MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER

Transcription

1 MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER THE UPSHOT FROM THE 1 ST DEBATE APRIL 18 EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO

2 BREAKING NEWS: THE FIRST TV DEBATE - THE UPSHOT THE UPSHOT: Anaya could rise in polls, gaining some momentum and securing 2 nd place..but AMLO s huge lead in polls is unlikely to be threatened, for now WERE TV DEBATES RELEVANT IN LAST TWO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS? OUR TAKE: NO BIG NEWS SUGGESTS NO BIG CHANGES TO THE SCENARIO AMLO played it safe by avoiding direct clashes and controversial speeches By far the target of attacks by rivals, his proposal on amnesty was his Achilles heel Anaya was perceived as the winner of the debate, with a focus on proposals which could make some undecided voters sway to his side Meade didn t bring anything new, and could lose strategic votes, pundits say WHO WON THE FIRST TV DEBATE? Reforma poll with 9 local leaders: Ricardo Anaya Lost the debate Won the debate Total electorate 87 million 68 José Meade Zavala El Bronco Meade AMLO Anaya 13.7 million Mexicans watched the debate by the TV ElUniversal poll with k readers: Source: Reforma, El Universal, Milenio, Imagen, Nielsen, BNP Paribas 95 Candidate with the best proposals Most well prepared candidate Most attacked candidate April 24, 18 2

3 BREAKING NEWS: WHAT AN AMLO GOV T WOULD LOOK LIKE? Uncertain Could change vote Certaint of vote AMLO Anaya Meade Zavala CRUNCH TIME FOR 2 ND PLACE A third of the voters say they could change their mind CLICK HERE TO SEE WHO THOSE UNRELIABLE VOTERS COULD END UP VOTING The two most market-friendly candidates, José Meade and Ricardo Anaya, are in a tight race to see who emerges as the main challenger to AMLO s lead, now wider AROUND 25% OF MEXICAN VOTERS REMAIN UNDECIDED; SEE WHO THEY ARE Ricardo Anaya José Meade AMLO has consolidated his position in the first place OUR UPDATED POLL OF POLLS Polls until the first debate saw AMLO s lead increase, to around pp in some A flurry of negative news has slowed Mr Anaya s upward move Mr Meade and Mrs Zavala have regained some ground AMLO: Typical voter Anaya: Typical voter Meade: Typical voter 4 Andrés Manuel López Obrador WHAT AN AMLO ADMINISTRATION WOULD LOOK LIKE? CLICK HERE FOR THE POLICY PROPOSALS PEMEX & ENERGY POLICY AMLO S CABINET + NAFTA TALKS CHIEF NEW MEXICO CITY AIRPORT AMLO Feb-6 Feb-12 Feb-18 Click here to compare 6, 12 and 18 PAN Source: Pollsters, El Universal, Milenio, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 3

4 The image part with relationship ID rid1 was not found in the file. TV SPOTS STRATEGIES WHICH ALLIANCE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY? You know who - AMLO continued his attempt in reducing resistance from middle income voters by presenting more moderate views - He rebuked the PRI s fear strategy with TV spots targeting the rise in corruption and crime during recent years Miedo o Meade - The ruling party PRI took a jab at AMLO with TV spots showing people on the street worried about a drop in foreign investment, currency depreciation, or about an amnesty for criminals if the leftist party wins - Meade presents himself as a trust-worthy citizen, who would bring stability and no big surprises Imagine a new Mexico - Ricardo Anaya has been focusing on a modern Mexico in his proposals and as well as campaigns - Special attention was given to his universal minimum income proposal, presenting the numbers and the supporters behind it Source: Candidates YouTube channels, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 4

5 OUR TAKE 1ST TV DEBATE In a nutshell Lorem Ipsum Leading candidate López Obrador (AMLO) ended up appearing as evasive and not willing to compromise, but at the same avoided controversial statements and significant damage. Anaya may have won the debate with an effective strategy, according to political analysts and postdebate exit polls We won t be surprised to see the debate to have some impact on polls, likely in favour of Mr Anaya, though probably not enough as to place AMLO s two-digit advantage in peril. Overview Lorem Ipsum The topics of the debate were insecurity and corruption though it may have very well been all against AMLO. Overall, the attacks were well articulated and AMLO failed to answer criticism and direct questioning. Anaya, on the other hand, delivered attacks, proposals and answers rather effectively, according to pundits. He was the most effective in administrating time strategically, according to pundits. Meade followed the textbook, carefully weighing his attacks on AMLO and Anaya, and stressing his proposals clearly and offering continuity to the current regime s policies. Relevance Lorem Ipsum AMLO missed the opportunity to change the bad perception about his criminal amnesty proposal. Anaya didn t face strong attacks regarding his alleged involvement in a money laundering case. Meade offered continuity and stability, in precise speeches, but lacked charisma and appeal Source: Candidates YouTube channels, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 5

6 CONTENTS 1 POLLS 2 VOTER PROFILES This is an interactive menu. Clink on the boxes to navigate through the file 3 SCHEDULE & PROPOSALS 4 BIOS & PARTIES NEW CONTENT UPDATED CONTENT 5 HISTORICAL SERIES BY CANDIDATE DEMOGRAPHICS CALENDAR MORENA (AMLO) PRESIDENT APPROVAL REJECTION LOCATION WHAT S AT STAKE? WHAT WOULD AN AMLO CURRENT CONGRESS POTENTIAL GAIN ISSUES POLITICAL SPECTRUM ADMINISTRATION LOOK LIKE? PAST ELEC. POLLS UNDECIDED VOTERS SOURCES OF NEWS POLICY PROPOSALS PRI MEADE REGIONAL ASPECTS CONGRESS SOCIAL MEDIA NEW AIRPORT FRENTE ANAYA DATA IN ELECTIONS PREDICTION MARKET BY REGION OUR RECENT WORK OUR TEAM TRENDS BREAKING NEWS ENERGY POLICY INDEPENDENTS To return to this menu, click on the menu icon; to navigate through REFORMS: AT RISK? slides, click on the arrows OUR TAKE SIMULATING SCENARIOS: THE STRATEGIC VOTE COMPARING 6, 12 AND 18 TV DEBATES: DO THEY MATTER? April 24, 18 6

