Argus FMB Monthly Urea Outlook

Transcription

1 Argus FMB Monthly Urea Outlook Prices, trade and inputs Issue Monday 4 February 2013 Outlook Prices heading for downturn by the start of the second quarter 2013 The month ahead: Demand from the northern hemisphere has given the market momentum. Further price increases are forecast for February and first-half March. The next 3-6 months: Prices to correct downwards as we move out of the second quarter into the third. Increased supply should include the new Fertil plant. 12 months forward: Chinese suppliers will benefit from a slightly more favourable tax regime in 2013 and this should ensure export volumes are plentiful. Forecast urea prices February March April Q Q Q Yuzhny Prilled Arabian gulf granular China Prilled nm nm nm nm Egypt granular US Gulf granular pst yuzhny prills fob - hi/lo range - actual and forecast ($/t) An Argus Media company Welcome to your new-look and renamed Argus FMB Monthly Urea Outlook. We hope you like the new layout and design. We are always happy to hear your comments and suggestions, please contact us at: fertilizer@argusmedia.com high - $515/t Yuzhny fell $180/t during Oct-Dec Forecast Feb 2013 high-end at $455/t 350 Forecast low-end 2011 low - $308/t Q $370/t Q low-end projected at $350/t, then lower for Q4 300 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd

2 International pricing series Arabian Gulf This benchmark traded in a $390-$450/t fob range in January, which was $5/t above our forecast on the high-end. Fertil sold a spot granular cargo for February loading, seeking prices above $440/t fob Ruwais. The average for January was $414/t fob, which is $3/t above that for December. OUTLOOK: Likely to move above $460/t in the coming weeks. Graphs show hi/lo range - actual and forecast ($/t) Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 China (prilled) This benchmark strayed outside the forecast range in January, which was $ /t fob. Prices were assessed at $ /t fob at the end of January. There were larger volumes of granular urea than prilled in bonded warehouse but these are now reduced No Market OUTLOOK: Out of the market until 1 July, projected to re-enter at $ /t fob Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Egypt Supply problems and European demand helped to push this benchmark towards and above the high-end of our forecast range of $ /t fob. Recent sales have been made at $510/t fob, and our forecast range has been lifted to $ /t fob. OUTLOOK: Strong through Q1, but always likely to be volatile Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 US Gulf Interest for March barges has helped prices to firm. In January prices have traded in a $ /st fob Nola range, while the forecast range was $ /st for January. Further upside appears limited since there are concerns over the amount of imported material still to arrive. OUTLOOK: Upside still coming, but could be restrained Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 2 of 11

3 Forecast summary Highlights Limited supply from Egypt firming market Chinese urea out until July US to be main price setter in March-April India to tackle subsidy issues New supply due on-stream from Middle East Deficit projected for February-March The next three months The urea market is firm entering the peak demand period in the northern hemisphere. Crop prices are good, Chinese exports are over until July and Egyptian supply remains cut back by gas supply issues. Prices for prilled urea have risen to $435/t fob Yuzhny at the time of writing, while granular urea is priced over $/t fob Egypt and $450/t fob Middle East. The market has momentum and further price increases are forecast for February and first half March. Our trade balance shows a deficit of over 200,000t for February-March, with a smaller deficit persisting in April. The deficit is most evident for prilled urea. Traders have taken long positions on Yuzhny urea for February and are bidding for March tonnage now. Producers in the Black Sea sold out for February very early and will hold out for higher prices for March. Buyers in Latin America and southern Europe have already bought at netbacks of $ /t fob Yuzhny. There is no competition from Chinese prills until July. Some buyers will wait a few weeks until second half March shipment is offered, in the hope of lower prices, but the main threat to further prices rises is that the rate of increase becomes too rapid and buyers are deterred. The granular market is also tight. Demand in southern Europe will ease in the second half of February, but Europe has sucked in about 200,000t of Middle East urea to compensate for lower shipments from Egypt. Attention is turning to the US, which will be the main price setter for March-April. Price comparisons Price Change* Average monthly price for January $/t Yuzhny prilled urea fob bulk 397 t Arab Gulf granular urea non US netbacks fob bulk 414 t China prilled fob bulk 395 t Egypt granular urea fob bulk 480 t US Gulf granular pst barge 415 t UAN Nola (short ton) 307 t UAN Yuzhny fob 295 t Yuzhny ammonia fob 595 u Yuzhny AN fob 319 t Averaged forecast averages for Feb, Mar, Apr Yuzhny prilled urea fob bulk 423 t Arab Gulf granular urea non US netbacks fob bulk 428 t China prilled fob bulk nm 34 Egypt granular urea fob bulk 490 t US Gulf granular pst barge 440 t Feedstock costs Henry hub ($/MMBtu) 3.3 u Nymex (month ahead, $/MMBtu) 3.28 u TTF (month ahead, Euro/MWh) 25.7 u Average monthly Nitrogen comparison for January $/Unit N UAN Nola (short ton) 9.6 t UAN Yuzhny fob 9.2 t Yuzhny ammonia fob 7.3 u Yuzhny AN fob 9.5 t Yuzhny prilled urea fob bulk 8.6 t * Change is from previous month s report We do not anticipate a repeat of the surge in prices seen in February-April 2012, however. Prices rose $300/t in two months last spring. This year, we estimate imports are running over 40% higher from offshore and the earlier buying should prevent a major urn up in price. Asian markets are quiet. India will tender next for urea for April shipment. The low demand is balanced by low exports from China. The next 3-6 months May-July is forecast to be a period of price correction in the urea market. Our trade balances show a substantial surplus Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 3 of 11

