Concordia Bus AB Group

Transcription

1 Concordia Bus AB Group 23 April 2009 FY 08/09 Q4 and Full Year March Feb 2009

2 This presentation include forward-looking statements, based on our current expectations, subject to risks and uncertainties. Examples of risks and uncertainties are economic conditions, product demand, competition, government regulation, financial resources, certain litigation. Our financial reports and latest annual report gives a more detailed view of financials as well as risks and uncertainties. Please note that all numbers in this presentation are based on IFRS accounting standard. 2

3 Highlights Full Year EBIT +206 MSEK, up + 45 MSEK (28%) from LY, opposite to the direction of many competitors PBT negatively affected by weak Swedish currency Full year tender success ratio of 52% expands our Nordic contract portfolio by more than 200 buses Q4 results affected by shortfalls in Norway and start up in Denmark, improvement is expected in Q2 this year Refinancing plan presented on replacing our 130 MEUR HYB and our Preference shares 3

4 Market development Public bus transport Swedish government is investigating substantial changes in Swedish public transport legislation, including deregulated bus and train services. Planned decision before year end Finland government proceeds towards a proposal on full liberalisation of long distance bus transport and tendering big cities Recession will affect public budgets which may effect public transport volumes from autumn 2009 Competitors suffer; Nettbus, Tide Bus, Helb and Gothenburg have reported red numbers. Express Our Express bus company first to be certified Bra Miljöval Ryanair enters Swedish airport bus service Nettbus changes name in Sweden to Bus4you and GoByBus 4

5 Activities Concordia Bus have announced its refinancing of the 130 MEuro HYB and Preference Shares with it s major share- and bondholders. An EGM on 7th May will decide on proposed solution During FY 08/09 Concordia Bus Group participated in tenders and prolongation of contracts of 1446 buses, of which 713 were won and 87 still pending. Full year success ratio is 52% and leads to increased market share The economic downturn has, among other activities, led us to be more selective in tender participation and increasing our financial return criteria Norway has >80% annual index compensation, which led to lost cost compensation during New index improved the situation from Jan 2009, and an efficiency program has been launched Solid traffic service in Denmark and organization built for expansion. Investments in Denmark higher than expected, will improve throughout 2009 Diesel hedge in place for ~20% of total Swedish volume for May October. Regular updates with both supplier and independent financial lease companies to expand our bus lease opportunities Express have improved their business model by eliminating retail commissions and introducing flexible timetable on-line Concordia Bus CEO, Ragnar Norbäck, have informed the Board that he wants to leave his position by end of The Board have therefore started the process of recruiting a new CEO of Concordia Bus group 5

6 Concordia wins Competitor buses up for tender Concordia buses up for tender Tender Historical overview 2572* Number of buses Total 1540* Other 863 CB wins CB * * * * FY2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY09/10 Renewal ratio: 86% 134% 76% 97% 53% 154% 103% 94% 140% * Excluding Denmark

7 Tender update Q4 Swebus Has prolonged 4 contracts with Västtrafik of total 205 buses Has appealed the result in Skåne tender, still pending CBF Won 61 buses in YTV tender, net increase of 3 buses 7

8 Tender results and ratios Q4 tender results Othe r Concordia S ubmitte d Announce d Won Pe nding 87 Full Year tender results Othe r Concordia S ubmitte d Announce d Won Pe nding Tender ratios Q4 Target Tender ratios YTD Target Renewal Success Win/Loss Retention 102% 61% 150% 95% 100% 30% 100% 30% Renewal Success Win/Loss Retention Ratio Calculation: Renewal Ratio: = All Won/All own announced, Success = All won/all announced, Win/Loss = Won from competition/lost to competition, Retention = Defended/Own announced 140% 52% 426% 88% 100% 30% 100% 30% 8

9 Won tenders YTD Country CPTA Type Contract length years Traffic starts Buses Total contract value MSEK * Sweden Värmlandstrafik School August Sweden X-trafik School 3 August Sweden LT Örebro City & Country August Sweden LT Örebro Country August Sweden X-trafik Country 10 June Sweden Västtrafik Express June Sweden Västtrafik Country June Sweden Linköpings kommu School 6 July Sweden LT Västernorrland Airport 2, January Sweden Herrljunga kommunschool 1 August Norway Västtrafik City & Country April Finland Helsinki City January Finland YTV City 1 August Finland Helsinki City 5 January Finland YTV City 5 August Norway Hordaland Country July Norway Akershus Country July Norway Hedmark Country 2,5 January * Option prolongation not included

10 Contract information 150 CPTA contracts by end of Q4 - CPTA contract revenue represented 92% of YTD revenue - Our longest contract expires 2017, excluding options - 11 contracts, will be up for tender FY 09/10 10

11 Financial summary Q4 and Full Year Continued full year Revenue growth by +13% compared to last year, +14% in Q4 EBIT improvements by full year +45 MSEK to +241 MSEK, -28 reduction in Q4 due to significant one time gains in Q4 last year CPTA business generates steady growth (+15%), continued EBIT improvements vs last year: Swebus increased EBIT by 51% to +232 MSEK Finland doubled its EBIT to +24 MSEK Norway is struggling with indexation swings and some efficiency issues, 19 MSEK EBIT reduction, still profitable (+9 MSEK) Investment in start up of Denmark subsidiary, negative EBIT of 24 MSEK Express revenue flat is flat, less tickets sold but improved ticket yield. EBIT improved vs last year by 21%. Express business well positioned for growth PBT has been hit by unrealized exchange loss of 244 MSEK on the Euro Bond Operational Cash flow improved by 71 MSEK but payment of dividend (-89 MSEK) and increased cash deposits for Bank guarantees (-61 MSEK) made Cash flow in total negative by -59 MSEK year to date Year end Cash position of 417 MSEK (excl. restricted cash), a reduction of -38 MSEK YTD compared to last year 11