7 CONTENTS NEW CONTENT UPDATED CONTENT 1 POLLS 2 VOTER PROFILES 3 SCHEDULE & PROPOSALS 4 BIOS & PARTIES 5 HISTORICAL SERIES BY CANDIDATE DEMOGRAPHICS CALENDAR MORENA (AMLO) PRESIDENT APPROVAL BY VOTE IN 12 TV SPOTS WHAT S AT STAKE? WHAT WOULD AN AMLO CURRENT CONGRESS POTENTIAL GAIN ISSUES POLITICAL SPECTRUM ADMINISTRATION LOOK LIKE? PAST ELEC. POLLS UNDECIDED VOTERS SOURCES OF NEWS POLICY PROPOSALS PRI MEADE REGIONAL ASPECTS CONGRESS SOCIAL MEDIA NEW AIRPORT FRENTE ANAYA DATA IN ELECTIONS PREDICTION MARKET LOCAL ELECTIONS OUR RECENT WORK OUR TEAM TRENDS BREAKING NEWS ENERGY POLICY REFORMS: AT RISK? CONGRESS WALL OUR TAKE INDEPENDENTS SIMULATING SCENARIOS: THE STRATEGIC VOTE COMPARING 6, 12 AND 18 TV DEBATES: DO THEY MATTER? April 24, 18 7

8 18 ELECTION CALENDAR Campaigns officially start 3 - TV spots start to air 22-1 st TV Debate 12-3 rd TV Debate - 2 nd TV Debate 3- TV spots end 3 New Congress inauguration 1 st New president takes office January February March April May June July September December 11 Deadline for the registration of candidacies 13 FIFA World Cup starts 3- Deadline for registration of electoral platforms 13 Pre-campaigns officially conclude Source: INE,, BNP Paribas July 1 st Elections day (one-round decision) Vote for president, all Congress, 7 states governors, plus Mexico City mayor Preliminary results on the same day April 24, 18 8

9 1. POLLS April 24, 18 9

10 VOTER PREFERENCES POPULARITY OF CANDIDATES This doesn t seem to be a competitive race, but dramatic shifts could happen during the campaigning period Leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has consolidated as the frontrunner and his lead has increased Centre-right Ricardo Anaya and José Meade are vying to be the main opponent to AMLO, and both face a tough race IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU CHOOSE? (% of total response) Around 1 in every 4 Mexicans say they remain undecided see their profile Check here candidates' position in the political spectrum Source: Buendia y Laredo, Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, Suanse, Parametria, Massier Callier, Reforma,BNP Paribas April 24, 18 1

11 VOTER PREFERENCES POPULARITY OF CANDIDATES The presidential election on 1 July 18 promises to be a competitive race The left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has an early edge over the other candidates Ricardo Anaya has been on an upward trend, consolidating his position in second place IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU CHOOSE? (% of total response) AMLO (MORENA) José Meade (PRI) Anaya (Frente/PAN) Mitosfky (Mar) Buendia y Laredo (Jan) ElFinanciero (Feb) Reforma (Feb) Average of last polls 7 Zavala (Ind.) Pedro de Con (Ind.) "El Bronco" (Ind.) Source: Buendia y Laredo, Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, Reforma BNP Paribas CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS ON METHODOLOGY April 24, 18 11

12 VOTER PREFERENCES UNDECIDED VOTERS PROFILE José Meade faces the highest rejection rate among undecided voters, and Anaya, the lowest Around a third of the voters in the South and in the North remain undecided The indecision rate is the highest among lower-to-middle class Mexicans WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD YOU NEVER VOTE FOR? (% among undecided voters only) HOW DID YOUR ECONOMIC SITUATION EVOLVED UNDER PEÑA NIETO S ADMINISTRATION? (% among undecided voters only) Improved José Meade 33 AMLO 24 Deteriorated Ricardo Anaya 21 An independent UNDECIDED VOTERS, BY INCOME GROUP (%) UNDECIDED VOTERS, BY REGION (% among those surveyed) Mexico City 26 North 3 Centre-West 25 South & Southeast Source: ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitofsky, BNP Paribas *The size of the pie charts correspond to the weight of each region in Mexico s population. 31 Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Strategic vote? See here how voters could change their preference for candidates closer to the election day Lower-middle class Lower class April 24, 18 12

13 VOTER PREFERENCES BASED ON VOTE IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS CURRENT VOTING INTENTION VERSUS VOTE IN 15 MID-TERM ELECTIONS (%) CURRENT VOTING INTENTION VERSUS VOTE IN 12 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (%) Source: Mitofsky, BNP Paribas, April 24, 18 13

14 VOTER PREFERENCES POTENTIAL ELECTORATE OPINION ABOUT CANDIDATES (March 18) Left-wing AMLO and centre-right Anaya are tied as having the best net perception (when discounting negative from positive perception) Rejection for the ruling party candidate, José Meade, is higher than both opponents AMLO and Anaya AMLO (MORENA) Anaya (Frente) Meade (PRI) Zavala (Independent) "El Bronco" (Ind.) "El Jaguar" (Ind.) % Positive Neutral Negative I don't recognise the name Source: ISA/GEA, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 14

15 VOTER PREFERENCES NAME RECOGNITION Recognition of José Meade s name has climbed by about 3pp since late 17 However, support for the former finance minister has not risen along with the rise in name recognition A majority of Mexicans know AMLO by name, suggesting that he is nearing the ceiling of voting intentions HAVE YOU SEEN OR KNOW THE NAME OF THE PERSON WHO APPEARS ON THIS PHOTOGRAPH? (Feb 18) Never seen him/her I know the face but not the name Yes I know the face and name Source: Buendia y Laredo, BNP Paribas AMLO (MORENA) Ricardo Anaya (PAN/FRENTE) M. Zavala (Ind.) José Meade (PRI) "El Bronco" April 24, 18 15

16 VOTER PREFERENCES BY POPULATION GROUP 7 The youth, men, and those who dislike the president tend to disproportionally favour Lopez Obrador Anaya is more popular among middle-aged men and women from urban centres Meade is stronger in rural areas, a traditional PRI stronghold BY AGE BY GENDER BY LOCALITY BY PRESIDENCY APPROVAL plus Men Women Urban Rural Favourable view of the president Lopez Obrador (AMLO) R. Anaya (Frente) Meade (PRI) Zavala (Ind.) Unfavourable view of the president Source: Mitofsky, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO CHECK MEXICO S DEMOGRAPHICS April 24, 18 16

17 VOTER PREFERENCES ISSUES OF INTEREST Social conditions, insecurity, and corruption have been hot news topics in recent times, making them the key issues during the elections as well Subjects taken into consideration when deciding the vote (% of those surveyed, Mar 18) Fighting poverty Tackling insecurity Reducing corruption Economic policies Protecting indigenous groups Protecting human rights Education policies Position on abortion Decriminalising marihuana Relationship with businessmen Candidate's wealth Candidate's religion Matter little Matter a lot % 5% 1% Most relevant to 85% of AMLO s voters Most relevant to 77% of Anaya s voters Most relevant to 71% of Meade s voters Most relevant to 89% of Zavala s voters Source: Mitofsky, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO CHECK MEXICO S DEMOGRAPHICS April 24, 18 17

