Stan Heller Host - VectorVest Canada. Jamin Heller Moderator

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1 Stan Heller Host - VectorVest Canada Jamin Heller Moderator

2 Purpose for these monthly Forums: Further your knowledge of the VectorVest System. To share current ideas and strategies for making money and protecting wealth. To create opportunities to interact and share ideas with other members of our VectorVest community. To promote the meetings and activities of our VectorVest User Groups. To provide a forum for VectorVest Investors who do not live near a User Group Community.

3 11:00 Welcome and Purpose of Meeting (5 min.) 11:05 The 15-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.) Colour Guard Review VectorVest markets around the Globe Strategy and Market Climate Highlights Canada and US 11:15 User Group News (5 min) Meetings This Month - (Friday Views Tab/User Groups) How to Access Recordings of Past Online Forums (Category - Online Forums) 11:20 Special Presentation (40 min.) 30 Minute Trading System, presented by Tony Jackson, Atlanta, Georgia User Group. 12:00 Special Presentation (25 min.) Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques, presented by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada. ADJOURN 12:30 Eastern / 09:30 Pacific

4 DISCLAIMER Neither VectorVest nor any of its employees or subscribers are licensed to offer specific investment advice. You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk. This material is believed to be reliable, but neither VectorVest, Inc., nor any of its suppliers guarantee its accuracy or validity, nor are they responsible for any errors or omissions which may have occurred. The analysis, ratings, and/or recommendations made by VectorVest, and/or any of its suppliers do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. Everything you will see and hear today is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The information is designed to empower you to make your own investment decisions, and these decisions are yours, and yours alone to make.

5 11:05 The 15-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.) Colour Guard Review VectorVest markets around the Globe Strategy and Market Climate Highlights Canada and US

6 VVC/CA -4.34% YTD VVC/US -1.90% YTD VVC/AU -2.11% YTD VVC/UK -4.93% YTD Singapore VVC 1.47% YTD Europe VVC -0.84% YTD Hong Kong VVC 1.37% YTD

7 Performance of Global Markets Tracking ETFs 2018 YTD Performance

10 Instructors: Steve Chappell, Director of Trading Systems; Ray Clark, Director of Educational Services; Cathy O Nan, Senior Instructor; and Stan Heller, VectorVest Canada. Horizons ETFs representatives will be attending and lunch sponsors.

12 Wicked Wedge

13 11:20 User Group News (5 min.) Meetings This Month (Friday Views Tab/User Groups) How to Access Recordings of Past Online Forums (Category - Online Forums)

14 User Group Meeting Notices For more information including agendas, maps and driving directions, go to: 1. VectorVest Views 2. Any Friday 3. User Group Section For webcast recordings and to register for upcoming Forums and Webinars, please go to: Click on Live Events.

15 March February January December November October September August July June May April March February How to Access Articles and Recordings from Past Online Forums

16 11:20 Special Presentation (40 min.) 30 Minute Trading System, presented by Tony Jackson, Atlanta, Georgia User Group.

17 30 Minute Trading System Presented by Tony Jackson to the VectorVest International Online Forum on April 7, 2018

18 Disclaimer There is no guarantee that these theoretical results could be reproduced in real life trading. There is no guarantee that future trades will perform in a similar fashion to these theoretical trades. I am not a Licensed Professional Broker, but a trader like you. I offer this information for your use but do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.

19 30 Minute Trading System Would you be interested in? A simple trading system that uses a few ETFs Can be used in retirement accounts Requires less than 30 minutes a day to manage Has been back-tested over many years with over 80% winning trades Requires no timing system but avoids trading in deep bear markets

20 30 Minute Trading System How To Trade Like The Pros webinar Nov 2 & 9 RSI 25 Trading System Developed by Larry Conners Focuses on ETFs in long term up trends, but are experiencing short term corrections Uses 200 day SMA and 4 period RSI Trades only near the close of the day

21 RSI 25 Trading System Entry Rules: Buy Only When ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25 *Enter near the current day s close Profit Exit Criteria: EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55. *Exit near the current day s close

22 Focuses on ETFs in long term up trends, but are experiencing short term corrections

23 BUY when ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25 *Buy near the current day s close

24 EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55. *Exit near the current day s close

25 RSI 25 Chart Settings 200 Day Simple Moving Average Right Click on Price Add Moving Average / Simple

26 RSI 25 Chart Settings RSI Add Parameter Technical Analysis RSI

27 RSI 25 Chart Settings RSI(4) Pane - 25 / 55 Horizontal Lines Select Horizontal Line Click in RSI Pane Drag to 25 / 55 Right click on Lines to Adjust Color / Thickness / Style

28 BUY when ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25 EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55.