12 Concordia Bus AB Group Q4 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Net revenues % % Opex % % EBITDA % % EBIT % % Finance net % % Profit before tax % % Q4 YTD Split of Finance net FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Interest net % % FX net *) % % Total % % *) of which fx loss on bond

13 YTD EBIT Bridge FY 08/09 vs. FY 07/08 MSEK FY 07/08 Full year EBIT Operational efficiency Price & Volume Contract changes Net of indexation Fleet financing and utilization Strike Other FY 08/09 Full year EBIT

14 Revenue per business unit Q4 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Sweden % % Denmark % % Norway % % Finland % % Total CPTA % % Express % % Total other traffic % % Parent and eliminations % % Total revenue % % 14

15 EBIT per business unit Q4 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Sweden % % Denmark % % Norway % % Finland % % Total CPTA % % Express % % HQ and other % % EBIT % % Financial net % % PBT % % 15

16 08/09 Q3 08/09 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2 Historical revenue development Rolling 4 quarters Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 07/08 Q4 16 MSEK

17 08/09 Q4 07/08 Q4 08/09 Q1 08/09 Q2 08/09 Q3 Historical result development Rolling 4 quarters Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 07/08 Q1 07/08 Q2 07/08 Q3 EBITDA EBIT PBT 17 MSEK

18 Cash flow year-to-date Q4 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY 07/08 Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments activities Cash flow from financing activities Cash flow for the period Available cash *) *) Restricted cash not included (141 MSEK) 18

19 Balance sheet Financial fixed assets Current assets Blocked cash Cash and cash equivalent Total current assets Total assets Equity Bond loan Other liabilities Other provision and pension Total long-term liabilities Total current liabilities Total shareholder s equity and liabilities Net investment excl Financial leases Net investment incl Financial leases Equity/asset ratio Negative 5,7% Result per share after dilution -21,1-5,2 19

20 Concordia Bus Nordic Holding AB Group Q4 YTD SEK m FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Net revenues % % Operating costs % % EBIT % % Finance net % % Profit before tax % % Q4 YTD Split of Finance net FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % FY 08/09 FY 07/08 % Interest net % % FX net *) % % Total % % *) of which fx loss on bond

21 Refinancing preference shares and senior secured notes 21

22 Refinancing The company aims to maximize the groups financial flexibility by refinancing its outstanding 130 M Euro senior notes and 510 M SEK preference shares as follows: M SEK ordinary shares preemptive rights issue to all existing shareholders 130 M Euro offer of new senior notes to new investors and holders of existing senior notes to exchange On a pro forma basis the refinancing will increase the groups financial flexibility, an strengthen the growth and profitability prospects. Replacement of preference shares by ordinary shares is expected to improve credit ratings and will eliminate annual preference share dividend of 95 M SEK Following the refinancing, the company will continue to seek for working capital facilities i.e. revolving credits, factoring, guarantees without cash deposits etc. 22

23 Sources and uses (approximate numbers) MSEK Sources Uses New senior secured notes 1320 Replacement old senior notes 1430 Issue of new shares Cash Redemption preference share 600 Sum Sum Additional potential sources: Share issue could be 300 MSEK larger The company can release an additional 200 MSEK of existing available cash Additional working capital facilities of 250 MSEK is currently being sought 23

24 Time plan preemptive rights issue 23 April, Announcement 7 May, Extraordinary shareholders meeting 14 May, Record day for subscription rights 19 May, Start of subscription period 16 June, Close of subscription period 18 June, Allotment of subscribed new shares 19 June, Subscription by Guarantee group 22 June, Payment for all subscribed shares 24

25 Time plan issue of new senior notes 23 April, Announcement 15 May, Launch of offer and distribution of offer memorandum 15 June, Termination of offer 23 June, Settlement of offer 23 June, Closing of offer and counting 25

26 Terms preemptive rights issue Issue of to ordinary shares Issue price at 3 SEK per share Total share issue proceeds of minimum 600 and maximum 900 MSEK Conditional pre-support and guarantee of 600 MSEK offered from main shareholders; Bluebay, Fidelity, Thames River Capital Lock-up and pre-committment of during process 26

27 Terms for new senior secured notes Issue of 130 M Euro new Bond, nominal Minimum take up 87,5 % Issue discount of 7,5% Consent and Exchange offer fee 1% US investors to be invited under an excemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act 3 year maturity (August 2012) 10% mandatory amortization annually on 1 August + 10% optional annually on 1 February Possible to redeem once a year, 1-2 % redemption premium 9,125% interest coupon, to be paid semiannually 2,0% change of control fee Conditional pre-support and guarantee of 95 M Euro take up offered from; Bluebay, Fidelity, Thames River Capital 27

28 Summary Concordia Bus was the most successful operator in contract tenders during 2008, which leads to increased market share in all countries Improved profitability in Sweden, Finland and Express, improved bus fleet efficiency, lost indexation and low efficiency in Norway, high entry investment in Denmark Unrealized currency loss turned PBT into negative Refinancing plan presented for replacing the 130 MEUR HYB and preference shares Long term outlook unchanged 28