 7+14) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , , , ,205.3 February , , , , , ,097.5 March , , , , , ,180.9 April , , , , , ,137.8 May , , , , , ,077.9 June , , , , , ,134.2 July , , , , , ,194.5 August , , , , , ,164.5 September , , , , , ,157.5 October , , , , , ,174.4 November , , , , , ,151.2 December , , , , , , January , , , , , , ,283.5 February , , , , , , ,332.6 March , , , , , , ,386.9 April , , , , , , ,332.3 May , , , , , , ,296.8 June , , , , , , ,

13 TABLE 3: CAUSES OF CHANGES IN BROAD MONEY In Afl. million During period April May June 2018 April May June I. Net domestic money creation A) Domestic credit ) Net claims on public sector a) Recourse to monetary system b) Drawing down of bank balances 1) Government's deposits 2) Development funds ) Claims on private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Other B) Other domestic factors II. Inflow of foreign funds* III. Broad money ) Money 2) Quasi-money * Revaluation differen ces o f gold and official foreign exchan ge holdings are exclu ded in order to approximate the net import of foreig n fund s b y the nonmonetary sectors. 11

14 TABLE 4: FOREIGN ASSETS In Afl. million Centrale Bank van Aruba Commercial banks Total Revalua- Total Gold Other assets Net Assets tion differences* Liabilities Liabilities Net excl.( 9) End of period (4= (7= (8= (10= (1) (2) (3) 1+2-3) (5) (6) 5-6) 4+7) (9) 8-9) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , ,836.1 February , , , ,787.9 March , , , ,819.1 April , , , ,793.9 May , , , ,806.0 June , , , ,783.8 July , , , ,762.6 August , , , ,740.9 September , , , ,659.2 October , , , ,644.3 November , , , ,613.4 December , , , , January , , , ,748.1 February , , , ,773.7 March , , , ,746.4 April , , , ,739.6 May , , , ,689.4 June , , , ,70 * Of go ld an d official foreig n exchange h oldings, in accordan ce with the Central Bank O rd inance as revised in December

15 TABLE 5a: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS In Afl. million End of period April May June 2018 April May June ASSETS 1. Claims on money-creating institutions a) Monetary authorities b) Commercial banks , , ,28 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Claims on the public sector a) Short-term b) Long-term Claims on the private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Capital market investments d) Other 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Foreign assets a) Gold b) Short-term c) Long-term 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Other domestic assets Total assets 6, , , , , , , , , ,

16 TABLE 5b: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS (continued) In Afl. million End of period April 2017 May 2017 June 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June LIABILITIES 7. Broad money 3, , , , , , , , , ,330.7 a) Money 1, , , , , , , , , ,497.3 b) Quasi-money 1, , , , , , , , , , Money-creating institutions , , , , , , , , ,375.3 a) Monetary authorities , , , , , , , , ,375.3 b) Commercial banks Public sector deposits a) Government b) Development funds Long-term liabilities a) Government b) Private sector 11. Subordinated debt 12. Capital and reserves Foreign liabilities a) Short-term b) Long-term Revaluation differences* Other domestic liabilities Total liabilities 6, , , , , , , , , ,433.9 * Of gold an d official fo reign exchange holdings. 14

17 TABLE 6: CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA: SUMMARY ACCOUNT In Afl. million Domestic Foreign Total Domestic liabilities Revaluation assets assets assets of gold and Capital = Govern- Develop- Reserve money Total Other foreign Total and ment ment reserve exchange liabilities reserves funds Notes Demand Time money holdings deposits deposits End of period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Foreign liabilities (13) , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , February , , , March , , , April , , , May , , , June , , , July , , , August , , , September , , , October , , , November , , , December , , , January , , , February , , , March , , , April , , , May , , , June , , ,

18 TABLE 7: COMMERCIAL BANKS' CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY ACCOUNT In Afl. million End of period May 2018 Overall Resident Non- Resident June 2018 Overall Resident Non- Resident Assets 1) Cash ) Central Bank 1, , , ,104.9 a) Current account b) Time deposits ) Due from banks a) Current account b) Time deposits ) One year and below ) Over one year 4) Loans 3, , , , a) Enterprises b) Individuals c) Mortgage 1, , ,81 1, d) Government 5) Securities a) Short-term securities b) Government bonds c) Other ) Sundry ) Fixed assets ) Total 5, , , , Liabilities 9) Current account 2, , , , a) Government b) Private sector 2, , , , ) Savings deposits 1, , , , ) Time deposits a) Development funds b) Private sector ) Due to banks ) Other liabilities ) Capital and reserves ) Total 5, , , , Supervisory ratios* Capital/risk-weighted assets ratio Loan/deposit ratio Liquidity ratio * Supervisory ratios cannot be derived from the consolidated balance sheet. 16