18 VOTER PREFERENCES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has key strongholds in the poorer South and in Mexico City Meade leads in the richer North, while Anaya s votes are more spread out Around a third of Mexicans in the South and in the North are still undecided; Those regions concentrate 27% and 29% of the electorate, respectively WHICH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY?* (Mar 18) Centre-West (21%) Undecided 25% Ind. 1% AMLO 24% Undecided 29% Anaya 26% Meade 24% Source: ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas. *The size of the pie charts correspond to the weight of each region in Mexico s population. Ind. 3% AMLO 18% Anaya 21% Meade 29% Ind. 1% North (29%) Mexico City metro (22%) Undecided 26% AMLO 29% Anaya 26% Meade 18% Ind. 2% South & Southeast (27%) Undecided 31% AMLO 37% Anaya % Meade 1% April 24, 18 18

19 VOTER PREFERENCES SIMULATED SCENARIOS MORENA s Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has the potential of gaining the support of PRD voters who are now with FRENTE s Anaya Mr Anaya could regain momentum if he is able to win back PAN voters from independent Zavala The one who emerges as AMLO s strongest opponent could win the support of those who reject him, using the strategic vote RANGE OF POLLS RESULTS, 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AMLO (MORENA) Anaya (Frente) Meade (PRI) Zavala (Independent) El Bronco (Independent) (in pp El of Jaguar voting (Independent) intentions among voters 2.1 that could still change their mind) 6 14 POTENTIAL GAINS VS. LOSSES TAKEN FROM SECOND CHOICE AMONG UNCERTAIN VOTERS Anaya AMLO Meade Zavala % 8% 6% 4% % % AMLO (MORENA) Ricardo Anaya (PAN/FRENTE) José Meade (PRI) 4 59 Independents Could change Certain of vote Vote that could gain Vote that could loose Balance Source: Consulta Mitofsky, Oraculus, ISA-GEA, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 19

20 VOTER PREFERENCES STRATEGIC VOTE Besides the one-quarter of voters who remain undecided, around one-third of those who have declared their support for any of the hopefuls say they could still change their decision Although Mexico does not have a 2 nd round, face-to-face scenarios help simulate potential scenarios in a campaign that just started Those opposing López Obrador could flock to the candidacy which has the strongest odds of beating the left-wing candidate, as it happened in AMLO Anaya Meade Zavala Uncertain Could change vote Certaint of vote 1 3 AMLO vs JOSÉ MEADE Undecided 12% None 36% Meade 23% AMLO 29% AMLO vs RICARDO ANAYA Undecided 9% None 34% Vote if the PRI candidate is leading polls (Jun 6, only among PRI voters) Undecided 3% Anaya 28% AMLO 29% Undecided 12% MEADE vs RICARDO ANAYA None 37% THE STRATEGIC VOTE AMONG PRI VOTERS IN THE 6 ELECTION Votes for the PRI 95% Votes for another party 2% Votes for the PRI 67% 5 Anaya 27% Meade 23% Vote if the PRI candidate is third in polls (Jun 6, only among PRI voters) Votes for another party 28% In 6, polls indicate that 3 in every 1 usual voters of the PRI voted for PAN instead of their party s candidate, due to PRI S third-place in polls Source: Consulta Mitofsky, ISA-GEA, Nexus, BNP Paribas April 24, 18

21 VOTER PREFERENCES UNDECIDED VOTERS UNDECIDED VOTERS BASED ON VOTE IN 15 MID-TERM ELECTION (%) PRI, 1% Not voted, 41% PRD, 22% MORENA, 19% PAN, 8% UNDECIDED VOTERS BASED ON VOTE IN 12 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (%) Undecided voters make up about a quarter of the total electorate, according to pollsters Not voted, 54% AMLO/PRD 8% PRI, 7% PAN, 3% Ricardo Anaya could benefit from the large share of undecided voters who have voted for PAN and PRD before Source: Mitofsky, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 21

22 PARTY PREFERENCES OVER TIME WHAT IS YOUR PERCEPTION OVER EACH POLITICAL PARTY? PARTY IDENTIFICATION (% of those surveyed) PES (right-wing) PT (left-wing) MORENA (left-wing) NA (centrist) PVEM (centrist) PRI (centrist) MC (FRENTE, centre-left) PRD (FRENTE, centre-left) PAN (FRENTE, right-wing) % Positive Neutral Negative I don't recognise the name None PRI MORENA PAN PRD Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Source: ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE FOR PARTY POSITION ON THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM April 24, 18 22

23 PARTY PREFERENCES PERCEPTION OF CANDIDATES SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE A POSITIVE PERCEPTION OVER THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES (%) SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE A NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OVER THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES (%) M. Zavala (Ind.) AMLO (MORENA) M. Zavala (Ind.) AMLO (MORENA) 15 1 R. Anaya (FRENTE) "El Bronco" 15 1 "El Bronco" R. Anaya (FRENTE) 5 J. Meade (PRI) Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 5 J. Meade (PRI) Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Source: Buendia y Laredo,, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY PROPOSALS April 24, 18 23

24 STATE ELECTIONS POLLS & LOCAL MACHINERIES AMLO S MORENA leads in four out of nine states that are holding gubernatorial elections this year This includes Mexico City (7.5 million voters) Parties from the FRENTE coalition lead in the other five, including Jalisco (5.3 million voters) WHICH ALLIANCE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY? States electing new governors in 18, in million of registered voters MORENA leads FRENTE leads Source: Massive Caller, INE,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 24

25 PARTY PREFERENCES CONGRESS All seats of the Congress and Senate are up for election in 18 AMLO s coalition (MORENA-PT-PES) has risen from ~3% to above 4% in polls to the Lower House and the Senate Rolling back the energy reform or any other changes to the constitution requires a 2/3rd majority in Congress VOTING INTENTIONS FOR THE LOWER HOUSE (Apr 18, % of those surveyed) Projections for Lower House VOTING INTENTIONS FOR THE SENATE (Mar 18, % of those surveyed) 4 37% 27% 31% 3 Projections for the Senate 1 AMLO MORENA-PT-PES left wing Governing PRI-PVEM-NA centre 'Frente' PAN-PRD-MC alliance Source: ElFinanciero, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 25

