A monthly indicator of the business climate in the French service industry based on series of different frequencies
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1 A monthly indicator of the business climate in the French service industry based on series of different frequencies Philippe SCHERRER INSEE EU Workshop Business and consumer surveys
2 Page 2
3 Plan Confidence indicator Business climate indicator based on static factor model Need to developp a dynamic business climate indicator in the services sector Dynamic factor model Some results Page 3
4 Confidence indicator Confidence indicator calculated by European Commission is a simple arithmetic mean of balances: with value at time t of balance i. For example, the services confidence indicator published by EC is a simple arithmetic mean of the balances (%) for the questions on: Business situation, Recent evolution of demand, Expected evolution of demand. Page 4
5 Page 5 Services confidence indicator for France janv-88 janv-89 janv-90 janv-91 janv-92 janv-93 janv-94 janv-95 janv-96 janv-97 janv-98 janv-99 janv-00 janv-01 janv-02 janv-03 janv-04 janv-05 janv-06 Source : DG-ECFIN
6 Business climate indicator Can go further and calculate a weighted arithmetic mean of n balances: with value at time t of balance i, and weight of balance i. For example industrial business climate indicator published by EC is a weighted arithmetic mean of the balances (%) for the questions on: Recent production trends, Stocks, Order books Export order books, Production expectation. Page 6
7 Page 7 Industry business climate indicator Source : DG-ECFIN janv-85 janv-87 janv-89 janv-91 janv-93 janv-95 janv-97 janv-99 janv-01 janv-03 janv-05
8 based on static factor model Business climate indicator is based on a factorial analysis, which is a statistical method used to summarise a set of variables by constructing a few "common factors" related to all of the variables and "specific factors" related to each individual variable only. y = m + ΛF + t t u t Page 8
9 based on static factor model The model is written in matric form: y = ΛF + t t u t With standards assumptions one obtains estimate of the common factors, linear combinations of the observed variables: Fˆ = Aˆ t y t For example, the industry business climate indicator calculated by INSEE is as follow: F = 0,25 Past production + 0,16 Production expectation (CI) + 0,35 Order books (CI) + 0,16 Export order books - 0,07 Stocks (CI) +0,08 General industrial expectation (specific question in France) Page 9 (computed with SAS proc factor)
10 Need to develop a dynamic business climate indicator Need sometimes to go further and to calculate a time depending weighted arithmetic mean of n balances: with value at time t of balance i, and weight at time t of balance i. Why? Point 1: To raise some assumptions of the static model Are the static residuals white noises? Does the common factor present autocorrelation? Page 10
11 Need to develop a dynamic business climate indicator Point 2: To be able to use series of different frequencies or presenting frequency changes. Is the case of french services survey. As : - services sector is crucial for the short term economic analysis, Page 11 - services business survey conducted by INSEE plays a key role, a monthly synthetic indicator, using quaterly and monthly balances of opinion, has been built in order to get a better understanding of the business climate in the services sector.
12 Need to develop a dynamic business climate indicator Page 12
13 Need to develop a dynamic business climate indicator CAPA CAPRE PGSEC DEM REPA REPRE CAPA CAPRE PGSEC DEM REPA REPRE Page 13
14 Dynamic factor model Therefore, some additional assumptions (point 1): The model can then be rewriten in the following matric form (called state-space representation): Page 14
15 Dynamic factor model Dynamic factorial analysis is sufficiently flexible to take into account (point2): series of different frequencies: changes of frequency: from January 1988 with April 2000, quarterly series, need just to modify the model as following: Page 15
16 Estimation Page 16
17 Services dynamic business climate indicator versus services confidence indicator Page /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/1988 SDBCI SCI Source : INSEE : Services dynamic business climate indicator (SDBCI) DG-ECFIN : Services confidence indicator (SCI)
18 Some results Page 18
19 Some results Page 19
20 Conclusion Services dynamic business climate indicator is a relatively new synthetic indicator for economic outlook: - adaptative framework with different frequencies date, - forecasting services production and GDP, - additional information and complementarity with industry indicator for GDP forecast - shortcoming and perspectives. Page 20
21 A monthly indicator of the business climate in the French service industry based on series of different frequencies Philippe SCHERRER INSEE EU Workshop Business and consumer surveys
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