Centrale Bank van Aruba Banco Central di Aruba

Transcription

1 Business Perception Survey Results for the third and fourth Quarter of 2017 July 6, Centrale Bank van Aruba Banco Central di Aruba Business Activity During the third quarter of 2017, the overall Business Perception Index (BPI), comprising the current and short term economic conditions, grew by 1.1 age points, from in the second quarter to in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the index decreased by 1.0 age point to (Chart 1, Annex 1). The current economic condition index expanded by 1.1 age points, from in the second quarter to in the third quarter of 2017 (Chart 2, Annex 1). In the fourth quarter of 2017, this index contracted by 0.8 age point to The short term future economic condition index also registered an upturn during the third quarter of 2017, increasing by 1.0 age point, from in the second quarter to in the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2017, this index declined by 1.5 age points to (Chart 3, Annex 1). The contribution 1 of the different sectors to the indices, can be observed in Charts 4a, 4b, and 4c (Annex 2). The Business Perception Survey indicates that the degree of confidence among the surveyed businesses improved during the third quarter of This sentiment, however, changed during the last quarter of the year. 1 Index value = between 100 and 110: Optimistic perception Index value = 100: Neutral Index value = between 90 and 100: Pessimistic perception 1

2 Manufacturing Electricity, gas and (excl. manufacture water supply, of refined manufacture of petroleum refined petroleum products) products Chart 4a: Index current economic condition by sector: Construction Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods Hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communication Financial intermediation Real estate and other business activities Health, other community and personal service activities 2017 I II III IV Manufacturing Electricity, gas and (excl. manufacture water supply, of refined manufacture of petroleum refined petroleum products) products 4b: Index short term future economic condition by sector: Construction Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods Hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communication Financial intermediation Real estate and other business activities Health, other community and personal service activities 2017 I II III IV Manufacturing Electricity, gas and (excl. manufacture water supply, of refined manufacture of petroleum refined petroleum products) products 4c: Business Perception Index by sector: Construction Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods Hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communication Financial intermediation Real estate and other business activities Health, other community and personal service activities 2017 I II III IV Source: Centrale van Aruba 2

3 Sales and Profitability In the third quarter of 2017, sales rose among the surveyed businesses. The age of firms registering lower sales, declined by 14.8 age points, from 26.8 in the second quarter to 12.0 in the third quarter of the year. During this quarter, the age of businesses indicating increased sales and no change in sales grew by 10.6 age points and 4.3 age points, respectively. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the respondents indicated decreased sales, as the age of firms registering decrease in sales rose by 17.6 age points, from 12.0 in the third quarter to 29.6 in the fourth quarter of the year, while the number of businesses noting no change and increase in sales, declined by 4.6 age points, and 13.0 age points, respectively (Chart 5 & Annex 6). During the third quarter of 2017, there was a lower number of profitable businesses within the sample, as the age of surveyed firms reporting to be profitable decreased by 0.5 age point, from 88.5 in the second quarter to 88.0 in the third quarter of This reduction carried on during the fourth quarter of 2017, as the number of profitable firms diminished further by 6.5 age points to 81.5 in the last quarter of 2017 (Chart 6 & Annex 6). Chart 7: The approximate age changes in profits and losses, (Q compared to Q3 2017): Profitability (profits) Δ% Profits No change Increase: Less than 5.1 Increase: Between 5.1 and 10.1 Increase: More than 10.1 Decrease: Less than 5.1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Profitability (losses) Δ% Losses No change Increase: More than 10.1 Decrease: Less than 5.1 Decrease: More than % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 3

