Nobina AB Group. Q4 and Full Year Result Presentation March 2009 February April 2010

Transcription

1 Nobina AB Group Q4 and Full Year Result Presentation 22 April 2010

2 This presentation includes forward-looking statements based on our current expectations, but subject to risks and uncertainties. Examples of risks and uncertainties include economic conditions, product demand, competition, government regulation, financial resources, and certain litigation. Our financial reports and latest annual report provide a more detailed view of financials as well as risks and uncertainties. Please note that all numbers in this presentation are based on IFRS accounting standards. 2

3 Overview of presentation Highlights Market development Operations Tender update Financial information Conclusions 3

4 HIGHLIGHTS Business highlights 98% full year renewal ratio of our contract portfolio New legislation in Finland and new law proposal in Sweden on further deregulation Interregional full year passenger increase 13% and revenue increase 19% New organizational structure to improve efficiency 4

5 HIGHLIGHTS Financial highlights EBIT full year MSEK 257, +25% above LY, before extraordinary winter costs of MSEK 37 and one-off costs of MSEK 28 Successful refinancing in July; redemption of preference shares, issue of new common shares, exchange offer of senior notes maturing August 1, 2012 Optional 10% redemption of senior notes to MEUR 109 During the year, a record number 380 new buses were purchased and 332 buses were sold average fleet age now at 6,3 years 5

6 HIGHLIGHTS Nobina new organisation in place Two divisions as of March 1, 2010 Regional (contract business) includes Nobina Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark. Jan Bosaeus, head of regional as well as remaining as MD of Nobina Sweden Interregional (express business) Head of Interregional continues to be Joakim Palmkvist 6

7 MARKET DEVELOPMENT Market development Regional Swedish government has presented a law change proposal on further deregulation of public transport by 1 Jan 2012 Finnish parliament decided in Dec 2009 on full liberalization of long distance bus transport and tendering of major cities by 2015 Agreement made in Sweden on updated index and contract recommendations between PTA*) and operators organizations After a short strike, a new 2 year labor agreement was made in Finland. In Norway negotiations are ongoing. In Malmö, Sweden, Arriva has cancelled its city contract due to poor profitability. The contract will be tendered during spring *) PTA = Public Transportation Authority 7

8 MARKET DEVELOPMENT Market development Interregional Our Interregional company Swebus has signed a new agreement with Reitan, opening up >500 new ticket sales shops Through Samtrafiken agreement in Sweden, our express tickets are now available via rail internet 8

9 OPERATIONS Operations Very hard and unexpected winter conditions Negative effects; extraordinary costs for cancelled trips, damages, fuel consumption and maintenance of at least MSEK 37 Positive effects; Nobina proved to deliver quality service even during these circumstances. Bus services have again proven more reliable than train. Motivated employees and increased service levels Employee Motivation surveys show positively increasing rates with EMI scores > 90% Our Head of HR became HR-director of the Year in Sweden Swebus has substantially increased its availability which has attracted partners to our sales channels and increased revenue from ticket sales 9

10 OPERATIONS Operations A reorganisation led to implementation of two business divisions, Regional and Interregional, and a HQ staff reduction of 30 employees Nobina Sweden is far ahead on zero default bus inspections, >80%, compared to business average 50% 10

11 TENDER UPDATE Tender update During FY 09/10 we signed new contracts of 451 buses while we ended contracts for 460 buses Out of our 149 existing contracts, 33 contracts started during the last two years, representing 15% of total contract revenue FY09/10 For FY 10/11 we anticipate ~ 3,000 buses to be out for tender in the Nordic market, including our own exposure of 673 buses 11

12 Historical tender overview Nobina wins Competitor buses up for tender Nobina buses up for tender TENDER UPDATE Number of buses Total 1 786* Other Nobina 496 Renewal ratio: FY 2006 Nobina wins 154% FY % FY 07/08 94% FY 08/09 FY09/10 140% 98% FY10/11 * Excluding Denmark 12

13 TENDER UPDATE Tender update Q4 Nobina Sweden Prolonged 4 contracts of 171 buses Won 2 school contracts of 4 buses Nobina Finland No wins in YTV tender, net loss of 7 buses Nobina Norway No own exposure but no wins in tenders YTD Nobina Denmark No wins during Q4 13

14 TENDER UPDATE Tender results 12 months YTD tender results (buses) Other Nobina Submitted Pending Announced Won Definitions: Submitted Nobina s submitted tenders Pending Submitted less announced Announced Submitted tenders, out of which results are announced Won Nobina wins out of the announced tenders 14

