SOUTHEAST ALASKA by the Numbers 2018

Transcription

1 SOUTHEAST ALASKA by the Numbers 218 SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE Rain Coast Data Mid Session Summit February 12th, 219

2 219 Southeast Economic Theme

3 You!

4 224 Pre-registrants

5 224 Pre-registrants 149 Organizations

6 224 Pre-registrants 149 Organizations 26 Communities

7 o -$1.6 Billion February 13 Projected Budget Cut 219

8 About Southeast Alaska 34 Communities 1,+ Islands 5 Miles 18,5 shoreline 1% of AK Economy 1/4 Alaska Native

9 Southeast Alaska s Report Card 216 Increasing Jobs D OWN 1, JOBS-2% Increasing Earnings D OWN $29 MILLION -1% Increasing Population D OWN 5-1%

10 Southeast Alaska s Report Card 217 Increasing Jobs U P 38 JOBS.8% Increasing Earnings U P $17 MILLION.8% Decreasing Population D OWN 9 PEOPLE -1.2%

11 Southeast Alaska s Report Card ? Increasing Jobs U P 38 JOBS.8% Increasing Earnings U P $17 MILLION.8% Decreasing Population D OWN 9 PEOPLE -1.2%? -21-8

12 72,876 People -8 people 73,82 Demographics 71,664 71,141 7,54 7,219 71,399 71,712 71,546 72,25 72,214 71,853 74,313 74,133 73,599 74,432 74,32 73,753 72,876 72,

13 4th Year of Declines -1,6 people

14 Half+ Losses From Juneau -9 people -3% Kids 2s 3s & 4s

15 218 Change Petersburg +63 Ketchikan +61 Hoonah +4 Wrangell +37 Haines +22 Hydaburg +22

16 218 Change Sitka -96 Klawock -56 Juneau -55 Coffman Cove -3 Metlakatla -26 Yakutat -2

17 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, Oil revenues historically accounted for 9 percent of the state s unrestricted revenues How we got here Average Daily Volume Average Price per Barrel

18 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, Average Daily Volume

19 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, Average Price per Barrel

20 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, $119 $113 Where are we going? Average Price per Barrel Now = $11 $61 ANS WC 7 $72 45 $54 $44 $54 $

21 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, Oil revenues historically accounted for 9 percent of the state s unrestricted revenues Now its 3% State revenues -7% from FY13 to FY 18 State budget was -4% over this period $14 billion in savings spent

22 State Savings Used $14 Billion

23 State jobs outside of Southeast Alaska fell by 7.5%

24 5,6 5,38 5,16 State Government Job Losses loss of -85 5,57 5,5 5,29-15% 4,94 4,72 4,5 4,94 4,83 4,

25 $4 $26 $385 Capital Appropriations for Southeast in Millions $2 $215 $183 $17-96% $ $47 $9 $15 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

26 Southeast Alaska Employment Earnings $2.2 billion 45,64 Jobs Government 35% Other 7% Social, Info, Timber 4% Mining 4% Visitor Industry 11% Professional Services 6% Financial Activities 5% Seafood 1% Trade 7% Private Health Care 7% Construction 6%

27 Government 13,25 Jobs E STIMATE DOWN 1 JOBS 218 Federal 8% Local 12% Tribal 2% State 13% Government wages = 35% of all employment

28 State Jobs E STIMATE DOWN 8 JOBS 218 State 13% -15%

29 Municipal Jobs E STIMATE DOWN 2 JOBS 218 Local 12%

30 Federal Jobs E STIMATE FLAT IN 218 Federal 8% -28% Since 26

31 Government Job Losses Last 15 years loss of 1,5 State and Federal Jobs = a loss of $1 million in annual wages

32 Visitor Industry 7,74 Jobs U P 1,9 JOBS +32% SINCE 21 +$58 MILLION

33 Cruise Passengers 25% increase ,3,1 55% increase ,18,7 875, , 937, 999,6 967,5 994, 1,25,9 + 6% 1,89,7 1.9 million % 1,165, million % 1,361, million 219 est

34 Tourist Spending in Southeast $657 Million $487 per SE visitor AVSP VII 216

35 Glacier Bay was the highest-rated cruise destination in the world in 218. Cruise Critic

36 Tourists into Southeast by Mode Ferry/Road 3% Cruise 86% Air 11%.1% Dogsled

37 Airline Trends: 218 = top year ever 24% since 212

38 $27 $39 VALUE & POUNDS OF SEAFOOD LANDED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA TEN YEARS $36 $386 $337 $368 $28 Inflation Adjusted Value to Fishermen (millions) Landed Pounds (millions) $289 $246 $246 $238 $

