Inter-Provincial Exports

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Kory Julius Lane
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ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Inter-Provincial Exports Highlights: Although the Alberta economy is heavily dependent on international exports Alberta s exports of goods and services to the other provinces and

1 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Inter-Provincial Exports Highlights: Although the Alberta economy is heavily dependent on international exports Alberta s exports of goods and services to the other provinces and territories are also quite substantial and totaled $63 billion in Between 2006 and 2016, exports to international markets grew by only 7% but exports to Canadian markets rose a much stronger 28%. The top Canadian markets for Alberta exports are Ontario, British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

-2- Overview of Alberta s Inter-Provincial Exports According to Statistics Canada s latest GDP table 1, Alberta exported $63 billion in goods and services to the rest of Canada in 2016.

2 -2- Overview of Alberta s Inter-Provincial Exports According to Statistics Canada s latest GDP table 1, Alberta exported $63 billion in goods and services to the rest of Canada in The same table estimates international exports of goods and services at $98 billion. Inter-provincial exports of goods and services fell 15% during the 2015/2016 recession, from $74 billion in 2014 to $63 billion in However, this is a smaller decline than the 26% drop in international exports (Chart 1). Clearly, inter-provincial exports are less volatile than international exports. Most of the two-year decline in inter-provincial exports was the result of lower prices as export volumes declined by only 2% between 2014 and Prices tumbled 13% because of lower prices for oil and gas exports. For most years during the 1988 to 2008 period inter-provincial exports of goods were more than 50% larger than exports of services. However, this has changed in recent years and services exports exceeded goods exports in 2015 and 2016 (Chart 2). In fact, the service sector accounts for all of the inter-provincial export growth between 2006 and 2016 with a 10-year increase of 77% compared with a 2% decline in goods exports. During that 10-year period interprovincial exports of goods and services rose 28%, compared with an increase of only 7% for international exports of goods and services. 1 Cansim Table Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual.

-3- Alberta s Exports by Province/Territory of Destination In 2014, Ontario accounted for 37.2% of Alberta s inter-provincial exports 2 (Chart 3). Exports to Ontario totaled $27.

3 -3- Alberta s Exports by Province/Territory of Destination In 2014, Ontario accounted for 37.2% of Alberta s inter-provincial exports 2 (Chart 3). Exports to Ontario totaled $27.4 billion that year, up from $19.6 billion in Oil and gas commodities accounted for about 40% of total exports to Ontario, followed by processed foods and beverages with an 8% share (Chart 4). British Columbia is Alberta s second largest Canadian market, accounting for 22.8% of interprovincial exports. Exports to B.C. totaled $16.8 billion that year, up from $15.3 billion in Refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel fuel, accounted for 19% of exports to B.C., followed by oil and gas services (such as drilling services) with a 12% share (Chart 5). Saskatchewan accounted for 17.3% of interprovincial exports. Exports rose from $11.5 billion in 2010 to $12.7 billion in The largest export commodities are oil and gas commodities with a 23% share of Alberta exports to Saskatchewan, followed by oil and gas services with a 15% share (Chart 6). Quebec imported $6.3 billion from Alberta in 2014, up from $5.2 billion in Oil and gas commodities accounted for 22% of total exports to Quebec, followed by processed foods and beverages with a 20% share. 2 Cansim Tables and Interprovincial and international trade flows. Inter-provincial export estimates by commodity and by province are only available for the years 2010 to 2014.

4 -4- Alberta shipments to Manitoba saw little change during the 2010 to 2014 period, rising from $5.2 billion in 2010 to $5.4 billion in Refined petroleum products accounted for one-quarter of exports to Manitoba, followed by oil and gas commodities with a 13% share. Alberta exported $3.5 billion to the four Maritime provinces in 2014, sharply higher than the $2.4 billion recorded in Refined petroleum products accounted for 19% of exports to the Maritimes, followed by oil and gas commodities with a 14% share. In 2014, the three Territories imported $1.5 billion from Alberta, up from $1.4 billion in Refined petroleum products accounted for 30% of exports to the Territories. What Products and Services Do We Send to the Other Provinces? Oil and gas commodities are by far Alberta s largest international exports, accounting for 66% of total international exports of goods and services in These commodities are also Alberta s largest inter-provincial exports, accounting for 24% of inter-provincial exports in 2014 (Chart 7). In 2014, inter-provincial exports of oil and gas commodities reached a record $18 billion. Unlike Alberta s international exports, which are dominated by oil sands products (bitumen and synthetic crude oil), conventional crude oil continues to be Alberta s largest interprovincial oil and gas export at $6.6 billion in 2014, followed by natural gas at $5.1 billion, synthetic crude oil at $3.2 billion and gas liquids at $2.7 billion. In other words, no bitumen is shipped to the other provinces. Alberta s largest Canadian provincial customer for oil and gas products is Ontario, which purchased $11.1 billion in oil and gas from Alberta in Crude oil exports were $6.9 billion ($3.7 billion of conventional oil and $3.2 billion of synthetic crude) and gas and gas liquids $4.2 billion ($2.5 billion in natural gas and $1.7 billion in gas liquids). Saskatchewan is the next largest market at $2.9 billion in 2014 (mainly conventional crude oil and natural gas), followed

