The elephant in the room

Transcription

1 The elephant in the room or: debunking the EU Semester monster Constanze Adolf Brussels, 28 September 2016 EU Semester Alliance - Capacity Building workshop

2 Outline What is the European Semester? European Semester cycles 2015 and 2016 Entry points for meaningful stakeholder engagement 28 September

3 Green Budget Europe Founded 2008 Brussels-based EU wide experts platform Promoting Market-Based Instruments Our vision: An ecological and social market economy, in which "prices tell not only the economic, but also the ecological truth" (Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker)

4 TELL ME. what you tax and what you spend, and also what you don t tax and don t spend - and I ll tell you what your true objectives are!

5 What is the European Semester? Where are entry-points for CSO engagement? 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 5

6 The European Semester In place since 2010, the European Semester is an annual cycle of key monitoring of the EU s economic governance framework Aim: to coordinate the economic and fiscal policies between the European Commission and the EU Member States The European Semester is the main co-ordination tool / process for macroeconomic / fiscal surveillance and thematic surveillance Stability & Growth Pact & Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Europe 2020 strategy

7 Annual Growth Survey European Commission Sets out broad EU economic priorities for the year to come and for Europe 2020 to be taken into account by Member States when preparing national plans (November) National Action Member States Implement commonly agreed policies (July- November) Member States Endorse Country-Specific Recommendations (July) Country Reports European Commission Analyses fiscal and structural reform policies of every MS and monitors implementation (February) Country Specific Recommendations European Commission Provides recommendations (May) National Reform Programmes Member States Report on progress and how to implement the priorities set out in the Annual Growth Survey (April) 7

8 Stability and Growth Pact Main aim: Ensure sustainable public finances so as to contribute to the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) 2 main criteria: General Government Deficit: max 3% of GDP Gross Government dept: 60% of GDP

9 Macro-Economic Imbalance Procedure Surveillance mechanism that aims to identify potential risks prevent the emergence of harmful macroeconomic imbalances correct the imbalances that are already in place 2015: In-Depth Reviews for 18 MS: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, France, Croatia, Italy, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Slovenia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 9

10 Scoreboard of Indicators 2016 Auxiliary Indicators

11 Europe 2020 key priorities, EU overall headline targets & flagship initiatives

12 Hybrid legal architecture Stability and Growth Pact TFEU Art Six-Pack Europe 2020 headline targets Medium-term Budgetary Objectives (MTO) Fiscal surveillance Macroeconomic scoreboard Macroeconomic surveillance Integrated Guidelines Thematic surveillance National level Stability or Convergence Programmes National Reform Programmes EU level Annual Growth Survey Country Specific Recommendations

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14 The Juncker Semester : Streamlining Energy Energy Union Climate? Less CSRs in line with Juncker s 10 priorities CSRs need to deliver within 18 month Eurozone CSRs in November (together with AGS)

15 European Semester cycles 2015 and 2016 Assessment from a CSO perspective: 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 15

16 2016 Annual Growth Survey The AGS launches the yearly European Semester cycle in November The AGS sets out broad EU economic priorities for the year to come to be taken into account by Member States when preparing national plans 16

17 Climate and Energy in Annual Growth Surveys Environmentally Harmful Subsidies Environmentally Tax Reform Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency source: European Commission Annual Growth Surveys

18 2015 and 2016 Country Reports of the EC source: European Commission, DG Environment (2015 and 2016) Country Reports

19 Country-Specific Recommendations Energy Implement a tax shift / green taxes Remove / reduce environmentally harmful subsidies source: GBE analysis on the basis of the CSRs CZ, ES, IE, HU, IT, LI, LU, LV BE, FR, IT 1 LU BE, CZ, PL, UK 1 LV 0 0

20 Implementation of Country Specific Recommendations Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Implementation of Climate/Energy-CSRs source: European Parliament (2015). Country Specific Recommendations ( ) under MIP. source: European Parliament (2014). A "traffic-light approach" to the implementation of the 2011 and 2012 Country Specific Recommendations (CSRs) and European Parliament (2014). Country Specific Recommendations for 2013 and A comparison and an overview of implementation. 20

21 source: GBE analysis on the basis of the CSRs Examples of incoherence/discontinuity by EU Commission 2013 Assessment 2014 Finland CSR 5: Improve overall energy efficiency Substantial progress No assessment by EU Com as to whether the relevant work is partially or fully complete Lithuania CSR 6: step up measures to improve the energy efficiency of buildings Some progress CSR 6: step up measures to improve the energy efficiency of buildings Slovakia CSR 5: Improve energy efficiency in particular in buildings and industry. Some progress As with the first e.g., the issue is no longer addressed 21

22 Will the European Semester gain a wider role? I Circular Economy Package (COM/2015/614) Resource productivity increase to 30% by 2030 could create over two million jobs Overall savings potential of 630 billion per year for European industry Potential GDP boost by up to 3,9% A reduction of total annual GHG emissions by 2.4% source: EC Communication Towards a circular economy: A zero waste programme for Europe,(COM(2014) 398 final/2) 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 22

23 Will the European Semester gain a wider role? II 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE Paris Agreement Art 2: Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development Art 4: Notify the UNFCCC of mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies not later than

24 Macroeconomic Imbalance Climate, environmental, social and energy goals 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 24

25 Will the European Semester gain a wider role? GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 25

26 Thank you for your attention! Constanze Adolf Follow us on 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 26

27 Green Budget Europe s activities Developing alternative CSRs and policy briefings Continuous capacity building among members and partners Organising conferences in Member States and Brussels Lobby European Commission (Sec Gen, Juncker Cabinet and VP Cabinets, DG ECFIN, ENVI and CLIMATE), Hearings (EP), ESOs Member of European Commission Experts Group Greening the European Semester Monthly NGO Semester Roundtables (EEB, WWF, CEE Bankwatch, CAN, HEAL) in Brussels EU Alliance for a democratic, social and sustainable European Semester (semesteralliance.net) Energy Union design options

28 Energy Union governance design proposal NECPs Planning and reporting templates need to be legally binding Overall high-level governance Governance guided by NECP s and indicators rooted in law A sectoral planning and reporting framework with legally binding templates Long-term planning to 2050 in line with Paris Agreement Active involvement of key stakeholders at every level A carbon pricing element to ensure investor certainty Import dependence Energy/carbon pricing Only binding target at EU level Binding EU and MS targets Only binding target at EU level 28

29 Country Reports 2016 and CSR 2016 per MS 28 September 2016 GREEN BUDGET EUROPE 29