BANK VAN ARUBA CENTRALE. Page. Contents. money. No. 292

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1 C CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA MONTHLY BULLETIN MARCH 2012 Contents I. Main economicc indicators Page 1 Statistical Annex 1. Monetary survey 2. Components of broad money 3. Causes of changes in broad money 4. Foreign assets 5. Consolidated balance sheet of the money creatingg institutions 6. Centrale Bank van Aruba: Summary account 7. Commercial banks' consolidated summary account 8. Government revenue 9. Government s position with the monetary system 10. Tourism 11. Growth in stay over tourism 12. Consumer price index Published June 20, 2012 No. 292

2 I. Main economic indicators Monetary developments During the month of March 2012, the money supply dropped by Afl million to Afl. 3,167.7 million, resulting from an Afl million outflow of foreign funds. An Afl million growth in net domestic assets largely offset the aforementioned outflow. Because of the Afl million outflow, net foreign assets (excluding revaluation differences of gold and foreign exchange holdings) decreased to Afl. 1,221.9 million at the end of March The rise in the domestic component of the money supply was associated with increasess of Afl million and Afl million in domestic credit and in the non credit related balance sheet items, respectively. The latter was due mostly to clearing transactions. Domestic credit grew because of an increase of Afl million in the net liability of the public sector to the banking sector, and a rise of Afl million in the claims of the banking sector on the private sector. The latter reflected expansions in commercial loans and housing mortgages of Afl million ( percent) and Afl. 7.0 million (+0.8 percent), respectively, while consumer credit shrank by Afl. 1.9 million ( 0.3 percent) (Chart 1). Chart 1: Nominal housing mortgages (in Afl. million) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) for March 2012 registered a 5.1 percent increase, compared to the same month of 2011 (Chart 2). The main components that contributed to this development weree housing, food items, and transport. When excluding the effect of food and energy (which partly affects the housing and transport components), the resulting core CPI shows a 0.9 percent rise compared to March This rise was brought about by increased prices of transport components excluding gasoline and diesel (i.e., new cars), communication (i.e., pre paid telephone cards), and restaurants and hotels (i.e., food and beverage consumption outside the home) (Table A). Chart 2: Inflationn Aruba (in percent, end of period) Jan Feb Marr Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The 12 month average inflation rate reached 5.5 percent in March 2012 (Chart 3). The core CPI, thus subtracting the energy and food components from the 12 month average rate, picked up by 1.5 percent, associated with higher prices of transport components (excluding gasoline and diesel), communication, as well as recreation and culture (Table A). 1

3 Table A. Components of Inflation Inflation components Food And Non Alcoholicc Beverages Beverages And Tobaccoo Products Clothing & Footwear Housing Household Operation Health Transport Communication Recreation And Culture Education Restaurants And Hotels Miscellaneous Goods And Services End month inflation MAR MAR Total Total Excluding Energy & Food Chart 3: Inflation Aruba (in percent, twelve month average) 12 month average inflation MAR MAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tourism The number of stay over visitors totaled 80,824 in March 2012, which is 5.1 percent higher compared to March This growth was mainly caused by increases of 3.5 percent (+2,014) and 17.2 percent (+ +1,891) in visitors from North America and Latin America, respectively. The growth in the North American market was due to a rise of 1,,939 visitors from the United States. The expansion in the Latin American market segment was attributed mostly to an increase of 2,,257 visitors from Venezuela. In addition, more tourist arrivals were registered for Colombia (+ +440), Germany (+203), Argentina (+202), and the rest of Europe (+190). The European market noted a slight increase of 2.1 percent in March 2012 compared to the same month of However, visitors from Italy fell, due largely to the absence of chartered flights from this country in March 2012 compared to the corresponding month of a year earlier. Moreover, in March 2012 visitors from Brazil and the Netherlands Antilles decreased sharply by 42.6 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, compared to March 2011 (Chart 4). These decreases were attributed to the carnival period falling in February this year, versus March of last year. Chart 4: Absolute change in number of visitors by major markets (March 2012 vs. 2011) Total 3,886 Venezuela 2,257 Brazil (953) Netherlands Antilles (165) Argentina 202 Trinidad and Tobago 2 Colombia 440 Europe (excluding Italy) 380 Rest of world (31) North America 2,014 Italy (260) (1,000) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 The number of cruise visitors also dropped markedly by percent to 84,628 in the month of March 2012 compared to the same month of the previous year. The number of ship calls fell to 43 in March 2012 compared to 60 in March

