THIRD QUARTER October 2009
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- Sylvia Pierce
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1 THIRD QUARTER October 2009
2 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Third quarter 2009
3 HIGHLIGHTS Q3 Solid result with all regions performing Nordic Good customer intake Increased focus on postpaid customers Russia 7 new regions launched during the quarter Roll-out according to or better than plan new customers Central Europe Increased customer market share in the Baltic region Western Europe All countries delivering healthy EBITDA contribution Strong performance in The Netherlands and Austria Third quarter 2009
4 MARKET AREA NORDICS Mobile Good customer intake driven by all segments Corporate segment New contract wins in price sensitive market Market strategy Price leadership in combination with expected quality Third quarter 2009
5 MARKET AREA RUSSIA Mobile 40.5 percent EBITDA margin in old regions Record high net intake New regions adding 742,000 customers Market strategy Making the roll-out an efficient machinery Proven distribution strategy Third quarter 2009
6 RUSSIAN FOOTPRINT Third quarter 2009
7 NET INTAKE RUSSIA (In thousands) New regions Old regions Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
8 MARKET AREA WESTERN EUROPE Fixed Broadband Launch of VDSL Gold standard for the group in the corporate segment Market strategy Investing for the future Corporate market share 7 percent Marks the potential Third quarter 2009
9 MARKET AREA CENTRAL EUROPE Mobile Overall solid customer intake Defend market position and expand when possible Market strategy Economic turmoil creates opportunities for a price leader Third quarter 2009
10 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Our response to the economic downturn: EBITDA hurdle for a core business maintained at 20 percent Mobile on own infrastructure should target mid 30 percent ROCE target for the group 20 percent Third quarter 2009
11 TELE2 ALWAYS PROVIDES THE BEST DEAL Price leadership through best in class cost control Rewarded quality network Standardized product portfolio Third quarter 2009
12 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Third quarter 2009
13 Q GROUP RESULTS SEK million Q3 09 Q3 08 Change % Continuing operations, Net Sales 9,763 9,520 3% EBITDA 2,375 2,240 6% - EBITDA margin (%) 24.3% 23.5% Depreciation and joint venture Depreciation of net sales (%) 9.5% 8.9% One-off items EBIT 1, Normalized EBIT 1,451 1,388 - Normalized EBIT margin (%) 14,9% 14,6% Financial items Taxes Net result, continuing operations 2, Net result, discontinued operations Net result 1, Third quarter 2009
14 YTD 2009 GROUP RESULTS SEK million YTD 09 YTD 08 Change % Continuing operations, Net Sales 29,376 28,286 4% EBITDA 6,997 6,007 16% - EBITDA margin (%) 23,8% 21,2% Depreciation and joint venture -2,759-2,715 - Depreciation of net sales (%) 9,4% 9,6% One-off items 53-1,623 EBIT 4,291 1,669 Normalized EBIT 4,238 3,292 - Normalized EBIT margin (%) 14,4% 11,6% Financial items Taxes Net result, continuing operations 3,736 1,025 Net result, discontinued operations Net result 3,506 1, Third quarter 2009
15 TAXES Taxes in income statement (MSEK) One-Off Normal Reported Q Q Q Taxes in cash flow statement (MSEK) One-Off Normal Reported Q Q Q Third quarter 2009
16 OUR CURRENCIES Currency EUR / EUR pegged RUB USD YTD Average 09 vs % - 6 % 27 % Fixing rate Sep 09 vs Dec 08-6 % - 11 % - 10 % Third quarter 2009
17 NET ASSETS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES 30 1,1 1, ,2 5,9 12,1 7,0 6,1 10,4 Other RUB EUR pegged EUR 0 Year-end 2008 Q Total 25.3 bsek Total 24.5 bsek Third quarter 2009
18 CASH FLOW FOR Q SEK million OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash flow from operations, other Taxes paid Changes in working capital CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Q3 09 2, ,587 Q3 08 2, ,594 INVESTING ACTIVITIES CAPEX Cash Flow after CAPEX Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net 1,065 1, , ,664 2,125 3, Third quarter 2009
19 CASH FLOW FOR YTD 2009 SEK million OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash flow from operations, other Taxes paid Changes in working capital CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES YTD 09 6, ,417 YTD 08 6, ,959 INVESTING ACTIVITIES CAPEX Cash Flow after CAPEX Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net 3,292 3, ,784 3,375 2,584 1,491 4, Third quarter 2009
20 GROUP FINANCIAL PROFILE Net debt Net debt incl. JV Net debt/ EBITDA 2008 Net debt incl. JV/ EBITDA ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
21 ROCE 19,0% 18,0% 17,0% 16,0% 15,0% 14,0% 13,0% 12,0% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Third quarter 2009
22 NET INTAKE PER SEGMENT 1500 Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
23 GROUP CUSTOMER STOCK Group Customer Stock Mobile Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony Group Mobile Customer Stock Post paid voice Pre paid voice Mobile Internet Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Strong intake in the Mobile segment Driven by pre-paid voice adding new customers Third quarter 2009
24 GROUP Q NET SALES Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