15 TENDER UPDATE Tender ratios 12 months YTD tender results (buses) Tender ratios YTD Target Renewal 98% 100% Success 29% 30% Retention 64% 30% Ratio Calculation: Renewal Ratio: = All Won/All own announced Success = All won/all announced Retention = Defended/Own announced 15

16 TENDER UPDATE Won tenders 12 months Country PTA Type Contract length years Traffic starts Buses Total contract value MSEK * Sweden Värmlandstrafik School August Sweden Södermanland Country / City August Sweden Hallandstrafiken Country June Sweden LT Södermanland Country / City August Sweden Vara kommun School August Sweden Helsingborg stad School July Sweden Västernorrland Country 3 June Sweden VLT Västerbotten Country 1 January Sweden Karlstad Kommun City 2 July Sweden VT Tvåstad Country/City 1 March Denmark Midttrafik Country June Denmark MOVIA Country / City March Denmark Midttrafik City February Finland YTV City 1 August * Option prolongation not included

17 TENDER UPDATE Contract information 149 PTA contracts by end of Q4 PTA contract revenue represented 91% of YTD revenue Our longest contract expires in 2019, excluding options 673 buses in 18 contracts will be up for tender FY 10/ contracts up for tender, of which 18 currently run by Nobina buses up for tender, of which 673 currently run by Nobina 17

18 TENDER UPDATE Order book existing contracts Revenue before indexation 120% 100% % of FY09/10 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% FY09/10 FY10/11 FY11/12 FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17 FY17/18 FY18/19 FY19/20 Current contracts Extension option

19 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Financial summary Revenue growth of +2,8% YTD Revenue growth primarily in Denmark and Norway Regional business Timing effects in Nobina Sweden contract migration from expired old contracts to new start-ups +19% revenue growth in Interregional from increased number of passengers Q4 EBIT in Regional was -10 (+20), affected by extreme winter conditions resulting in extra costs of MSEK 37 covering damages, maintenance, fuel consumption and cancelled trips. YTD EBIT in Regional decreased to MSEK +203 (+233) whereof Norway increased its EBIT by MSEK +14 Interregional increased its YTD EBIT by MSEK 18 to MSEK +42 (+24) as a result of growth in number of passengers and efficient traffic management Total EBIT decreased to MSEK +192 (+206) including one-off costs of 28 MSEK covering rebranding, re-organization and redemption of share option programme PBT has improved by MSEK 354 to MSEK +121 YTD (-233) by recovery of last year s unrealized FX loss Cash flow reduced by MSEK 8 YTD resulting in MSEK +331 available cash after of optional redemption of senior notes by MEUR 12,2, additional restricted cash is + MSEK

20 Nobina AB Group FINANCIAL INFORMATION Q4 YTD SEK m FY 09/10 FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY 08/09 Net revenues EBITDAR % of revenues 8,4% 11,7% 12,7% 13,8% EBITDA % of revenues 4,6% 7,3% 8,5% 8,2% EBIT % of revenues -0,8% 1,8% 3,0% 3,4% Interest income Interest expenses FX net *) Earnings before tax Tax Earnings after tax *) of which fx profit on bond

21 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Full year EBIT and Revenue bridges MSEK Revenue EBIT FY 08/ Price & Volume Contract changes Indexation Operational efficiency +21 Extra cost due to extreme winter -37 Fleet financing and utilization +77 Other FY 09/10 before one-off costs 220 One-off costs -28 FY 09/

22 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Revenue per business segment 22

23 FINANCIAL INFORMATION EBIT per business segment 23

24 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Revenue and EBIT by segment Revenue, MSEK EBIT, MSEK 66% 3% 12% 13% 6% 24

25 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Historical revenue trend Rolling 4 quarters Q Q Q2 MSEK 2006 Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 07/08 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2 08/09 Q3 08/09 Q4 09/10 Q1 09/10 Q2 09/10 Q3 09/10 Q4 25

26 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Historical earnings trend Rolling 4 quarters 1100 *) 550 MSEK Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 07/08 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2 08/09 Q3 08/09 Q4 09/10 Q1 09/10 Q2 09/10 Q3 09/10 Q4 *) excluding one-offs EBITDA EBIT PBT 26

27 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Cash flow 27

28 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Nobina Europe AB Group 28

29 FINANCIAL INFORMATION Financial guidance Nobina Group One-year Medium term Revenue growth 4-5 % 4-6 % EBITDAR margin % % EBIT margin 4-5 % % Replacement bus capex 1/14th of the fleet p.a. 29

30 CONCLUSIONS Conclusions Nobina improves operational EBIT despite financial crisis effects on index development Regional segments maintain their combined market share including increased return criteria Interregional segment strengthens its position and profitability New organizational structure focusing on core operations to further improve efficiency 30

31 Thank you!