26 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS PREDICTION MARKET WHO WILL BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF MEXICO IN 18? 9 8 AMLO (MORENA) Meade (PRI) 7 Anaya (FRENTE) Zavala (Ind.) % of chance mark See here in real time and for details on methodology Volume of trades Zavala (Ind.) Anaya (FRENTE) Meade (PRI) AMLO (MORENA) In the bets predictions market, Lopez Obrador s chances of winning has consistently remained above 5% Interest in the Mexican election has spiked in the last month Source: PredictIt.com, BNP Paribas *: Data taken from PredictIt..com, which allows you to make predictions on future events by buying shares in the outcome, either Yes or No. Each outcome has a probability between 1 and 99 percent. April 24, 18 26

27 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS PRESS COVERAGE MEDIA COVERAGE (December 17) 13% 18% 5% 47% 19% 2% 4% 59% 23% 76% 39% 12% 3% 59% 58% Meade 764 media prints AMLO 749 media prints Anaya 521 media prints Zavala 272 media prints El Bronco 181 media prints Ricardo Anaya press coverage has turned positive; Lopez Obrador and José Meade lead on total free media airtime Source: El Financiero,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 27

28 2. VOTER PROFILES April 24, 18 28

29 VOTER PROFILES EDUCATION, INCOME AND AGE 6% 42% University degree High school 6% 13% 22% More than 5 min. wages 3-5 minimum wages 2-3 minimum wages 52% Education level Basic education Religion None 6% Others 11% 26% 22% Average income 1-2 minimum wages Less than 1 min. wage 52 4 to 54 26% 55 or more 22% AGE & GENDER 18 to 24 18% 25 to 39 34% 48 Catholic 84% Source: INEGI, ISE-GEA, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 29

30 VOTER PROFILES GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION MEXICO: POPULATION BY STATE Mexico City Total hab. megalopolis is home to 1 in every 4 voters Source: INEGI, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN EACH STATE Around half of the electorate lives in only 1 metropolitan regions April 24, 18 3

31 The image part with relationship ID rid1 was not found in the file. TV SPOTS STRATEGIES WHICH ALLIANCE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY? You know who - AMLO continued his attempt in reducing resistance from middle income voters by presenting more moderate views - He rebuked the PRI s fear strategy with TV spots targeting the rise in corruption and crime during recent years Miedo o Meade - The ruling party PRI took a jab at AMLO with TV spots showing people on the street worried about a drop in foreign investment, currency depreciation, or about an amnesty for criminals if the leftist party wins - Meade presents himself as a trust-worthy citizen, who would bring stability and no big surprises Imagine a new Mexico - Ricardo Anaya has been focusing on a modern Mexico in his proposals and as well as campaigns - Special attention was given to his universal minimum income proposal, presenting the numbers and the supporters behind it Source: Candidates YouTube channels, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 31

32 VOTER PROFILES WHAT MEXICANS WORRY ABOUT WHERE DO YOU BELIEVE MEXICO IS GOING (Mar 18) On the economy (%) On politics (%) Insecurity CRIMES HAVE SPIKED AFTER AN INITIAL DROP SEE HERE WHAT MEXICANS THINK OF AMLO S PROPOSAL FOR SECURITY MEXICO: MAIN CONCERNS (Q4 17) Corruption INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE AND INCLUDE MANY OFFICIALS FROM ALL PARTIES Crime 84% Corrupt politicians 84% Cartel-related violence 82% Inflation 82% Corrupt police 79% 6% 65% 7% 75% 8% 85% 9% Source: ISA-GEA, Pew Research Institute, BNP Paribas Economy INFLATION HAS RISEN FROM 3% TO 6% IN 17 BUT UNEMPLOYMENT IS NEAR LOWS April 24, 18 32

33 VOTER PROFILES ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST 7 in every 1 Mexicans wants the country to continue in NAFTA 8 in every 1 believe the country is facing an economic crisis TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Military 79% Media 76% NGOs 65% Religion 63% Courts 53% Private Federal sector government 5% 49% Police 44% % OF VOTERS WHO AGREE THAT 8% 6% 4% % % 8% 6% 4% % % Unions cause more harm than benefit to society 47% Abortion should be made legal 26% Economy Mexico should continue in NAFTA 68% Civil liberties Marijuana should be legalised 3% Mexico should integrate more with the world 68% LGBT couples should have equal rights to heterosexual 45% Mexico is in an economic crisis 8% Democracy is preferable to authoritarian regimes 59% Source: Pew Research Center, ISE/GEA, Mitofsky, Parametria, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 33

34 VOTER PROFILES SECURITY Security took centre stage from corruption, with homicides at highs AMLO made a controversial amnesty suggestion, which most Mexicans oppose Mexico, Intentional Homicide Rate per 1, Population DO YOU FAVOUR CONTINUITY OR CHANGE OF THE CURRENT SECURITY STRATEGY? (% of those surveyed, Dec 17) 6 Continuity, None of 4 54% both, 28% Amnesty, 11% WOULD YOU AGREE ON AN AMNESTY OF DRUG CARTELS? (% of those surveyed, Dec 17) Source: Buendia y Laredo, INEGI, UN,, BNP Paribas 6 4 Opposes amnesty, 66% Supports amnesty, 23% Unsure/ neutral, 11% April 24, 18 34

35 VOTER PROFILES SOURCES OF NEWS To learn about candidates proposals, how Strategic do you think these are? Public events & rallies Billboards Televised debates Internet ads TV & radio spots % 25% 5% 75% 1% Very efficient Somewhat efficient Not at all Unsure Starting 22 Apr, Mexico holds three televised debates In 6, PAN s Calderón was hurt by his appearance on TV, while in 12 it did little to help either AMLO s or PAN s odds Click here for updated calendar with dates for the TV debates 5 6 election, polls 1 st 2 nd TV debate AMLO PRI PAN 5 12 election, polls 1 st 2 nd TV debate 4 PRI 3 1 AMLO PAN SEE HERE OUR FULL ANALYSIS, BASED ON PAST ELECTIONS DATA: DO TV DEBATES MATTER, OR NOT? Source: Ernst&Young, Pew Research, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 35

36 VOTER PROFILES SOURCES OF NEWS % OF MEXICANS WHO HAVE, IN THE PREVIOUS DAY 6% 4% % % 5 25 Watched TV 69% Once a day Accessed the Internet 49% HOW OFTEN DO YOU USE THE WEB TO GET NEWS? (%) Several times a day Mexico Emerging countries World Source: Ernst&Young, Pew Research, BNP Paribas Listened to the radio 41% Watched cable TV 3% Read newspapers 21% HOW OFTEN DO YOU USE THE SOCIAL MEDIA TO GET NEWS? (%) 5 25 Once a day Mexico Emerging countries Mexicans are avid users of the web, but they consume Several times a day World less news online than the global average CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT THE CANDIDATES BY THEIR POPULARITY IN SOCIAL MEDIA 18 29yo 3 49yo >5yo DAILY USE OF THE INTERNET TO GET NEWS IN MEXICO (%) April 24, 18 36