19 TABLE 8: GOVERNMENT REVENUE In Afl. million April May June obe April May June TOTAL REVENUE 1, , , , # TAX REVENUE 1, , , , # Taxes on income and profit # Of which: -Wage tax # Income tax # Profit tax # Solidarity tax # Taxes on commodities # Of which: -Excises on gasoline # Excises on tobacco # Excises on beer # Excises on liquor # Import duties # Taxes on property # Of which: -Motor vehicle fees # Succession tax # 0.1 -Land tax # Transfer tax # Taxes on services # Of which: -Gambling licenses # Hotel room tax # Stamp duties # Other # Turnover tax (B.B.O.) # Foreign exchange tax # NONTAX REVENUE # Of which: - Grants # - Other nontax revenue * # * Including dividend distributions. ** Excluding nontax revenue from the Department of Finance. Source: Department of Finance; Centrale Bank van Aruba 17

20 TABLE 9: GOVERNMENT'S POSITION WITH THE MONETARY SYSTEM Domestic deposits Gross Liabilities to Net liquidity liability Central Commercial Monetary Commercial Total position to the Bank banks authorities banks monetary Free Earmarked Development Total Demand Development system funds funds End of period (1) (2) (3) (4= 1+2+3) (5) (6) (7= 4+5+6) (8) (9) (10= 8+9) (11= 10-7) Change in net liability during period (12) 2017 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June

21 TABLE 10: TOURISM Total Total Visitors by origin Diversification Average Average Cruise tourism visitor visitors Index 1) nights hotel nights North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other stay occupancy Number of Ship America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nether- rate passengers calls lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) ,692,903 1,072, , , , ,593 80,155 36,995 32, n.a. 667, ,329,592 1,224, , , , ,918 80,590 35,632 41, n.a. 607, ,975,560 1,101, , , , ,128 86,743 36,342 42, n.a. 656, ,966,583 1,070, , , ,776 96,653 90,871 37,246 33, n.a. 792, January 734,378 89,269 61,630 55,384 18,207 8,869 6,857 3,227 2, n.a. 89, February 663,032 84,163 62,703 56,872 13,132 5,420 5,952 2,919 2, n.a. 91, March 642,152 90,133 70,922 64,961 10,996 4,117 5,578 2,985 2, n.a. 99, April 683,998 96,915 70,050 66,121 16,826 7,820 7,188 3,517 2, n.a. 63, May 572,383 80,975 57,987 55,397 12,839 4,763 7,374 2,904 2, n.a. 51, June 607,906 85,288 59,632 57,908 15,985 6,635 6,850 2,331 2, n.a. 39, July 772, ,272 69,545 66,853 21,077 9,897 8,697 3,435 2, n.a. 31, August 659,258 90,798 57,745 55,303 20,745 11,938 9,717 3,210 2, n.a. 46, September 566,314 77,644 45,942 43,634 20,248 11,554 8,872 2,963 2, n.a. 23, October 598,114 81,483 54,051 51,171 15,484 7,133 8,641 3,126 3, n.a. 52, November 622,096 86,064 60,823 57,197 14,572 6,707 7,523 3,404 3, n.a. 104, December 844, ,544 71,987 65,050 22,665 11,800 7,622 3,225 3, n.a. 98, January 757,183 91,471 66,734 59,481 14,917 4,536 7,284 3,655 2, n.a. 108, February 673,369 85,017 67,434 61,123 9,275 1,322 6,249 3,104 2, n.a. 99, March 711,513 98,467 80,187 73,690 9,226 1,419 5,984 2,881 3, n.a. 101, April 622,483 88,115 69,542 65,331 10,121 2,078 5,866 3,514 2, n.a. 55, May 597,338 85,430 63,007 60,549 11,895 3,654 6,965 3,364 3, n.a. 40, June 649,659 91,877 66,767 64,736 15,302 4,515 6,381 2,755 3, n.a. 32, ) The Diversification Index measures the concentration within the tourist market, and thus demonstrates the degree of diversification by tourist origin countries. The higher the index, the higher the level of concentration, meaning less diversification. For further reference on the methodology (which is an application of a Herfindahl-Hirschman index) see the Quarterly Bulletin (2011-I) of the CBA. Source: Aruba Tourism Authority/Central Bureau of Statistics/Aruba Hotel and Tourism Association/Cruise Tourism Authority. 19

22 TABLE 11: GROWTH IN STAY-OVER TOURISM Total Total North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other visitor visitors America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nethernights lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Monthly percentage changes 1) 2017 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June Cumulative percentage changes 2) 2017 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June ) As compared to a year earlier. 2) From the beginning of the year to the end of the indicated period as compared to the corresponding period of a year earlier. 20

23 TABLE 12: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (December 2006 = 100) Percentage Change All Over Over Over Last 12 months groups previous 3 months a year over previous End of period index month earlier earlier 12 months January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June * As of January 2009, the basis September 2000 = 100 has been shifted to December 2006 =

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