4 bull European markets still in peak period, although southern Europe will begin to tail off Production problems in Egypt are persisting and lending uncertainty to market Chinese prilled urea in bonded warehouse is now sold out; some granular remaining bear US urea imports are still running ahead of last year, lowering the chances of a price spike India is focusing on politics rather than urea buying; Pakistan looks comfortable for Rabi New supply of granular urea should start to flow from Fertil II during the second quarter each month. Indian buying will commence, favouring Iranian exporters, but demand in most other regions will ease. Prices are forecast to fall back below $400/t fob Yuzhny and below $415/t fob Egypt. New supply from Fertil s plant in Abu Dhabi should start to flow in Q2, adding to the spot availability from the region months forward Chinese exports will dominate markets in Asia and Pacific Rim countries in the second half of the year, on the assumption that they approach or exceed the level of Chinese suppliers will benefit from a slightly more favourable tax regime in 2013 that will reduce costs by about $20/t. The huge build up in capacity seen in will ensure there is more urea available to export. Prices are forecast to fall during the second half of 2013 as a result. Forecast by origin Yuzhny Prilled urea prices have risen to $435/t fob in sales for March shipment, from $395/t fob in January. Buying by traders for Italy, Turkey and Spain accounted for most of the increases. Ukrainian producers are also seeing increased domestic demand that has cut export availability for February and March. Traders are already buying for March shipment, in anticipation of demand from Latin America and West Africa, besides southern Europe. Prilled urea is forecast to rise to $ /t fob for March shipments, before starting to ease for April. Middle East Middle East producers are sharing some of the gains seen in Egypt, thanks to the shortage created in the West. Prices have risen as high as $450/t fob in spot sales. Contract shipments to Thailand are netting back in the low-$400s/t fob, making slow progress upwards. We are forecasting increases to $ /t fob in February and March, with price levels becoming more dependent on the US market and less on Europe. This is equivalent to $ /st fob Nola for barges. Asian markets will remain relatively low priced. There is an estimated ,000t of Chinese granular urea remaining in bonded warehouses that can be released onto the market. Indonesia is selling 60-90,000t/month of granular urea that also provides competition for Middle East urea in Asian markets. China Prilled urea has largely disappeared from the market, with stocks in bonded warehouses exhausted. We estimate that ,000t of granular urea remain in bonded stores. Asking prices for it have moved to $ /t fob, although the most recent sales have been from positions taken below $420/t fob. Exports are reported at 1.66m tonnes of urea in December 2012, an enormous quantity for a month which is well past the end of the low tax period. If this number is confirmed, it means that China exported nearly 7m tonnes of urea in Exports are unlikely to fall in 2013: the export tax regime is slightly more favourable; and the rate of capacity increase is large. Capacity went up 7.44m tonnes in 2012, according to CNCIC. Another 6m tonnes/year of new capacity is scheduled in large new plants in Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 4 of 11

