GDP-linked government bonds some simulations for EU countries
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1 GDP-linked government bonds some simulations for EU countries Nicolas Carnot and Stéphanie Pamies Sumner DG ECFIN, European Commission European Commission OECD workshop on GDP-linked government bonds Brussels, 17 January 2018 Views are those of the speakers only "Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved"
2 Context Some momentum for GDP-linked government bonds (GLBs) Academic research G20 Compass for GLBs Recognised need for fostering the resilience of the EU and the euro area Still high public debt in several EU countries Need to foster resilience to shocks particularly acute in the context of a monetary union
3 The paper GDP-linked bonds some simulations on EU countries, Carnot and Pamies Sumner, EC European Economy Discussion Paper, no. 073, December Exploring the potential macroeconomic benefits for EU countries building on the European Commission Debt Sustainability Monitor Discussing the issue of the risk premium
4 The interest growth rate differential is a major source of macroeconomic uncertainty 10 Interest growth rate differential (%) Germany France Italy United-Kingdom United-States Introduction of euro Source: AMECO, authors' calculations. The interest - growth rate differential is calculated based on the nominal long-term market interest rate on government bonds and the nominal GDP growth rate.
5 Even a limited share of GLBs could help reducing debt uncertainties Stochastic debt projections Italy (% of GDP) Stochastic debt projections Portugal (% of GDP) th percentile 90th percentile Median 10th percentile (GLBs) 90th percentile (GLBs) 10th percentile 90th percentile Median 10th percentile (GLBs) 90th percentile (GLBs) 140 Stochastic debt projections Ireland (% of GDP) 140 Stochastic debt projections Lithuania (% of GDP) th percentile 90th percentile Median 10th percentile (GLBs) 90th percentile (GLBs) 10th percentile 90th percentile Median 10th percentile (GLBs) 90th percentile (GLBs) Source: Debt Sustainability Monitor, authors' calculations. The fan charts report the debt to GDP paths corresponding to the 10 th, 50 th and 90 th percentiles of the distribution. The case with GLBs assumes that one-third of public debt is composed of GLBs.
6 Anchoring fiscal policies to more realistic long-term debt targets? Non-increasing debt caps (%) A more gradual debt reduction could be targeted Conventional bonds GDP-linked bonds Source: Debt Sustainability Monitor, authors' calculations. Non-increasing debt caps are defined as the level that should be targeted in 2030 to ensure that in case of adverse shocks, debt would not increase (as compared to now) with a 90% probability.
7 GLBs and the risk premium Liquidity and novelty premium Could be high but quickly decrease over time (market size) Based on current maturity of debt and projected financing needs, around 20 30% of EU debt stock could be in GLBs after two decades Growth risk premium Estimations vary a lot depending on model, assumptions, design, sample, etc. Simulations based on a conventional, 'prudent' value of 150 bps Default risk premium GLBs could result in a reduction of default risk premium, including on conventional bonds
8 Conventional bonds (80%) GLBs (20%) Total Conventional bonds (80%) GLBs (20%) Total Conventional bonds (80%) GLBs (20%) Total A reduction in the default premium could potentially neutralise the GDP-risk premium Change in the risk premium after the issuance of GLBs (bps.) Medium debt (60-90) High debt (90-120) Very high debt (> 120) Source: Authors' calculations GDP-risk Default premium Total premium
9 Conclusions A potentially interesting tool Contributes to stabilise debt path, and reduces the likelihood of sovereign debt crises Benefits particularly high in medium- to high-debt countries and volatile economies GDP-risk premium could erode expected benefits but spillover (reducing) effects on (all) bonds' default premium could somehow 'neutralise' this effect Part of overall strategy to reduce debt in line with EU fiscal rules However, such a debt-management tool cannot substitute for responsible fiscal policies
10 Thank you for your attention
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