37 VOTER PROFILES SOURCES OF NEWS HOW OFTEN DO YOU FOLLOW NATIONAL NEWS ON YOUR COUNTRY? 1% 5% % I don't Somewhat closely Very closely Italy Mexico Brazil Indonesia France Russia Chile Canada Spain Israel Argentina UK Colombia Japan Australia Peru India Germany US South Africa Turkey Most Mexicans follow national news at least somewhat closely and see the press in a reasonably positive light (Pew Research) HOW DOES THE PRESS REPORT ON GOVERNMENT LEADERS AND OFFICIALS? (%) Not well Very well Quite well World Latam Mexico HOW ACCURATELY IS THE PRESS IN YOUR COUNTRY REPORTING NEWS? (%) Not well Very well Quite well World Latam Mexico IS THE MEDIA REPORTING DIFFERENT POSITIONS ON POLITICAL ISSUES FAIRLY? (%) Not well Very well Quite well World Latam Mexico Source: Pew Research, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW MEXICANS VIEW ECONOMIC ISSUES April 24, 18 37

38 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS SOCIAL MEDIA IN MILLIONS AMLO Meade Anaya Zavala Source: Media platforms, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 38

39 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS INTEREST IN THE WEB RELATIVE POPULARITY IN WEB SEARCHES, GOOGLE TRENDS (1=max) AMLO Relative popularity on Google, by Mexican states Ricardo Anaya Meade Zavala Elecciones Soccer championship (Liga MX*) AMLO Meade Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Overall, interest in the elections remains relatively low on the web In the 17 regional elections, interest built up in the month just prior to election day Source: Google, BNP Paribas *Liga MX stands for the National Soccer Championship April 24, 18 39

40 3. GENERAL INFO April 24, 18 4

41 WHAT S AT STAKE MEXICO: NATIONWIDE President SIX-YEAR TERM 128 Senators SIX-YEAR TERMS; 1% of the seats 64 senators by relative majority, 32 proportional, 32 minorities 5 Deputies THREE-YEAR TERMS; 1% of the seats 3 by relative majority, proportional Source: INE,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 41

42 WHAT S AT STAKE MEXICO: LOCAL ELECTIONS PARTIES SHARE OF STATE GOVERNSHIPS % % 4% 6% 8% 1% 18 ELECTIONS MAP TO BE DISPUTED Mayors, aldermen, and governor Mayors, aldermen Mayors only Alderman and governor Aldermen only 7 governors + Mexico City mayor The equivalent of 35% of Mexico s GDP will face state elections, for five-year tenures. PRI holds office in more than 5% of the states without gubernatorial elections (who will stay in office) Municipalities Source: INE,, BNP Paribas in 25 states out of a total of 31 states, besides Mexico City April 24, 18 42

43 WHAT S AT STAKE MEXICO CITY LOCAL ELECTIONS MEXICO CITY: VOTING INTENTIONS FOR MAYOR (%, per coalition, Nov 17) Did not declare 24% Indep., 7% FRENTE, % PRI, 13% MORENA- PT, 35% MEXICO CITY: VOTING INTENTIONS FOR MAYOR (%, per party, Nov 17) Mexico City, a PRD stronghold, leans, in general, to the left This time, the race is expected to be fierce between the MORENA and FRENTE (PAN-PRD) candidates Polls, however, suggest that a switch by PRD voters to FRENTE is not that simple, since the number of individual voters is more than the votes in the coalition Source: Consulta Mitosfky, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 43

44 ELECTORAL ADVERTISEMENT TV AND RADIO TIME Parties are forbidden by law to buy TV or radio airtime The Federal Electoral Institute (INE) divides 7% of the airtime proportionally to votes in the last federal election, and 3% uniformly across candidates A total of 59.7 million TV spots, or 34 per day, are scheduled until election day, starting on 3 March Equal for all candidates 3% 14% 35% Proportional to votes 7% 18% 33% Source: INE,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 44

45 PARTIES POLITICAL SPECTRUM CLICK ON THE PARTY LOGOS TO CHECK COALITIONS Left-wing Centre Right-wing Source: ElUniversal,, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE FOR THE MAIN PARTIES PLATFORM April 24, 18 45

46 CANDIDATES POLITICAL SPECTRUM Source: Quarterly Americas,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 46

47 ECONOMIC POLICIES PLATFORM MAIN PROPOSALS Party platforms Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum MORENA (AMLO) PAN (Anaya) PRI (Meade) Economic reforms/pemex referendums on the enacted reforms expanded role for PEMEX, adding two big fuel refineries at least end trade deficits in energy and agriculture Criticism of energy reform but helped to approve it in the past stronger regulatory agencies supports the reforms promises to deepen all changes NAFTA and trade Fiscal policy Doing business Welfare promises to continue with NAFTA; but was fierce opponent in the past active production policies to reduce imports minimum agricultural prices supports the NAFTA deal and trade pacts in general more diversification through ex-nafta countries supports the deal defends ongoing renegotiation process boost public investments and social programmes, but no tax hikes until 26 infrastructure plan worth 4% of GDP three-year plan to reduce public debt defends austerity tax cuts and more spending on public works continue current fiscal consolidation efforts reducing income and payroll taxes boost public development banks stimulate the creation of commercial banks very detailed development scheme made by regular businessmen, not economists do away with red tape and fight corruption at all levels focus on SMEs, with special credit lines increase the minimum wage (Mexico needs to stop suppressing wages ) comprehensive housing scheme a universal salary to tackle poverty update conditional transference schemes broader reach for conditional transference programmes CLICK HERE TO CHECK INITIAL PROPOSALS BY MORENA (Spanish) Source: Party websites, ElUniversal,, Reforma, El Economista, BNP Paribas CLICK ON THE PARTY LOGOS FOR INFORMATION ON COALITIONS April 24, 18 47