5 Main price changes from previous report: Yuzhnyy prills The high-ends for February and March have been increased to $455/t fob and $450/t fob. Our balances still indicate a softening in the second quarter, although the high-end has been increased by $25/t and our range is $ /t fob. The fourth quarter is still projected to be in heavy surplus and the low-end has been decreased by $5/t, and our range is now $ /t fob. Arabian Gulf The February range has been increased to $ /t fob from $ /t fob in our previous report. The peak price for the calendar year is projected at $465/t fob. The third quarter is unchanged in a $ /t fob range, while our fourth quarter projection has had $5/t knocked off the low-end giving $ /t fob. China prilled The export tax window will be lowered in the third quarter, and the re-entry price is projected in a $ /t fob range, which is unchanged from our previous forecast. The fourth-quarter projected range is maintained at $ /t fob. Egypt Projected prices for February and March have been revised at levels above $/t fob. For the second quarter, the range has been increased by $30/t to $ /t fob. For the third quarter, the forecast range has been increased at the high-end by $20/t, bringing the new range to $ /t fob. The fourth quarter price has been increased by $10/t at the highend, bringing the range to $ /t fob. US Granular barge The February and March ranges are revised higher to $ /st and $ /st. The low-end for the second quarter is increased by $10/st but the high-end is unchanged, with range currently projected at $ /st fob. The high-end for the third quarters is still pegged at $400/st fob, moving up to $410/st in Q4. Egypt Export prices have moved up with each successive sales to reach $495/t fob in late January. Trader sales have taken place at $510/t fob to Turkey. Exports remain cut back. Production at OCI s plants was down for most of January. Alexfert has also faced sporadic stoppages and reduced operating rates the rest of the time. The two state-owned producers, Helwan and Mopco, appear to be faring better, operating all the time, generally at or above 60-70% operating rate. This situation is likely to endure through February and March. As a result, prices are forecast to rise to $ /t fob during February for prompt shipments and to remain above $/t fob through March. US Gulf Granular urea prices in Nola have fluctuated in a range between $397 and $442/st fob over the past month. Prices have traded towards the higher end of the range more recently and are forecast to trend upwards over the next 60 days. Forecasts of the planned corn area have risen to 99m acres, with the concomitant need for huge quantities of nitrogen. Most of the recent price rise is due to inter-trader activity. Demand from dealers is expected to emerge in second half February and March, pushing prices to $ /st fob Nola. We doubt there will be a massive run up in prices in spring The quantity of urea booked to arrive from offshore July-February is nearly 50% above the five-year average at 4.2m tonnes. Given that the record figure for full year imports is 6.15m tonnes and allowing for Canadian supplies and prilled urea imports, this implies only another -600,000t of urea are needed from offshore to meet requirements. forecast trade balance ( 000t) 1, 1, Feb Mar Apr Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 5 of 11