25 GROUP Q EBITDA Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBITDA margin % 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q % Third quarter 2009
26 MOBILE Q EBITDA Mobile Mobile EBITDA margin Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Third quarter 2009
27 SWEDISH MOBILE MARGIN Temporary negatively affected by increased costs for hardware related to postpaid customers 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% Q Q Q Q Q Today, cost upfront If we had matched the cost for hardware with instalments from customers Third quarter 2009
28 MoU AND ARPU DEVELOPMENT Sweden Russia Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q2 09 Q Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q ARPU MoU ARPU MoU Relatively strong development despite challenging economical times Swedish ARPU being driven down by an increasing customer base in Mobile Internet Third quarter 2009
29 FIXED BROADBAND Q EBITDA Fixed broadband Fixed broadband EBITDA margin Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Third quarter 2009
30 FIXED TELEPHONY Q EBITDA Fixed Telephony Fixed telephony EBITDA margin Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q % 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% Third quarter 2009
31 GROUP Q EBIT Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBIT margin Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Third quarter 2009
32 GROUP Q CAPEX Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Capex/sales % % 500 5% 0 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 0% Third quarter 2009
33 AGENDA CEO review Financial review Concluding remarks Harri Koponen Lars Nilsson Harri Koponen Third quarter 2009
34 CONCLUDING REMARKS Top priorities Best Deal Roll-out of new regions in Russia All new regions launched by 1H 2010 Targeting a long term mobile EBITDA margin in the mid 30 s Mobile challenger Third quarter 2009
35 Q&A Third quarter 2009
36 Third quarter 2009 THE BEST DEAL
37 Appendix A Third quarter 2009
38 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
39 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg. EBIT marg ,00% 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q ,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Third quarter 2009
40 TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd) Post paid voice Pre paid voice Mobile Internet Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
41 TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
42 TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q ,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Third quarter 2009
43 TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
44 TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
45 TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
46 TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE (contd) Estonia net sales Lithuania net sales Latvia net sales EBITDA marg ,00% ,00% 32,00% ,00% 28,00% 0 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q ,00% Third quarter 2009
47 TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE Mobile subscriber Net intake Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q Third quarter 2009
48 TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% -20,00% -25,00% -30,00% -35,00% -40,00% -45,00% Third quarter 2009
49 Appendix B Third quarter 2009
50 SWEDEN OUTLOOK Tele2 will continue to target higher market share in the postpaid segment, which in the longer term will lead to: Higher customer intake Improved ARPU Lower churn Resulting in Higher customer lifetime value In the short term, this strategy will lead to higher total acquisition costs Resulting in EBITDA margin towards 30 percent in Third quarter 2009
51 RUSSIA OUTLOOK Subscriber base should be able to reach18-19 million by YE 2011 Maintain ARPU growth at 5% by 2011 EBITDA margin Old regions EBITDA margin should evolve in the range of percent New regions EBITDA margin should break even 2 years from launch Russia s total EBITDA margin should develop in the range of percent Capex Accumulated Capex in Russia should be in the range of SEK billion Selected acquisitions when available and under right conditions Third quarter 2009
52 NET DEBT AND DIVIDEND TARGETS Shareholder remuneration Tele2 s intention over the medium term is to pay a progressively increasing ordinary dividend Long-term financial leverage Tele2 s longer-term financial leverage, defined as the net debt /EBITDA ratio, should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates Short-term consideration The company needs to take the uncertainties in the financial markets into consideration and act accordingly Third quarter 2009
53 NET DEBT AND DIVIDEND TARGETS Cost control best in class System makeover we have started the journey Significant potential through cost savings and improved business intelligence Third quarter 2009
54 FINANCIAL ITEMS Q3 SEK million Q3 09 Q3 08 Change External Net interest expenses Exchange rate differences, external Other financial items Exchange rate differences, intragroup Financial items Third quarter 2009
55 FINANCIAL ITEMS YTD SEK million YTD 09 YTD 08 Change External Net interest expenses Exchange rate differences, external Other financial items Exchange rate differences, intragroup Financial items Third quarter 2009
56 Third quarter 2009 THE BEST DEAL
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