INTERIM REPORT JANUARY SEPTEMBER 2017 JOHAN DENNELIND, PRESIDENT & CEO
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1 INTERIM REPORT JANUARY SEPTEMBER 2017 Q3 JOHAN DENNELIND, PRESIDENT & CEO
2 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR Q3 NORWAY KEEPS DELIVERING SWEDEN REDUCING COSTS SWEDEN FIBER DELAYS m -6% 8,000 STRONG YTD OPCF REALLOCATING CAPITAL GLOBAL SETTLEMENT UZBEKISTAN 8.9bn 8.5bn + 1.5bn 3.2bn + 0.7bn NO OTHER KNOWN INVESTIGATIONS ONGOING 2
3 SLOW FIBER WITH NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE RESULTS SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, external service revenues EBITDA DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, excluding adjustment items Service revenues Service revenues excl. fiber installation revenues -0.1% -0.4% -0.9% Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Service revenue growth in 6 of 7 markets Fiber installation revenues in Sweden down by SEK 124 million in Q3 Soft development in the Nordics partly compensated by strong Baltics Impact from less fiber installation revenues partly offset by strong cost control in Sweden 3
4 THE MOST HAPPY CUSTOMERS AND BEST NETWORK MOST SATISFIED B2C (HALEBOP) & B2B (TELIA) CUSTOMERS 2017* AWARDED BEST NETWORK FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR** 4 * According to SKI (svenskt kvalitetsindex, English: Swedish quality index) in September 2017, ** According to P3 in September 2017
5 LOWER OPEX MITIGATES FOR SLOW-DOWN IN FIBER SWEDEN OPEX DEVELOPMENT Reported currency, SEK billion & external OPEX OPEX absolute OPEX growth SWEDEN EBITDA DEVELOPMENT Reported currency, EBITDA excl. adjustment items EBITDA growth incl. fiber installation revenues EBITDA growth excl. fiber installation revenues % -6% 8% 10% -2% -3% 0% -2% 1 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 On track to reduce H2 OPEX by 5 percent y-o-y* Marketing and consultants main drivers behind Q3 reduction Further impact from redundancies in Q4 Installation revenues have gone from contributing by ~2 p.p. on growth to neutral to being a ~2 p.p. drag Excluding fiber installation revenues the Q3 EBITDA growth was fairly flat 5 * Adjusted external OPEX, excluding pension one-off item reported in Q4 2016
6 SLOWER FIBER PACE LEADS TO IMPROVED CASH FLOW PERMIT DELAY EXAMPLE Connecting a network to the backbone PERMIT DELAY SPLIT Q3 Traffic authority permits Other permits Secondary faults FINANCIAL IMPACT Reported currency, SEK billion Fiber installation revenues 0 Q3 16 Q3 17 Cash flow impact* 0 Permit needed -500 A single permit could stall an entire project 6 Without delays fiber installation revenues Q3 and YTD would have been rather flat Q3 16 Q3 17 Lower SDU volumes pressure revenues and EBITDA but support cash flow via lower CAPEX * Impact on cash flow from fiber installation revenues less fiber related CAPEX
7 STABLE NORWAY & PHONERO MIGRATION ON TRACK SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA** SEK million, reported currency & organic growth +1.7% 100% PHONERO CUSTOMER MIGRATION 1,949 2,212 Phonero -0.4% % 50% 25% Share of Phonero customers migrated Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17 Service revenues EBITDA Stable financial development 0% End Q End Q End Q End Q Bulk of customers to be moved in Q4 Phonero performance is so far according to expectations Full run-rate synergy target of SEK 400 million by yearend 2017 remains 7 = Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
8 INNOVATION - OUR DNA FIRST OUT ON 5G USE CASES IN EUROPE CONTINUING TO BE NETWORK PIONEERS 4G FIRST OPERATOR IN THE WORLD TO LAUNCH 4G COMMERCIALLY IN G 5G live test at Digital EU summit Tallinn Sep AMBITION OF BRINGING 5G SERVICES LIVE TO TALLINN, HELSINKI & STOCKHOLM IN 2018 NO VISIBLE IMPACT ON CAPEX UNTIL BEYOND Copyright: Intel