6 Demand Outlook Europe and the US will take centre stage as the driving markets in the next two months. Although there will be less support from southern Europe where the market will probably run out of momentum by February. Mexico is active, while India is out. Turkey should buy strongly, and Thailand to a lesser degree. Brazil will buy, but not if prices run up too quickly. United States The quantity of granular urea booked to arrive from offshore July-February is estimated close to 4.2m tonnes, 39% ahead of This implies that spot imports in March and April could be relatively restrained, lower than the 1.6m short tons that arrived in March-April There is little change in crop futures are from our previous report. December 2013 prices for corn are still under $6/ bu at around $5.90/bu, while wheat is still over $8/bu. Forecasts of corn area centre on 99m acres for 2013, about 2m acres more than in Mexico Another round of purchasing takes this market to nearly 200,000t for the YTD. This is roughly level with last year. March should be a strong month, for granular urea as well as prills. Import figures for January-October 2012 are 1.3mn tonnes, which is around 200,000t ahead of For 2013, our estimate is slightly higher, 1.5mn tonnes, based on higher corn production and the government s desire to reduce corn imports. Brazil This market is easing its way into the New Year, and has not yet started to flex its muscle. Buyers of prilled urea are unwilling to pay ever increasing prices and are indicating that they will wait. The main requirement for February- March is for sugar cane and coffee, for which buyers are seeking ammonium nitrate. appears to be in better shape than in Production is up by 300,000t YOY, and imports are 600,000t ahead. No further import buying will take place until the new fiscal year, starting April. This is the time of year when politics rather than purchasing dominates. There were reports in January that the subsidy bill for is running at 69% above the allocated amount. In order to trim the budget for the next fiscal, the finance ministry is proposing a 10% increase in urea prices for fiscal , as well as a reduction in subsidy on phosphates and potash. There were calls for an increase of 10% in 2012, but that was eventually reduced to 1%. Pakistan This market is scheduled to receive three cargoes 75-90,000t - from Sabic in Q1. Availability for Rabi is viewed as adequately covered by the NFDC. However, this is based on imports of 200,000t January-March, which is unlikely, and production at ,000t/month. No new import purchasing is expected before Q2. Urea offtake recovered in December 2012, compared with the preceding two months. Off-take was 953,000t in December, which represented an increase of 35% compared Summary of demand for main markets Import requirement 2013 Estimated purchases YTD Outlook Import volumes yet to US (July ,000-6,300 4,300-4, arrive which is weighing June 2013) on Nola activity India (April 2012 March 2013) 6,-7,000 6,950 Tendering programme for 2012/2013 complete Thailand 2,200-2, Demand should pick up An initial figure for 2012 urea imports is now available, although it may well be erroneous: for January-December urea imports were 2.9mn tonnes, down by 5.4% on For the month of December, imports of 570,000t tonnes were reported, which would be exceptionally high and not anticipated from the number of sales reported. India Urea sales for April-December 2012 were roughly level with those in the corresponding period in 2011: 22.06mn tonnes against 21.95mn tonnes the year before. The market Brazil 2,800-2, Turkey 1,100-1, Australia 1,-1, France 1,100-1, Buyers resisting price increases Strong buying should continue Will step-up import volumes from March More Qatari urea on its way to Atlantic ports Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 6 of 11

7 to the corresponding month in Bangladesh BCIC is receiving the final shipments from Saudi Arabia and Qatar under the 2012 contracts. BCIC renewed the contracts with Saudi Arabia (200,000t), Qatar (400,000t) and Abu Dhabi (200,000t) for It scrapped its 8 January tender for urea and has issued a new tender, closing on 11 February, for 25,000t of granular urea for shipment to Chittagong and 25,000t for Mongla West Africa A decision is pending in the tender for 17,000t of urea and 23,000 NPKs that closed on 16 January for Benin. A tender for 12,000t of urea closed on 25 January for Togo. Purchasing has begun for Nigeria, with 30-40,000t of prilled urea booked for February shipment from the FSU. Exports from Nigeria will cease after February and production from Notore will move domestically. In Ethiopia, the ministry of agriculture issued a new tender for urea, closing on 7 February, for 77,000t of urea for March-April. Spot sales are taking place from the Middle East for Sudan. Thailand Demand for urea is expected to remain around 2.3m tonnes in Imports in January are estimated at ,000t, covered almost entirely by contract cargoes. Cfr prices for granular urea are among the lowest in the world, so little spot tonnage is workable into Thailand. Contract suppliers are also limiting loadings for February: Sabic plans only 50,000t and Yara 45,000t in February. Australia While the summer temperatures soar, this market is being served by low-volume contract cargoes. Imports for January-November were roughly level with 2011 at 1.4mn tonnes. Deliveries will peak in the second quarter in time for winter wheat sowing in May/June. Turkey Turkey is buying urea heavily in Q1, with importers paying the higher asking prices for Yuzhny and Romanian product. January imports are expected to be well over 100,000t, with 70,000t shipped from Yuzhny alone. Buying for February is already 60-70,000t. In the past two years, Q1 imports have typically been around 350,000t. West Europe Italy and Spain have been the most active import markets in the region since the start of the year. Both markets were short of granular urea due to the reduction in exports from Egypt and delayed buying by farmers. Demand from Italy is estimated at over 100,000t in January and there is continued interest for February. In Spain, mid- February is a cut-off point for shipments from Egypt/the Black Sea otherwise deliveries are too late for application on wheat. France appears to be well placed in terms of urea supply for the season. Imports in the first five months of the year were up 48% over the previous year and Unifa statistics up to the end of October show deliveries of urea up a massive 91% year-on year. While consumption is expected to increase this year, the supply restrictions in Egypt that are forcing up prices in southern Europe are of less concern in France. It is estimated that only ,000t of urea remains to be covered for the period through June In Northern Europe, fertilizer demand in the UK is depressed by very wet conditions that cut planting of autumn cereals by 30-40%. Germany imported about 24% less urea July-November 2012 than the previous year and looks short on paper. However, CAN is competitively priced and may take some market share back this year, due to the higher price and tighter supply of granular urea. Export Supply Outlook One of the additions to our new-look Urea Monthly Outlook is a chart showing forward TTF natural gas prices for the next four quarters, which will run alongside our regular TTF month-ahead chart. In this section, we outline our production cost estimates for the main swing production locations for urea. Production costs Developments this month include: 1) Ukraine Establishing a reliable Q1 gas price for endusers remains difficult. A range of $ /MMBtu is still regarded as appropriate by industry sources, leaving our cost estimate unchanged at $ /t fob. 2) China - An anthracite price of Rmb900/t is used in this month s production estimate. Demand for anthracite should ease ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Based Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 7 of 11

