Sitka 2030 Comprehensive Plan. September 6, 2016 Planning Commission Work Session on Sitka s Economy - Presentation by Sheinberg Associates

Transcription

1 Sitka 2030 Comprehensive Plan September 6, 2016 Planning Commission Work Session on Sitka s Economy - Presentation by Sheinberg Associates

2 Sitka Today Sitka 2030

3 Sitka 2030 Comprehensive Plan Purpose, Process, Schedule NOTE: One can reach all the full team (Barbara, Maegan, Michael and Sam)

4 COMP PLAN PURPOSE: Path to Future. Community growth Land use Housing development Transportation and infrastructure investment Recreation Public services and facilities and more It is the Legal Basis for Zoning

5 COMP PLAN PROCESS: For each Topic. Packet 1. Goal(s) 2. Current Situation 3. Likely Future Situation 4. Options to Address 5. Choose Path(s) 6. Set Initiatives + Actions

6 Schedule April-Aug Land Use + Land Management Sept Economic Foundation Oct Housing Nov-Mar Utilities + Transportation Future Growth - R, C, I, Rec Community Services + Facilities Other Apr-May Draft plan review, refine Jun Assembly Adoption

7 Why Discuss the Economy?

8 Understanding the local economy is the foundation for Comprehensive Planning It is hard to make realistic decisions about the future without having a basic understanding of: What makes the economy tick Where opportunities lie (strengths) What challenges must be solved (weaknesses, threats) Does the borough have revenue to support community services, facilities, and infrastructure The goal of this part of tonight s meeting is to get a common understanding of the basics.

9 Triple Bottom Line

10 How Local Economies Work and Grow

11 Bring outside money into Sitka by having a good or service that is purchased Keeps money re-circulating locally by having a good or service bought by a Sitkan Delay it leaking out as long as you can Sharing and bartering keeps $ in town too $ $ $ $ $

12 Hire workers, buy supplies from Seattle, Ketchikan, online Outside Jobs Outside Income Outside Respending Sitka Income Hire workers, buy supplies from Sitka (shop locally) Sitka Jobs Sitka Respending

13 Strategies to Maintain and Grow the Local Economy 1. Support Local Businesses Basic 2. Maintain + Increase Money Coming into Sitka 3. More Local Businesses with Goods and Services for Purchase that Keep Money In/Recirculating Through Sitka Support or Service

14 5 Surprises with Economic Implications

15 Number of Sitkans age 65+ projected to grow 50% in 10 yrs. Per capita income is 4 th highest in Alaska, yet 20-30% Sitkans at or below poverty level. Over 1/3 of Sitka s total community income does NOT come from work. Maritime is BIG - Blue Jobs are at least 1 in 3 private sector jobs and 40% of income. 35% of Sitka workers are not Sitka residents.

16 Sitka Population (ADOLWD) 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,835 8,990 9,043 8,881 8,929 8,920 8,851 8,718 8,600 8,538 8,400 8,324 8,200 8,000 Note: Projections issued in June 2014 before oil prices dropped! 8,081 7,800 7,

17 Sitka Components of Population Change, Births Deaths Average Annual Net Migration Population Change Growth Rate % % % % % % Note: Average annual numbers are rounded to whole numbers. Source: ADOLWD, Population Projections , June 2014

18 Youth + Seniors YEAR Under 2,189 2,046 1,799 age 19 25% 23% 21% Over age 65 1,248 14% 1,882 21% 2,000 23% Source: ADOLWD, Population Projections , June 2014

19 Community Income

20 Sitka Total Personal Income: $545 Million Sources Dividends, Interest, Rent 22% Retirement (SS, earnings, Medicaid/Medicare, PFD, etc. ) Unemployment (0.2%) 12% 64% work SSI, SNAP, etc.(1%) Source: US BEA Economic Profile

21 Income Distribution

22 How many are Wealthy and how many are Not? Half of adjusted gross income (AGI) in Sitka comes from 17% of all tax filers. These 790 wealthiest tax filers earn $100,000 or more. 6% of adjusted gross income (AGI) in Sitka comes from 32% of all tax filers. These 1,500 tax filers earned less than $25,000 Next 25% of tax filers (1,140) made between $25- $50,000. These tax filers generated 14% of all AGI. Source: IRS, 2014 Income tax returns filed in zip code 99835

23 Income Distribution in Sitka based on Personal Income Tax Returns Filed, 2014 Adjusted gross income % of total No. of returns % of all returns TOTAL $303,677, % 4, % < $25,000 $17,706,000 6% 1,500 32% $25,000 under $50,000 $41,428,000 14% 1,140 25% $50,000 under $75,000 $45,412,000 15% % $75,000 under $100,000 $42,288,000 14% % $100,000 under $200,000 $88,717,000 29% % $200,000 or more $68,126,000 22% 130 3% Source: IRS 2014 Tax Returns

24 Average Rent (March 2016) Survey Area Contract Adjusted Kodiak Island $1,288 $1,448 Valdez-Cordova $1,189 $1,365 Juneau Borough $1,185 $1,333 Anchorage $1,135 $1,259 Sitka $979 $1,230 Matanuska Susitna $1,076 $1,224 Fairbanks North Star $1,049 $1,199 Ketchikan Gateway $990 $1,122 Kenai Peninsula $888 $1,059 Wrangell-Petersburg $700 $888 Alaska (Survey) Totals $1,100 $1,238 Source: AHFC/ADOLWD Annual Rental Survey