9 DIVISION X 1 YEAR ON CORPORATE POWER TELIA SENSE & TELIA ZONE STARTUP ATTITUDE CROWD ANALYTICS 9 ACQUIRED Q1 - STRENGTHENING OUR POSITION IN VERTICALS OF TRANSPORTATION & IoT SENSE LAUNCHED AND ZONE IS NOW AVAILAIBLE FOR 0.7 MILLION SWEDISH HOUSEHOLDS VALUE TO CORE AND VALUE IN INVESTMENTS 6 KEY VENTURES IoT OFFERING GAINING TRACTION. YTD REVENUES OF SEK 0.5 BILLION EXCITING PILOT PROJECTS, AGGREGATING, ANONYMIZING, COMPILING & COMMERCIALIZING DATA
10 STEP BY STEP TOWARDS PURE NORDIC/BALTIC 38% 24% 25% 19% Pre divestments Post divestments Pre divestment Post divestment 10 Almost SEK 12 billion in proceeds from divestments made YTD 2017 in Turkcell and MegaFon SEK 2.3 billion in total dividends received YTD 2017 from associated companies 3 rd Turkcell dividend tranche of around SEK 0.5 billion to be received Q4 MegaFon reclassified from an associated company to a financial asset from Q4 Turkcell market capitalization of around USD 8.5 billion and MegaFon of around USD 6.4 billion
11 INTERIM REPORT JANUARY SEPTEMBER 2017 Q3 CHRISTIAN LUIGA, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT & CFO
12 STRONG CASH FLOW TREND SUPPORTS OUTLOOK OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW TREND Continuing operations, SEK billion Operational free cash flow (R12) FREE CASH FLOW - YTD Continuing operations, SEK billion Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q Operational free cash flow - by Q YTD Q3 16 EBITDA Tax Cash CAPEX Associate dividends Other YTD Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13 SWEDEN FIBER ROLL-OUT DRAG ON GROUP LEVEL SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, external service revenues -0.9% EBITDA DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, excluding adjustment items -0.4% Q3 SWE FIN NOR DEN LIT EST LAT Other 16 Legacy pressure and lower fiber installation revenues in Sweden Q3 17 Norway and Denmark benefiting from wholesale Solid development in the Baltics Q3 SWE FIN NOR DEN LIT EST LAT Other 16 Revenue drop in Sweden not fully mitigated by lower costs Negative sales mix and high SAC in Finland Good cost control in Lithuania and Estonia Q
14 FIBER ROLL-OUT DECLINE BUT CLEAR COST IMPROVEMENT SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA** SEK million, reported currency & organic growth -3.2% 7,976 7, % 3,613 3,531 Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17 Service revenues EBITDA Negative sales mix partly mitigated by better performance on costs Fiber installation revenues fell by SEK 124 million B2C B2B SERVICE REVENUES* BY SEGMENT Organic growth B2C incl. fiber installation revenues B2C excl. fiber installation revenues Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q % -2.4% -4.1% Fiber installation revenues down by 46 percent y-o-y Lapsing price effect on TV and fixed broadband Continued stable B2B, although growth still negative 14 = Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
15 TEMPORARY COST INCREASE RELATED TO HIGHER SAC SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA** SEK million, reported currency & organic growth MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION DEVELOPMENT Quarterly mobile gross & net adds excl. M2M +1.0% 2,784 2, Mobile gross adds Mobile net adds -1.5% 1,055 1,082 Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17 Service revenues EBITDA Growth in mobile partly offset by pressure on fixed broadband revenues Elevated SAC level Q3 pressures EBITDA In Increased gross adds late Q3 on the back of higher SAC Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q = Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
16 FLAT EBITDA DEVELOPMENT IN NORWAY SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA** SEK million, reported currency & organic growth ORGANIC EBITDA** DEVELOPMENT SEK million, organic EBITDA and margin +1.7% 1000 Organic EBITDA Organic EBITDA margin 50% 1,949 2,212 Phonero -0.4% % 30% 20% % Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17 Service revenues EBITDA 0 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 0% Organic revenue growth driven by wholesale Challenging cost base comparison in the quarter Limited synergies expected in 2017 Continued stable organic EBITDA trend 16 = Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