48 ECONOMIC POLICIES ENERGY POLICY ARE THE STRUCTURAL REFORMS AT RISK? The state-owned oil company has been under a restructuring in recent years in a bid to improve efficiency and reduce losses Mexico is producing less gasoline and oil byproducts relative to oil output This is not because of lack of installed capacity; for Mexico, gross margins are much higher for producing and exporting crude oil than gasoline MEXICO S GASOLINE CONSUMPTION UTILISATION OF INSTALLED CAPACITY (%), Imports Domestic-sourced Total gasoline consumption (daily barrels, mill) If the Energy Reform is proven to be of no good to the Mexican people ( ) even if it takes us time, we will start a change ( ) we won t accept contracts stained with corruption (22 Mar 18) We shouldn t be importing fuels from the US ( ) I will recover our refineries, and build two new ones ( ) to bring production back home Andrés Manuel López Obrador ( Mar 18) MEXICAN OIL REFINERIES The energy reform is the most important, in economic terms (19 Feb 14) There were gigantic errors in the implementation of the reforms enacted ( ) and we will improve them to have more positive effects Ricardo Anaya (28 Mar 18) Source: PEMEX, El Universal, Milenio,, El Economista, BNP Paribas GROSS MARGINS, PEMEX (USD bn) Gasoline Crude I am in favour of making the energy reform being fulfilled, to bring more jobs and investments (23 Mar 18) We can t buy gasoline that is more expensive abroad and sell it cheaper in Mexico ( ) we would have to pay for it somewhere José Meade (16 Jan 17) April 24, 18 48

49 ECONOMIC POLICIES THE CONGRESS WALL See here updated voting intentions for Congress Many of the proposals put forward by candidates would need the approval of the Congress to be enacted Besides, the federal government s budgets also have to be approved by the Congress and can be amended in legislative sessions No coalition is predicted to gain a simple majority, according to polls, but the fortunes of AMLO s MORENA party have risen in recent polls (see here recent polls for Congress) Which of the candidates proposals would need Congress approval? Proposals that would require Congress approval (majority required) López Obrador (AMLO) Ricardo Anaya José Meade - Referendums on reforms and other subjects (2/3 majority required) - Rolling back energy and education reforms (2/3 majority required) - A recall vote on the president s term every two years (2/3 majority required) - Create a public safety secretariat (simple majority) - Unify careers in the army, the police and navy (simple majority) - Create a replacement to the current General Attorney s office (2/3 majority required) - Eliminate the privileged judging rights of all public servants (2/3 majority required) - Labour reform (2/3 majority required) - Public servants involved in corruption to be barred for life (2/3 majority required) - Equal pay for men and women (2/3 majority required) - Unify the criminal code (2/3 majority required) - Toughen penalties for violence against women and sexual abuse (simple majority) ALL: Approving next year s revenue provisions (Ley de Ingresos) and the federal government s budget Source: Party websites, ElUniversal,, Reforma, El Economista, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 49

50 ECONOMIC POLICIES REFORMS AT RISK? Energy reform Education reform Political reform Social security reform What is it What it takes to make changes López Obrador (AMLO) Ricardo Anaya José Meade Liberalisation of the Mexican energy sector, putting an end to PEMEX and CFE s monopolies on exploration and distribution Constitutional amendment (2/3 of Congress needed to make changes) Implementation of a merit-based system for granting bonuses to teachers; targets for public school students grades Constitutional amendment What the candidates say about the reforms Is against the reform, saying he will respect the rule of law but revise all contracts in place and stall auctions; defends a public referendum so people can decide ; See here who would take office as Energy Secretary if AMLO wins Source: Party websites, ElUniversal,, Reforma, El Economista, BNP Paribas Was a staunch supporter of the liberalisation while in Congress but now deems as unjustified the spikes in electricity and fuel prices Is against the reform, saying the government shouldn t be opposing teachers unions and that its format was imposed by foreigners; Defends a public referendum Supported the change but pledges to apply more ambitious goals More autonomy for the electoral courts and the anti-graft overseer; tighter rules for financing campaigns Simple majority Defends radical changes, says he wishes to appoint prosecutors and overseers without Congress, pledges to slash by half salaries of top officials Defends deeper changes, including full autonomy to the public prosecutor Implementation of a minimum-age (65 y-o and reaching 67 gradually) and tackling fraud in granted benefits Constitutional amendment (2/3 of Congress) Says he will double the value of the minimum pension benefit, provide coverage to all private sector formalised workers, and reduce the role of private institutions in dealing with funds Supports the current framework, but wants to increase the minimum benefit by around 5% One of the key persons of the Peña Nieto administration, openly supports the reforms, sees the need for minor tweaks and adjustments, defends a joint effort with Congress April 24, 18 5

51 ECONOMIC POLICIES THE CONGRESS WALL Many of the candidates proposals would need to pass through Congress to be enacted Besides, federal government s budgets has to be approved by Congress and could be amended in legislative sessions; No coalition is predicted to gain a simple majority, according to polls, but AMLO s MORENA has risen in recent polls Main candidates proposals which would need to face Congress approval Would have to go through Congress (majority required) López Obrador (AMLO) Ricardo Anaya José Meade - Referendums on reforms and other subjects (2/3 majority required) - Rolling back the energy and education reforms (2/3 majority required) - A recall vote on the president s term each two years (2/3 majority required) - Create a public safety secretariat (simple majority) - Unify careers between the military, the police, and the navy (simple majority) - Create a replacement to the current General Attorney s Office (2/3 majority required) - Eliminate the privileged judging rights to all public servants (2/3 majority required) - Labour reform (2/3 majority required) - Life ineligibility for public servants involved in corruption acts (2/3 majority required) - Equal pay for men and women (2/3 majority required) - Unify the criminal code (2/3 majority required) - Toughen penalties for domestic women murders and sexual abuse (2/3 majority required) ALL: approving next year s revenue provisions (Ley de Ingresos) and the federal government s budget Source: Party websites, ElUniversal,, Reforma, El Economista, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 51

52 ECONOMIC POLICIES NEW MEXICO CITY AIRPORT What is it? Why it matters? Why the controversy? The New Mexico City Airport (NAICM, in Spanish), is a USD 13 bn project rolled out by the Peña Nieto (PRI) administration for an alternative to the overcrowded Benito Juarez airport, currently Mexico City s only airport López Obrador (AMLO) has said that if he is voted to power, he would push for annulling the project, saying it would be better to expand the military air base than build a new, costly airport Opponent Ricardo Anaya and PRI s Meade have both voiced support for the airport, referring to its positive economic impact The only functioning airport in the capital that serves some 45-million passengers per year has been operating above full capacity for a while The government estimates the country could loose up to 7pp of GDP until 3 if there s no expansion to Mexico City s air infrastructure Construction has already started and around a third of budgeted funds have been committed According to the consortium responsible for building the airport, work stoppage and paying fines would be more costlier than finishing it AMLO has deemed the project a source of corruption, a waste of government s resources, and in an improper area Investors and local businessmen are said to worry that this is a sign that AMLO might not respect contracts that have already been signed This could be perceived as an antibusiness bias in AMLO s reasoning AMLO We are going to put up two new runways in the Santa Lucia military base ( ) in this more transparent way, construction to the New Airport will be suspended (...) This will be conducted in strict observance of the rule of law, in collaboration with the companies involved and respecting contracts Lopez Obrador (Apr 1) Ricardo Anaya It seems an absurdity to me to talk about going backwards in erecting the New Airport ( ). We should revise all contracts if there is suspicion of corruption, ( ) but cancelling this project would mean wasting money from Mexicans Ricardo Anaya (Mar 23) Source: Party websites, Milenio, El Financiero, El Economista, BNP Paribas José Meade [Cancelling the airport] mean losing 45k jobs, MXN 16 bn already invested ( ), time, efforts, and a huge opportunity to give the country competitiveness ( ) just because of an authoritarian and backward mindset José Meade (Mar 23) April 24, 18 52