4 Government revenue Registered tax revenue for the month of March 2012 totaled Afl million, which is a reduction of Afl. 4.4 million ( 6.1 percent) compared to the same month of the previous year. These were mostly associated with decreases of Afl. 4.0 million ( 15.1 percent) and Afl. 1.2 million ( 0.4 percent) in revenue from taxes on commodities and income, and profit tax, respectively, which were slightly offset by a rise in property taxes of Afl. 0.7 million ( percent). Receipts from the foreign exchange tax and the turnover tax (BBO) remained unchanged. Furthermore, non tax revenue posted an Afl. 8.9 million growth in March 2012 when compared to the same month of last year. 3

5 TABLE 1: MONETARY SURVEY* End of period 2011 January February March 2012 January February I. Net domestic assets 1, , , , , , , , ,860.7 A) Domestic credit 2, , , , , , , , , ) Net claims on public sector a) Gross claims** b) Government's deposits c) Development funds ) Claims on private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Other 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , B) Other items, net II. Net foreign assets 1, , , , , , , , ,373.2 A) Centrale Bank van Aruba*** B) Commercial banks 1, , , , , , , , , III. Broad money 2, , , , , , , , ,233.9 A) Money B) Quasi-money 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,598.4 * T he mon etary survey conso lidates th e accoun ts of the Centrale Bank van Aruba, the commercial banks an d th e Gov ernment related on ly to the issuance of components of the money supply, i.e., coin s and treasury bills. This survey sho ws the financial relation ship between the monetary sector, whose liabilities include the money supply, and oth er sectors of the econ omy. ** Gross claims include loans granted as well as government bond s in the han ds of the mon etary sectors and claims resulting from the issuance of treasury bills, cash certificates, and coins. *** Revaluation differen ces of gold an d official foreign exchange holdings are excluded in order to approximate the net import of foreign fu nds by the n onmonetary sectors. March 1, , , , , , , , , ,

6 TABLE 2: COMPONENTS OF BROAD MONEY End of period Currency Issued At banks Outside banks Demand deposits Afl. Foreign currency Total Money Other deposits Treasurmoney Quasi- Savings Time Total bills Afl. Foreign currency Afl. Foreign currency (3= (6= (7= (12= (14= (1) (2) 1-2) (4) (5) 4+5) 3+6) (8) (9) (10) (11) ) (13) 12+13) Broad money (15= 7+14) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , , , , ,150.9 February , , , , , ,163.6 March , , , , , ,179.0 April , , , , , ,236.0 May , , , , , ,219.5 June , , , , , ,204.3 July , , , , , ,174.1 August , , , , , ,203.0 September , , , , , ,202.2 October , , , , , ,210.4 November , , , , , ,242.4 December , , , , , , January , , , , , ,203.5 February , , , , , ,233.9 March , , , , , ,167.7

7 TABLE 3: CAUSES OF CHANGES IN BROAD MONEY During period 2011 January February March 2012 January February March I. Net domestic money creation A) Domestic credit ) Net claims on public sector a) Recourse to monetary system b) Drawing down of bank balances 1) Government's deposits 2) Development funds ) Claims on private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Other B) Other domestic factors II. Inflow of foreign funds* III. Broad money ) Money 2) Quasi-money * Revaluation differen ces o f gold and official foreign exchan ge holdings are exclu ded in order to approximate the net import of foreig n fund s b y the nonmonetary sectors. 6