8 on a slightly higher anthracite input cost, our production estimate has been revised upwards to $ /t fob. 3) The spot price of the Henry Hub is currently around $3.30/MMBtu. Across the US, temperatures have thawed and this has contributed to a fall in the last weeks of January, according to the EIA. The February contract expired 29 January at $3.23/MMBtu. The front-month on Nymex, the March 2013 contract, began the month at $3.55/MMBtu but has since fallen to $3.28/MMBtu. natural gas ttf month ahead TTF forward curve The February TTF contract expired at 25.60/MWh on 31 January, having reached 27.68/MWh around 8 January. The day-ahead price is currently /MWh, and is currently tracking the March 2013 contract. Forward contract prices for Q have fallen to a /MWh range, down from the /MWh range published in our 15 January outlook. Q has decreased to around 25/MWh from 28/MWh. Chart titled Natural gas TTF quarterly forward curve : the graph shows the evolution of fowrard quarterly prices, illustrating the broad shape of forward pricing over time. the source for this chart and the Natural Gas TTF Month Ahead is Argus European Natural Gas. The table (page right) gives an average FOB production cost comparison for some of the major urea producing regions. The following assumptions have been mentioned in previous issues and used to derive the costs: 1) Transport costs to Yuzhny vary depending on distance from the port. An average of $15pt has been applied for transport to the port. 2) China - the illustration below shows urea production based on anthracite. Plant updates Egypt Urea production is down at both of OCI s EFC plants, possibly for February. Mopco and Helwan Fertilizer plants are operating and both are likely to have urea to sell in the coming week. Alexfert suffered from restricted gas supply on 31 January. Saudi Arabia The Safco 3 granular urea plant (capacity 600,000t/y) is scheduled to resume production at the start of February after a 20-day closure for maintenance. Brazil There are unconfirmed reports of production problems at Petrobras plants that could reduce output by 80-90,000t in Q Jan 9 Jan 16 Jan 23 Jan 30 Jan natural gas ttf quarterly forward curve Q Q Q Q Urea production costs Country Feedstock Cost $pt fob Ukraine Natural Gas $/MMBtu N America Natural Gas $/MMBtu W Europe Natural Gas $/MMBtu China 01 Feb Jan 13 Anthracite-based producer $/tonne anthracite del. * excludes export tax during low-tax window 2013 Argus FMB East Europe Fertilizer Conference and Exhibition Late June, Budapest, Hungary www. argusmedia.com/fertilizer-east-europe * Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 8 of 11

