FOURTH QUARTER February 2010
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1 FOURTH QUARTER February 2010
2 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Fourth quarter 2009
3 HIGHLIGHTS Q4 Solid operational result Nordic Nordic mobile is returning to revenue growth Push in postpaid segment according to plan Russia Roll-out better than plan new customers Central Europe Focus on maintaining market share in the Baltic region and cash flow contribution Western Europe All countries delivering healthy EBITDA contribution Strong performance in The Netherlands and Austria Fourth quarter 2009
4 MARKET AREA NORDICS Mobile Positive revenue growth Solid customer intake in postpaid Secured No1 market share position in prepaid mobile internet in Sweden Market strategy Further develop and calibrate our increased focus on mobile postpaid Fourth quarter 2009
5 MARKET AREA RUSSIA Mobile Record high EBITDA margin in mature regions Record high net intake New regions adding customers Market strategy Making the roll-out an efficient machinery Continue unique distribution strategy Fourth quarter 2009
6 NET INTAKE RUSSIA (In thousands) New regions Old regions Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
7 CLEAR BUSINESS GOALS THROUGH EVOLUTION Perceived price leadership/ Subscriber base Newcomer Customer acquisition Challenger Customer acquisition ARPU development Retention Defender Retention ARPU protection 17 REGIONS 20 REGIONS 1,5 2 years 2,5 3 years >3 years Fourth quarter 2009
8 MARKET AREA WESTERN EUROPE Corporate segment Important contract wins Market strategy Investing for the future New mobile offering in the Netherlands Full portfolio of mobile services Combination package Internet Home & Away Fourth quarter 2009
9 MARKET AREA CENTRAL EUROPE Mobile Defend market share and expand when possible Mobile internet service launched in Lithuania Market strategy Economic turmoil creates opportunities for a price leader Fourth quarter 2009
10 TELE2 ALWAYS PROVIDES THE BEST DEAL Fourth quarter 2009
11 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Fourth quarter 2009
12 Q GROUP RESULTS SEK million Q4 09 Q4 08 Change % Continuing operations, Net Sales 9,889 9,986-1% EBITDA 2,188 2,162 1% - EBITDA margin (%) 22.1% 21.7% Depreciation and joint venture Depreciation of net sales (%) 9.0% 9.7% One-off items EBIT 1,236 1,179 Normalized EBIT 1,300 1,198 - Normalized EBIT margin (%) 13,1% 12,0% Financial items Taxes Net result, continuing operations Net result, discontinued operations Net result 1, Fourth quarter 2009
13 2009 FULL YEAR GROUP RESULTS SEK million Change % Continuing operations, Net Sales 39,265 38,272 3% EBITDA 9,185 8,169 12% - EBITDA margin (%) 23,4% 21,3% Depreciation and joint venture -3,647-3,679 - Depreciation of net sales (%) 9,3% 9,6% One-off items EBIT 5,527 2,848 Normalized EBIT 5,538 4,490 - Normalized EBIT margin (%) 14,1% 11,7% Financial items ,013 Taxes Net result, continuing operations 4,601 1,715 Net result, discontinued operations Net result 4,555 2, Fourth quarter 2009
14 TAXES Taxes in income statement (MSEK) One-Off Normal Reported Q Q Q Q , Taxes in cash flow statement (MSEK) One-Off Normal Reported Q Q Q Q In 2010: Tele2 forecast a corporate tax rate of approximately 20 percent excluding one-off items Fourth quarter 2009
15 OUR CURRENCIES Currency EUR / EUR pegged RUB USD YTD Average 09 vs ,6 % - 8,9 % 16,2 % Fixing rate Dec 09 vs Dec 08-5,3 % - 9,4 % - 7,0 % Fourth quarter 2009
16 NET ASSETS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES EUR EUR pegged RUB Other (SEK billion) ,1 1,0 6,2 7,2 5,9 6,2 12,1 9,6 Year-end 2008 Q Total 25.3 bsek Total 24.0 bsek Fourth quarter 2009
17 CASH FLOW FOR Q SEK million OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash flow from operations, other Taxes paid Changes in working capital CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Q4 09 2, ,701 Q4 08 1, INVESTING ACTIVITIES CAPEX Cash Flow after CAPEX Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net -1,048 1, ,997-1, Fourth quarter 2009
18 CASH FLOW FOR FULL YEAR 2009 SEK million OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash flow from operations, other Taxes paid Changes in working capital CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES , , ,896 INVESTING ACTIVITIES CAPEX Cash Flow after CAPEX Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net -4,340 4, ,781-4,608 3,288 1,597 4, Fourth quarter 2009
19 CASH FLOW DEVELOPMENT Cash flow after CAPEX Cash flow from operating activities (SEK million) Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
20 GROUP FINANCIAL PROFILE Net debt Net debt incl. JV Net debt/ EBITDA 2009 Net debt incl. JV/ EBITDA , (SEK million) , ,5 0 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
21 ROCE 19,0% 18,0% 17,0% 16,0% 15,0% 14,0% 13,0% 12,0% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Fourth quarter 2009
22 NET INTAKE PER SEGMENT Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
23 GROUP CUSTOMER STOCK Group Customer Stock Mobile Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony Group Mobile Customer Stock Prepaid voice Postpaid voice Mobile Internet Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Strong intake in the Mobile segment Driven by Russia adding new customers Fourth quarter 2009
24 GROUP Q NET SALES Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