8 TABLE 4: FOREIGN ASSETS Centrale Bank van Aruba Gold Other assets tion diffe- excl.( 9) Net rences* Liabilities Net Assets Liabilities Commercial banks Total Revalua- Total End of period (4= (7= (8= (10= (1) (2) (3) 1+2-3) (5) (6) 5-6) 4+7) (9) 8-9) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , January , , ,316.7 February , , ,331.1 March , , ,329.1 April , , ,341.7 May , , ,328.8 June , , , ,321.4 July , , , ,259.7 August , , ,241.9 September , , ,223.1 October , , ,225.4 November , , ,270.6 December , , , January , , , ,344.5 February , , , ,373.2 March , , ,221.9 * Of go ld an d official foreig n exchange h oldings, in accordan ce with the Central Bank O rd inance as revised in December

9 TABLE 5a: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS End of period 2011 January ASSETS 1. Claims on money-creating institutions a) Monetary authorities b) Commercial banks Claims on the public sector a) Short-term b) Long-term Claims on the private sector a) Enterprises b) Individuals 1) Consumer credit 2) Housing mortgages c) Capital market investments d) Other 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Foreign assets a) Gold b) Short-term c) Long-term 2, , , , , , , , , Other domestic assets Total assets 5, , , , ,660.5 February , , , , , ,625.1 March , , , , , January , , , , ,777.3 February , , , , , ,855.5 March , , , , , ,

10 TABLE 5b: CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE MONEY-CREATING INSTITUTIONS (continued) End of period 2011 January February March LIABILITIES 7. Broad money a) Money b) Quasi-money 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Money-creating institutions a) Monetary authorities b) Commercial banks Public sector deposits a) Government b) Development funds Long-term liabilities a) Government b) Private sector 11. Subordinated debt Capital and reserves Foreign liabilities a) Short-term b) Long-term Revaluation differences* Other domestic liabilities Total liabilities 5, , , , , , ,565.3 * Of gold an d official fo reign exchange holdings January 3, , , ,777.3 February 3, , , ,855.5 March 3, , , ,

11 TABLE 6: CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA: SUMMARY ACCOUNT Domestic assets Foreign assets Total assets = Total liabilities Domestic liabilities Capital and reserves Government Develop- ment funds Reserve money Demand Time Total Other reserve money End of period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Notes deposits deposits Revaluation of gold and foreign exchange holdings Foreign liabilities (13) , , , , , , , , January , , February 2 1, , March , , April , , May , , June , , July , , August 2 1, , September , , October , , November , , December , , January , , February , , March , ,

12 TABLE 7: COMMERCIAL BANKS' CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY ACCOUNT End of period February 2012 Overall Resident Non- Resident March 2012 Overall Resident Non- Resident Assets 1) Cash ) Central Bank a) Current account b) Time deposits ) Due from banks a) Current account b) Time deposits ) One year and below ) Over one year ) Loans 2, , , , a) Enterprises b) Individuals c) Mortgage 1, , , , d) Government 5) Securities a) Short-term securities b) Government bonds c) Other ) Sundry ) Fixed assets ) Total 4, , , , Liabilities 9) Current account 1, , , , a) Government b) Private sector 1, , , , ) Savings deposits 1, , ) Time deposits a) Development funds b) Private sector ) Due to banks ) Other liabilities ) Capital and reserves ) Total 4, , , , Supervisory ratios* Capital/risk-weighted assets ratio Loan/deposit ratio Liquidity ratio * Supervisory ratios cannot be derived from the consolidated balance sheet. 11

13 TABLE 8: GOVERNMENT REVENUE January February March January February March TOTAL REVENUE 1, , , TAX REVENUE , Taxes on income and profit Of which: -Wage tax Income tax Profit tax Solidarity tax Taxes on commodities Of which: -Excises on gasoline Excises on tobacco Excises on beer Excises on liquor Import duties Taxes on property Of which: -Motor vehicle fees Succession tax Land tax Transfer tax Taxes on services Of which: -Gambling licenses Hotel room tax Stamp duties Other Turnover tax (B.B.O.) Foreign exchange tax NONTAX REVENUE Of which: - Grants Other nontax revenue * * Including debt forgiveness. Source: Tax Collector's Office/Centrale Bank van Aruba 12