25 Poverty Indicators 32% of all tax filers had AGI of $25,000 or less, most of these folks are single 26% Sitka students qualify for free or reduced lunch 7% of Households below poverty thresholds (± 2%) 31% Households get SNAP (±13%) 27% Alaska Native Households below poverty (±12%) Sources: IRS tax returns, ADEED free and reduced lunch reports, American Community Survey

26 (Wage +Salary) Employees

27 5,000 4,500 4,000 Employment (Ave Ann) by Type, ,409 4,355 4,433 4,447 4,535 4,566 Private: Service Providing 3,500 3,000 2,669 2,426 2,493 2,418 2,357 2,387 Private: Goods Producing 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Governments: Local (CBS, STA, SSD) Government: State Government: Federal Source; ADOLWD, QCEW

28 $100,000,000 Total Wages by Type, $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $ Government: Federal Government: State Governments: Local (CBS, STA, SSD) Private: Goods Producing Private: Service Providing Source; ADOLWD, QCEW

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30 Resident + Non-Resident In Sitka (2014): 65% locals 5% non-local Alaskans 30% non-residents For comparison, locals are: 65% in Sitka, 67% in Alaska, 64% in Ketchikan, 74% in Juneau, and 50% in Petersburg Employees Source: ADOLWD, Occupational Data

31 Non-Resident Workers in the Private Sector in Sitka, 2014 Industry Workers Wages Manufacturing 514 $7,447,051 Construction 155 $6,178,353 Accommodation and Food 243 $3,089,315 Transportation and Warehousing 184 $3,003,321 Health Care and Social Assistance 94 $2,964,930 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 60 $1,113,297 Retail Trade 91 $979,740 Ag, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 44 $777,321 Professional, Scientific, Technical Svs 31 $769,112 Other 31 $640,324 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 30 $513,557 Other Services 29 $329,341 Education 82 $276,015 Wholesale Trade 3 $25,866 Grand Total 1,591 $28,107,543 Source: ADOLWD, Occupational Data

32 Complete Picture - Workforce What is creating jobs and income in Sitka? How are those industries doing? Opportunities & Challenges

33 Complete Picture of Work (4600 Employees Small Biz Owners) No. WORKERS EARNINGS Ag, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting % $49,833,160 18% Local Government(s) % $36,990,758 14% Manufacturing % $34,663,919 13% Health, Social Asset, Educational Services % $33,641,531 12% 49% 57% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

34 Workforce Complete Picture 1. The Ocean (26% of all, 32% of private) 2. Health Care & (private) Education Services (12%) 3. Local Governments - CBS, STA, SCH, SSD (12%) 4. Tourism-Related (10%) (accommodations & food services (8%), arts, entertainment, recreation (2%) 5. Retail (9%) 6. Construction (5%) Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

35 Blue Jobs Maritime workforce - 1,530 (26% of all) Maritime earnings - $91 Million (33% of all) Commercial fishing Seafood processing Boat building & repair Marine transportation (whale watching, 6-pak charters, etc.) Boat distributors Fishing lodges Marine surveyors, educators, engineers, scientists Harbors, marinas USCG Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

36 Sitkans are Competitive Commercial Harvesters Sitka has 1.2% of Alaska s population But, in 2015 Sitkans commercial harvest was: 2.7% of all pounds that Alaskan s harvested 6.3% of all gross earnings from commercial fishing by Alaskans Sources: ADOLWD Population Estimates, Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission

37 Competitive Edge: People are Making Things in Sitka! The Location Quotient for Manufacturing in Sitka is very high! (4.17) & its NOT just Ocean-Related Things In Sitka: 12 larger manufacturing businesses with employees 20 small manufacturing businesses Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

38 Many Health Care Services + Choices SEARCH Sitka Community Hospital Out Patient Social Assistance Nursing / Residential Care Other As a health care center, this still brings new money to Sitka, as well as preventing local leakage for health services Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

39 STEAM + Educational Services + Assets + Arts/Cultural Sheldon Jackson Campus and Facilities Sitka Science Center Mt Edgecumbe UAS Whale fest Sitka Fine Arts Camp Sitka Summer Music festival Homeskillet Sitka Tlingit Community + Culture STA Environmental Research Lab Other

40 Tourism 9% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

41 Construction 5% workforce 30% of gross biz sales Sources: Sitka CAFR (FY2015), ADOLWD QCEW, Census Nonemployer Statistics

42 Commerce: Gross Sales by Sitka Businesses

43 Commerce Retail Trade and Construction sales drive commerce Gross business sales: $477 Million Up over 5 years But, down 2% last year (2015) Worrisome: manufacturing dropped 29% between 2011 and 2015 (but up last year) Source: FY 15 Sitka CAFR

44 Local Government(S) 12% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014

45 City Fiscal Reality Does the borough have revenue to support community services, facilities, and infrastructure? CBS is down $7 M compared to 5 years ago, due to combination of increased expenses and reduced revenue $2.5 M shortfall for next fiscal year

46 Moving Forward (economically) Build on Assets and Competitive Advantages

47 Assets & Advantages (see list in packet) Natural Economic/ Infrastructure Human/ Social/ Cultural