29 Use Graph Control Panel To Get Exact RSI(4) Value

30 RSI 25 Unisearch Unisearch can be used to search for Entry and Exit conditions ProTrader needed to search for RSI condition Realtime or Intraday data for search in last 30 minutes of day Entry Rules: Buy Only When ETF is Above 200-SMA, With 4 period RSI Below 25 Profit Exit Criteria: EXIT when 4 period RSI goes Above 55

31 RSI 25 Buy Search

32 RSI 25 Buy Search 11/07/2017

33 RSI 25 Sell Search

34 RSI 25 Sell Search 11/16/2017

35 RSI Operator

36 RSI(4) Below 25

37 RSI 25 System Using The ETFs For The 4 Major Indices *Claim made during VV webinar

38 RSI 25 System 4 Major Index ETFs SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500 DIA is the ETF for the Dow 30 QQQ is the ETF for the Nasdaq 100 IWM is the ETF for the Russell 2000

39 RSI 25 System Using The ETFs For The 4 Major Indices 71 Set Ups in 2017 include each time RSI(4) < 25 This means you could purchase the same ETFs multiple times before reaching the RSI(4) > 55 sell criteria. For example, IWM had setups on 11/07, 11/09, 11/10, 11/13, 11/14, and 11/15 before the RSI(4) > 55 exit on 11/16. Cannot automate back test in VV No Stop based on RSI

40 How to Back-Test the RSI 25 System AmiBroker *OmniTrader (what I used) TradeStation Fidelity Wealth-Lab Pro NOTE: The RSI calculation needs to use Wilders Smoothing

41 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Portfolio: $50,000 Watchlist: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM Allocation: 25% of portfolio, no margin Test Period: 11/01/2016 to 11/01/2017 Commissions: None Execution: Buy/Sell using Closing Price

42 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System 11/01/2016 to 11/01/2017

43 2017 RSI 25 System - Equity Analysis Starting_Equity $50, Ending_Equity $54, Equity_High $54, Equity_Low $49, Net_Profit $4, Avg_Ann_ROI% 8.32% Max_Drawdown $ Max_Drawdown% 0.74%

44 2017 RSI 25 System - Trade Analysis Number_Of_Trades 30 Profitable_Trades% 96.67% Largest_Win% 2.91% Largest_Loss% 2.67% Avg_Profit% 1.08% Avg_Invested% 8.74%

45 RSI 25 System Using The ETFs For The 4 Major Indices *Claim made during VV webinar

46 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Portfolio: $50,000 Watchlist: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM Allocation: 25% of portfolio, no margin Test Period: 01/01/2015 to 12/31/2015 Commissions: None Execution: Buy/Sell using Closing Price

47 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System 01/01/2015 to 12/31/2015

48 2015 RSI 25 System Equity Analysis Starting_Equity $50, Ending_Equity $55, Equity_High $55, Equity_Low $50, Net_Profit $5, Avg_Ann_ROI% 11.40% Max_Drawdown $1, Max_Drawdown% 2.10%

49 2015 RSI 25 System Trade Analysis Number_Of_Trades 31 Profitable_Trades% 90.32% Largest_Win% 2.93% Largest_Loss% 1.34% Avg_Profit% 1.41% Avg_Invested% 9.55%

50 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Starting 2007 Portfolio: $50,000 Watchlist: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM Allocation: 25% of portfolio, no margin Test Period: 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017 Commissions: None Execution: Buy/Sell using Closing Price

51 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017

52 RSI 25 System Equity Analysis Starting_Equity $50, Ending_Equity $92, Equity_High $92, Equity_Low $49, Net_Profit $42, Avg_Ann_ROI% 5.9% Max_Drawdown $9, Max_Drawdown% 14.27% Avg_Ann_MDD% 4.7%

53 RSI 25 System Trade Analysis Number_Of_Trades 274 Profitable_Trades% 83.94% Average_Trade_Length Longest_Trade 5 days 20 days Largest_Win% 6.42% Largest_Loss% 10.55% Avg_Profit% 0.92% Avg_Invested% 10.39%

54 RSI 25 System 3x Leverage ETFs What about using 3x Leverage ETFs? SPXL is the 3x leverage ETF for SPY (S&P 500) UDOW is the 3x leverage ETF DIA (Dow 30) TQQQ is the 3x leverage ETF for QQQ (Nasdaq 100) TNA is the 3x leverage ETF for IWM (Russell 2000) SPXL and TNA began trading on 11/12/2008 UDOW and TQQQ began trading on 3/31/2010 First RSI 25 signal on 9/1/2009

55 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System Using 3x ETFs Portfolio: $50,000 Watchlist: SPXL, UDOW, TQQQ, TNA Allocation: 25% of portfolio, no margin Test Period: 09/01/2009 to 12/31/2017 Commissions: None Execution: Buy/Sell using Closing Price