53 4. COALITIONS & BIOS April 24, 18 53

54 PARTIES PRI (PARTIDO DE LA REVOLUCCIÓN INSTITUCIONAL) STATES OF MEXICO BY GOVERNING PARTY Ruling party enjoys a knit constituency POSITIVE/NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS ABOUT POLITICAL PARTIES % 37% 29% 27% % 49% % 67% PAN MORENA PRD PRI Favourable Unfavourable Balance Source: ElUniversal, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas -4 PRI IS THE PARTY WHICH HOLDS MOST MAYORSHIPS AND STATES BUT HAS THE HIGHEST REJECTION RATES, BY FAR, AND FACES THE WEAR OF YEARS IN POWER April 24, 18 54

55 CANDIDATES JOSÉ MEADE (PRI) Meade s typical voter is on the extremes of income distribution, is older (31%), has primary schooling or less (31%), lives in rural areas, and skews conservative and/or to the right EDUCATION LEVEL (% of those surveyed) AGE GROUP (% of those surveyed) Primary or less Upper class Middle school High school Upper-middle class Tertiary or more yo yo 4-54 yo 55-+ yo INCOME GROUP (% of those surveyed) José Meade Overall electorate Middle class Lower-middle class José Meade Overall electorate Lower class José Meade Overall electorate BIO Positive Negative Source: parties and candidates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas 48-years-old Born in Mexico City Secretary of Finance (16- present), Social Dev. (15), Foreign Affairs (12-15), Energy (11) Economist and Lawyer (ITAM/Yale) Fiscally conservative, promarket term Fresh face JOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE PRI constituencies and high profile members have united to support him No experience in campaigning April 24, 18 55

56 PARTIES MORENA (MOVIMENTO REGENERACCIÓN NACIONAL) AMLO s typical voter is young could be either rich or poor, lives in cities, and skews conservative and left-of-centre 65-years-old Born in Macuspana Mexico City mayor (-5) President of the PRD party ( ) State leader of the PRI party (1983) Political Sciences (UNAM) Positive He left office as Mexico City s Mayor with an approval rating of 84% and ran a relatively conservative tenure in fiscal terms Negative ANDRÉS MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR Has several times announced opposition to reforms, saying he would push for referendums on policies that have already been approved Might block future oil auctions and delay progress on energy reform Source: parties and candidiates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas EDUCATION LEVEL (% of those surveyed) Primary or less Upper class Middle school High school Tertiary or more AGE GROUP (% of those surveyed) yo yo 4-54 yo 55-+ yo INCOME GROUP (% of those surveyed) Upper-middle class AMLO Middle class Lower-middle class Overall electorate AMLO Overall electorate AMLO Overall electorate Lower class April 24, 18 56

57 AMLO S CABINET EARLY MAIN PICKS Carlos Manuel Urzua Macias (62) Graciela Márquez Colín Olga Sánchez Cordero (62) Economist. Former Finance Minister of Mexico City (-3) Professor/Researcher at Colegio de Mexico and ITESM Defended a long-term approach to public sector finances, imposing debt caps at all levels, and reducing tax evasion Supporter of sustained and substantial GDP growth, direct tax and focalised social programmes to alleviate poverty Why it matters? SECRETARY OF FINANCE Commands fiscal policy, big role in policy making We are pro-free-trade ( ) and [support] NAFTA ( ) but we need to set a clear development strategy for our own producers Historian/Economist. Academic at Colegio de México Has no experience in public office; specialised in the history of Mexican industrialisation, inequality and development Pro import-substitution as a way to achieve development when coupled with macroeconomic stability, criticises neoliberalism Why it matters? SECRETARY OF THE ECONOMY In charge of policies aimed at triggering investment and trade SECRETARY OF OF THE EDUCATION INTERIOR Lawyer. Supreme Court of Justice member Earned a reputation as a progressive justice and outspoken defender of human rights in general, according to Women Inspiring Change Rocío Nahle (53) Héctor Vasconcelos (72) Jesús Seade Kuri We won t be tearing the [energy] reform apart, but we need to make amends There are several cases of highly efficient state-run refineries Chemist. Current coordinator of MORENA deputies Has strongly criticised energy reform and was one of the leading voices against it until recently Defended a "nationalistic" approach to energy where "the state is involved to boost [the sector] and make it a progress tool" Why it matters? Schedule of oil auctions; investor security; reform underway Diplomat. Teacher of Politics at UNAM Economist. Professor in Hong Kong Expert in trade ties between Asia and Latam, was a member of the Salinas administration ( ) and was involved in the negotiations for Mexico to join the GATT in 1986 Why it matters? SECRETARY OF ENERGY SECRETARY OF FOREIGN POLICY Criticised the fact that current NAFTA renegotiation is taking place before the election results No experience in trade deals negotiation CHIEF NEGOTIATOR OF THE NAFTA TALKS A new chief negotiator would likely mean a setback to the NAFTA talks, given the effort in teambuilding, revision to the work and deals that have already been made and a potential change in tone 57

58 PARTIES FRENTE - THE PAN-PRD ALLIANCE 3 1 1% 8% 6% 4% % % PARTY VOTING INTENTIONS 4% 6% 19% SUPPORT FOR THE FRENTE COALITION All voters PAN supporters PRD supporters Not answered Against In favour Right-wing PAN has joined forces with centre-left PRD and MC With this, the coalition potentially amplifies its reach among the people (and breaks its vote intentions ceiling) but could still face resistance from many left-leaning voters for uniting with a right-wing force Source: parties and candidiates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 58