14 TABLE 9: GOVERNMENT'S POSITION WITH THE MONETARY SYSTEM Domestic deposits Gross Liabilities to Net Central Commercial liquidity Monetary Commercial Total liability Bank banks position authorities banks to the monetary Free Earmarked Development Total Demand Development system funds funds End of (4= (7= (10= (11= period (1) (2) (3) 1+2+3) (5) (6) 4+5+6) (8) (9) 8+9) 10-7) Change in net liability during period (12) January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March

15 TABLE 10: TOURISM Total Total Visitors by origin Diversification Average Average Cruise tourism visitor visitors Index 1) nights hotel nights North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other stay occupancy Number of Ship America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nether- rate passengers calls lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) ,264, , , , , ,034 73,144 41,439 31, , ,172, , , , , ,063 75,000 41,211 26, , ,466, , , , ,131 90,850 76,131 40,299 28, , n.a. 871, , , , ,305 81,526 40,584 32, n.a , January 654,105 74,623 53,681 47,961 12,703 6,693 6,579 3,254 1, , February 562,074 68,755 52,631 46,786 8,329 4,520 6,319 3,424 1, , March 569,215 76,938 57,385 50,845 11,006 6,327 5,638 3,248 2, , April 562,176 79,589 54,860 51,883 16,614 11,960 5,858 3,459 2, , May 478,444 65,268 46,515 43,870 10,047 5,127 6,456 3,032 2, , June 502,788 67,999 44,967 43,586 13,239 7,202 6,550 2,975 3, ,997 6 July 641,191 81,070 52,582 50,543 15,551 8,152 8,442 4,250 4, ,142 4 August n.a. 79,687 43,452 41,830 24,251 18,683 8,987 3,555 2, n.a ,308 6 September n.a. 63,906 32,937 31,468 21,575 15,337 6,614 2,941 2, n.a ,652 4 October n.a. 65,227 40,498 38,618 14,351 8,318 7,375 3,894 3, n.a , November n.a. 66,799 43,863 40,758 13,855 8,952 6,384 3,294 2, n.a , December n.a. 81,455 48,650 43,315 23,533 17,034 6,324 3,258 2, n.a , January n.a. 72,020 50,133 44,761 13,232 7,262 6,603 3,705 2, n.a. n.a. 94, February n.a. 72,656 52,553 47,009 11,865 7,016 6,039 3,674 2, n.a. n.a. 94, March n.a. 80,824 59,399 52,784 12,897 8,584 5,758 3,241 2, n.a. n.a. 84, ) The Diversification Index measures the concentration within the tourist market, and thus demonstrates the degree of diversification by tourist origin countries. The higher the index, the higher the level of concentration, meaning less diversification. For further reference on the methodology (which is an application of a Herfindahl-Hirschman index) see the Quarterly Bulletin (2011-I) of the CBA. Source: Aruba Tourism Authority/Central Bureau of Statistics/Aruba Hotel and Tourism Association/Cruise Tourism Authority. 14

16 TABLE 11: GROWTH IN STAY-OVER TOURISM Total Total North Of which Latin Of which Europe Of which Other visitor visitors America U.S.A. America Venezuela Nethernights lands Period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Monthly precentage changes 1) 2011 January February March April May June July August n.a September n.a October n.a November n.a December n.a January n.a February n.a March n.a Cumulative percentage changes 2) 2011 January February March April May June July August n.a September n.a October n.a November n.a December n.a January n.a February n.a March n.a ) As compared to a year earlier. 2) From the beginning of the year to the end of the indicated period as compared to the corresponding period of a year earlier. 15

17 TABLE 12: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (December 2006 = 100) Percentage Change All Over Over Over Last 12 months groups previous 3 months a year over previous End of period index month earlier earlier 12 months January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March * As of January 2009, the basis September 2000 = 100 has been shifted to December 2006 =