56 Back-Test of the RSI 25 System 09/01/2009 to 12/31/2017

57 RSI 25 System Equity Analysis Starting_Equity $50, Ending_Equity $225, Equity_High $225, Equity_Low $50, Net_Profit $175, Avg_Ann_ROI% 18.5% Max_Drawdown $17, Max_Drawdown% 22.57% Avg_Ann_MDD% 8.8%

58 RSI 25 System Trade Analysis Number_Of_Trades 209 Profitable_Trades% 88.04% Average_Trade_Length 5 days Longest_Trade 17 days Largest_Win% 18.78% Largest_Loss% 25.70% Avg_Win% 4.19% Avg_Loss% 5.95% Avg_Profit_Per_Trade% 2.98% Avg_Invested% 10.54%

59 What If I Don t Have Real-time or Intra-day Data? Check the charting tools available from your broker Broker Schwab Fidelity TD Ameritrade Platform StreetSmart Central ActiveTraderPro ThinkOrSwim Compare RSI(4) value against VectorVest RSI(4) SPY on 11/15/2017 had an RSI(4) value of

60 Schwab StreetSmart Central Chart

61 Fidelity ActiveTraderPro Chart

62 TD Ameritrade ThinkOrSwim Chart

63 Questions?

64 12:00 Special Presentation (25min.) Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques, presented by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada

65 Random Tips and Ideas for Making Money With VectorVest Stan Heller, Presenter TODAY S TOPIC: Trading The ADX, Tips and Techniques. April 7, 2018

What Is The ADX ADX: Average Directional Index; developed in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder The ADX by itself is a nondirectional, Price Trend Strength Indicator.

66 What Is The ADX ADX: Average Directional Index; developed in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder The ADX by itself is a nondirectional, Price Trend Strength Indicator. We use ADX to show if market is trending or nontrending, and identify how strong is the trend. The ADX is constructed from two directional indicators called DI s, or Directional Movement Index. The trend is deemed to be bullish when the +DI (green line) is above the DI (red line).

67 What Is The ADX The ADX together with +DI and DI can form an effective trading system Use the +DI/-DI as your price direction indicator +DI/-DI crossovers can deliver Buy/Sell signals on their own, but generally best used in conjunction with ADX Use ADX to show if market is trending or non-trending, and the strength of the trend General Guidelines: If ADX rises above after being lower, expect the market to trend If ADX crosses above 20 from below, the market is trending If ADX crosses below 20, the market is consolidating or non-trending If ADX crosses below after being higher, it suggests the trend is getting exhausted and is likely to consolidate or reverse

68 Popular ADX Settings Standard Settings or Periods: ADX - 14, ADXR - 14, +DI/-DI 14 (14,14,14)

69 ADX Works In All Timeframes

70 ADX Works In All Timeframes

71 ADX Works In All Timeframes

72 ADX Works In All Timeframes

73 ADX Works In All Countries

74 Use Your Own Favourite Searches

75 Combine With Your Favourite Set-ups

76 Create Your Own Search * Requires ProTrader premium add-on module.

77 Create Your Own Search * Requires ProTrader premium add-on module.

78 ADX and DMI Basic Trading Signals Basic Trades: Buy or go long when the +DI is above the DI. Other considerations: 1. ADX is rising off a bottom, generally below the +DI and DI, and between the 10 and 18 line. 2. The +DI is rising and crosses above the DI 3. For confirmation, ADX rising above line is sign of trend strength 4. -DI is losing momentum Sell or go short when: 1. DI is above +DI 2. +DI is losing momentum and/or ADX has crossed below the 40-line or higher, and especially if it crosses below the +DI line.

79 ADX and DMI Basic Trading Signals Use Caution when: 1. ADX is below the 20-line. The market is said to be ranging (sideways or choppy). It will be more difficult to make money. Often best to wait until the ADX is clearly rising off that bottom (10-line to 15-line) and either approaching the 20-line or wait until it crosses the 20-line for confirmation. 2. The ADX has peaked, reversed, and is now falling. This frequently happens when ADX is above the 40-Line or when it crosses through the upper DI. The trend is losing strength. 3. When ADX is above both +DI and DI. A reversal back to the mean may be imminent.

80 VectorVest END OF PRESENTATION If you have a question or comment about the foregoing, or you would like to request a short video on a topic of interest, please send me a brief at: stan.heller@vectorvest.ca Thank-you for attending.

81 ADJOURN 12:30 Eastern / 09:30 Pacific Let s share your questions, your trading methods and stock ideas at our next Forum! Please send me your comments and ideas at stan.heller@vectorvest.ca Thank you for joining us today!

Williams Percent Range

Williams Percent Range (Williams %R or %R) By Marcille Grapa www.surefiretradingchallenge.com RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT / DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT Trading any financial market involves risk. This report and