FY 08/09 Q2 and first half Year ending 28 Feb 2009 Concordia Bus AB Group. 25 September 2008

Transcription

1 FY 08/09 Q2 and first half Year ending 28 Feb 2009 Concordia Bus AB Group 25 September 2008

2 This presentation include forward-looking statements, based on our current expectations, subject to risks and uncertainties. Examples of risks and uncertainties are economic conditions, product demand, competition, government regulation, financial resources, certain litigation. Our financial reports and latest annual report gives a more detailed view of financials as well as risks and uncertainties. Please note that from this report and onwards all numbers are based on IFRS accounting standard. 2

3 Highlights EBIT for Q2 improved over last year, despite record high oil price, Swedish bus driver strike and longer summer timetable Our bus fleet at record low 6,1 year average age, and only 30 buses for sale vs 250 buses 2 years ago Bank discussions initiated on replacing our 130 MEUR HYB 3

4 Public bus transport Market development Gothenburg has decided to investigate a sale of its bus operation (~400 buses). Oslo still investigating potential sale of its bus co. Helsinki community owned bus company Helb, announces huge losses, offers contract for subcontracting to Concordia Bus Finland government proceeds towards a proposal on full liberalisation of long distance bus transport Swedish government appointment of a person to propose changes in Swedish public transport legislation, is followed by a CPTA initiative to improve business model and contract structure in public transport Express Official study claims that 3,6 million express bus trips was made 2007 in Sweden, of which we do 2,2 million (60% share) A Norwegian express bus company closed down less than a year after start 4

5 Activities After the strike, a new 3 year wage agreement signed in Sweden Negotiations has started to improve our capital structure including replacement of our high yield bond and preference shares Tender win in Örebro town (100 buses) awaiting court decision, pending announcement in Södermanland (75 buses), Gästrikland (40), Romerike (200), Västtrafik (100) and Örebro county (45) Our Fleet company reached a record level of 99% rent ratio and had only 29 buses for sale end of Q2, vs 250 buses 2 years ago. Average age of our bus fleet is record low 6,1 year. Our past diesel hedge from February to August, which reduced negative effect substantially, has been replaced by a new 6 month cap on oil price for 20% of our total volume. Bus financing with independent lease companies continues to increase, new deal signed with Jyske leasing for all Danish buses. Agreement with SL and Scania on long term test of Hybrid Ethanol buses in south Stockholm, starting this autumn 5

6 Tender update Q2 Low activity in the market during summer months Several tenders will be concluded during Q3 and Q4 Swebus has been announced as winner of 92 buses in Örebro, reported as pending. The existing operator, Busslink, has appealed the result. 6

7 Tender results and ratios 449 Q2 tender results Other Concordia 660 YTD tender results Other Concordia Submitted Announced Won Pending Tender ratios Q2 Target Renewal 100% 100% Success 8% 30% Win/Loss N.a% 100% Retention 100% 30% Submitted Announced Won Pending Tender ratios YTD Target Renewal 67% 100% Success 24% 30% Win/Loss 44% 100% Retention 40% 30% 50 Ratio Calculation: Renewal Ratio: = All Won/All own announced, Success = All won/all announced, Win/Loss = Won from competition/lost to competition, Retention = Defended/Own announced 7

8 Won tenders YTD Country CPTA Type Contract length years Traffic starts Buses Total contract value MSEK * Sweden Värmlandstrafik School August Sweden X-trafik School 3 August Finland Helsinki City January Finland YTV City 1 August * Option prolongation not included

9 Contract information 150 CPTA contracts by end of Q2 - CPTA contract revenue represented 92% of YTD revenue - Our longest contract expires 2015, excluding options - 14 contracts, will be up for tender YTG Only 3 contracts, representing 2,5% of annual revenue, will be loss making until end of contract period (2009) 9

10 Financial summary Q2 Revenue growth by 10% in Q2 compared to last year, steady development in CPTA business (+13%), Express revenue is flat due to reduced number of travellers but with improved ticket yield Despite several challenges (Oil price, strike, long summer time table, driver shortage Norway, start up Denmark), EBIT improvements continues by +4 MSEK in Q2 and +52 MSEK YTD PBT was negative (-30 MSEK) due to seasonality but also including an unrealized FX loss of 11 MSEK and interest increases of 3,5 MSEK Cash flow was negative in Q2 by 160 MSEK, due to seasonality, payment of dividend (-78 MSEK), HYB interest payment (-55 MSEK), delayed CPTA payment (-60 MSEK) and increased restricted cash (-44 MSEK) YTD Cash position of 378 MSEK (excl. restricted cash) represent an improvement of 92 MSEK YTD compared to last year 10

11 Concordia Bus AB Group Q2 SEK m FY08/09 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY07/08 Net revenues Opex EBITDA EBIT Finance net Profit before tax YTD Split of Finance net Q2 YTD FY08/09 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY07/08 Interest net FX net Total

12 YTD EBIT Bridge FY 08/09 vs. FY 07/08 MSEK FY 07/08 Six months EBIT 33 Operational efficiency 19 Price & Volume Contract changes 16 Net of indexation -8 Fleet financing and utilization 26 Strike -5 Other 3 FY 08/09 Six months EBIT

13 Revenue per business unit Q2 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY07/08 % FY 08/09 FY07/08 % Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Total CPTA Express Total other traffic Parent and eliminations Total revenue

14 EBIT per business unit Q2 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY 07/08 Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Total CPTA Express HQ and other EBIT Financial net PBT

15 MSEK Historical revenue development Rolling 4 quarters Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 07/08 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2

16 MSEK Historical result development Rolling 4 quarters Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 EBITDA EBIT PBT 2005 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 07/08 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2

17 Cash flow year-to-date Q2 YTD MSEK FY08/09 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY07/08 Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments activities Cash flow from financing activities Cash flow for the period Available cash * Restricted cash not included (118 MSEK) 17

18 Balance sheet MSEK YTD YTD Full year FY08/09 FY07/08 FY07/08 Goodwill Vehicles 1,845 1,639 1, Other financial fixed assets Financial fixed assets 2,561 2,354 2, Currents assets Blocked cash Cash and cash equivalent Total current assets 1,282 1,001 1, Total assets 3,843 3,355 3, Equity Bond loans 1,218 1,198 1, Other liabilities 1, , Other provision and pension Total long-term liabilities 2,569 2,221 2, Total current liabilities 1, , Total shareholder s equity and liabilities 3,843 3,355 3, Net investment excl Financial Leases Net investment incl Financial Leases Equity / asset ratio 2,8 % 4,9 % 5,7 % Result per share after dilution -7,4-5,5-5,2 18

19 Concordia Bus Nordic Holding AB Group Q2 SEK m FY08/09 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY07/08 Net revenues Operating costs EBIT Finance net Profit before tax YTD Split of Finance net Q2 YTD FY08/09 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY07/08 Interest net FX net Total

20 Summary Concordia Bus group continues to increase EBIT margin even during turbulent times Long term outlook supports 5-10% annual growth, an EBITDAR margin above 16%, an operating profit of 3-5% and cash flow covering reinvestment needs Actions on improving the capital structure started, including replacement of 130 MEUR HYB Tender volume and consolidation opportunities for FY 08/09 should lead to increased market share for Concordia Bus group 20