39 Seafood Industry Other Salmon 38% Herring 12% 3,854 Jobs Blackcod 3% Pink Salmon 44% Halibut 2% Crab 2% Other 3%

40 Healthcare 3,426Jobs $2 $175 $173 $172 $175 $182 $189 $197 $

41 Healthcare JOBS SINCE % 3,426Jobs Estimated 9% of all SE earnings $2 $175 $173 $172 $175 $182 $189 $197 $

42 Construction Industry 1,9 Jobs Estimate D OWN 7 JOBS IN 218 Lowest since 1992

43 Mining Industry 886 Jobs UP 9 JOBS IN 217 JOBS +11% $1,225 $1,572 $1,669 $1,411 $1,266 $1,16 $1,239 $1,271 GOLD PRICES $1,269 $1,

44 Timber Industry 354 Jobs D OWN -3% 1983 to 217 Jobs Board Feet

45 SOUTHEAST ALASKA S BLUE ECONOMY 24% Southeast Maritime Earnings

46 Annual Business Confidence 218 How do you view the regional business climate right now? 44% Concerned Poor 38% Very Poor 6% Better 5% 15% Decrease 215 Much Better 5% Don't know 1% 55% Positive

47 Voices of 14 SE Business Leaders How has the economy impacted your business? Excerpts of survey responses by industry: Visitor Industry: Business is up about 15% so far this year with hopes of breaking through 17% by season s end. Local, business and government travel were all down this winter. However, summer business is strong. Seafood: I am a young fisherman. There is no feasible way that I can afford to diversify my fishing business by buying halibut quota. It is prohibitively expensive and I can't afford to buy into it (or other fisheries). Information Technology: Lack of fiscal certainty and general uncertainty in the market causes us to be more conservative, especially in hiring. Mining: We will be looking for skilled and non-skilled labor to grow our business. Our concern is that labor is moving out of the area due to lack of jobs, making it difficult for us to fill the positions required to grow our business. Retail Trade: Overall business is down close to 15%. The good news is the rate of decline has slowed and seems to be bottoming out. Construction: Our company is in year 4+ of a 2% decrease in hours per employee to maintain cash flow. Energy: Energy (kwh) sales are down for at least the fifth year in a row, even though we grew by about 5 customers over the same period. We believe this is due to investments in more efficient lighting and appliances. Financial Activities: We are continuing to grow in total asset size, income has increased, and we are looking at adding additional locations in the next few years. Food/Beverage Industry: We are down 23% in was down 12%. Much more and we will be out of business. The State budget crisis is affecting how people are spending money now. Professional & Business Services: I ve had to travel more for business and also had to cultivate clients out of region. Money is tighter here in SE. Real Estate: Our residential properties enjoy 1% occupancy. Lack of good land for development and the high price of buying and converting existing properties to moderate priced housing units are our biggest challenges. Arts: We have reduced staff, which means we have to reduce services which reduces revenue.

48 Annual Business Confidence What is the economic outlook for your business or industry over the next year? 66% Optimistic Much Better 2% Same (positive) 37% Better 27% Same (poor) 18% Worse 14% 34% Concerned Much Worse 2%

49 Annual Business Confidence What is the economic outlook for your business or industry compared to last year? By Industry By Community Same (poor) Worse Much Worse Seafood 66% Petersburg 8% Energy 6% Hoonah 6% Financial Activities 57% Wrangell 5% Construction 5% Sitka 41% Food/Beverage 44% Juneau 35% % % % 8% % % % 8%

50 Annual Business Confidence What is the economic outlook for your business or industry compared to last year? By Industry By Community Better Much Better Health Care 6% Skagway 71% Tourism 54% Haines 67% Real Estate 5% Prince of Wales 35% Arts 45% Sitka 34% % 3% 6% 9% % 3% 6% 9%

51 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS Plan is winner of the 218 NADO Innovation Award The region s current CEDS Southeast Alaska 22 is one of the best examples in the country

52 Tourism Health Care Mining State Fiscal Crisis Seafood Volatility 219 Southeast Economic Theme

53 SOUTHEAST ALASKA by the Numbers 218 SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE Rain Coast Data Thank You