4 Investment and Financing Activity During the third quarter of 2017, the surveyed companies recorded mostly no change in investment conditions, as the age of firms indicating no change grew by 21.4 age points, from 34.6 in the second quarter to 56.0 in the third quarter. During the same period, the age of firms indicating worsening and improved investment conditions decreased by 18.6 age points, and 2.8 age points, respectively. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the surveyed firms indicated improved investment conditions, as the age of respondents recording improved investment conditions grew by 5.3 age points, from 28.0 in the third quarter, to 33.3 in the last quarter of the At the same time, the age of businesses noting no change and worsening conditions, contracted by 4.1 age points, and 1.2 age points, respectively (Annex 6). With regard to short term investment activities, most respondents (72.0 ) expected conditions to remain the same in the third quarter of The number of surveyed firms indicating no change in short term investment conditions expanded by 10.5 age points, from 61.5 in the second quarter of 2017 to 72.0 in the third quarter. The age of surveyed businesses indicating worsening and improved conditions, contracted by 7.4 age points, and 3.1 age points, respectively. Unlike the third quarter of 2017, the surveyed businesses indicated changing short term investment activities, as the age of firms registering no change declined by 20.1 age points to 51.9 in the last quarter of the year. During this period, the age of firms registering improved and worsening investment conditions expanded by 13.3 age points, and 6.8 age points, respectively (Annex 6). During the third quarter of 2017, the age of respondents with investment plans over the next 12 months decreased by 4.3 age points, from 92.3 in the second quarter to 88.0 in the third quarter of During the fourth quarter of 2017, this age decreased further by 6.5 age points to 81.5 (Chart 8 & Annex 5). Terms and conditions for obtaining finance remained largely the same during the third quarter of 2017, as an increasing (+3.5 ) majority (92.0 ) reported unchanged conditions. During the same period, the number of surveyed businesses registering improving conditions registered a downturn of 3.9 age points, while the age recording worsening terms and conditions for obtaining finance rose by 0.3 age points. During the fourth quarter of the 2017, the age of surveyed firms registering unchanged terms and conditions for obtaining finance decreased by 21.6 age points to 70.4, while the age of respondents registering improved and worsening conditions expanded by 14.8 age points, and 6.8 age points, respectively (Chart 9, Annex 3). During the third quarter of 2017, the majority (80.0 ) of the surveyed firms expected the annual effective financing rate to be between 5 and 8 in the quarter under review. During the last quarter of 2017, this age increased further by 5.2 age points to 85.2 (Chart 12 & Annex 5). 4

5 5

6 Employment and Wages In the third quarter of 2017, the surveyed firms indicated no changes in employment developments. The number of companies reporting no change in the number of employees increased by 9.4 age points, from 34.6 in the second quarter of 2017 to 44.0 in the quarter under review. Simultaneously, the age recording an improvement registered a downturn of 6.3 age points and the number of surveyed businesses indicating worsening conditions decreased by 3.1 age points. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the age of firms registering no change in employment developments grew further by 7.9 age points to During this period, surveyed businesses registering worsening employment developments expanded by 2.2 age points, while those noting an improvement contracted by 10.1 age points (Annex 6). The indicated age changes in employment can be observed in Chart 11. Regarding average labor costs, the age of respondents registering decrease rose by 12.4 age points, from 7.6 in the second quarter of 2017 to 20.0 in the quarter under review. During this quarter, the no change category expanded by 4.8 age points, while the increase category contracted by 17.1 age points. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the age of firms registering an increase noted a downturn of 0.5 age point, from 56.0 in the third quarter, to 55.5 in the fourth quarter of Simultaneously, the age of surveyed businesses noting a decrease rose by 2.2 age points while the respondents recording no change decreased by 1.8 age points. (Annex 6). The reported age changes in average wage costs are presented in Chart 12. 6

7 Inflation and Pricing During the third quarter of 2017, the majority (88.0 ) of the surveyed businesses expected inflation to be between 0 and 3. This was an 8.2 age points reduction, compared to the second quarter. 8.0 of surveyed firms expected inflation to be below zero (+8.0 age points, QoQ), and 4.0 (+0.2 age point, QoQ) of the surveyed companies expected inflation to be above 3. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the age of surveyed firms with inflation expectations of between 0 and 3 expanded further by 8.2 age points to At the same time, the age of respondents indicating inflation expectations below 0, and above 3, declined by 8.0 age points, and 0.3 age points, respectively (Chart 13, Annex 5). With regard to the prices for products and services over the next 12 months, a decreasing ( 1.5 age points) majority (60.0 ) expected prices to remain the same during the third quarter of 2017, compared to the second quarter. The number of surveyed businesses with expectations of price increases rose by 5.2 age points, from 30.8 in the second quarter of 2017 to 36.0 in the third quarter of During this quarter, the number of firms expecting price decreases contracted by 3.7 age points, from 7.7 in the second quarter of 2017 to 4.0 in the quarter under review. During the fourth quarter of 2017, no respondent expected a decrease in prices over the next 12 months. The age of surveyed firms expecting price increases expanded by 15.9 age points to 51.9, while the age with expectations of unchanged prices contracted by 11.9 age points to 48.1 (Chart 14, Annex 5). On the subject of economic growth expectations over the next 12 months, the majority (56.0 ) indicated expectation related to flat economic growth (+2.2 age points, QoQ). The number of surveyed companies with negative economic growth expectations increased by 0.8 age point, while the age of respondents with positive growth expectations (24.0 ) decreased by 2.9 age points, compared to the second quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2017, the age of respondents with expectations of flat economic growth grew further, by 7.0 age points to 63.0, while the age of surveyed companies with negative and positive growth expectations noted downturns of 5.2 age points and 1.8 age points, respectively (Chart 15, Annex 5). 7