59 RICARDO ANAYA FRENTE : THE PAN-PRD ALLIANCE Positive 38-years-old RICARDO ANAYA Born in Querétaro Right-wing PAN party leader (14-present) Lower House speaker (13-14) Lawyer (UNAM) Young leader; close to many PRD leaders Anaya s typical voter is middle or upper class, mid-aged, welleducated, lives in cities, and skews liberal and to the centre Primary or less EDUCATION LEVEL (% of those surveyed) Middle school High school Tertiary or more AGE GROUP (% of those surveyed) yo yo 4-54 yo 55-+ yo Ricardo Anaya Overall electorate Ricardo Anaya Overall electorate Negative Seen as divisive within some PAN ranks 3 INCOME GROUP (% of those surveyed) Hurt by negative press coverage 1 Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ElEconomista and politicians websites, BNP Paribas Ricardo Anaya Overall electorate April 24, 18 59

60 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES OTHER INDEPENDENTS RIOS PETER JAIME EL BRONCO MARGARITA ZAVALA BIO 66-years-old Born in Mexico City TV anchor and local correspondent (198s-12) Journalist and Entrepreneur (Iberoamericana) Positive Fiscally conservative, pro-market views Fresh face BIO Positive 61-years-old Born in Galeana Nuevo León governor (15-current) Mayor of García, NL (9-12) Engineer (UANL) Won as independent in Mexico s richest state against PRI and PAN High approval ratings when mayor BIO Positive 5-years-old Born in Mexico City First Lady (6-12) Deputy of PAN (3-6) Aldermen PAN ( ) Lawyer/Teacher (Libre Derecho) Her husband Calderón is remembered for tough measures on crime Has loyal supporters among the PAN electorate Negative No experience in politics, public management Negative Most rejected his leaving the state government to run as president Negative Lacks party structure and ranks fourth in overall polls Her exit from PAN did not result in other high-profile exits Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitosfky and politicians websites, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 6

61 5. HISTORICAL SERIES April 24, 18 61

62 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS Approval of president Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is much lower than in previous tenures Peña Nieto has made several structural reforms but has fallen short in tackling corruption and insecurity in the view of most Mexicans, according to surveys DO YOU APPROVE THE PRESIDENT S WORK? Enrique Peña Nieto, PRI (12-18) Vicente Fox, PAN (-6) Year 1, Q1 Year 2, Q1 Year 3, Q1 Year 4, Q1 Year 5, Q1 Year 6, Q1 Felipe Calderón, PAN (6-12) Source: ISA-GEA, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 62

63 CONGRESS AND SENATE COMPOSITION IN THE LAST ELECTION (12) CONGRESS SENATE Source: Congress, Senate, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 63

64 POLLING PATTERN IN PAST ELECTIONS % % % % 22.% 25.7% 1 1 Felipe Calderón (PAN), 35.9% López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 35.5% Roberto Madrazo (PRI), 22.% Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), 38.2% López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 31.6% Josefina Mota (PAN), 25.7% Source: Covarrubia y Asociados, Buendia y Laredo,, Reforma, ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitosfky BNP Paribas April 24, 18 64

65 DATA PATTERN IN PAST ELECTION PERIODS Holding office should help Meade s campaign Still, the weight of government machinery has sensibly diminished overtime, and the 18 budget plans don t signal any push in federal government expenditures this time elections: 3% boost 1988 elections: 22% boost 1994 elections: 21% boost elections: 26% boost 6 elections: 16% boost 12 elections: 1% boost election: 25% boost elections: +5% boost 6 elections: +6% boost 12 elections: +8% boost Government spending (real, % y/y 6mma) -3-4 Investments, construction (sa, y/y 6mma) Source: INEGI, Banxico, Finance Ministry, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 65

66 ELECTION RESULTS, WINNING PARTY BY STATE 6 12 Felipe Calderón (PAN), 35.9% López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 35.3% Roberto Madrazo (PRI), 22.% Josefina Mota (PAN), 25.7% López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 31.6% Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), 38.2% Source: INE, ISA-GEA, BNP Paribas. Colour stands for what party won in each state. April 24, 18 66

67 POLLSTERS TRACK RECORD FROM PAST ELECTIONS AMLO PRI PAN Buendia y Laredo Reforma Parametria Mitofsky ISA-GEA Actual result 15 AMLO PRI PAN Buendia y Laredo Reforma Parametria Mitofsky ISA-GEA Actual result Source: Pollsters, BNP Paribas. Data stands for polls released on the month before the ballotage took place April 24, 18 67

68 HIGHLIGHT COMPARING 6, 12 AND VOTING INTENTIONS AMLO PRI PAN CERTAINTY OF VOTE Source: Mitofsky, Buendia y Laredo, Parametria, Covarrubias y Asociados, BNP Paribas Apr-6 Apr-12 Apr Apr-6 Apr-12 Apr-18 AMLO voters certain of vote PAN voters certain of vote PRI voters certain of vote LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY AMLO is going to win PAN is going to win PRI is going to win Jun-6 Jun-12 Apr-18 REJECTION RATE PRI's candidate AMLO PAN's candidate PRI party PAN party AMLO's party April 24, 18 68

69 ANNEX POLLS METHODOLOGY PARAMETRIA BUENDÍA Y LAREDO (ElUniversal) ISE-GEA MITOFSKY (ElEconomista) EL FINANCIERO Type In-house In-house In-house and by phone In-house In-house and by phone (varies) Survey sampling 8 people Weighted proportionally by size, does not detail metric 5-1, people Weighted by INEGI s 15 survey (gender, age, education, and occupation) 1,6 people Weighted by INE s 17 report on voters (gender, age, education, and occupation) 1, people Weighted by INEGI s 15 survey (gender, age, household wage, and education) 1, people Weighted by INE s 17 report on voters (gender, age, education, and occupation) Survey location Undisclosed Representative in national level; 4 electoral sections covered 1 in the six states surveyed (phone) Other Undisclosed Undisclosed Latest poll Other PRI PAN MORENA Other PRI PAN MORENA Other PRI PAN MORENA Other PRI PAN MORENA Other PRI PAN MORENA Source: Each pollster / research institute, ElUniversal, BNP Paribas April 24, 18 69

70 OUR TEAM LATAM ECONOMIC RESEARCH Marcelo Carvalho Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam (55 11) Gustavo Arruda Brazil (55 11) Florencia Vazquez Argentina and Chile (54 11) Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Colombia and Mexico (55 11) Follow us on April 24, 18 7

71 RECENT PUBLICATIONS COLOMBIA: ELECTION TRACKER BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER MEXICO: NEXT MOVE IS A RATE CUT, WE THINK MEXICO: NAFTA IS A HURDLE RACE, NOT A SPRINT Source: BNP Paribas Market Economics April 24, 18 71