17 SOLID PERFORMANCE IN ESTONIA AND LITHUANIA SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, external service revenues Estonia Lithuania Denmark EBITDA* DEVELOPMENT SEK million, reported currency & organic growth +6.7% +6.8% +7.0% % +2.2% % Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17 Estonia Q3 16 Q3 17 Lithuania Q3 16 Q3 17 Denmark Mobile is growing in all countries Growth in Estonia driven by majority of revenue streams Denmark positive mainly due to wholesale Service revenue growth and cost control in Lithuania and Estonia support EBITDA Denmark EBITDA impacted by higher OPEX 17 = Organic growth * Excluding adjustment items
18 STRONG REVENUE & EBITDA TREND IN EURASIA FINANCIAL TRENDS IN EURASIA Organic growth Service revenues* EBITDA** 14% FINANCIAL TRENDS IN KAZAKHSTAN Organic growth Service revenues* EBITDA** 0% 3% -4% 18 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Revenue growth in all markets Double digit EBITDA growth in Eurasia Q3 if excluding the devaluation impact in Uzbekistan * External service revenues **Excluding adjustment items Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Financial improvement continues Price adjustments on legacy tariffs and ARPU stimulation impact revenue growth positively Revenue growth and cost initiatives support EBITDA
19 CAPEX TRENDING DOWN FROM 2016 PEAK CAPEX EXCLUDING LICENSES* Reported currency, SEK million & R12 FIBER CAPEX DEVELOPMENT Reported currency, SEK million 16,000 CAPEX (R12) CAPEX excl. fiber (R12) 1,500 Fiber CAPEX 15,000 SEK million 14,000 13,000 SEK million 1,000 12, ,000 10,000 0 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Decline in CAPEX driven by fiber CAPEX in Sweden as well as overall non-fiber related CAPEX Vast majority of fiber CAPEX relates to Sweden but also some in Estonia, Lithuania and Finland 19 * Excluding hockey rights in Finland
20 SLIGHT INCREASE IN NET DEBT AND LEVERAGE NET DEBT DEVELOPMENT Continuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion 1.36x x Net debt increase driven by payment relating to the Uzbek global settlement partly offset by the divestment of Turkcell 42.6 shares Reduced net debt from operations despite increased cash CAPEX M&A is related to the Nebula acquisition Q4 items -4.1 Second dividend payment of SEK 4.3 billion 3 rd Turkcell dividend tranche of SEK 0.5 billion Q2 17 Operations Turkcell divestment M&A Global settlement FX & Other Q3 17 Proceeds of SEK 3.2 billion from MegaFon divestment 20 = Leverage ratio
21 OUTLOOK FOR 2017 UNCHANGED OPERATIONAL FCF* Above SEK 7.5 billion Operational FCF together with dividends from associates of around SEK 2.8 billion*** to be above SEK 10 billion and should cover a dividend around the 2016 level EBITDA** Around the 2016 level 21 * Free cash flow from continuing operations, excluding licenses and dividends from associated companies ** Excluding adjustment items, in local currencies, excluding acquisitions and disposals *** Post tax and given current exchange rates
22 Q&A
23 SIGNIFICANT EPS IMPROVEMENT TOTAL EPS DEVELOPMENT SEK, continuing and discontinued operations Mainly Turkcell divestment The provision for Uzbek legal investigation made in Q Q3 16 Operating income* Adjustment items Income from associates Capital losses/gains Tax & other Uzbek global settlement Eurasia other Q3 17 CONTINUING OPERATIONS DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS 23 * Excluding income from associates and adjustment items
24 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company. 24
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