5 -5- by Quebec at $1.4 billion (gas and gas liquids) and British Columbia at $1.3 billion (mainly conventional crude oil). Alberta exported $8.5 billion of refined petroleum products to the other provinces in Exports of diesel totaled $3.7 billion, of gasoline $2.9 billion, and of light fuel oils $1.0 billion. British Columbia is the largest Canadian market for Alberta s refinery products at $3.2 billion in 2014 (mainly diesel fuel and gasoline), followed by Ontario at $1.6 billion (mainly diesel fuel), Manitoba at $1.3 billion (gasoline and diesel) and Saskatchewan at $1.1 billion (gasoline). Alberta exported $5.7 billion of processed foods and beverages to the other provinces in Meat products is by far the largest sub-sector with $2.8 billion in exports. Ontario is Alberta s largest customer at $2.1 billion, followed by B.C. and Quebec at $1.3 billion each. The third largest export product is wholesale services or wholesale margins. Wholesale margins are the difference between wholesale revenues and the cost of goods sold. In Alberta, these margins accounted for just over 8% of total wholesale sales in Alberta exported $5.2 billion in wholesale services to the other provinces. The wholesaling of petroleum and petroleum products sub-sector accounted for about one-half of these exports. Alberta exported $1.7 billion in wholesale services to Ontario in 2014 (mainly petroleum and petroleum products margins), followed by British Columbia at $1.1 billion and Saskatchewan at $911 million. Exports of oil and gas services, such as exploration and drilling and rigging services, reached a record $4.3 billion in These exports have likely dropped sharply since then as oil and gas investment has plummeted across the country. B.C. and Saskatchewan each purchased about $2 billion of these services from Alberta. Inter-provincial exports of transportation services were $4.1 billion in Air services, especially for passenger transportation, was the largest sub-sector with $1.3 billion in exports, followed by truck transportation services at $820 million. Alberta s largest provincial customer for transportation services is Ontario that purchased $1.5 billion of these services from Alberta in 2014, followed by B.C. at $1.1 billion. Exports of professional, scientific and technical services also totaled $4.1 billion in Engineering and architectural services was the largest sub-sector with $2.1 billion in exports, followed by management, scientific and technical consulting services at $936 million. Saskatchewan and B.C. account for the bulk of these exports with $1.4 billion going to Saskatchewan and $1.2 billion to B.C. Saskatchewan mainly imports engineering services for its oil and gas sector.

6 -6- Summary Alberta s exports of goods and services to the other provinces and the territories totaled $63 billion in Inter-provincial exports declined 14% during Alberta s 2015/2016 recession but were still 28% higher in 2016 than in Although oil and gas commodities continue to be the largest inter-provincial export, the service sector has accounted for all of the 10-year growth in inter-provincial exports. Exports of services increased by 77% between 2006 and 2016 while exports of goods fell 2%. Ontario is Alberta s largest Canadian export market, followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Alberta s Interprovincial Exports by Province and Industry EXPORTS By Province of Destination and Industry ($Millions) %Change %Change To all Provinces and Territories: 60,615 64,259 63,970 71,840 73, % 2.5% Oil, Gas & Gas Liquids 14,567 13,770 12,544 17,496 17, % 2.4% Refined Petroleum Products 5,793 7,456 7,006 7,678 8, % 10.3% Processed Foods & Beverages 4,725 4,827 4,899 5,674 5, % -0.2% Wholesale Trade Margins NA NA NA 5,025 5,192 NA 3.3% Oil & Gas Services 3,312 3,717 3,415 3,047 4, % 42.7% Professional & Technical Svcs 3,764 3,253 3,859 3,532 4, % 15.7% Transportation Services 3,572 3,686 3,932 3,668 4, % 10.8% To Ontario: 19,569 19,886 18,461 27,976 27, % -2.2% Oil, Gas & Gas Liquids 7,882 6,595 5,160 11,333 11, % -2.2% Processed Foods & Beverages 1,240 1,358 1,361 2,162 2, % -4.6% Wholesale Trade Margins NA NA NA 1,538 1,690 NA 9.9% Refined Petroleum Products 819 1, ,284 1, % 21.9% Transportation Services 1,316 1,405 1,524 1,434 1, % 4.6% To British Columbia: 15,315 16,226 16,863 16,172 16, % 3.6% Refined Petroleum Products 2,663 3,582 3,361 3,398 3, % -5.4% Oil & Gas Services 1,830 1,895 1,434 1,439 2, % 46.0% Transportation Services 1,316 1,405 1,524 1,434 1, % 4.6% Oil, Gas & Gas Liquids 1,308 1,276 1,530 1,314 1, % 2.7% Processed Foods & Beverages 1,566 1,535 1,583 1,206 1, % 10.4% To Saskatchewan: 11,468 13,032 13,158 11,490 12, % 10.8% Oil, Gas & Gas Liquids 3,711 3,980 3,974 2,476 2, % 16.3% Oil & Gas Services 888 1,284 1,500 1,308 1, % 50.6% Professional & Technical Svcs 1,226 1,209 1,180 1,127 1, % 17.4% Refined Petroleum Products ,050 1,064 1, % 3.1% Source: Statistics Canada. Industry aggregations by Alberta Economic Development and Trade.

Alberta s Imports from the other Provinces and Territories

ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Alberta s Imports from the other Provinces and Territories Highlights: Although Alberta is known to be a major exporter of goods and services to international and Canadian markets,