25 GROUP Q EBITDA Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBITDA margin (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% Fourth quarter 2009
26 MOBILE Q EBITDA Mobile Mobile EBITDA margin (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Fourth quarter 2009
27 SWEDISH MOBILE MARGIN Temporary negatively affected by increased costs for hardware related to postpaid customers 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% Q Q Q Q Q Q Today, cost upfront If we had matched the cost for hardware with instalments from customers Fourth quarter 2009
28 MoU AND ARPU DEVELOPMENT Russia Sweden SEK SEK Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 08Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 09 ARPU MoU 180 ARPU MoU Relatively strong development despite challenging economical times Swedish ARPU being driven down by an increasing customer base in Mobile Internet and softness in corporate customer MoU Fourth quarter 2009
29 FIXED BROADBAND Q EBITDA Fixed broadband Fixed broadband EBITDA margin (SEK million) % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 0% Fourth quarter 2009
30 FIXED TELEPHONY Q EBITDA Fixed Telephony Fixed telephony EBITDA margin (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 25% 25% Fourth quarter 2009
31 GROUP Q EBIT Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBIT margin % (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Fourth quarter 2009
32 GROUP Q CAPEX Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Capex/sales (SEK million) % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 0% In 2010: Tele2 forecast a CAPEX level in the range of SEK 4,600 4,800 million Fourth quarter 2009
33 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Fourth quarter 2009
34 CONCLUDING REMARKS Top priorities 2010 Investment year Targeting a long term mobile EBITDA margin on own infrastructure at least 35 percent Best Deal Expected quality Perceived price leader Fourth quarter 2009
35 Q&A Fourth quarter 2009
36 Appendix A Fourth quarter 2009
37 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
38 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg. EBIT marg. (SEK million) % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 0% Fourth quarter 2009
39 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd) Postpaid voice Prepaid voice Mobile Internet (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
40 TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
41 TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg % (SEK million) % 8% 6% 4% 2% 450 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 0% Fourth quarter 2009
42 TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
43 TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg. (SEK million) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% 28% Fourth quarter 2009
44 TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
45 TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE (contd) Estonia net sales Lithuania net sales Latvia net sales EBITDA marg % 1000 (SEK million) % 30% Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % Fourth quarter 2009
46 TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake (In thousands) Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Fourth quarter 2009
47 TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg. (SEK million) % -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% 100 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q % Fourth quarter 2009
48 Appendix B Fourth quarter 2009
49 SWEDEN OUTLOOK Tele2 will continue to target higher market share in the postpaid segment, which in the longer term will lead to: Higher customer intake Improved ARPU Lower churn Resulting in Higher customer lifetime value In the short term, this strategy will lead to higher total acquisition costs Resulting in EBITDA margin towards 30 percent in Fourth quarter 2009
50 RUSSIA OUTLOOK Subscriber base should be able to reach18-19 million by YE 2011 Maintain ARPU growth at 5% by 2011 EBITDA Old regions EBITDA margin should evolve in the range of percent New regions EBITDA margin should break even 2 years from launch EBITDA contribution from new regions should be in the range of SEK -700 to -900 million Russia s total EBITDA margin should develop in the range of percent Capex Accumulated Capex in Russia should be in the range of SEK billion Selected acquisitions when available and under right conditions Fourth quarter 2009
51 NET DEBT AND DIVIDEND TARGETS Shareholder remuneration Tele2 s intention over the medium term is to pay a progressively increasing ordinary dividend Long-term financial leverage Tele2 s longer-term financial leverage, defined as the net debt /EBITDA ratio, should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates Short-term consideration The company needs to take the uncertainties in the financial markets into consideration and act accordingly Fourth quarter 2009
52 FINANCIAL ITEMS Q4 SEK million Q4 09 Q4 08 Change External Net interest expenses Exchange rate differences, external Other financial items Exchange rate differences, intragroup Financial items Fourth quarter 2009
53 FINANCIAL ITEMS 2009 SEK million Change External Net interest expenses Exchange rate differences, external Other financial items Exchange rate differences, intragroup Financial items , Fourth quarter 2009
54 Fourth quarter 2009 THE BEST DEAL
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