9 Netbacks Prices climbed last week, taking netbacks to the Baltic and Black Sea above $400/t fob. One Turkish buyer has bought 25,000t of prilled urea at $431/t cfr Iskenderun with 180 days. Freight is estimated at $13/t giving a netback of $418/t. Another Turkish buyer has bought 10,000t Egyptian granular urea at $510/t fob Damietta for the first-half February loading. Fertil sold 25,000t granular urea for February shipment to Europe at $ /t fob. The buying pool in Mexico bought 25,000t of prilled urea from Uralchem at close to $446/t cfr for prompt shipment to 3 ports on the east coast. Freight is estimated at in the mid to high $30s/t from St Petersburg. netback to Egypt of $ /t fob based on freight for a small cargo. For Thailand, contract prices have moved up to the $420s/t and will go higher for February loading. The mid-point of the US Gulf cfr metric is $470/t cfr, which gives a netback to Egypt of $445/t fob, and a similar netback to the Arab Gulf given that freights are similar because of the difference in vessel size. The differential between US netbacks and those obtainable in Turkey suggest that Egyptian tonnes will not be flowing to the US in the next month. Argus ipad app The Argus ipad app provides live, mobile access to energy and fertilizer news, prices and analysis. In Brazil, prilled urea prices have moved up to $430/t cfr, which would offer a netback of around $400/t fob to either the Baltic or Black Sea. The latest prices in the French Atlantic port La Pallice are /t fca, equivalent to $ /t fca and give a Download the app from the Apple App Store or visit our website urea delivered prices $470/t $??/t $540/t $408/t $400/t $418/t $431/t $507/t $400/t $446/t (prilled) $445/t $403/t $445/t $425/t $430/t (prilled) Delivered price Netback price The rectangle shape gives the delivered price in a particular region. The oval shapes show the netback to sellers in different regions. You match them by colour. It must be remembered that the illustration does not take volume into account. Freight is based on typical cargo sizes. Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 9 of 11

10 CAPACITY Urea Projects 2012/2013 Country Company Location Capacity addition 000 mt Date on-stream Qatar Qafco Mesaieed/Qafco V Qatar Qafco Mesaieed/Qafco IV Vietnam PetroVietnam Ca Mau Algeria Sorfert Algerie (Orascom/Sontrach) Arzew Russia Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat Salavat UAE Fertil II Ruwais Egypt Mopco/ENPC Damietta Venezuela IPSL Moron Algeria AOA Arzew Total Prills Russia PhosAgro Cherepovets 2012 Russia Acron Novgorod Total 830 US Nitrogen capacity additions Company Location Products 000 st product Scheduled completion US Summit Texas Urea US CF Industries Iowa/Louisiana Various 2-2, US Agrium Texas Urea US Ohio Valley Resources Indiana Ammonia UAN 820 US OCI Iowa Various 1,-2, US CHS North Dakota Various 2, Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd Page 10 of 11

11 Argus FMB Monthly Urea Outlook Issue Monday 4 February 2013 Updated Trade balance - combined prilled and granular urea Urea trade balance February March April Q Q Q Q EXPORT TOTAL West Europe East Europe Black Sea Baltic Africa Americas Middle East Asia China IMPORT TOTAL Europe Africa N. America C. America + Caribbean S. America South Asia India SE & E Asia Oceania BALANCE Argus FMB Monthly Urea Outlook is published by Argus Media Ltd. Registered office Argus House, 175 St John St, London, EC1V 4LW Tel: Fax: sales@argusmedia.com ISSN: Copyright notice Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this publication and the information published herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this publication you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, FMB, ARGUS FMB MONTHLY UREA OUTLOOK, other ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit for more information. Disclaimer The data and other information published herein (the Data ) are provided on an as is basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law. Publisher: Adrian Binks Chief operating officer: Neil Bradford Global compliance officer: Jeffrey Amos Commercial manager: Jo Loudiadis Editor in chief: Ian Bourne Managing editor: Cindy Galvin Senior Analyst: Luke Hutson Tel: fertilizer@argusmedia.com Customer support and sales: support@argusmedia.com London, UK Tel: Astana, Kazakhstan Tel: Beijing, China Tel: Dubai Tel: Moscow, Russia Tel: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Tel: Singapore Tel: Tokyo, Japan Tel: Argus Media Inc, Houston, US Tel: Argus Media Inc, New York, US Tel: Fertilizer illuminating the markets