8 Chart 14: Product and/or service pricing expectations over the next 12 months reported in the fourth quarter of 2017 (In % of all respondents) Increase Decrease Remain the same 8

9 Annexes Annex 1: Response rate and indices 1] I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1. Response and non response rates a. Average response rate b. Average non response rate Indices a. Index current economic condition b. Index short term future economic condition c. Business Perception Index Source: CBA. 1] Index value = between 100 and 110: Optimistic perception Index value = 100: Neutral Index value = between 90 and 100: Pessimistic perception 9

10 Annex 2: Business perception Survey (by sectors) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1. Index current economic condition a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Index short term future economic condition a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Business Perception Index a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Source: CBA. 10

11 Annex 3: Survey questionnaire for Q Improvement No change Worsening Current economic condition The economic conditions in Aruba The activities of your business The investments of your business The number of employees that work for your company The terms and conditions for obtaining finance Expected short term economic conditions The economic conditions in Aruba The activities of your business The investments of your business The number of employees that work for your company Source: CBA. 1] Compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. 2] During the next 6 months. 11

12 Annex 4: Economic indicators by sector (Q4 2017) No Change Less than 5.1 Decrease Between More than 10.1 Less than 5.1 Increase Between More than Employment, in ages of all responding sectors a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities A. Profitability (profits), in ages of all responding sectors a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities B. Profitability (losses), in ages of all responding sectors a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Source: CBA. 12

13 Annex 4: Economic indicators by sector (Q4 2017) No Change Less than 5.1 Decrease Between More than 10.1 Less than 5.1 Increase Between More than Sales, in ages of all responding sectors a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Average wage costs, in ages of all responding sectors a. Manufacturing (excl. manufacture of refined petroleum products) b. Electricity, gas and water supply, manufacture of refined petroleum products c. Construction d. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods e. Hotels and restaurants f. Transport, storage and communication g. Financial intermediation h. Real estate and other business activities i. Health, other community and personal service activities Source: CBA. 13

14 Annex 5: Economic indicators by sector Source: CBA I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV A. Inflation over the next 12 months 1. Below Between 0 and Between 1 and Between 2 and Above Total B. Investment plans over the next 12 months 1. Below Afl. 1 million Between Afl. 1 and Afl. 5 million Above Afl. 5 million Not applicable Total C. Annual effective financing rate over the next 12 months * 1. Below Between 5 and Between 8 and Above Total D. Product and/or service pricing over the next 12 months 1. Increase Decrease Remain the same Total E. Economic growth (GDP growth) over the next 12 months 1. Below negative Between negative 10 and negative 5 3. Between negative 5 and 1 4. Between 1 and 5 5. Between 5 and Above Negative Flat Positive Total * Annual effective financing rate for business loans 14

15 Annex 6: BUSINESS PERCEPTION RESULTS Survey questionnaire responses Business Perception Index Improvement No change Worsening Current Short term Business Perception Index I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV A. Current economic conditions The economic conditions in Aruba The activities of your business The investments of your business The number of employees that work for your company Terms and conditions for obtaining finance I II B. Expected short term economic conditions 1) III The economic conditions in Aruba IV The activities of your business The investments of your business I The number of employees that work for your company II III IV I II III IV ) During the next 6 months. Perceived developments of employment, profitability, sales, and average wage costs 1) Employment Operational results Sales Average wage costs Profits Losses I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1. no change increase of less than increase between 5.1 and increase of more than decrease of less than decrease between 5.1 and decrease of more than Total ) In ages of all respondents.